Relegation

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blythspartan
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Re: Relegation

by blythspartan » 10 Jan 2022 12:59

Snowflake Royal
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Snowflake Royal That's not actually that hard though.

Moore is motivated to leave 12 months earlier. We apply the relegation wage cuts we'd be insane not to have in contracts we don’t renew as many contracts and sign cheaper players.

Bristow, Ashcroft, Camara, Clarke etc can form a much larger part of the squad at a lower level.

Maybe a couple of promising players we want to keep have to be sold. We could afford to seel one of Southwood, Andresson and Boyce-Clarke for example

Are the FL really going to put prohibitive conditions we simply cannot meet in place because we finished 22nd not 21st?

I don't think so.


Not prohibative no but much harder to meet - we won't be allowed to go forward in L1 with a 16m wage bill, that is for certain, how low will imagine on what we expect our income to be next year - that will be markedly lower - possibly half of what we can expect in the Champ in terms of TV money, attendance etc - so I expect any wage budget would be lowered in line.

So we could see the wage budget drop another 5 or 6 million - if not more.

Well Moore is £1.5m of that instantly if we shift him.

And a 10% relegation wage reduction would do another £1.6m

Halfway there almost instantly.


I appreciate this is a big IF but if we were fighting for promotion in League 1 we could get bigger crowds than we are currently attracting in the Championship. Oxford, Swindon and Pompey would all be great games and attract big crowds.

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Re: Relegation

by Coppells Lost Coat » 10 Jan 2022 13:07

There is a big assumption that the kids are ready to step up next season...i am not sure they are good enough to be able to compete in L1 yet. Yes a few have looked alright so far. Some had there time to shine on Saturday and if anything it showed how unprepared they are to play L1 football.
So relegation should not be seen as this reset button to look forward to.

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Re: Relegation

by Barney » 10 Jan 2022 13:17

blythspartan
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Not prohibative no but much harder to meet - we won't be allowed to go forward in L1 with a 16m wage bill, that is for certain, how low will imagine on what we expect our income to be next year - that will be markedly lower - possibly half of what we can expect in the Champ in terms of TV money, attendance etc - so I expect any wage budget would be lowered in line.

So we could see the wage budget drop another 5 or 6 million - if not more.

Well Moore is £1.5m of that instantly if we shift him.

And a 10% relegation wage reduction would do another £1.6m

Halfway there almost instantly.


I appreciate this is a big IF but if we were fighting for promotion in League 1 we could get bigger crowds than we are currently attracting in the Championship. Oxford, Swindon and Pompey would all be great games and attract big crowds.


On the other side of the coin, Oxford or Pompey (or both) may be in a higher division...Swindon may well still be in League two.
And we'll have the possible delights of Mansfield, Crawley, Salford, Harrogate, Walsall etc to look forward to. And these will NOT be decent crowds. We HAVE to stay up.

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Snowflake Royal
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Re: Relegation

by Snowflake Royal » 10 Jan 2022 14:25

Coppells Lost Coat There is a big assumption that the kids are ready to step up next season...i am not sure they are good enough to be able to compete in L1 yet. Yes a few have looked alright so far. Some had there time to shine on Saturday and if anything it showed how unprepared they are to play L1 football.
So relegation should not be seen as this reset button to look forward to.

So, let's take a look at this.

Southwood - is performing broadly at Championship level - 1st XI
Andresson - Already getting some L1 experience with Morecambe 1st XVIII
Boyce-Clarke - unknown but promising
Bristow - seems a little out of his depth at Championship level but some promise there. Ok Squad
Ashcroft - seems a bit lightweight and unready for Championship, Maybe Squad
Dorsett - playing ok at L2 already Ok Squad
Holzman - was poor against Kiddie, on just one game not remotely ready - Not Ready
Stickland - unclear, but seemed ok in cameo
Osorio - probably a little way off yet, but promising and who knows in a year Maybe Squad
Tetek - pushing the edges of our first team. Should be good enough. First XVIII
Camara - looks promising, not really a consistent champ player yet - OK Squad
Clarke - looks a bit shy of Champ standard, but has scored some good goals and could do a job - OK Squad
Ehibhatiomhan - could potentially break through for the squad. Maybe Squad

