Coronavirus outbreak

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John Madejski's Wallet
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by John Madejski's Wallet » 26 Mar 2020 17:31

Its because those two stats don't include the people who have yet to have an outcome

Plus many countries (UK and US) aren't testing properly anymore, so that stat is even more pointless.

We will only know what the CFR is when the seroepidemiology studies are done to get data on the spread of community infection, and even then it won't be accurate until a few years after the epidemic has been dealt with

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by John Madejski's Wallet » 26 Mar 2020 17:32

Anyone care to place a bet that the actual death rate for the total population falls in the UK this year?

I think it will

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by andrew1957 » 26 Mar 2020 17:39

krapmle
Jagermesiter1871
krapmle
There are obviously some problematic areas but don't be fooled in to thinking we are immune.
Have you ever once in your life even checked the data?


This is just a bizarre logic. What are we even talking about now?


we are talking about you consistently spouting un- researched nonsense.
educate yourself.

the only reason most of you are even taking a stance is because you are shit scared of it hitting you directly.
once it disappears the other deaths I mentioned will continue and you will all ignore it because its far away out of sight.

That is my point, not the economy, not do nothing about corona but the fact that millions of others will continue to die needlessly once this is over and you all go back to your me, me, me lives.


The truth is that hundreds of thousands of children die every year in poor countries from easily preventable diseases and no one gives a shit. But a few old rich people dying in rich countries and we shut down the global economy. Interesting..........

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 26 Mar 2020 18:00

John Madejski's Wallet Its because those two stats don't include the people who have yet to have an outcome

Plus many countries (UK and US) aren't testing properly anymore, so that stat is even more pointless.

We will only know what the CFR is when the seroepidemiology studies are done to get data on the spread of community infection, and even then it won't be accurate until a few years after the epidemic has been dealt with



I think you miss my point JMW. I am only talking about official confirmed cases (mostly hospital cases).

The stats seem clear. This many people have recovered, this many people have died. What comes after is irrelevant. It seems, if I read the stats correctly, that 5 get better and one dies (out of every six so far confirmed with Coronavirus. It doesn't matter whether these are people already dying, or people like Prince Charles with mild symptoms.

Confirmed, 1 in 6 chance of dying. (Based on all the reported confirmed cases)

Of course, some time, years down the line probably, we will find that the confirmed cases represent a tenth of all cases, or a twentieth, or a fiftieth, or a hundredth. That will not change the fact that (up to now at least) 1 in 6 of confirmed cases were dying at point in time X.

To repeat, I KNOW that 16% is not the population rate! That would mean (if everyone got it) 11 Million in the UK dying! If confirmed turn out to be 1 in 10 of all cases (one, so far, common expert estimate) that would mean (if everyone got it) 1.1 million. If confirmed cases are outnumbered 100-1 that still means 110,000 UK dead. To approach "only" 20,000 dead there needs to be 510 or so cases never detected for every confirmed case.

"Plus many countries (UK and US) aren't testing properly anymore, so that stat is even more pointless."

Disagree. We have a population of confirmed cases and from that population it appears 16% die. The fact that these are more severe cases seems to be irrelevant. I don't particularly care if the true infection rate is 10 times, 50 times, 100 times or 1,000 times (though obviously the higher that number the better)... what I care about are actual deaths, and I suspect that at least 95% of people dying via Covid-19 are being recorded as having had the disease.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 26 Mar 2020 18:01

andrew1957
krapmle
Jagermesiter1871
This is just a bizarre logic. What are we even talking about now?


we are talking about you consistently spouting un- researched nonsense.
educate yourself.

the only reason most of you are even taking a stance is because you are shit scared of it hitting you directly.
once it disappears the other deaths I mentioned will continue and you will all ignore it because its far away out of sight.

That is my point, not the economy, not do nothing about corona but the fact that millions of others will continue to die needlessly once this is over and you all go back to your me, me, me lives.


The truth is that hundreds of thousands of children die every year in poor countries from easily preventable diseases and no one gives a shit. But a few old rich people dying in rich countries and we shut down the global economy. Interesting..........


