An analysis of Reading's current situation

[Top Flight]

So you think our risk of relegation is even higher than 50% then?

[Royal1988]

Thank you to all of you who have praised my OP, and/or welcomed me. To those of you who have not read it or disagree with it, then that is fine, I never expected it to appeal to everyone or everyone to agree with it .

Just a few little points to mention

Just a quick point (I'm half way through and may return to add to this later) is Danzell signing indicative of the owners wanting to be in control of transfers or is it our current dutch DOF signing players he's familiar with thus doing his job?

Either way could be possible. Whichever way you look at it though, if they knew they were sacking BM, then it’s still a player that the new manager in the squad and was ultimately not a managerial signing. Even if it was a McDermott signing, then the owners still let it go through even though the new manager might not want him.

Ok my only other question is about royal elm park. The only other club I can think of that did a similar thing is Franchise FC. Hasn't that actually helped them somewhat? They have a fairly quality academy producing some talented youngsters. Could some of this not be put down to the increased income? Dele alli, Brendan Galloway, sheyi ojo there's probably others.. I just think a lot of people are pessimistic (not unreasonably) about this development but it could equally have a positive effect right?

My answer to this is strictly neutral – for the simple reason that I genuinely don’t know if it is or not. All I know is that the club should not lose out on vital funds because of it. This may not be happening of course, but the lack of any information on the owners plans do not help us or their relationship with us.

This isn't true, we were floating around the playoffs

Apologies, I was a month out – it was actually November that I was thinking of when we were down well into the bottom half of the table.

Not entirely true. we brought in 7 players, that's 7 X Premier League wages plus a few transfer fees. Not to mention Pav's big salary.

I agree about Pog, admittedly I forgot about his wages when I wrote that, but in my defence, I was talking more about the transfer fees – and only 2 players that we brought that summer were not on a free transfer if memory serves me correctly.
Barcelona Blue

It´s the THIRD OF JUNE , how on earth can people make predictions without ;

1. Knowiung who the new manager is
2.knowing what the budget is
3. know what youngtsers will be involved ??
4.knowing what players we will buy
5.what players will be loaned in???

seems crazy to me that people can make predictions on next season without knowing the facts above, at least wait to the start of the season or closong of the transfer window to know what cards you´ve got before asuming anything..just because a load of doomers and gloolmers say we will have a shit manager/no signings(no loans doesnt mean its truej

My comment was based purely on the current status of clubs and how they have been progressing or declining in the past few years. For us, it was also based on the fact that our owners pretty much said in their statement of a few weeks ago that we will be looking to use our young players and not looking for much outside of the club. IT had nothing to do with opinions of others people.

3) You've spent a lot of time thinking about this, but with so much repetition of the same words within sentences (overuse of squad.. team.. etc) I switched off about halfway through.

Fair enough – I never claimed to be an expert in English Literature – in fact I only got an E in English when I was at school.

You misspelled Zingarevich

Thanks for pointing that out – I never could spell his name – whatever happened to the good old days of having easy names to spell such as Roger Smee?

[Lower West]

Can you really not think of any other clubs that have developed land around their ground to provide additional income ?

The Emirates is one of the largest conference centres in London.

[multisync1830]

Can you really not think of any other clubs that have developed land around their ground to provide additional income ?

The Emirates is one of the largest conference centres in London.

That was a new build not development?

[NewCorkSeth]

Well clearly one of us has never been to stamford bridge.

[Sutekh]

So you think our risk of relegation is even higher than 50% then?

At this moment I reckon that yes it is.

[Royal Bahamas]

Firstly, I would like to say that I am a Reading Fan of 28 years, and this is my first post on these forums. I normally avoid posting on forums, as I try to avoid endless debates of “I’m right/your wrong”, so I have decided to post here not my opinions, but more a carefully considered and (hopefully) unbiased view of our current situation and recent past. Please excuse the length, but I hope you will understand, when you see how much thought I have put into getting an unbiased view.

Secondly, a week on from Brain McDermott's sacking seems the right time to post this, as the initial response seems to have relatively died do'm pretty sure that the riskiest misspelledwn now, and emotions aren't running quite so high.

