BFTG - Swansea

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leon
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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by leon » 03 Jan 2019 12:10

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You know the youth set up better than me so you know that in terms of the step up to senior level development it is rarely linear. There's always peaks and troughs and with younger players that usually is even more self evident.

Kelly suffered in the same way. The key point is do they recover when after something of a meteoric rise they suddenly go thorough a dip in form/confidence. Kelly may or may not get back to being the player we thought we had when he first broke through but there's still time. To write off Richards ( not referring to you here SCIAG but I've seen a lot of nonsense spoken on here about his abilities) who's been hampered with a few injuries along the way is extremely premature.

I mean I get that we're all pretty pissed off at the moment but I've even seen Loader (who was supposed to be the saviour a month ago) referred to as someone who's League 1/2 at best. A regular scorer for country at youth level plus reserve team level and someone we've nurtured since a young age just casually written off because he's not the messiah we desperately need.

The form of Rinomhota and to a lesser degree the pretty assured debuts of Osho/MacIntyre have been as good as it gets as far as any joy from this miserable year has gone. But those players, should they continue to play for us, will have games where they make mistakes too and when that happens I hope we don't suddenly all decide they're simply not up to it.

Time and time again over the course of the last 18 months the vast majority of the senior squad players have demonstrated they are woefully short of what is required. Frankly I'd just annex at least a dozen of them as being not good enough before I'd write off a 20 year old who, mainly due to the aforementioned injuries, has only made 14 starts in 18 months since his promising debut. he's got room to come back stronger and learn. I'm not sure that applies to half our current senior squad.

Yeah really good post, as usual you are the voice of reason.


Agreed. Quality, rational post.

Youngsters need to be protected during matches, having to cover for lazy senior players shouldn’t happen. They’re the issue here.

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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by muirinho » 03 Jan 2019 12:20

leon Youngsters need to be protected during matches, having to cover for lazy senior players shouldn’t happen. They’re the issue here.


+1000 Barrow is the issue, for instance, not Richards.

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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by biff » 03 Jan 2019 12:22

Richards has been left terribly exposed. We can see his recovery tackles and blocks are brilliant, so his defending is certainly getting there for a young chap. But until he gets support in front of him, he's going to be bullied and it will kill his confidence/ development. Also lovely to see an effective attacker at left back, looks pretty handy approaching the final third.

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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by 3points » 03 Jan 2019 13:20

Many were berating Blackett when he was playing at left back. He too got bugger all cover from Barrow and was constantly double teamed. Blackett has looked pretty solid as a centre back, and that's without a decent CDM as well. Beerens provided a better level of cover than Barrow, but McAnuff is the gold standard though (and McLeary in his pomp). Perhaps we should re-sign Jobi

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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by 3points » 03 Jan 2019 13:24

muirinho
Hoop Blah I don't think the Academy was costing £1m 15 years ago, so I'm not sure where the £30m cost comes from.


Yep. Also, the PL pays a fair whack of the costs while it is a Cat 1. So since we became Cat 1, it's less than 2 million a year - it would have been even less before that. It's probably more like £15 million over 15 years. If even that.


The contribution is about £1m towards the costs. Blackburn's Cat 1 was costing them (after subsidy) £3m per year. The Venkys took a long hard look at it before deciding to stick with it.

Interestingly Huddersfield decided to get rid of their academy as the only player they developed in about 20 years was John Stead. Now that isn't a good return on investment. I think ours has been pretty good overall and it also provides a bit of fan excitement seeing who the next hot talent might be


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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by 3points » 03 Jan 2019 13:35

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Maneki Neko doubt very much that weve recouped our academy investments with all the money we have received for academy players weve sold.
id imagine its pretty close even if we include money saved by not having to buy players.

that would be the first to go if it was my business

Academy has been running about 15 years? So about £25m - £33m.

Just from transfer market which doesn't list all fees, include further money from sell ons and I think seriously under cooks Gylfi's fee that's:
Gylfi - £4.6m
Tish - £5.3m
Dom Sam - £0.5m
Big Hec - £4.8m
McCarthy - £3.4m
Henry - £0.6m
Cox - £0.4m

£19.6m

And I didn't include Antonio or Long.

I think it's fair to say the Academy is pretty much paying for itself in outgoing transfer fees, let alone what it is saving us in spending on them.

We might have to downgrade it if we don't bounce back quickly, but it won't go completely or immediately.

I think transfermarkt stores its fees as Euros, and the exchange rate has dropped dramatically since we sold Gylfi. His fee was reported as a club record, so we can safely add £2m onto that.

This also misses the seven-figure sum we received for Cooper. Throw that in and we're within loose change of £25m, which seems to me like a reasonable high-end estimate (agree with Hoop that £30m seems too high but don't want to low-ball it).

