Back From The Game - Ipswich Town

[Ian Royal]

They aren't a good indication at all. Just because we've won our last 3 home games, doesn't mean we are going to win the next one. What you're basically saying is that form tables can predict the future...

No. Form tables give you a good picture of how well teams have been performing recently, which allows you to make informed guesses about how they are likely to perform in the near future. Providing you don't use them blindly without consideration of other factors and believe that the conclusions you draw will always be right.

[TFF]

Yes TFF it IS relevant.

You suggest we were lucky (or Ipswich were UNlucky)

But 4 clean sheets from 5 suggests the defence are doing their job and it's NOT luck.

No, the contention was that in the last few minutes our defence was outstanding. I countered that we were a bit of a shambles and the defending was somewhat desperate.

We were lucky to hang on to our lead.

I'm pretty sure I wasn't inferring we were lucky throughout the game or, indeed, in three of our four other games.

[Millsy]

LOL @ dunces who get wound up by stats and numbers.

[Snowball]

They aren't a good indication at all. Just because we've won our last 3 home games, doesn't mean we are going to win the next one. What you're basically saying is that form tables can predict the future...

NOPE. Form tables merely show how a team is currently playing.

We CAN make predictions

Based on recent results
Quality of teams played while getting those results
Quality of teams due to be played.


But we don't HAVE to. But some of us have common-sense. For example, "I think QPR are a good
side and have a very good chance of winning the championship..."


WHY? Cos they have W7 D2 and scored 20-2. SEE? That's RECENT FORM and I'm using it to suggest they are a very good team

They might have just won six on the trot, against the bottom 6
or lost six games on the trot against the top six

But if they've just thumped all of the top six 3-0, then chances are they are a top-top side



Do you SERIOUSLY believe that a side that has just won six on the trot, conceding no goals
versus a side that's just LOST six on the trot, scoring no goals... but next game they are
EQUALLY likely to win/draw/lose?

Do they breathe oxygen on your planet?

[Snowball]

No, the contention was that in the last few minutes our defence was outstanding. I countered that we were a bit of a shambles and the defending was somewhat desperate.

We were lucky to hang on to our lead.

ACCORDING TO YOU. I DISAGREE.

I don't care whether you perceive the defending as desperate or all-hands-to-the-pumps
or "committed"... what matters is DID WE STOP THEM SCORING?

I'm pretty sure I wasn't inferring we were lucky throughout the game or, indeed, in three of our four other games.

We weren't "lucky" in that last ten minutes either. The players did what they are paid to do.

[Pseud O'Nym]

On the edge of my seat all game. Forgot to breathe in injury time. We all sang "same old Keano, dirty, dirty bastard". What more to say?

[Hoop Blah]

Form tables merely show how a team is currently playing.

No, it only shows a record of the results they've been achieving, not how they've been playing. The two are quite often different.

Even you came close to realising that stats don't often bear much relation to footballing reality the other week when you started the 'the defence' thread. It seems like you've fallen off the wagon and hit the stats again!

[Ryn]

Do you SERIOUSLY believe that a side that has just won six on the trot, conceding no goals
versus a side that's just LOST six on the trot, scoring no goals... but next game they are
EQUALLY likely to win/draw/lose?

Results like that happen all the time in football!

If they didn't we would all have won the football pools by now and retired.

We wouldn't have 'shock' cup results, because statistically the Premiership sides should always beat the League 2 efforts.

We wouldn't have games like the Leeds Vs Preston on Tuesday, because statistically teams that are 4-1 down after 40 minutes (and a really not on form in that game!) shouldn't then win the game 4-6 on a Tuesday night.

On form, Cardiff should have tanked Palace Tuesday but they could only manage a 0-0 draw.

Actually football would be pretty effing dull if it always followed form and statistics. As has been said before, football is played on grass, not on paper.

[Elm Park Old Boy]

One thing that struck me - last two games have been won with four goals scored while we had ten men.

So is the answer the Sig's absence to play 4-4-1?

[Royal With Cheese]

One final observation......what the hell are we going to do about corners? 28 corners in the last 2 games and (other than the obviousl last night which was in no way down to the quality of the corner which was described as scuffed) we don't look close to getting on the end of any of them. I had to LOL at Harte being in The TOTW as his delivery had been poor against Bransley before his free kick. Again last night it wasn't great.

Don't know what the answer is but it needs work on the training ground I think. Come on McD you seem to be brilliant at everything else so why not scoring from corners!!!