I will begin where I think a lot of fans will agree that all of our problems began when Anton Zigaravich took control of the club. It is now clear that he had no money to spend on the club and the squad suffered. Brian McDermott had over achieved with the side that he had in getting them to the premiership, especially given the slow start of his side that season (just as the previous year results picked up to an absurd degree after Christmas). It is easy to forget that we were facing relegation in December, but he somehow managed to turn that side around and win the league.

When we got to the premiership, AZ did not spend much on the squad, more or less repeating the same mistake from our first time in the premiership. Brian McDermott could not keep the squad up, and seemed to have a hard time motivating the squad, there were problems going on behind the scenes, and there were clear divisions in the dressing room, coming to a head when Guthrie refused to travel to Sunderland, and losing 7 league games in row. Yes, BM did stick with some players for too long, when he should have changed them – sticking with the same players usually only works when the team is winning. However, the squad did not have the quality to compete in the premiership, and needed a lot more investment; very few managers would have been able to keep that squad up (the first premiership team had a lot more quality, and was riding on such a high from the previous season, that it carried through our first season, before coming to light the next season).

After losing another 4 games in a row, BM then got the sack just over a month after winning the manager of the month award which had indicated that he might be able to get something out of the team. It seemed that AZ was reacting to the fans starting to turn on him and also making one last attempt to change things to keep us up – presumably desperate to get that big payday of another season. Like a lot of owners, his answer was to sack the manager in the vein hope of his replacement being able to do something different. Once it was obvious that we were down, his replacement Nigel Adkins then used the rest of the season to experiment with the squad and look at new players. NA tried to change the way that Reading played, wanting to play a more passing game. The last manager to try this at Reading was Brendan Rogers, and that failed, however, Nigel Adkins had more experience (getting Southampton promoted from League 1 to the Premiership) than Brendan had had before us, so it was a little different. The outcome was the same however, with the Reading team passing the ball about nicely in their own half some of the time, but struggling to go forward at the same time. Under Adkins’ stewardship however, we did manage to challenge for the play-offs, only missing out in the last match of the Season. Somewhat short however, of his bizarre expectation of 21 clean sheets and 100 goals (we scored 70).

It was during this season, that the Russian’s crazy frittering away of the clubs money, the clubs debts and SJM retaking control of the club came to light. In hindsight, NA did a very good job this season in getting us to where we were under such circumstances. Then the summer of 2014 he lost ELEVEN first team players, and could only replace with Cox, Ferdinand, Norwood, plus Mackie and Murray on Loan. One of these players was Le Fondre, who was sold to pay off a tax bill left by AZ. On top of this, Christopher Samuelson had been trying to take over the club with Vibrac, and the club was ultimately sold to our current owners. Difficult conditions for Adkins to work in certainly. Situations like this are where a manager’s man-management abilities come into play, and Nigel Adkins was found lacking in this department. He changed his team every week, inexplicably dropping players who had performed well, just when stability was needed. More importantly though, the results were relegation form - from our first 21 games of the season we had 25 points. By the 6-1 defeat at Birmingham, the players were devoid of confidence, and he had clearly lost the dressing room. If he had stayed, we may well have ended up being relegated, so the Thais made their first decision (at least publicly) and sacked Adkins

By Reading’s standards the appointment was done incredibly quickly – too quickly? Maybe. Too quickly for Steve Clarke? Apparently so, given his comments on sky a few weeks ago. If his comments are to be believed, then it seems that he soon discovered that we had no money to spend, and the workings at the top of the club were not something he found easy to work with.

