Rival Watch

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YorkshireRoyal99
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Re: Rival Watch

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 04 Nov 2022 11:09

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Snowflake Royal Carroll thrives off good early crosses into the box, and he needs players around him for any balls up to his head, not maybe 1 player within 20 yards.

Joao needs players around him, balls to feet or chest and possession in the final third.

Meite needs good balls in behind to chase and headers to flick on to players around him.

Etc etc. None of this works with 35% possession and 8 players around our box.


But you don't need 60%+ possession for that to work either, so I'm not quite sure what you mean when you say, "none of this works". The classic saying is, it's not about how much possession you have but what you do with it. From what I've seen this season, in most games this season we've been relatively effective with our style of play and many managers have praised how we are difficult to play against, not just because of our defensive shape but because of our threat going forward as well. Look at Tuesday, didn't exactly play with the ball/on the front foot but managed 17 (correct if wrong) shots on goal and were a threat throughout, just our quality let us down.

For the record, I do actually agree with you, I'd prefer to play with the ball and on the front foot with players high up the pitch, but I don't think the club view that as where we are at the moment. We are very much considered an "underdog" in this league by the club at the moment, so I can understand why we play like we do, and we've played what? 40% of the season so far-ish? We are 11th, with a good record and we've been good in most games so far this season and surpassed expectations so far, so I think it's tough to complain.

Good luck finding anywhere I've said we should have 60% possession.


It's not the specific figure that's important, more the principle of the point.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Stranded » 04 Nov 2022 14:09

YorkshireRoyal99
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But you don't need 60%+ possession for that to work either, so I'm not quite sure what you mean when you say, "none of this works". The classic saying is, it's not about how much possession you have but what you do with it. From what I've seen this season, in most games this season we've been relatively effective with our style of play and many managers have praised how we are difficult to play against, not just because of our defensive shape but because of our threat going forward as well. Look at Tuesday, didn't exactly play with the ball/on the front foot but managed 17 (correct if wrong) shots on goal and were a threat throughout, just our quality let us down.

For the record, I do actually agree with you, I'd prefer to play with the ball and on the front foot with players high up the pitch, but I don't think the club view that as where we are at the moment. We are very much considered an "underdog" in this league by the club at the moment, so I can understand why we play like we do, and we've played what? 40% of the season so far-ish? We are 11th, with a good record and we've been good in most games so far this season and surpassed expectations so far, so I think it's tough to complain.

Good luck finding anywhere I've said we should have 60% possession.


It's not the specific figure that's important, more the principle of the point.


So did some quick research as it's Friday - we are pretty much bang on 40% posession across the season 39.94% on average. What I thought may be interesting* was looking at our record split by posession stats. So:

Less than 30% Games 3 W1 L2
30 to 40% G7 W4 D1 L2
40 to 50% G5 W3 D1 L1
Over 50% G3 L3

So interestingly* the only 3 times we have had the bulk of the ball this season we have come away with 0pts. Now that is a small sample - defeats to Blackpool, Rotherham and WBA - all games we were behind early in so probably no surprise.

Looking at just results the "sweet spot" in terms of possession for us this year is 36 to 42% - we have had 5 games where the amount of our posession has landed in that range. We have a 100% record.

So, completely unscientifically, we seem to be set up to be most successful with around 40% of the ball - this does seem to mostly be as a result of us being happy to get a lead and try to manage the game out by ceding posession and territory and backing ourselves to close the game out - this has seen mixed results naturally esp. away from home.

This can be seen in a few games. Wigan (a) - up to the point we scored posession was 55/45 to Wigan - after it skewed to 74/26 as we were happy to hold on.

Millwall (a) - we had 54% up to the point we scored - this dropped to 40% from that point onwards

Cardiff (H) Before winning goal 45% - after 27%
Bristol (H) Before 43% after 36%
Huddersfield Before 1st goal 55% - after 41%

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Re: Rival Watch

by Sutekh » 04 Nov 2022 14:28

Stranded
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Snowflake Royal Good luck finding anywhere I've said we should have 60% possession.


It's not the specific figure that's important, more the principle of the point.


So did some quick research as it's Friday - we are pretty much bang on 40% posession across the season 39.94% on average. What I thought may be interesting* was looking at our record split by posession stats. So:

Less than 30% Games 3 W1 L2
30 to 40% G7 W4 D1 L2
40 to 50% G5 W3 D1 L1
Over 50% G3 L3

So interestingly* the only 3 times we have had the bulk of the ball this season we have come away with 0pts. Now that is a small sample - defeats to Blackpool, Rotherham and WBA - all games we were behind early in so probably no surprise.

Looking at just results the "sweet spot" in terms of possession for us this year is 36 to 42% - we have had 5 games where the amount of our posession has landed in that range. We have a 100% record.