I make it that whilst most probably aren't ready to fill out the first XVIII, they could probably fill out the remaining 6 or 7 squad positions

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Re: Relegation

by Stranded » 10 Jan 2022 14:29

Snowflake Royal
Coppells Lost Coat There is a big assumption that the kids are ready to step up next season...i am not sure they are good enough to be able to compete in L1 yet. Yes a few have looked alright so far. Some had there time to shine on Saturday and if anything it showed how unprepared they are to play L1 football.
So relegation should not be seen as this reset button to look forward to.

So, let's take a look at this.


Southwood - is performing broadly at Championship level - 1st XI
Andresson - Already getting some L1 experience with Morecambe 1st XVIII
Boyce-Clarke - unknown but promising
Bristow - seems a little out of his depth at Championship level but some promise there. Ok Squad
Ashcroft - seems a bit lightweight and unready for Championship, Maybe Squad
Dorsett - playing ok at L2 already Ok Squad
Holzman - was poor against Kiddie, on just one game not remotely ready - Not Ready
Stickland - unclear, but seemed ok in cameo
Osorio - probably a little way off yet, but promising and who knows in a year Maybe Squad
Tetek - pushing the edges of our first team. Should be good enough. First XVIII
Camara - looks promising, not really a consistent champ player yet - OK Squad
Clarke - looks a bit shy of Champ standard, but has scored some good goals and could do a job - OK Squad
Ehibhatiomhan - could potentially break through for the squad. Maybe Squad


So assuming we have to ship out everyone else to meet a reduced relegation budget that leaves us with a potential side of:

Southwood

New Player
New Player
New Player
New Player

New Player
New Player
New Player

New Player
New Player

New Player

Bench: Andresson, Tetek, Clarke, Camara, Bristow, Osario, Dorsett

:wink: HMS Piss the League :lol:


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Snowflake Royal
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Re: Relegation

by Snowflake Royal » 10 Jan 2022 14:33

Stranded
Snowflake Royal
Coppells Lost Coat There is a big assumption that the kids are ready to step up next season...i am not sure they are good enough to be able to compete in L1 yet. Yes a few have looked alright so far. Some had there time to shine on Saturday and if anything it showed how unprepared they are to play L1 football.
So relegation should not be seen as this reset button to look forward to.

So, let's take a look at this.


Southwood - is performing broadly at Championship level - 1st XI
Andresson - Already getting some L1 experience with Morecambe 1st XVIII
Boyce-Clarke - unknown but promising
Bristow - seems a little out of his depth at Championship level but some promise there. Ok Squad
Ashcroft - seems a bit lightweight and unready for Championship, Maybe Squad
Dorsett - playing ok at L2 already Ok Squad
Holzman - was poor against Kiddie, on just one game not remotely ready - Not Ready
Stickland - unclear, but seemed ok in cameo
Osorio - probably a little way off yet, but promising and who knows in a year Maybe Squad
Tetek - pushing the edges of our first team. Should be good enough. First XVIII
Camara - looks promising, not really a consistent champ player yet - OK Squad
Clarke - looks a bit shy of Champ standard, but has scored some good goals and could do a job - OK Squad
Ehibhatiomhan - could potentially break through for the squad. Maybe Squad


So assuming we have to ship out everyone else to meet a reduced relegation budget that leaves us with a potential side of:

Southwood

New Player
New Player
New Player
New Player

New Player
New Player
New Player

New Player
New Player

New Player

Bench: Andresson, Tetek, Clarke, Camara, Bristow, Osario, Dorsett

:wink: HMS Piss the League :lol:

We won't need to ship everyone out though will we. We could even extend a few.

No one is expecting the Academy to be our first XI next year. Or if we kept the whole first team squad that we'd piss the league. :P

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Re: Relegation

by blythspartan » 10 Jan 2022 15:02

Barney
blythspartan
Snowflake Royal Well Moore is £1.5m of that instantly if we shift him.