The brilliant cup run to the semi-finals last year cannot be denied, but it masked the performance in the league. The form was in fact very slightly worse than that under Nigel Adkins, gaining the same number of points, but in 4 more games. You have to consider though, that Steve Clarke had inherited the squad and could only make limited changes in January, as most clubs outside of the big clubs can. Yes some clubs, turn things around instantly with a new manager, but invariably it does not work. You only have to look at the Championship this season – 13 teams changed their manager before the end of April, two were in the top half – Derby and Brentford. That leaves 10 of the top 12 working with a stable club. (Cardiff also changed their manager, but only at the very end of the season)
Last summer was a big one for Reading, the Thais seemed to invest more in the squad than Reading had ever done before, signing 12 players, 6 of which were on loan. However, there was very little immediate outlay, with 3 of them on a free, and the 6 loan signings being spread over the seasons wages. The obvious exception to this was Vydra who also had a fee – paid for by the sale of Hector to Chelsea. The Thais were following the Watford Model of relying on loan signings from the previous season – one that had worked for Watford, but will only work if the side has something that the loanees have something to play for. One possible reason for the lack of money spent on actual transfers may be down to FFP. I don’t know the workings of this, but I believe that you can only make a loss of so much. Combine this with the drop in parachute payments, and there may have only been so much that we were allowed to spend.
At the start of the season, everything looked great, a terrific run in September and October saw us pick up 18 points from 8 games – it was promotion form. Then we lost to Fulham, throwing away a 2-0 lead, and this match summed up a recurring theme for the rest of the season, many points were thrown away after this from winning or drawing positions (including 10 points from our last 10 games). That for me was our biggest problem this year. SC then signed his own P45 by speaking to Fulham, results and the fact that Fulham was lower in the league meant this was a bad move and this compounded the freefall, from that Fulham game, we had 5 points from 8 games, and the team looked like they didn’t care anymore. Steve Clarke was then sacked with an overall record of 51 points from 44 games, little better than relegation form, although skewed by the fact that half of them were not with a team he had assembled.
The next appointment took longer that the last, but was seemingly at the suggestion of the “old guard”. Like Steve Clarke before him, Brian McDermott inherited a team that he had not built, not only that, but they were loan players who would have nothing to play for once it became clear we were destined for mid-table (which was earlier than normal due to an unusually settled looking table). Brian McDermot’s tenure saw us pick up 25 points from 25 games – exactly the same as Steve Clarkes first 25 games, so rightly or wrongly, it should be no surprise that this was the outcome.

It is possible that the Thais merely looked at this and wanted to make the change sooner than half way through next season like had been done the last 2 seasons. But to look backwards in football is to stand still or go backwards yourself, so I would hope this decision is taken based on next season and not last. Brian McDermott may have done well with the youngsters next season – something the owners have already stated that they are looking to do next season. It is also possible that next season may have got off to a slow start as McDermott’s teams have done previously. In which case, I could not see them sticking with him past December at most, and we would be back to where we are now. More worryingly, another possibility is that the Thais are looking to do things their own way. Recent events seem to make this scenario more likely. First of all, Steve Clarke’s comments on Sky, then all of the staff that have left in the last few weeks including Nicky Hammond, then Brian McDermott’s sacking, and perhaps most worryingly for me, Simon Cox’s tweet, all point towards things not being right at our club. Danzell Gravenberch’s signing is just a couple of days before our manager gets the sack also seems to point to the fact that they want to dictate who we sign. Leaving it until three weeks after the season, also is not ideal, as now we have missed the chance of getting some great managers (although they may not have wanted to come to Reading anyway).
One of the things that has concerned me most of all in the last few weeks is the news that work has stopped on Bearwood, which leaves me wondering how much money the Thais are actually willing or able to invest in the club. This makes it seem even more like Royal Elm Park is their main focus, and the lack of communication only enhances this. The owners say that the club needs this development for the long term future of the club. This may or may not be true, but the club should certainly not be sacrificed for it. They also said that they are learning on the job, which in itself is not a problem – SJM had no football experience when he brought the club, but he surrounded himself with football people, where the Thais just seem to be looking for getting rid of these same people, and bringing their own people, who, at least initially, don’t seem to know much more than them.

This brings us up to date, and looking back, I can see that mistakes have been made at all levels of the club, from the players right to the top including all managers, and all owners including Sir John. Maybe even by us supporters to a point too. What is most worrying for me, is that there is a once famous football club local to me – Hereford FC (formerly Utd), and some of the factors that started their slide which resulted in them being wound up were mistakes at the highest level of that club. The mistakes that we have been making seem to echo some of those made there, and that is very concerning.

