Opposition fans back from the game

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TiagoIlori
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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by TiagoIlori » 29 Oct 2020 15:45

From Coventry’s forum

This is exactly the type of game we could win when it would be so unexpected we are cov.

I can't see how reading have gone from fighting relegation to all of a sudden top of the table I don't think they will be up there at the end of the season false position for me.


oxf*rd me people are lazy. We have not been worried about relegation since October last year and in January we had hopes for a promotion push, unfortunately couldn’t sustain due to our terrible home form.

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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by Kitsondinho » 29 Oct 2020 15:55

SWLR
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Snowflake Royal I find it amusing that people look at a statistical prediction tool that says the team clear at the top of the table should be mid-table and say "The table is wrong, they're lucky and will fall away" rather than "the statistical model isn't very good is it"

Indeed.
Under the xG model
Greece don’t win Euro 2004
Wigan don’t win FA Cup in 2013
Leicester don’t win PL in 2016
Portugal don’t win Euro 2016
and so on...
It is just a mathematical variation of ‘on paper, their squad is the strongest in the league.’


or "to good to go down"

Agreed.

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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by Kitsondinho » 29 Oct 2020 15:57

TiagoIlori From Coventry’s forum

This is exactly the type of game we could win when it would be so unexpected we are cov.

I can't see how reading have gone from fighting relegation to all of a sudden top of the table I don't think they will be up there at the end of the season false position for me.


oxf*rd me people are lazy. We have not been worried about relegation since October last year and in January we had hopes for a promotion push, unfortunately couldn’t sustain due to our terrible home form.

Be so us to lose though! We all know it!!

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From Despair To Where?
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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by From Despair To Where? » 29 Oct 2020 16:12

TiagoIlori From Coventry’s forum

This is exactly the type of game we could win when it would be so unexpected we are cov.

I can't see how reading have gone from fighting relegation to all of a sudden top of the table I don't think they will be up there at the end of the season false position for me.


oxf*rd me people are lazy. We have not been worried about relegation since October last year and in January we had hopes for a promotion push, unfortunately couldn’t sustain due to our terrible home form.


To be fair, there's also a fair few comments like this:

Data this data that analytics this. Bollocks. Reading are clearly a very good team and we'll do well to get anything from this game.

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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by NewCorkSeth » 29 Oct 2020 19:18

Kitsondinho
Snowflake Royal I find it amusing that people look at a statistical prediction tool that says the team clear at the top of the table should be mid-table and say "The table is wrong, they're lucky and will fall away" rather than "the statistical model isn't very good is it"

Indeed.
Under the xG model
Greece don’t win Euro 2004
Wigan don’t win FA Cup in 2013
Leicester don’t win PL in 2016
Portugal don’t win Euro 2016
and so on...
It is just a mathematical variation of ‘on paper, their squad is the strongest in the league.’

On the xG model Liverpool would have finished last season with 26 points less. It doesn't account for how good goalkeepers are and Rafael is pulling off saves against shots with high xG.


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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by Kitsondinho » 29 Oct 2020 19:24

NewCorkSeth
Kitsondinho
Snowflake Royal I find it amusing that people look at a statistical prediction tool that says the team clear at the top of the table should be mid-table and say "The table is wrong, they're lucky and will fall away" rather than "the statistical model isn't very good is it"

Indeed.
Under the xG model
Greece don’t win Euro 2004
Wigan don’t win FA Cup in 2013
Leicester don’t win PL in 2016
Portugal don’t win Euro 2016
and so on...
It is just a mathematical variation of ‘on paper, their squad is the strongest in the league.’

On the xG model Liverpool would have finished last season with 26 points less. It doesn't account for how good goalkeepers are and Rafael is pulling off saves against shots with high xG.

Almost like it is a stat that can inform discussion rather than be the settling factor...

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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by Snowflake Royal » 29 Oct 2020 19:28

It's almost like teams that are excelling at their level tend to be unusually clinical and resilient.

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genome
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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by genome » 29 Oct 2020 19:52

Kitsondinho
NewCorkSeth
Kitsondinho Indeed.
Under the xG model
Greece don’t win Euro 2004
Wigan don’t win FA Cup in 2013
Leicester don’t win PL in 2016
Portugal don’t win Euro 2016
and so on...
It is just a mathematical variation of ‘on paper, their squad is the strongest in the league.’

On the xG model Liverpool would have finished last season with 26 points less. It doesn't account for how good goalkeepers are and Rafael is pulling off saves against shots with high xG.

Almost like it is a stat that can inform discussion rather than be the settling factor...


Then why do all these podcasts and pundits use it as such?

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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by Kitsondinho » 29 Oct 2020 19:55

genome
Kitsondinho
NewCorkSeth On the xG model Liverpool would have finished last season with 26 points less. It doesn't account for how good goalkeepers are and Rafael is pulling off saves against shots with high xG.

Almost like it is a stat that can inform discussion rather than be the settling factor...


Then why do all these podcasts and pundits use it as such?

I blame Moneyball.


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Sutekh
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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by Sutekh » 29 Oct 2020 20:06

Kitsondinho
NewCorkSeth
Kitsondinho Indeed.
Under the xG model
Greece don’t win Euro 2004
Wigan don’t win FA Cup in 2013
Leicester don’t win PL in 2016
Portugal don’t win Euro 2016
and so on...
It is just a mathematical variation of ‘on paper, their squad is the strongest in the league.’