And a 10% relegation wage reduction would do another £1.6m

Halfway there almost instantly.


I appreciate this is a big IF but if we were fighting for promotion in League 1 we could get bigger crowds than we are currently attracting in the Championship. Oxford, Swindon and Pompey would all be great games and attract big crowds.


On the other side of the coin, Oxford or Pompey (or both) may be in a higher division...Swindon may well still be in League two.
And we'll have the possible delights of Mansfield, Crawley, Salford, Harrogate, Walsall etc to look forward to. And these will NOT be decent crowds. We HAVE to stay up.


Actually, Sunderland, Wycombe, Oxford, Plymouth, Derby, Mk Dons, Pompey, Sheff Weds, Ipswich, Cheltenham, Charlton, Wimbledon, Gillingham and Cambridge would all bring a decent following. Everyone is entitled to their opinion but I don’t believe relegation would be a huge disaster.

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Re: Relegation

by Snowflake Royal » 10 Jan 2022 15:21

blythspartan
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blythspartan
I appreciate this is a big IF but if we were fighting for promotion in League 1 we could get bigger crowds than we are currently attracting in the Championship. Oxford, Swindon and Pompey would all be great games and attract big crowds.


On the other side of the coin, Oxford or Pompey (or both) may be in a higher division...Swindon may well still be in League two.
And we'll have the possible delights of Mansfield, Crawley, Salford, Harrogate, Walsall etc to look forward to. And these will NOT be decent crowds. We HAVE to stay up.


Actually, Sunderland, Wycombe, Oxford, Plymouth, Derby, Mk Dons, Pompey, Sheff Weds, Ipswich, Cheltenham, Charlton, Wimbledon, Gillingham and Cambridge would all bring a decent following. Everyone is entitled to their opinion but I don’t believe relegation would be a huge disaster.

Oooo. League games against Cambridge would be gr8!

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Re: Relegation

by Coppells Lost Coat » 10 Jan 2022 15:40

Snowflake Royal
Southwood - is performing broadly at Championship level - 1st XI
Andresson - Already getting some L1 experience with Morecambe 1st XVIII
Boyce-Clarke - unknown but promising
Bristow - seems a little out of his depth at Championship level but some promise there. Ok Squad
Ashcroft - seems a bit lightweight and unready for Championship, Maybe Squad
Dorsett - playing ok at L2 already Ok Squad
Holzman - was poor against Kiddie, on just one game not remotely ready - Not Ready
Stickland - unclear, but seemed ok in cameo
Osorio - probably a little way off yet, but promising and who knows in a year Maybe Squad
Tetek - pushing the edges of our first team. Should be good enough. First XVIII
Camara - looks promising, not really a consistent champ player yet - OK Squad
Clarke - looks a bit shy of Champ standard, but has scored some good goals and could do a job - OK Squad
Ehibhatiomhan - could potentially break through for the squad. Maybe Squad

I make it that whilst most probably aren't ready to fill out the first XVIII, they could probably fill out the remaining 6 or 7 squad positions


LOL
So basically the academy team isn't ready for L1 except for a GK and we would need to replace most of the team with mercenaries / cheap replacements for those who dont want to play in L1. I cant imagine Joao, Meite Puscas , Moore, Ejaria wanting league 1, and thats half from the remaining 8 in contract. We could easily be down to 4 players if people dont get their shit together - worst case scenario.

