Rival Watch

17149 posts
Nameless
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 8851
Joined: 23 Aug 2013 12:25

Re: Rival Watch

by Nameless » 19 Sep 2022 21:12

Stranded 538's mathematics has Huddersfield, Hull & Blackpool going whilst we finish a glorious 16th.


How does maths show us dropping from 3rd to 16th ?
That needs us to get a fair bit worse and a lot of teams to improve quite a lot.
Presumably their maths shows WBA finishing above us ?

Chameleon
Member
Posts: 200
Joined: 13 Jan 2018 15:59

Re: Rival Watch

by Chameleon » 19 Sep 2022 23:00

Nameless
Stranded 538's mathematics has Huddersfield, Hull & Blackpool going whilst we finish a glorious 16th.


How does maths show us dropping from 3rd to 16th ?
That needs us to get a fair bit worse and a lot of teams to improve quite a lot.
Presumably their maths shows WBA finishing above us ?


The way they work is that they aggregate attack and defence scores, so a team that alternates 1-0 and 0-1 will have a better net score than 1-0 and 0-3, so despite us being where we should be on xG match by match (1 more win, 1 less draw than expected) they take an average going forward, which understandably has us dropping a bit. FWIW they have us at roughly equivalent chances of finishing in the playoffs vs getting relegated, with a 75% chance of 7th to 21st, which doesn't feel unfair. It's worth pointing out that despite our lofty position in the table we're only 8 points off the relegation zone - the table is less spread than usual 10 games in.

User avatar
Brogue
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 10521
Joined: 02 Mar 2021 20:38

Re: Rival Watch

by Brogue » 20 Sep 2022 09:46

Pauno to Cardiff rumours are building :shock:

User avatar
tidus_mi2
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 7278
Joined: 15 Jun 2012 15:24

Re: Rival Watch

by tidus_mi2 » 20 Sep 2022 09:59

Brogue Pauno to Cardiff rumours are building :shock:

I don't particularly dislike Pauno he seems a nice guy but omg Cardiff are fooked if they appoint him.

Stranded
Hob Nob Subscriber
Hob Nob Subscriber
Posts: 19587
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 12:42
Location: Propping up the bar in the Nags

Re: Rival Watch

by Stranded » 20 Sep 2022 10:03

Brogue Pauno to Cardiff rumours are building :shock:


Well that's pushing it a bit. There is a report that he is considering applying almost as a throwaway line stating that Jody Morris is interested.

I'd be amazed if he ends up anywhere near the place but if he does, lump on a Cardiff home win when we go down there.


User avatar
Sutekh
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 18386
Joined: 12 Feb 2014 14:05
Location: Undiscovered pyramid somewhere in Egypt

Re: Rival Watch

by Sutekh » 20 Sep 2022 10:34

Chameleon
Nameless
Stranded 538's mathematics has Huddersfield, Hull & Blackpool going whilst we finish a glorious 16th.


How does maths show us dropping from 3rd to 16th ?
That needs us to get a fair bit worse and a lot of teams to improve quite a lot.
Presumably their maths shows WBA finishing above us ?


The way they work is that they aggregate attack and defence scores, so a team that alternates 1-0 and 0-1 will have a better net score than 1-0 and 0-3, so despite us being where we should be on xG match by match (1 more win, 1 less draw than expected) they take an average going forward, which understandably has us dropping a bit. FWIW they have us at roughly equivalent chances of finishing in the playoffs vs getting relegated, with a 75% chance of 7th to 21st, which doesn't feel unfair. It's worth pointing out that despite our lofty position in the table we're only 8 points off the relegation zone - the table is less spread than usual 10 games in.


That would appear correct, after 10 games last season 3rd place in the table (Fulham) was 12 points clear 22nd (Peterborough). The season before that was a similar gap. The Championship table currently is very condensed together with even Coventry looking mid-table if they won the 3 games in hand. Sunderland (5th) are only 5 points from the relegation places. So, overall I’d say it’s still a bit tricky to call any finishing positions at the moment other than SheffU and Norwich (surprise, surprise) who seem to be about right for the eventual promoted sides at the moment.

For the record after 10 games last season 2nd and 3rd placed clubs (Bournemouth and Fulham) were both promoted automatically while none of the rest of the top 6 (WBA, Coventry, Blackburn and Stoke) even made the play offs.

Stranded
Hob Nob Subscriber
Hob Nob Subscriber
Posts: 19587
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 12:42
Location: Propping up the bar in the Nags

Re: Rival Watch

by Stranded » 20 Sep 2022 10:55

Sutekh
Chameleon
Nameless
How does maths show us dropping from 3rd to 16th ?
That needs us to get a fair bit worse and a lot of teams to improve quite a lot.
Presumably their maths shows WBA finishing above us ?