So, completely unscientifically, we seem to be set up to be most successful with around 40% of the ball - this does seem to mostly be as a result of us being happy to get a lead and try to manage the game out by ceding posession and territory and backing ourselves to close the game out - this has seen mixed results naturally esp. away from home.

This can be seen in a few games. Wigan (a) - up to the point we scored posession was 55/45 to Wigan - after it skewed to 74/26 as we were happy to hold on.

Millwall (a) - we had 54% up to the point we scored - this dropped to 40% from that point onwards

Cardiff (H) Before winning goal 45% - after 27%
Bristol (H) Before 43% after 36%
Huddersfield Before 1st goal 55% - after 41%


And presumably the reverse to the above after conceding - presume that’d be the same for most teams in those situations so is pretty much exactly what you’d expect.

Best games do tend to be the smash and grab where you’re outplayed for pretty much the entirety of the game every count except that one mad moment you scored to take the points. Extremely nerve racking to watch though.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 04 Nov 2022 14:41

Personally I'd put everything below 40% in together.

And yeah, teams having effectively already convinced themselves they have us beaten is largely the reason for our higher possession games, rather than anything we've done.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Snowball » 04 Nov 2022 15:33

"Outplayed"... is that where the other side scores more than us?

Bill Shankly once said something like "Defence Counts, you know"

Our season is bizarre.

We shipped 4-4-3-3 against Sheffield United, Rotherham, Sunderland and Swansea,
14 Goals (I used a calculator) in 4 games, 14-2, a -12 Goal Difference.

But in the other 14 games we've conceded just 11 while scoring 18

P14 W8 D2 L4 18-11 = 26 Points, promotion form, and three
of these four defeats were by a single goal


1-0 Blackpool
2-1 Burnley (truly robbed there)
2-1 QPR

In the bad four-games block we also lost to Swansea by a single goal

Seems to me Paul Ince knows what he's doing


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Re: Rival Watch

by Hound » 05 Nov 2022 14:19

Just tuned into the sheff utd Burnley game - what’s happened there?

Sheff utd 28 shots (12 on target) and 5 goals according to the stats. Didn’t expect that

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Re: Rival Watch

by Ascotexgunner » 05 Nov 2022 14:20

Hehe let's see if Burnley have got a ref to get them out of this. They had this coming. Their defence has ridden it's luck too often.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Zip » 05 Nov 2022 14:36

Ascotexgunner Hehe let's see if Burnley have got a ref to get them out of this. They had this coming. Their defence has ridden it's luck too often.


Yep. Really lucky too many times.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Mid Sussex Royal » 05 Nov 2022 14:39

Zip
Ascotexgunner Hehe let's see if Burnley have got a ref to get them out of this. They had this coming. Their defence has ridden it's luck too often.


Yep. Really lucky too many times.


all evens out, the first Sheffield goal came from a corner which was a goal kick and another was offside


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Re: Rival Watch

by tidus_mi2 » 05 Nov 2022 15:45

Welp, Hull's top scorer is out for our game now.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Hound » 05 Nov 2022 17:20

tidus_mi2 Welp, Hull's top scorer is out for our game now.


Yay

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Re: Rival Watch

by Hendo » 07 Nov 2022 10:38

Nathan Jones could be heading to Saints.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Stranded » 07 Nov 2022 15:34

Hound
tidus_mi2 Welp, Hull's top scorer is out for our game now.


Yay


Hat-trick for his replacement incoming.


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Re: Rival Watch

by South Coast Royal » 07 Nov 2022 15:56

Just on the possession stats.
For most teams it is the centre backs and keeper that have most possession in a game especially with so many playing square in their own half.

So possession stats themselves mean nothing much although possession stats for having the ball in the opponent's half might have more significance.

As for Reading I would like to see us create a few more chances .

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Re: Rival Watch

by Franchise FC » 07 Nov 2022 16:33

South Coast Royal Just on the possession stats.
For most teams it is the centre backs and keeper that have most possession in a game especially with so many playing square in their own half.

So possession stats themselves mean nothing much although possession stats for having the ball in the opponent's half might have more significance.

As for Reading I would like to see us create a few more chances .

I’ve long supported the idea that possession in the opponents third is a more important stat, but rarely if ever see it

I’d go with yours if that were available

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Re: Rival Watch

by MartinRdg » 07 Nov 2022 16:43

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South Coast Royal Just on the possession stats.
For most teams it is the centre backs and keeper that have most possession in a game especially with so many playing square in their own half.

So possession stats themselves mean nothing much although possession stats for having the ball in the opponent's half might have more significance.

As for Reading I would like to see us create a few more chances .

I’ve long supported the idea that possession in the opponents third is a more important stat, but rarely if ever see it

I’d go with yours if that were available


Or touches in the opponents box is a good stat

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Re: Rival Watch

by Franchise FC » 07 Nov 2022 17:26

MartinRdg
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South Coast Royal Just on the possession stats.
For most teams it is the centre backs and keeper that have most possession in a game especially with so many playing square in their own half.