Obviously a lot of players will sign a new contracts with us but not the ones who are established champ players. And we could do some shrewd signings and get a few tidy players in.
Relegation would be a disaster for the club. As a fan, yeah it might be more enjoyable but the football will suffer. If anyone thinks playing Portsmouth, the arm pit of the south coast, as a positive.... needs to give there head a wobble


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Re: Relegation

by Snowflake Royal » 10 Jan 2022 16:34

Coppells Lost Coat
Snowflake Royal
Southwood - is performing broadly at Championship level - 1st XI
Andresson - Already getting some L1 experience with Morecambe 1st XVIII
Boyce-Clarke - unknown but promising
Bristow - seems a little out of his depth at Championship level but some promise there. Ok Squad
Ashcroft - seems a bit lightweight and unready for Championship, Maybe Squad
Dorsett - playing ok at L2 already Ok Squad
Holzman - was poor against Kiddie, on just one game not remotely ready - Not Ready
Stickland - unclear, but seemed ok in cameo
Osorio - probably a little way off yet, but promising and who knows in a year Maybe Squad
Tetek - pushing the edges of our first team. Should be good enough. First XVIII
Camara - looks promising, not really a consistent champ player yet - OK Squad
Clarke - looks a bit shy of Champ standard, but has scored some good goals and could do a job - OK Squad
Ehibhatiomhan - could potentially break through for the squad. Maybe Squad

I make it that whilst most probably aren't ready to fill out the first XVIII, they could probably fill out the remaining 6 or 7 squad positions


LOL
So basically the academy team isn't ready for L1 except for a GK and we would need to replace most of the team with mercenaries / cheap replacements for those who dont want to play in L1. I cant imagine Joao, Meite Puscas , Moore, Ejaria wanting league 1, and thats half from the remaining 8 in contract. We could easily be down to 4 players if people dont get their shit together - worst case scenario.

Obviously a lot of players will sign a new contracts with us but not the ones who are established champ players. And we could do some shrewd signings and get a few tidy players in.
Relegation would be a disaster for the club. As a fan, yeah it might be more enjoyable but the football will suffer. If anyone thinks playing Portsmouth, the arm pit of the south coast, as a positive.... needs to give there head a wobble

I certainly hope Moore doesn't fancy L1 and oxf*rd off. That would free up enough money for at least 3 good L1 players.

Meite would be the only one I'd see as a real loss in terms of delivery on value.

And for each who goes, we have extend the contract of someone cheaper and afford a new L1 player.

Very conservative look at the Academy based on where we are now too. More games for any of the more fringe ones between now and relegation could easily revise them up to first team readiness.

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Re: Relegation

by Zip » 10 Jan 2022 17:10

Coppells Lost Coat
Snowflake Royal
Southwood - is performing broadly at Championship level - 1st XI
Andresson - Already getting some L1 experience with Morecambe 1st XVIII
Boyce-Clarke - unknown but promising
Bristow - seems a little out of his depth at Championship level but some promise there. Ok Squad
Ashcroft - seems a bit lightweight and unready for Championship, Maybe Squad
Dorsett - playing ok at L2 already Ok Squad
Holzman - was poor against Kiddie, on just one game not remotely ready - Not Ready
Stickland - unclear, but seemed ok in cameo
Osorio - probably a little way off yet, but promising and who knows in a year Maybe Squad
Tetek - pushing the edges of our first team. Should be good enough. First XVIII
Camara - looks promising, not really a consistent champ player yet - OK Squad
Clarke - looks a bit shy of Champ standard, but has scored some good goals and could do a job - OK Squad
Ehibhatiomhan - could potentially break through for the squad. Maybe Squad

I make it that whilst most probably aren't ready to fill out the first XVIII, they could probably fill out the remaining 6 or 7 squad positions


LOL
So basically the academy team isn't ready for L1 except for a GK and we would need to replace most of the team with mercenaries / cheap replacements for those who dont want to play in L1. I cant imagine Joao, Meite Puscas , Moore, Ejaria wanting league 1, and thats half from the remaining 8 in contract. We could easily be down to 4 players if people dont get their shit together - worst case scenario.

Obviously a lot of players will sign a new contracts with us but not the ones who are established champ players. And we could do some shrewd signings and get a few tidy players in.
Relegation would be a disaster for the club. As a fan, yeah it might be more enjoyable but the football will suffer. If anyone thinks playing Portsmouth, the arm pit of the south coast, as a positive.... needs to give there head a wobble



I reckon we would be down to 8,000 gates in League 1. Any manager would have a huge rebuilding job practically from scratch and working with a transfer embargo.
I agree. Relegation would be very damaging.