This is just a completely side tracked argument - classic whataboutism. It has no relevance to the virus, its spread, how fatal it is.

Why do we waste billions on cancer treatment in this country? Is it really worth all the money spent on research and development when there's millions of children dying from preventable diseases abroad? Just to save some privileged westerners.


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 26 Mar 2020 18:03

John Madejski's Wallet Anyone care to place a bet that the actual death rate for the total population falls in the UK this year?

I think it will


You've cracked the longevity conundrum!!!

Traffic mortalities down by 99%, no plane crashes, zero "Claphams", no street knifings, 99% reduction in drownings, no-one lost on the moors or falling off mountains, 80% reduction in at-work fatalities, less ordinary flu, less STDs contracted by sex with strangers...

Looking good!


Boring, but good

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Zip » 26 Mar 2020 18:05

andrew1957
krapmle
Jagermesiter1871
This is just a bizarre logic. What are we even talking about now?


we are talking about you consistently spouting un- researched nonsense.
educate yourself.

the only reason most of you are even taking a stance is because you are shit scared of it hitting you directly.
once it disappears the other deaths I mentioned will continue and you will all ignore it because its far away out of sight.

That is my point, not the economy, not do nothing about corona but the fact that millions of others will continue to die needlessly once this is over and you all go back to your me, me, me lives.


The truth is that hundreds of thousands of children die every year in poor countries from easily preventable diseases and no one gives a shit. But a few old rich people dying in rich countries and we shut down the global economy. Interesting..........



Yep this is true.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 26 Mar 2020 18:05

Actually, makes you wonder about drug addicts and suppliers...

Are suppliers vital workers?

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 26 Mar 2020 18:21

Zip
andrew1957
krapmle
we are talking about you consistently spouting un- researched nonsense.
educate yourself.

the only reason most of you are even taking a stance is because you are shit scared of it hitting you directly.
once it disappears the other deaths I mentioned will continue and you will all ignore it because its far away out of sight.

That is my point, not the economy, not do nothing about corona but the fact that millions of others will continue to die needlessly once this is over and you all go back to your me, me, me lives.


The truth is that hundreds of thousands of children die every year in poor countries from easily preventable diseases and no one gives a shit. But a few old rich people dying in rich countries and we shut down the global economy. Interesting..........



Yep this is true.


It might be true (by one interpretation) but that doesn't mean "everybody" thinks like that or everybody is selfish, or even 80% or 95%.

A governments first priority is the safety and health of its population. I think the UK gives 0.7% (13.4 Billion in 2016) of its GDP each and every year to Overseas Aid. Spending on the NHS since 1950 has slowly risen from 3% to somewhere between 7% and 8% (and of course many also spend money on private health.

UK Charities raise and spend EIGHTY Billion a year. I know there are arguments that they are wasteful and/ot the Chief Execs get paid too much, but that doesn't take away from the fact that the UK Public raises about 94 Billion a year for aid. The NHS spend was 129 Billion in 2018-19. To think we are spending 2/3 of the NHS amount on aid isn't shabby.


if all the major "first world" countries are spending .7% that is lot of money, an awful lot of money. Add to that Red Cross, Save the Children, Medicine Sans Frontieres etc

The scale of the problems overseas are huge. Poor infrastructure, lack of education, civil wars, tribal rivalry, Boko Haram, ISIS, corruption in power, dictatorships. It's a long, slow haul.

It would be interesting to see a learned article that could estimate exactly what it would take to guarantee water to the world, get rid of the major illnesses etc. I think the figure would be staggering, and even with the money (with no "leakage") I suspect the timeline would be 50-100 years at best


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Royals and Racers » 26 Mar 2020 18:29

578 UK coronavirus deaths now- a rise of 113 in the last 24 hours(5pm to 5pm) I think that is 101in England
Last edited by Royals and Racers on 26 Mar 2020 18:32, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 26 Mar 2020 18:31

At 10:39 on March 11th (2.5 months) Confirmed Cases were 126,660 Worldwide

Monday, Tuesday Wednesday this week (3 days) added 135,015 Cases

Adding today (which may hit over 50,000* the way it's going) 43,094 at 17:46 takes that total to 178,109


*Already 52,000 (18:49)
Last edited by Snowball on 26 Mar 2020 18:49, edited 1 time in total.