So possession stats themselves mean nothing much although possession stats for having the ball in the opponent's half might have more significance.

As for Reading I would like to see us create a few more chances .

I’ve long supported the idea that possession in the opponents third is a more important stat, but rarely if ever see it

I’d go with yours if that were available


Or touches in the opponents box is a good stat

Not quite so keen on that because one attack could potentially give 5/6 touches and totally mess up the stats

Would still be better than the overall possession

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Re: Rival Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 07 Nov 2022 17:50

South Coast Royal Just on the possession stats.
For most teams it is the centre backs and keeper that have most possession in a game especially with so many playing square in their own half.

So possession stats themselves mean nothing much although possession stats for having the ball in the opponent's half might have more significance.

As for Reading I would like to see us create a few more chances .

Yes, the quality of the possession is most important, which is why I'm not at all interested in having lots of it for the sake of it. My argument is that to reliably have good quality possession consistently, there's a minimum amount required..and for me that's not averaging less than 40%. It's about 42%/43%+.


The ideal and realistic goal is probably around 44% to 56% so you don’t just become obssessed with passing for passing's sake. And I'd expect a club with its better data analytics to be targeting key amounts in certain areas and types of passes.

Personally, I think your larger minority should be the middle third..

Worth remembering that possession is just a count of total passes.

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Re: Rival Watch

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 07 Nov 2022 18:53

Snowflake Royal
South Coast Royal Just on the possession stats.
For most teams it is the centre backs and keeper that have most possession in a game especially with so many playing square in their own half.

So possession stats themselves mean nothing much although possession stats for having the ball in the opponent's half might have more significance.

As for Reading I would like to see us create a few more chances .

Yes, the quality of the possession is most important, which is why I'm not at all interested in having lots of it for the sake of it. My argument is that to reliably have good quality possession consistently, there's a minimum amount required..and for me that's not averaging less than 40%. It's about 42%/43%+.


The ideal and realistic goal is probably around 44% to 56% so you don’t just become obssessed with passing for passing's sake. And I'd expect a club with its better data analytics to be targeting key amounts in certain areas and types of passes.

Personally, I think your larger minority should be the middle third..

Worth remembering that possession is just a count of total passes.


I don't disagree completely, but I think it can depend on context. I get the overall point, you need to have a certain amount of possession to have a better opportunity of creating better quality chances, but even still with 35% of the ball, the opposition who have 65% might be committing more men forward, leaving fewer players back, exposing more space etc. But get the gist, it's no secret that teams that have less possession tend to lower down the table, not in every case, but in a lot.

Taking it to the extreme though, as much as Stam's style was as dry as anything ever seen, having 75-80% of the ball was actually a good strategy because it meant that teams had a quarter of the game to create chances and score the goal(s) necessary. A quarter of the game is say 22.5 minutes (maximum by the way) and if you're factoring about a third of that time will probably be out of play/set pieces, the opposition probably only have about 15 minutes of in-possession time to score a goal. It was no coincidence that we were at the top of the league in that season.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 07 Nov 2022 18:55

YorkshireRoyal99
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South Coast Royal Just on the possession stats.
For most teams it is the centre backs and keeper that have most possession in a game especially with so many playing square in their own half.

So possession stats themselves mean nothing much although possession stats for having the ball in the opponent's half might have more significance.

As for Reading I would like to see us create a few more chances .

Yes, the quality of the possession is most important, which is why I'm not at all interested in having lots of it for the sake of it. My argument is that to reliably have good quality possession consistently, there's a minimum amount required..and for me that's not averaging less than 40%. It's about 42%/43%+.


The ideal and realistic goal is probably around 44% to 56% so you don’t just become obssessed with passing for passing's sake. And I'd expect a club with its better data analytics to be targeting key amounts in certain areas and types of passes.

Personally, I think your larger minority should be the middle third..

Worth remembering that possession is just a count of total passes.


I don't disagree completely, but I think it can depend on context. I get the overall point, you need to have a certain amount of possession to have a better opportunity of creating better quality chances, but even still with 35% of the ball, the opposition who have 65% might be committing more men forward, leaving fewer players back, exposing more space etc. But get the gist, it's no secret that teams that have less possession tend to lower down the table, not in every case, but in a lot.

Taking it to the extreme though, as much as Stam's style was as dry as anything ever seen, having 75-80% of the ball was actually a good strategy because it meant that teams had a quarter of the game to create chances and score the goal(s) necessary. A quarter of the game is say 22.5 minutes (maximum by the way) and if you're factoring about a third of that time will probably be out of play/set pieces, the opposition probably only have about 15 minutes of in-possession time to score a goal. It was no coincidence that we were at the top of the league in that season.

It was particularly helpful that most of the opposition players, and indeed fans in the stadium, were asleep for most of the time the opposition had the ball as well, thanks to the dire quality on display. So they only really had about 30 seconds of conscious possession a match.

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