On the xG model Liverpool would have finished last season with 26 points less. It doesn't account for how good goalkeepers are and Rafael is pulling off saves against shots with high xG.

Almost like it is a stat that can inform discussion rather than be the settling factor...


Can we have a separate thread solely for discussing these irrelevant/misleading statistics please.

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NewCorkSeth
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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by NewCorkSeth » 29 Oct 2020 20:12

genome
Kitsondinho
NewCorkSeth On the xG model Liverpool would have finished last season with 26 points less. It doesn't account for how good goalkeepers are and Rafael is pulling off saves against shots with high xG.

Almost like it is a stat that can inform discussion rather than be the settling factor...


Then why do all these podcasts and pundits use it as such?

Because it can be helpful to analyse predicted performances with a large sample size. The Second Tier Podcast guy isn't using it correctly.

The only statistical worry is our shot to goal ratio. Its 10% higher than the average and is truly mind blowing.

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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by Chameleon » 29 Oct 2020 20:15

genome
Kitsondinho
NewCorkSeth On the xG model Liverpool would have finished last season with 26 points less. It doesn't account for how good goalkeepers are and Rafael is pulling off saves against shots with high xG.

Almost like it is a stat that can inform discussion rather than be the settling factor...


Then why do all these podcasts and pundits use it as such?


Because it's far quicker to look at the scoreline and xG and use it to sound informed to the layman. It's effectively laziness.

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SouthDownsRoyal
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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by SouthDownsRoyal » 29 Oct 2020 20:18

Pepe the Horseman Courtesy of @shakefon on twitter.



Cool


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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by Snowflake Royal » 30 Oct 2020 08:13

Chameleon
genome
Kitsondinho Almost like it is a stat that can inform discussion rather than be the settling factor...


Then why do all these podcasts and pundits use it as such?


Because it's far quicker to look at the scoreline and xG and use it to sound informed to the layman. It's effectively laziness.

Yep, why watch games or study players and teams when you can watch a few highlights and look at the xgoals table in a fraction of the time to give you content for your vlogging career reaching out to other clueless idiots.

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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by NewCorkSeth » 30 Oct 2020 08:24

Snowflake Royal
Chameleon
genome
Then why do all these podcasts and pundits use it as such?


Because it's far quicker to look at the scoreline and xG and use it to sound informed to the layman. It's effectively laziness.

Yep, why watch games or study players and teams when you can watch a few highlights and look at the xgoals table in a fraction of the time to give you content for your vlogging career reaching out to other clueless idiots.

I quite enjoy the second tier podcast but you can tell that he does exactly what you just described. In almost every game so far he has said the other team was better. The only people saying that about a lot of the games are people who looked at the stats and delusional fans who are in denial.

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genome
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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by genome » 30 Oct 2020 09:35

Tom McIntyre tweeted this :lol:



Deleted now

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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by NewCorkSeth » 30 Oct 2020 09:39

genome Tom McIntyre tweeted this :lol:



Deleted now

He deleted it within seconds of posting it. He's some man for one man.

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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by WestYorksRoyal » 30 Oct 2020 10:00

NewCorkSeth
Snowflake Royal
Chameleon
Because it's far quicker to look at the scoreline and xG and use it to sound informed to the layman. It's effectively laziness.

Yep, why watch games or study players and teams when you can watch a few highlights and look at the xgoals table in a fraction of the time to give you content for your vlogging career reaching out to other clueless idiots.

I quite enjoy the second tier podcast but you can tell that he does exactly what you just described. In almost every game so far he has said the other team was better. The only people saying that about a lot of the games are people who looked at the stats and delusional fans who are in denial.

His latest opinion is that Blackburn were comfortably the better team and could have thrashed us on another night.

I thought he kind of had a point after ugly wins against Wycombe and Rotherham and edging a tight contest against Watford. But his latest comments are an utter delusion to back up an opinion he clearly has no intention of changing whatever the evidence

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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by SCIAG » 30 Oct 2020 10:49

I think it’s fair to say that in the long run a team is unlikely to significantly outperform its xG. It can happen in cup competitions because you have to win relatively few games. Over the course of a league season you have to either have a great goalkeeper, very clinical forwards (which is much rarer) or a lot of luck.

It’s reasonable to assume we won’t keep converting so many of our shots to goals. But with our defence as good as it is, we can keep grinding out 1-0s and 0-0s.

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Re: Opposition fans back from the game

by NewCorkSeth » 30 Oct 2020 10:53

SCIAG I think it’s fair to say that in the long run a team is unlikely to significantly outperform its xG. It can happen in cup competitions because you have to win relatively few games. Over the course of a league season you have to either have a great goalkeeper, very clinical forwards (which is much rarer) or a lot of luck.

It’s reasonable to assume we won’t keep converting so many of our shots to goals. But with our defence as good as it is, we can keep grinding out 1-0s and 0-0s.

Good football analysts, like BladesAnalytics, have pointed out that even if we regress to the league mean, we already almost have enough points to challenge top 6.


Just to add to this. BA tweeted this interesting stat on Wednesday

Here's one on Reading. Prior to last night they had conceded 69 shots against. 33 of those had come from the box which is joint lowest in the league (tied with Norwich). Reading had allowed 132 passes into their box which was just below league average of 137.

They are doing a fantastic job at suppressing opposition attacks deep in their own terrority stopping pressure in the box from being converted into chances, and doing an ok job at stopping ball reaching their own box with effective screening.

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