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Re: Relegation

by Royal Rother » 10 Jan 2022 17:13

I suggested a reset would be a good idea about 5 years ago (buried on here somewhere I would imagine) to give the likes of Stacey, Fosu, Dickie, Cooper etc. an opportunity to grow with us - my suggestion was that even if we went down (which would have been likely) the youngsters had looked talented enough to challenge for promotion from L1 within a couple of years and anyway, such a change in direction would enable the club to get back on a more sensible / sustainable financial footing.

Looking at what those players have achieved I might have been correct, but who knows.

I am feeling the same now.

I know there are many arguments against this but I feel that without a change in management relegation this time is pretty much a banker so it might be forced on us - unfortunately I'm not sure the current batch of academy graduates are as good as Stacey & Co.

Whatever - I'm armchair only so it doesn't matter all that much to me, but I am tired of watching us - in a different way I find them as frustrating and tedious as the dire days of Stam. It's not just the results, it's the terrible tactics and abysmal game management that particularly gets my goat.

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Re: Relegation

by Snowflake Royal » 10 Jan 2022 17:18

Zip
Coppells Lost Coat
Snowflake Royal
Southwood - is performing broadly at Championship level - 1st XI
Andresson - Already getting some L1 experience with Morecambe 1st XVIII
Boyce-Clarke - unknown but promising
Bristow - seems a little out of his depth at Championship level but some promise there. Ok Squad
Ashcroft - seems a bit lightweight and unready for Championship, Maybe Squad
Dorsett - playing ok at L2 already Ok Squad
Holzman - was poor against Kiddie, on just one game not remotely ready - Not Ready
Stickland - unclear, but seemed ok in cameo
Osorio - probably a little way off yet, but promising and who knows in a year Maybe Squad
Tetek - pushing the edges of our first team. Should be good enough. First XVIII
Camara - looks promising, not really a consistent champ player yet - OK Squad
Clarke - looks a bit shy of Champ standard, but has scored some good goals and could do a job - OK Squad
Ehibhatiomhan - could potentially break through for the squad. Maybe Squad

I make it that whilst most probably aren't ready to fill out the first XVIII, they could probably fill out the remaining 6 or 7 squad positions


LOL
So basically the academy team isn't ready for L1 except for a GK and we would need to replace most of the team with mercenaries / cheap replacements for those who dont want to play in L1. I cant imagine Joao, Meite Puscas , Moore, Ejaria wanting league 1, and thats half from the remaining 8 in contract. We could easily be down to 4 players if people dont get their shit together - worst case scenario.

Obviously a lot of players will sign a new contracts with us but not the ones who are established champ players. And we could do some shrewd signings and get a few tidy players in.
Relegation would be a disaster for the club. As a fan, yeah it might be more enjoyable but the football will suffer. If anyone thinks playing Portsmouth, the arm pit of the south coast, as a positive.... needs to give there head a wobble



I reckon we would be down to 8,000 gates in League 1. Any manager would have a huge rebuilding job practically from scratch and working with a transfer embargo.
I agree. Relegation would be very damaging.

Start winning more and it wouldn’t be 8000. We managed 11,000+ last time we were there and mid-table.


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Re: Relegation

by Zip » 10 Jan 2022 17:23

Snowflake Royal
Zip
Coppells Lost Coat
LOL
So basically the academy team isn't ready for L1 except for a GK and we would need to replace most of the team with mercenaries / cheap replacements for those who dont want to play in L1. I cant imagine Joao, Meite Puscas , Moore, Ejaria wanting league 1, and thats half from the remaining 8 in contract. We could easily be down to 4 players if people dont get their shit together - worst case scenario.