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John Madejski's Wallet
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by John Madejski's Wallet » 26 Mar 2020 18:37

Snowball "Plus many countries (UK and US) aren't testing properly anymore, so that stat is even more pointless."

Disagree. We have a population of confirmed cases and from that population it appears 16% die. The fact that these are more severe cases seems to be irrelevant. I don't particularly care if the true infection rate is 10 times, 50 times, 100 times or 1,000 times (though obviously the higher that number the better)... what I care about are actual deaths, and I suspect that at least 95% of people dying via Covid-19 are being recorded as having had the disease.
The stats and the testing are biased, hence why no-one is looking at them.

The only thing that is certain is that if you have to go into hospital, there's a good chance you're coming out feet first

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 26 Mar 2020 18:50

John Madejski's Wallet
Snowball "Plus many countries (UK and US) aren't testing properly anymore, so that stat is even more pointless."

Disagree. We have a population of confirmed cases and from that population it appears 16% die. The fact that these are more severe cases seems to be irrelevant. I don't particularly care if the true infection rate is 10 times, 50 times, 100 times or 1,000 times (though obviously the higher that number the better)... what I care about are actual deaths, and I suspect that at least 95% of people dying via Covid-19 are being recorded as having had the disease.
The stats and the testing are biased, hence why no-one is looking at them.

The only thing that is certain is that if you have to go into hospital, there's a good chance you're coming out feet first[/quote]

Well, that is exactly what I am saying. It's a real measure 1 in 6 and getting slightly worse


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Ascotexgunner » 26 Mar 2020 18:54

Sutekh All football below the National Leagues has been ended with the season “expunged”. Might other leagues around the world follow.....?


Could be the start.
They will wait til the last minute for the EFL and EPL no doubt but If we end up in Mid July there is no way they can shoe horn a new season in.....you would go straight into a new season with no break.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by tmesis » 26 Mar 2020 18:55

andrew1957
krapmle
Jagermesiter1871
This is just a bizarre logic. What are we even talking about now?


we are talking about you consistently spouting un- researched nonsense.
educate yourself.

the only reason most of you are even taking a stance is because you are shit scared of it hitting you directly.
once it disappears the other deaths I mentioned will continue and you will all ignore it because its far away out of sight.

That is my point, not the economy, not do nothing about corona but the fact that millions of others will continue to die needlessly once this is over and you all go back to your me, me, me lives.


The truth is that hundreds of thousands of children die every year in poor countries from easily preventable diseases and no one gives a shit. But a few old rich people dying in rich countries and we shut down the global economy. Interesting..........

Poor countries started reacting to this even when we thought it was just something happening in Asia.

Poor countries around the world are having lockdowns of their own, that have nothing to do with rich countries.

And let's face facts, governments around the world only act when it impacts their country. That's the same in the richest and poorest nations.


The reason the reaction has been so huge from this is its potential to kill millions if left to spread unchecked. Far more will die if it's not managed, even if the same number get infected overall, because the amount that health services are overwhelmed will directly impact the number who can be adequately treated, which will directly impact on the number who will die.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 26 Mar 2020 19:04

tmesis
andrew1957
krapmle
we are talking about you consistently spouting un- researched nonsense.
educate yourself.

the only reason most of you are even taking a stance is because you are shit scared of it hitting you directly.
once it disappears the other deaths I mentioned will continue and you will all ignore it because its far away out of sight.

That is my point, not the economy, not do nothing about corona but the fact that millions of others will continue to die needlessly once this is over and you all go back to your me, me, me lives.


The truth is that hundreds of thousands of children die every year in poor countries from easily preventable diseases and no one gives a shit. But a few old rich people dying in rich countries and we shut down the global economy. Interesting..........

Poor countries started reacting to this even when we thought it was just something happening in Asia.

Poor countries around the world are having lockdowns of their own, that have nothing to do with rich countries.

And let's face facts, governments around the world only act when it impacts their country. That's the same in the richest and poorest nations.


