The League of 4

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Snowflake Royal
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Re: The League of 4

by Snowflake Royal » 10 Feb 2019 14:00

Snowball
Snowflake Royal Right now we're averaging about a point a game, so we're looking at a repeat of last year where the only thing to save us was the number of abysmal teams at the bottom. But there are fewer this season and we can't keep relying on there being three worse teams every year, because our luck will run out.

Wins soon are a must.


Point a game if you include Gomes "first" v Swansea

but 6 from 5 since then with very clear signs of improvement

1.2 ppg for the rest of the season would probably be enough but we must not lose at home to Rotherham

I mean sure clear signs of improvement defensively, but clear regression offensively. I'll believe the improvement when I see results to match.

The resurgent Swift who is playing much better under Gomes apparently still hasn't delivered much of anything, for example.

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Re: The League of 4

by Sutekh » 13 Feb 2019 09:31

Pressure on Reading being turned up.

Rotherham came back from 2 down to get a point at Hull and Bolton went and won 1-0 at Birmingham.

Anyone see that coming....

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Re: The League of 4

by Forbury Lion » 13 Feb 2019 10:06

Royal Rother I believe we will stay up comfortably.
You have a different definition of comfortably to me, If we were currently mid table and holding our position I would make the same statement.

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Re: The League of 4

by Snowflake Royal » 13 Feb 2019 10:30

What's a reasonable definition of comfortably?

Safe with n game(s) to spare?
Finish no lower than nth?
Finish at least n points clear?

I'd probably go with comfortavle being safe with at least 2 to play, finish no lower than 19th and end at least 5 points clear personally.

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Re: The League of 4

by Hendo » 13 Feb 2019 10:42

Snowflake Royal What's a reasonable definition of comfortably?

Safe with n game(s) to spare?
Finish no lower than nth?
Finish at least n points clear?

I'd probably go with comfortavle being safe with at least 2 to play, finish no lower than 19th and end at least 5 points clear personally.


I'd go with 2 games to play = comfortable.


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Re: The League of 4

by Gunny Fishcake » 13 Feb 2019 11:23

I think most agree it will go to the wire....which does not bode well.

West Brom home , followed by Boro away and Brum home last game .

Can't see us getting anything out of West Brom and Boro who will both be in the shake up for promotion

As for Brum at home last game , they'll bring 3000 and our record against them last game of the season is not very good at all .

Let's hope our fate is decided before then , but I've a strong feeling it's down to that last game
Last edited by Gunny Fishcake on 13 Feb 2019 11:25, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: The League of 4

by Victor Meldrew » 13 Feb 2019 11:24

I hope Rother is right and we start the comfortable period with a win tonight.
Don't forget, he hasn't seen us play this season otherwise I suspect he would be feeling like the rest of us, less than comfortable.

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Re: The League of 4

by Hendo » 13 Feb 2019 11:27

Gunny Fishcake I think most agree it will go to the wire....which does not bode well.

West Brom home , followed by Boro away and Brum home last game .

Can't see us getting anything out of West Brom and Boro who will both be in the shake up for promotion

As for Brum at home last game , they'll bring 3000 and our record against them last game of the season is not very good at all .

Let's hope our fate is decided before then , but I've a strong feeling it's down to that last game


Well they won't, will they.

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Re: The League of 4

by windermereROYAL » 13 Feb 2019 11:39

Gunny Fishcake I think most agree it will go to the wire....which does not bode well.

West Brom home , followed by Boro away and Brum home last game .

Can't see us getting anything out of West Brom and Boro who will both be in the shake up for promotion

As for Brum at home last game , they'll bring 3000 and our record against them last game of the season is not very good at all .

Let's hope our fate is decided before then , but I've a strong feeling it's down to that last game


We`ve got a few hard games during the final run-in without doubt, add Bristol city and Stoke away to that, but it`s not as horrendous as Rotherhams,
Norwich H
Derby A
Forest H
Villa H
Stoke A
Swansea A
Birmingham H
WBA A
Boro H.
I actually think we have more to fear from Bolton, they are more than capable of stringing some results together.


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Re: The League of 4

by Sutekh » 13 Feb 2019 22:34

Good response to Tuesday night’s pressure application despite a shocking 1st half performance

Bottom 6 now...