We are scoring one goal every 20 corners, almost exactly the average for corners per goal in Reading games (18.5)
and much better than the official statistic posted from a study of 550 or so corners.

Fact is less than 5% of corners produce a goal (on average)

I don;t think it's the actual scoring that's concerning anyone snowball, its the constant hitting the first defender at the near post.

Have you any stats on corners to clear cut chances created? That would probably be more appropriate.

[Royal With Cheese]

We were lucky to hang on to our lead.

I didn't see anything in the last 10 minutes that particularly bothered me. I think Fed had one bundled clearance but other than that Ipswich didn't have a shot on target.

[West Stand Man]

They aren't a good indication at all. Just because we've won our last 3 home games, doesn't mean we are going to win the next one. [b]What you're basically saying is that form tables can predict the future[/b]...

-- er no! Read what I said again. I quite specifically say that they are lagging indicators not leading ones. ie they tell you a pattern to what has happened not what is about to happen. That was precisely my point. Some stats can predict the future with some accuracy but the randomness of football performance does not lend itself well to leading indications.

[Royal With Cheese]

Only the clinically insane would claim that they can accurately predict any result in the Championsip at the moment.

[Vision]

We wont last the pace, ITFC. Our squad is wafer thin and it wont take more than an injury or two and the odd suspension to derail us, but a top ten finish would be good for me with how keen the chairman is to sell every asset here.

We've had injuries since the 1st ball was kicked yet currently find ourselves in 6th

We competed pretty well against a highly fancied Ipswich team despite missing 2 first team regulars through injury and 2 through suspension. We even won the game after our captain was sent off and our best player removed as an injury precaution. I'm not entirely convinced about the "wafer thin" squad argument to be honest especially when you look at how players such as Cummings and Robson-Kanu have stepped up recently.

As someone else pointed out I'm not convinced we've enough goals in us to last the pace (unless we can get Hunt back to his best) and I think the fixture list has probably been relatively easy on us so far but the squad in general is a lot stronger than its given credit for in my opinion.

[Snowball]

Do you SERIOUSLY believe that a side that has just won six on the trot, conceding no goals
versus a side that's just LOST six on the trot, scoring no goals... but next game they are
EQUALLY likely to win/draw/lose?

Results like that happen all the time in football!

NO THEY DO NOT. THEY HAPPEN OCCASIONALLY

[Ryn]

It can't be that occasional, or all the bookies would be out of business pretty oxf*rd quickly.

[Snowball]

So in a given season, Man U or Chelsea at home to some bottom six side
how often do they LOSE such a game. Very rarely.

[brendywendy]

We wont last the pace, ITFC. Our squad is wafer thin and it wont take more than an injury or two and the odd suspension to derail us, but a top ten finish would be good for me with how keen the chairman is to sell every asset here.

We've had injuries since the 1st ball was kicked yet currently find ourselves in 6th

We competed pretty well against a highly fancied Ipswich team despite missing 2 first team regulars through injury and 2 through suspension. We even won the game after our captain was sent off and our best player removed as an injury precaution. I'm not entirely convinced about the "wafer thin" squad argument to be honest especially when you look at how players such as Cummings and Robson-Kanu have stepped up recently.

As someone else pointed out I'm not convinced we've enough goals in us to last the pace (unless we can get Hunt back to his best) and I think the fixture list has probably been relatively easy on us so far but the squad in general is a lot stronger than its given credit for in my opinion.

this all seems to be utterly correct, carry on.

[Ryn]

So in a given season, Man U or Chelsea at home to some bottom six side
how often do they LOSE such a game. Very rarely.

Sides promoted from the Championship are capable of beating the big sides at home in the Premiership, as we have proven ourselves. We were still a 'bottom six' side though as that was were we were predicted to finish.

If you are talking about teams occupying league positions (which is of course the best indicator of a season's form), there are results up and down the leagues every week which don't work out as they 'should' do.

Arsenal Vs West Brom and Norwich Vs Hull come straight to mind from last weekend. If I looked for some results on teh internets I'm sure I could find more examples where 'form' teams have been beaten at home by bottom six sides.

Bookies would have made a mint on the Arsenal game.

[FiNeRaIn]

Another set of meaning less stats from SnowbaLOLLOL

God....

"This post was made by Snowball who is currently on your ignore list. Display this post." x6 on that occasion because of his spam. Jesus.