The reason the reaction has been so huge from this is its potential to kill millions if left to spread unchecked. Far more will die if it's not managed, even if the same number get infected overall, because the amount that health services are overwhelmed will directly impact the number who can be adequately treated, which will directly impact on the number who will die.


Well Said

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 26 Mar 2020 19:10

"If I Go Into Hospital as a Confirmed Case"

Columns L-R are Confirmed Cases, Recovered, Dead, Percentage Dead (Closed Cases)

Some of the reporting looks decidedly iffy. Is Holland REALLY saying only 3 people have recovered (I hope not!) and the UK number for recovery is very low. One possibility is people may be discharged but the "recovered" box may only be ticked after (say) 21 or 28 days.

But Switzerland, Italy, Spain, USA, Austria, France, Belgium and Iran are returning confirmed-case death-rates above 16%

Italy and Spain have "matured" and those stats look horrible

07,431 --- 00,003 --- 0,434 --- 99.31% --- Holland
09,849 --- 00,135 --- 0,578 --- 81.07% --- UK

11,712 --- 00,131 --- 0,191 --- 59.32% --- Switzerland
80,539 --- 10,361 --- 8,215 --- 44.22% --- Italy
56,197 --- 07,015 --- 4,145 --- 37.14% --- Spain
75,665 --- 01,863 --- 1,100 --- 37.12% --- USA
06,703 --- 00,112 --- 0,049 --- 30.43% --- Austria
25,233 --- 03,900 --- 1,331 --- 25.44% --- France
06,235 --- 00,675 --- 0,220 --- 24.58% --- Belgium
29,406 --- 10,457 --- 2,234 --- 17.60% --- Iran

43,646 --- 05,673 --- 0,239 --- 04.04% --- Germany
09,241 --- 04,144 --- 0,131 --- 03.06% --- S Korea


BTW Italy will pass China tomorrow (Confirmed Cases) and Spain probably by Sunday or Monday.

Not using China's numbers because they look seriously fudged

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by windermereROYAL » 26 Mar 2020 19:14

Why don`t people fecking listen? I`ve ventured out once in the last week, and that was only to do some shopping, but looking around it`s the `it can`t happen to me` ideology.
Get a grip you fecking melts, this is as serious as anything any of us will ever face in our entires lives.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 26 Mar 2020 19:20

windermereROYAL Why don`t people fecking listen? I`ve ventured out once in the last week, and that was only to do some shopping, but looking around it`s the `it can`t happen to me` ideology.
Get a grip you fecking melts, this is as serious as anything any of us will ever face in our entires lives.


Agreed. The drunk Brits on the beach singing "We got the virus" UGH!

Today, Yesterday, Tuesday: Deaths

2,430
2,375
2,417

7,222 Total

The 9-Month (270 Days) SARS-1 Pandemic killed 770.

In three days, (less 5 hours) SARS-2 (Covid-19) has killed 9.4 times that total. That is, ATM, Covid-19 is 281 times as virulent as SARS-1

Or in one day, one ninetieth of the duration of SARS-1, Covid-19 has killed 3 times as many (x270)

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Emmer Green Royal » 26 Mar 2020 19:30

[quote="Snowball"]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Coronavirus Cases:
494,695
Deaths:
[b]22,290------------16%[/b]
Recovered:
119,785 ----------84%
CASES WHICH HAVE HAD AN OUTCOME 142,075
119,785 (84%) Recovered / Discharged
[b]22,290 (16%) Deaths[/b]

Perhaps governments and journalists are deliberately not pointing at this awful stat.

I don't see how I can be mis-reading this, but I hope I am.[/quote]

All coronvirus stats are very misleading because no-one has any idea how many cases there actually are. Most countries, including the UK, are doing very little testing.

Until you have tested a very large random sample (and not just people who turn up at hospital with a cough) you have no idea what the mortality rate really is.

According to the organisation European Monitoring of Excess Mortality for Public Health Action (who knew that such an organisation existed?) "Pooled estimates of all-cause mortality show normal expected levels of mortality in the participating countries." https://www.euromomo.eu

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