Obviously a lot of players will sign a new contracts with us but not the ones who are established champ players. And we could do some shrewd signings and get a few tidy players in.
Relegation would be a disaster for the club. As a fan, yeah it might be more enjoyable but the football will suffer. If anyone thinks playing Portsmouth, the arm pit of the south coast, as a positive.... needs to give there head a wobble



I reckon we would be down to 8,000 gates in League 1. Any manager would have a huge rebuilding job practically from scratch and working with a transfer embargo.
I agree. Relegation would be very damaging.

Start winning more and it wouldn’t be 8000. We managed 11,000+ last time we were there and mid-table.


Big if especially with a scratch squad.

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Re: Relegation

by Millsy » 10 Jan 2022 17:24

I don't really care about going down but a couple of things bother me

1) if the owners leave/ lose interest as a result as someone pointed out a while back
2) if it then means we lose momentum in the academy. I suspect kids wouldn't mind coming to a good Champ-based academy, but League One? Not sure, I really don't know how it works. I suspect it'll damage our chances, but perhaps someone (who knows not speculates like me) can shed more light on this/educate me.

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Re: Relegation

by Snowflake Royal » 10 Jan 2022 17:26

Zip
Snowflake Royal
Zip

I reckon we would be down to 8,000 gates in League 1. Any manager would have a huge rebuilding job practically from scratch and working with a transfer embargo.
I agree. Relegation would be very damaging.

Start winning more and it wouldn’t be 8000. We managed 11,000+ last time we were there and mid-table.


Big if especially with a scratch squad.

Wouldn't expect to compete at the top first year given our current constraints... but the one after once the shite has gone? Nothing is guaranteed, but there's a good old chance we'd be at the right end IMO.

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Re: Relegation

by Zip » 10 Jan 2022 17:30

Snowflake Royal
Zip
Snowflake Royal Start winning more and it wouldn’t be 8000. We managed 11,000+ last time we were there and mid-table.


Big if especially with a scratch squad.

Wouldn't expect to compete at the top first year given our current constraints... but the one after once the shite has gone? Nothing is guaranteed, but there's a good old chance we'd be at the right end IMO.



Hmmmm depends whether we start dealing sensibly in the transfer market and Academy boys come through. Who knows? The thought of driving to midweek games at home to the likes of Rochdale isn’t appealing.

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Re: Relegation

by Snowflake Royal » 10 Jan 2022 17:33

Zip
Snowflake Royal
Zip
Big if especially with a scratch squad.

Wouldn't expect to compete at the top first year given our current constraints... but the one after once the shite has gone? Nothing is guaranteed, but there's a good old chance we'd be at the right end IMO.



Hmmmm depends whether we start dealing sensibly in the transfer market and Academy boys come through. Who knows? The thought of driving to midweek games at home to the likes of Rochdale isn’t appealing.

Well yes. We'd need to stop being an absolute shambles. But we don't have to stay shit, as long as we start making decent decisions.

Though that change probably requires Dai to do one.

Never really bothered me much who we're playing. Even more so now. I want to see us play, and preferably win fairly regularly.

38% / 35% / 27% would do me as
a rough baseline, skewed a little towards Home obviously. About 67 points.

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Re: Relegation

by CountryRoyal » 10 Jan 2022 17:46

I haven’t seen anything in our current crop of youth to suggest they’d be competitive in League One.

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Re: Relegation

by Barney » 10 Jan 2022 18:13

Totally agree with Zip and CR.

No one can say if we will be competitive in League One. We would have less season ticket holders. less revenue through the gate,
and a massvie drop in revenue from Sky. Take into account that far less than 30% of income is through season tickets and gate receipts.
Like most clubs in the Championship, it is the revenue from Sky TV which keeps us going. We would see a drop of between 85%-90% from Sky if we were in League one.

Ask any fan of Portsmouth, Bolton, Sunderland, Ipswich etc etc if they have found it better in the lower leagues !!!!

I can only assume that folks say "it would be OK to be relegated" have quite honestly, never been there !

Must must stay up. And if anyone wants to look forward to a game against Poxford or Pompey.....let's play them in the Championship.

Seriously....relegation would be a massive blow to the club. Please don't think otherwise.

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