The way they work is that they aggregate attack and defence scores, so a team that alternates 1-0 and 0-1 will have a better net score than 1-0 and 0-3, so despite us being where we should be on xG match by match (1 more win, 1 less draw than expected) they take an average going forward, which understandably has us dropping a bit. FWIW they have us at roughly equivalent chances of finishing in the playoffs vs getting relegated, with a 75% chance of 7th to 21st, which doesn't feel unfair. It's worth pointing out that despite our lofty position in the table we're only 8 points off the relegation zone - the table is less spread than usual 10 games in.


That would appear correct, after 10 games last season 3rd place in the table (Fulham) was 12 points clear 22nd (Peterborough). The season before that was a similar gap. The Championship table currently is very condensed together with even Coventry looking mid-table if they won the 3 games in hand. Sunderland (5th) are only 5 points from the relegation places. So, overall I’d say it’s still a bit tricky to call any finishing positions at the moment other than SheffU and Norwich (surprise, surprise) who seem to be about right for the eventual promoted sides at the moment.

For the record after 10 games last season 2nd and 3rd placed clubs (Bournemouth and Fulham) were both promoted automatically while none of the rest of the top 6 (WBA, Coventry, Blackburn and Stoke) even made the play offs.


It is definitely a case this year that, unlike in previous seasons there are no obviously bad sides - Rotherham were expected to struggle from the off, yet sit in 8th with only 1 defeat to their name. Naturally we were supposed to down amongst the dead men from the get go.

Even Huddersfield, who have been poor are not really showing signs of getting cut adrift, although their win v Cardiff was probably key in that. Coventry simply have to win soon but their disjointed start to the campaign could really hurt them - the break may help them and the game against Boro on the 1st is already pretty massive for both clubs. Yes Coventry have 3 games in hand but defeat on Saturday could mean that even winning those will see them stuck in the bottom 3.

To only have the equivalent of 1 win between 5th and 17th shows how key it is for any side to bounce back after a defeat as 2 or 3 of them on the spin could see you plummet, whilst 2 or 3 wins can see you shift from relegation candidates to play-off challengers.

South Coast Royal
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 5642
Joined: 16 Jan 2020 17:29

Re: Rival Watch

by South Coast Royal » 20 Sep 2022 16:27

Half Time Pizza
South Coast Royal
Snowball


Makes me wonder what are the ten worst Reading concessions?

Worthy of a thread?


Whitbread at home to Oxford on a very wet (?New Year's) day when he thought the ball had gone out of play .


I think you are thinking of goalie Phil Whitehead. To be fair he did save the ball going out for a corner


Yes, getting my Whiteheads and Whitbreads mixed up.

User avatar
John Smith
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 4717
Joined: 20 Jan 2010 23:47
Location: Astronauts The New Conquistadors

Re: Rival Watch

by John Smith » 20 Sep 2022 17:00

Sutekh
South Coast Royal
Snowball


Makes me wonder what are the ten worst Reading concessions?

Worthy of a thread?


Whitbread at home to Oxford on a very wet (?New Year's) day when he thought the ball had gone out of play .


Is that the 4-3 game? If it is it was actually at the end of October in 2000. One of the most brilliant games played at the Mad Stad.

Incredible match. The rain in the second half hammering on the roof and a Tony Rougier masterclass.

I'd have to put Birmingham's first on the final day in 2009 up there. Utterly hideous given the circumstances of what was at stake that day and ruined Hahnemann's legacy.


User avatar
morganb
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 2424
Joined: 31 Jul 2017 12:30

Re: Rival Watch

by morganb » 20 Sep 2022 17:49

Brogue Pauno to Cardiff rumours are building :shock:


Ince to Cardiff rumours are building

https://www.footballinsider247.com/sour ... -city-job/

https://twitter.com/footyinsider247/sta ... 7SCjA&s=19

User avatar
Sutekh
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 18386
Joined: 12 Feb 2014 14:05
Location: Undiscovered pyramid somewhere in Egypt

Re: Rival Watch

by Sutekh » 20 Sep 2022 17:59

morganb
Brogue Pauno to Cardiff rumours are building :shock:


Ince to Cardiff rumours are building

https://www.footballinsider247.com/sour ... -city-job/

https://twitter.com/footyinsider247/sta ... 7SCjA&s=19


Odds currently have Mark Hudson (current Cardiff caretaker), Jody Morris and Luton’s Nathan Jones leading the way.

Local press in South Wales think next boss also could be Sol Bamba or Craig Bellamy.

Personally don’t think anyone has a clue.

Stranded
Hob Nob Subscriber
Hob Nob Subscriber
Posts: 19587
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 12:42
Location: Propping up the bar in the Nags

Re: Rival Watch

by Stranded » 20 Sep 2022 19:00

In form manager "in frame" for vacant job shocker.