And of course the likes of Pearce, Karacan, and HRK all ended up leaving on free transfers after making hundreds of appearances.

Muir's post has come through while I was writing this one. Rinomhota came to us from AFC Portchester, who play in the ninth tier - he'd have been able to go to anyone with a Cat 4 academy and would probably have jumped at any professional club. Harry Cardwell, who we signed from Hull, is probably a better example, but obviously didn't do as well in the first team - but maybe the next player we poach from a Cat 2 or 3 club will do.

Was about to post the same thing re: Cooper, and also Pearce, Jem and HRK. Also doesn't include sell on clauses for the likes of Jack Stacey, Piece Sweeney and others over the years which we don;t really know much about.

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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by Snowflake Royal » 03 Jan 2019 13:38

Hoop Blah I don't think the Academy was costing £1m 15 years ago, so I'm not sure where the £30m cost comes from.

I went on the basis of Cat 1 cost at least £2m when it was introduced, so did a range of about £1.5m / year to a little over 2.

Basically, I deliberately overguestimated cost and understated recovery.

And Brendy just ignored the bits about Gylfi's fee, minor fees for obscure players not being recorded and sell one.

We've had literally hundreds of appearances from Academy products over the years, - I think I worked out in some seasons we'd had close to 100 appearances just in that season. We've saved tens of millions in transfer fees.

And none of that accounts for community outreach and the additional support it promotes.

There's no way that the Academy isn't firmly in the positive financially in terms of it's value to us.

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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by Hoop Blah » 03 Jan 2019 14:02

Snowflake Royal We've had literally hundreds of appearances from Academy products over the years, - I think I worked out in some seasons we'd had close to 100 appearances just in that season. We've saved tens of millions in transfer fees.

And none of that accounts for community outreach and the additional support it promotes.


We've had the best part of 50 appearances this season already.

That last point is something I've banged on about before. At a time when the club is losing any connection with the community I think it's something that is of real value to the club in at least trying to maintain some semblance of it's spirit.

That's not to say brendy can't scrap it in his fantasy world, or the owners can't do it for real. I just think it would be a big mistake.

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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by RoyalBlue » 03 Jan 2019 14:06

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Snowflake Royal Bollocks. When did the last club our size go out of business?

At absolute worst we might find ourselves in the conference briefly having had an administration or two.

And there's no point not accepting it because it'll probably be bad if it's inevitable. That will only make it worse because we've ignored the potential to use it to get our house in order and prepare.


Wimbledon would be the only one which springs immediately to mind, but I don't know whether the two clubs are comparable.

I would say not. Wimbledon didn't have a ground and were a league club for less than 30 years.


If it comes to the crunch, would we have a ground?


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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by Maneki Neko » 03 Jan 2019 14:08

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Hoop Blah I don't think the Academy was costing £1m 15 years ago, so I'm not sure where the £30m cost comes from.

I went on the basis of Cat 1 cost at least £2m when it was introduced, so did a range of about £1.5m / year to a little over 2.

Basically, I deliberately overguestimated cost and understated recovery.

And Brendy just ignored the bits about Gylfi's fee, minor fees for obscure players not being recorded and sell one.

We've had literally hundreds of appearances from Academy products over the years, - I think I worked out in some seasons we'd had close to 100 appearances just in that season. We've saved tens of millions in transfer fees.

And none of that accounts for community outreach and the additional support it promotes.

There's no way that the Academy isn't firmly in the positive financially in terms of it's value to us.


nope.too late, its gone, ive closed it down.

We've saved tens of millions in transfer fees.

LOL.maybe if all our graduates were gylfis

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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by SCIAG » 03 Jan 2019 14:36

I'm struggling to get to £20m too. Maybe if Loader proves to be an upgrade on £7m Aluko and McIntyre or Osho do better than £4m Ilori then that sort of claim will start to add up.

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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by Maneki Neko » 03 Jan 2019 14:40

JR Setting aside some very inept defending, I found today hugely encouraging.

It was the best we have looked as an attacking unit since before the Stam era - much more variety in approach play and intent - overall an exciting insight in to what the coming months will bring.

The style of play is also very easy on the eye - it really is impressive that Jose has managed to achieve this step-change so quickly - and that bodes well for him being able to implement his ideas in the upcoming crucial matches.

I’m sure he’ll cut out the risky playing around the keeper / find a keeper with decent judgement.

As football fans it is in our nature to make knee-jerk reactions based on scoreline rather than performance. I would encourage fans to give the new man a chance.

