Last Season, this.

[Snowball]

I was curious to see where we were after seven last season.

12 P7 W2 D3 L2 10-06 +4 09 Points 1.29 ppg = 59.14 Predicted (52 Actual)
12 P7 W3 D2 L2 07-09 - 2 11 Points 1.57 peg = 72.28 Predicted

That word "predicted" is NOT a prediction by me, Just wondering what our pig "maps to"

But then I looked to see how the top six did, how we did BASED ON our first seven games. It seems ridiculous to imagine that the first seven games could predict anything (and again, I'm not saying the first seven games is enough)

But look, after seven games RFC were on 1.29 ppg After 40 games Reading were still averaging 1.27 peg, virtually the same!
We finished with five defeats and a draw out of their last 6 games that dropped us a bit, but I find it remarkable that Games 1-7 pretty much predicted games 1-40.

Was that just Reading? NO.

The top four after 7 games were the top four at the end of the season

(2.71) Brighton (Finished 3rd, joint second on points)

(2.00) Middlesboro (Finished 2nd) (92 Predicted, 89 actual) (1.93)
(2.00) Burnley (Finished top) (92 Predicted, 93 Actual) (2.02)
(1.86) Hull (Finished 4th) (85.5 predicted, 83 actual) (1.80)

Brighton had their amazing start (counterbalanced around the year end when they almost fell apart) but after 7 they were 1st, and finished 3rd, equal points with 2nd place.

Middlesboro were second after seven, second after 4 and they were only 3 points off their prediction

Burnley were 3rd after 7 , top after 46 and they were just a single point better than predicted.

Other sides of note, three that didn't maintain their ppg

(1.86) Ipswich (were 5th, Finished 7th) (85.5 predicted, 69 actual) (1.50 ppg)
(1.83) Birmingham (6th, Finished 10th)

18th Wednesday (Finished 6th) The big improvers!

====================

RFC again, this season. We haven't too-easy a start either.

12 P7 W3 D2 L2 07-09 - 2 11 Points 1.57 ppg = 72.28 points "predicted"

2nd AWAY
5th HOME
7th HOME
9th HOME
16th AWAY
19th HOME
22nd AWAY

Barring an injury crisis, we ought to improve as the season advances, so we could yet be knocking on the top-six door

[Royal Ginger]

I want to hear more about the pig map.

[Nameless]

I want to hear more about the pig map.

I'm struggling with it too....

Interesting if there really is a correlation between performance in the first 7 games and across all 46 games. It seems a bit unlikely but if it was shown to work for lots of teams across a number of seasons we may as well stop the season now !

[Snowball136]

Interesting if there really is a correlation between performance in the first 7 games and across all 46 games. It seems a bit unlikely but if it was shown to work for lots of teams across a number of seasons we may as well stop the season now !

Surprised me!

Brighton faded but the 2.7 ppg was mad, and Wednesday gradually improved over the season to nick sixth

But 1-3, 2-2, 3-1, 4-4 and 5-7 (and 6-10) is pretty solid.

I wasn't expecting this or looking for it. Might look at other years and try 12/46

[Nuremberg Royal]

Tends to add credence to "the Table takes on a realistic look after 10 games " viewpoint.
But agree it's amazing how after such a short spell of games the pattern was formed.

[Hitchytwo]

Just as it is with England. If we get too carried away with thoughts about how well we're gonna do, we be will be severely dissapointed. My opinion is 10 - 15 matches in to the season you can really see what going to happen. If we get a win today that changes the table entirely.

[Sutekh]

I want to hear more about the pig map.

Struggle pig movement map

[Snowball]

Haven't done it carefully yet, but "eyeballing" the last few years (prior to last season)
the 7-46 correlation is not quite so strong as 2015-16

Usually though, those who are going to finish
in the top six are already there or top ten (as I guess, should be expected)

[Royalwaster]

This is really not that amazing ... all you've shown is that those with a tendency to do well at the beginning of the season, tend to do so for the rest of the season, with a few exceptions. That is hardly earth shattering is it? Surely you'd find pretty much the same kind of patterns in Baseball, American Football, etc. but you'd hardly be able to use it for any kind of betting profit as it's just too general ... and kind of obvious.

[Snowball]

It amazed me.

I would have expected a pattern to START to emerge no earlier than ten game in, more like 12,
but would still not want to bet much after 12 games. I would still not think, after 15 games that
the pattern was set.

The question is, how often are the top 4 (after 7, 10, 12, 15 games) still top 4, or top 6 at the end of the season.

As I said in the OP, I wasn't looking for this, but was amazed to see how Reading's season (games 1-40) was
perfectly "described" by those first seven games. Of course that might have been a fluke and I shall have fun
at some point seeing how reliable the "predictions" would be.

Of course there are anomalies. Sides blow up, sides get their act together and improve
over the season (Wednesday).

I seem to remember Sunderland being bottom, changing manager and then finishing top

[maffff]

How does today affect this snowbs?

[Snowball]

7 Reading -- P8 - - W3 D3 L2 12-06 - - - 12 Points - - - 1.50 ppg - - - 2015-16
8 Reading -- P8 - - W4 D2 L2 09-10 - - - 14 Points - - - 1.75 ppg - - - 2016-17


1.75 ppg is 80/81 points in a season

[Z175]

17 points from 8 in the 106 season. And of course 24 points from 8 in 1985/6!

So I don't think we will be lifting the title.

Though 8 from 8 in 2011/12.... so maybe!

[seahawk10]

I want to hear more about the pig map.

Struggle pig movement map

I love the fact that I can google Struggle Pig, Danny Williams and find the thread where brendy gave him the nickname:
http://www.royals.org/forum/viewtopic.p ... 4&start=40

[NewCorkSeth]

I want to hear more about the pig map.

Struggle pig movement map

I love the fact that I can google Struggle Pig, Danny Williams and find the thread where brendy gave him the nickname:
http://www.royals.org/forum/viewtopic.p ... 4&start=40

I thought the lovely fellas at Hoffenheim gave him that nickname?

[seahawk10]

Struggle pig movement map

I love the fact that I can google Struggle Pig, Danny Williams and find the thread where brendy gave him the nickname:
http://www.royals.org/forum/viewtopic.p ... 4&start=40

I thought the lovely fellas at Hoffenheim gave him that nickname?

Don't muddle the issue with facts! Let me re-phrase it to: find the thread where Brendy made me aware of the struggle pig nickname.