If it happens, so be it, but I find it very hard to believe it at this point. He has the chance to build something here with a solid set up. Only reason to move would be financial, if the offer comes.

Still not sure any one would try and snatch Ince after so few games back in the game.

User avatar
Brogue
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 10521
Joined: 02 Mar 2021 20:38

Re: Rival Watch

by Brogue » 20 Sep 2022 19:09

probably going to finish higher than them this season, then the transfer restrictions should be gone. He's working with his kid which he seems to enjoy. Seems to have a good rapport with the fans. Also worth noting he's from Dagenham so probably quite likes being sort of close to east London. Don't know where he lives but can probably commute daily to us. I just don't see this happening.

And on top of all that Dai would need to give permission for him to go speak to them and there ain't a cat in hell's chance of that happening.


The Royal Forester
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 1465
Joined: 25 Dec 2015 13:53

Re: Rival Watch

by The Royal Forester » 20 Sep 2022 20:27

Brogue probably going to finish higher than them this season, then the transfer restrictions should be gone. He's working with his kid which he seems to enjoy. Seems to have a good rapport with the fans. Also worth noting he's from Dagenham so probably quite likes being sort of close to east London. Don't know where he lives but can probably commute daily to us. I just don't see this happening.

And on top of all that Dai would need to give permission for him to go speak to them and there ain't a cat in hell's chance of that happening.

I have read an article somewhere in the press he is sharing a house with Tom in Ascot, so not far to the SCL, Probably car shares as well, helps to keep the cost of petrol down. I believe the rest of his family are still in the Essex area.

YorkshireRoyal99
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 5005
Joined: 10 Aug 2017 18:07

Re: Rival Watch

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 20 Sep 2022 21:02

Still early days but I don't see why Cardiff is that much a bigger sell than what we are long-term. Yes, short-term financial benefits but the way it's going Ince would probably end up being rewarded with a more lucrative deal at the end of the season and he's only got one more window of restrictions left to work through and then we should/will be free then.

Ince seems to be a building a good set up here and I'd argue our squad is certainly no worse than Cardiff's really, on paper or in practice, as the current table suggests. As said though, early days.

If it does end up being Nathan Jones however, I can see Luton going down after that. Their biggest success stories in recent seasons have come with him at the helm.

User avatar
Zip
Hob Nob Legend
Posts: 22408
Joined: 30 Dec 2017 16:39

Re: Rival Watch

by Zip » 20 Sep 2022 21:06

Money talks. Cardiff could offer him a fair bit more I guess. However he appears to be living locally with his son and I reckon he loves his son playing for the team he manages.
Expectations are also realistic. He knows. We know. Staying up this season and it’s job done.

I can’t see him leaving.

windermereROYAL
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 7999
Joined: 19 Feb 2008 11:18

Re: Rival Watch

by windermereROYAL » 20 Sep 2022 21:08

morganb
Brogue Pauno to Cardiff rumours are building :shock:


Ince to Cardiff rumours are building

https://www.footballinsider247.com/sour ... -city-job/

https://twitter.com/footyinsider247/sta ... 7SCjA&s=19


Building has in one rumour on footyinsider? the top tweet is a direct link to the bottom one, how do you define building please?

YorkshireRoyal99
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 5005
Joined: 10 Aug 2017 18:07

Re: Rival Watch

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 20 Sep 2022 21:08

We aren't exactly short of a bob or two ourselves, just not at this moment in time. No reason why we can't verbally agree with Ince a new contract at the end of the campaign depending on our position and status next season, particularly if we end up with a more than respectable finish come the end of the season (mid table and above).

User avatar
Franchise FC
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 10855
Joined: 22 May 2007 16:24
Location: Relocated to LA

Re: Rival Watch

by Franchise FC » 20 Sep 2022 21:12

windermereROYAL
morganb
Brogue Pauno to Cardiff rumours are building :shock:


Ince to Cardiff rumours are building

https://www.footballinsider247.com/sour ... -city-job/

https://twitter.com/footyinsider247/sta ... 7SCjA&s=19


Building has in one rumour on footyinsider? the top tweet is a direct link to the bottom one, how do you define building please?

I'm amazed they haven't put two and two together from that article and suggested that Rogers would be in line to replace Ince when he goes to Cardiff :roll:

Royal_jimmy
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 4949
Joined: 10 Aug 2011 10:44
Location: Planet Earth

Re: Rival Watch

by Royal_jimmy » 20 Sep 2022 22:09

tidus_mi2
Brogue Pauno to Cardiff rumours are building :shock:

I don't particularly dislike Pauno he seems a nice guy but omg Cardiff are fooked if they appoint him.


Please Cardiff hire him :lol: :lol:

17149 posts

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], LJ, Royals and Racers and 337 guests

It is currently 28 Mar 2024 22:00