Even before the end of last season, I said that next season would be our most defining since 2000/2001, and would show which direction we will be heading in the next few years. Now, it is even more so. What we need next season is stability. At the very latest we need to have a manager in place by the end of June, so that they can get to know the players when they come back for training. This can’t be just anyone though, it needs to be exactly the right person, and the owners need to stick with him and not sack him as soon as we have a few bad results. The owners need to see that there is no quick fix to take us back to the premiership, it is as far away now as it was back in 2000, and we as fans also need to see that and give the manager and players the support that they need. I look at the teams in the Championship next year, and can see the top 8 being Newcastle, Norwich, Brentford, Brighton, Cardiff, Derby Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday. I can also see Wigan, Aston Villa, Birmingham, Preston, QPR, Leeds, Bristol City and Wolves finishing in Mid-table, leaving us to fight it out with Blackburn, Barnsley, Forest, Huddersfield, Fulham, Burton and Rotherham at the bottom. Just surviving relegation next year will be an achievement.

I understand people saying they will not renew their season ticket, or saying that they will not attend any more matches, but returning to Hereford for a moment, that is what happened there, and was ultimately the final nail in their coffin.
Next season, we need somehow to once again find that connection with the club, or at the very least, the team. A connection that we seem to have lost over the last couple of years. It cannot be underestimated what influence that team Spirit and togetherness has. Look at pretty much any promoted side from Hereford FC, who got promoted in their first year since reforming, right to Leicester City at the top of the Premiership, and there is one common factor – that bond with the fans – and this along with stability is what we desperately need at the moment. We all know, managers come and go, but so do owners eventually, and as long as us fans continue to support the club and stick with it, it will be here long after the owners have gone.

Troubled waters definitely seem to lie ahead, and it looks increasingly unlikely that we can steer around them, but as long as we stick with the ship and its captain and crew, we can hopefully steer through them eventually.

You misspelled Zingarevich

Who cares? I am pretty sure that the Ruskie misspelled "I care about RFC"!!!!!

Royal1988.........That was a well thought out and succinct breakdown of the recent RFC. Unfortunately I can only agree, that given where we are right now, Relegation is a very real possibility for next season. I am one of those who fully believed the Brian McDermott would be able to rebuild RFC as far as a strongly based TEAM. It had to take at least two seasons, but given the time the backing of the Owners, it could done.

[bcubed]

Is there a synopsis of this post anywhere?!

[Snowball]

Is there a synopsis of this post anywhere?!

"SJM sold out to a Russian Numpty
and it's been downhill from there.
Next stop League 1, barring a miracle"

[Royal1988]

One more point that I forgot to put in my original post regarding the timing of BM's sacking.

I did wonder if the they waited for three weeks because they reacted to the season ticket sales not going well, or if it was purely down to the owners all having to get together to decide (I may be wrong, but I think that they are all based in different places). I guess having multiple owners naturally makes it more complicated than having just one.

Either way though, once again the lack of communication from them does not help the relationship between them and the fans and instead helps to increase the disconnect between us and them (see my earlier comments about togetherness).

[surrounded by saints]

Is there a synopsis of this post anywhere?!

"SJM sold out to a Russian Numpty
and it's been downhill from there.
Next stop League 1, barring a miracle"

[AthleticoSpizz]

Have you ever considered a name change to Surrounded by Scummers?

[NewCorkSeth]

Just quickly on the "waiting 3 weeks" thing. Is it not possible the owners had a meeting with him to discuss their vision and the season ahead and Brian didn't match their ambition/expectations?

It's not like the meeting would have been the day after the last game right?

[Nameless]

One more point that I forgot to put in my original post regarding the timing of BM's sacking.

I did wonder if the they waited for three weeks because they reacted to the season ticket sales not going well, or if it was purely down to the owners all having to get together to decide (I may be wrong, but I think that they are all based in different places). I guess having multiple owners naturally makes it more complicated than having just one.

Either way though, once again the lack of communication from them does not help the relationship between them and the fans and instead helps to increase the disconnect between us and them (see my earlier comments about togetherness).