We need to remember that we have a threadbare backline at the moment. If this can be shorn up and we survive this season then I am confident we will be back challenging for promotion next season playing an attractive, dynamic brand of football.


sort of agree here.
take the first defensive mistake away and that's a totally different game.
not that that kind of though experiment is worth anything to us

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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by Maneki Neko » 03 Jan 2019 14:41

RoyalBlue
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Wimbledon would be the only one which springs immediately to mind, but I don't know whether the two clubs are comparable.

I would say not. Wimbledon didn't have a ground and were a league club for less than 30 years.


If it comes to the crunch, would we have a ground?


whatever you reckon, crashing through a couple of divisions, a couple of administrations and possibly losing our ground might be considered pretty disasterous, even if the club doesn't actually disappear altogether


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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by Denver Royal » 03 Jan 2019 14:53

Apols if this has already been addressed/answered, but...If we went down, how long could our academy survive as is, before being downgraded? In other words, how soon would we need to get promoted in order for there to be little or no affect on the academy? I'm asking about time frames, because quite a few have said we are no certainties to bounce straight back. Thanks.

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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by 72 bus » 03 Jan 2019 15:07

Denver Royal Apols if this has already been addressed/answered, but...If we went down, how long could our academy survive as is, before being downgraded? In other words, how soon would we need to get promoted in order for there to be little or no affect on the academy? I'm asking about time frames, because quite a few have said we are no certainties to bounce straight back. Thanks.


It will survive as long as the owners are willing to pay for it, and it will be even more important in L1 as the young players will find it less of a step up.

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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by Tilehurstsouthbank » 03 Jan 2019 16:38

3points Many were berating Blackett when he was playing at left back. He too got bugger all cover from Barrow and was constantly double teamed. Blackett has looked pretty solid as a centre back, and that's without a decent CDM as well. Beerens provided a better level of cover than Barrow, but McAnuff is the gold standard though (and McLeary in his pomp). Perhaps we should re-sign Jobi


Maybe playing Blackett at LB with Richards in front of him would be a good option on the left...

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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by 3points » 03 Jan 2019 16:58

Tilehurstsouthbank
3points Many were berating Blackett when he was playing at left back. He too got bugger all cover from Barrow and was constantly double teamed. Blackett has looked pretty solid as a centre back, and that's without a decent CDM as well. Beerens provided a better level of cover than Barrow, but McAnuff is the gold standard though (and McLeary in his pomp). Perhaps we should re-sign Jobi


Maybe playing Blackett at LB with Richards in front of him would be a good option on the left...

wouldn't object to that really. Obita could play that role too if he ever comes back from injury

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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by muirinho » 03 Jan 2019 17:05

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3points Many were berating Blackett when he was playing at left back. He too got bugger all cover from Barrow and was constantly double teamed. Blackett has looked pretty solid as a centre back, and that's without a decent CDM as well. Beerens provided a better level of cover than Barrow, but McAnuff is the gold standard though (and McLeary in his pomp). Perhaps we should re-sign Jobi


Maybe playing Blackett at LB with Richards in front of him would be a good option on the left...

wouldn't object to that really. Obita could play that role too if he ever comes back from injury


Was just about to start typing this - Obita always struck me as being better offensively than defensively.

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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by Snowflake Royal » 03 Jan 2019 17:55

SCIAG I'm struggling to get to £20m too. Maybe if Loader proves to be an upgrade on £7m Aluko and McIntyre or Osho do better than £4m Ilori then that sort of claim will start to add up.

Think how much we spent on Ilori, Blackett, Evans, Edwards act.

Then think about how much we'd have had to have spent to have players who contributed as much as all our academy appearances. It'd be huge!

For example, think how many appearances Pearce, Hector and Cooper made and then think about much we spent on centre backs in similar periods and how much those signings played.

Ie Pearce and co made 280 league starts and cost basically nothing in fees,

vs

Duberry, Mills and Gorkss who cost about £3.7m and made about 190 starts.

It's not about what we sold Pearce for, or what we'd have had to pay to sign him at the point he broke through, because there's no way we're signing someone o his experience and playing them that much. The only route to the first team like that is through the Academy.

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Re: BFTG - Swansea

by Zip » 03 Jan 2019 18:30

Personally I think our Academy is worth every penny and our youngsters have done well

Rinomhota. Great attitude, hard working, shows pace at times and a decent passer.

Loader Too much is expected from him. He is only 18 but has showed maturity. Often forced to drop deep to get involved but has linked up play well and now has an assist to his name.

Osho Only one start but looked composed and positive. Impressive.

McIntyre Not seen him play but apparently played very well

Richards. He has skill and is a positive player but regardless of the lack of help from Barrow is defensively naive. Why not play him on the wing? He cannot be worse than our current wingers,

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