Out of interest what level of communication would you think was acceptable ?
There was a pretty lengthy end of season statement which basically said the season hadn't been good enough.
Then there was the 'Brian's gone' statement which was short and to the point which is probably standard in these situations for legal reasons.
Whenever SJM said any thing it got roundly slated for being cliched and trite and it's hard to know what people either want or think is reasonable.
Personally I don't want any particular communication. I want decent football and decent results and I don't need to be told what the5 year plan is or what the owners had for tea. Just give me a team, some enjoyable football and a reasonable titl at the top 6 and save the cost of employing a PR person because whatever they say isn't going to please most peop,e most of the time !

[Royal1988]

Just quickly on the "waiting 3 weeks" thing. Is it not possible the owners had a meeting with him to discuss their vision and the season ahead and Brian didn't match their ambition/expectations?

Yes it is, which is why i said in my last post that one possibility was that is was purely down to getting them all together to decide.

Out of interest what level of communication would you think was acceptable ?
There was a pretty lengthy end of season statement which basically said the season hadn't been good enough.
Then there was the 'Brian's gone' statement which was short and to the point which is probably standard in these situations for legal reasons.
Whenever SJM said any thing it got roundly slated for being cliched and trite and it's hard to know what people either want or think is reasonable.
Personally I don't want any particular communication. I want decent football and decent results and I don't need to be told what the5 year plan is or what the owners had for tea. Just give me a team, some enjoyable football and a reasonable titl at the top 6 and save the cost of employing a PR person because whatever they say isn't going to please most peop,e most of the time !

It is not about what I think is acceptable, it is what is helpful to avoid needless speculation as to their intentions. Something like this could have been helpful:

The board of Reading Football Club have this morning relieved Manager Steve Clarke of his duties.

The club met with Steve in person earlier today and we would like to place on permanent record our thanks to him for his hard work and diligence since his appointment in December 2014.

Following Thursday night’s defeat at home to QPR, added to a recent run of poor form which has seen the team pick up just one win in the last eight Sky Bet Championship fixtures, the board feel that a change in manager is now necessary.

During his time in charge of the Royals, Clarke presided over a total of 53 games, winning 19, drawing 14 and losing 20.

As part of this process, Assistant Manager Kevin Keen will also be leaving the club, and we would like to thank him for his efforts.

The board of Reading Football Club are committed to taking this club forward and will immediately begin the recruitment process in search of a new manager.

In the interim period, Under-21s Manager Martin Kuhl will take temporary charge of first team affairs and will lead training at Hogwood Park this morning.

The club will make a further announcement to our supporters in due course.

We currently have no idea if Brian McDermott was sacked because of results (which is what would be the most likely, and my guess), his philosophies, or some other reason. We also have no idea who will be in charge of pre-season training and possibly even the friendlies if we do not have a manager by then. Maybe they could even let us know what sort of manager they are looking for? One that is good with youth players? One that they think will get us promoted? Or one who they think will find us better players?

The end of season statement was indeed pretty comprehensive, but wasn't that the first time we had heard from them all season? I don't remember even hearing from them when SC got the sack (if I remember right, the above statement was from Nigel Howe?).

Obviously it is more difficult to communicate to the fans than when SJM was in charge, and communications in officalese aren't usually helpful, but just some communication from time to time during the season might be helpful. What exactly their expectations are for the season would be a helpful start, particularly the one ahead.

[WAZZOCK]

They did a statement a few weeks back.

[Old Biscuitman]

Having seen nigh on 70 years of ups and downs with RFC, though for most of that time a "going nowhere" in Div III South, I feel pretty sanguine about the current situation, Analysis is interesting but likewise goes nowhere. Now it's just fun to watch, wait and hope.

[AthleticoSpizz]

And that is exactly the right way to view your football "oldun"......too many people take it far too seriously

[Old Biscuitman]

And that is exactly the right way to view your football "oldun"......too many people take it far too seriously

Thank you Mr AS. That is how I have seen it since financial investors took over control of the professional game, not to have heart and soul in it anymore.

[Royal Rother]

Spellings, pah!

Decent op but "it cannot be underestimated" really grates.