19. Wigan - 32 played, 34 points > -14 gd
20. Millwall - 31 played, 31 points > -11 gd
21. Reading - 32 played, 29 points > -11 gd
=====================================
22. Rotherham - 32 played, 28 points > -20 gd
23. Bolton - 32 played, 26 points > -26 gd
24. Ipswich - 32 played, 19 points > -31 gd

Saturday games

Bolton v Norwich
Ipswich v Stoke
Rotherham v Sheff Wed (1pm)
Sheff U v Reading

Going to be tricky to stay out of the bottom 3 I reckon

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Re: The League of 4

by Crowbar6753 » 13 Feb 2019 23:02

Sutekh Good response to Tuesday night’s pressure application despite a shocking 1st half performance

Bottom 6 now...

19. Wigan - 32 played, 34 points > -14 gd
20. Millwall - 31 played, 31 points > -11 gd
21. Reading - 32 played, 29 points > -11 gd
=====================================
22. Rotherham - 32 played, 28 points > -20 gd
23. Bolton - 32 played, 26 points > -26 gd
24. Ipswich - 32 played, 19 points > -31 gd

Saturday games

Bolton v Norwich
Ipswich v Stoke
Rotherham v Sheff Wed (1pm)
Sheff U v Reading

Going to be tricky to stay out of the bottom 3 I reckon


Firstly, we needed the win tonight, and it was a tight affair and lets be honest, we dodged a bullet there as Blackburn outplayed us for long periods! but a win is a win :D
Now onto Sheffield on Saturday, for me this game is a bit like a free hit, we are expected to get nothing out of this game and if we played like we did in the first half then we'll get slaughtered!!
So let's go there with nothing to lose and see where it takes us, anything out of this game will be a bonus.

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Re: The League of 4

by Royal_jimmy » 14 Feb 2019 00:12

I'd call it the league of 5 now. Our win has sucked Millwall back in trouble.

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Re: The League of 4

by Sutekh » 14 Feb 2019 09:35

Royal_jimmy I'd call it the league of 5 now. Our win has sucked Millwall back in trouble.


Millwall play what will be their two games in the next 2 midweeks (replays allowing of course). Two dodgy away trips as well at Derby on 20th Feb and then at Hull on 26th Feb.


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Re: The League of 4

by Stranded » 14 Feb 2019 09:42

Sutekh Good response to Tuesday night’s pressure application despite a shocking 1st half performance

Bottom 6 now...

19. Wigan - 32 played, 34 points > -14 gd
20. Millwall - 31 played, 31 points > -11 gd
21. Reading - 32 played, 29 points > -11 gd
=====================================
22. Rotherham - 32 played, 28 points > -20 gd
23. Bolton - 32 played, 26 points > -26 gd
24. Ipswich - 32 played, 19 points > -31 gd

Saturday games

Bolton v Norwich
Ipswich v Stoke
Rotherham v Sheff Wed (1pm)
Sheff U v Reading

Going to be tricky to stay out of the bottom 3 I reckon


The only way we slip back in is a Rotherham win and us not winning (or Rotherham drawing and us losing 10-0). Rotherham have a derby game so who knows what will happen there.

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Re: The League of 4

by Stranded » 14 Feb 2019 09:45

Sutekh
Royal_jimmy I'd call it the league of 5 now. Our win has sucked Millwall back in trouble.


Millwall play what will be their two games in the next 2 midweeks (replays allowing of course). Two dodgy away trips as well at Derby on 20th Feb and then at Hull on 26th Feb.


Didn't realise that was their games - tough. Looks like if they make the quarters (and are probably favourites to do so) - then Bristol City (H) will also need to be shifted.

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Re: The League of 4

by Stranded » 14 Feb 2019 09:52

If we stick to the league of 4 - the table looks like this since New Years Day

1. Reading P7 Pts 9 GD -1
2. Rotherham P7 Pts 6 GD -3
3. Ipswich P7 Pts 4 GD -6
4. Bolton P7 Pts 4 GD -11

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Re: The League of 4

by Mr Optimist » 14 Feb 2019 10:12

I can't see Bolton beating Norwich on Saturday. After their wake up call at Preston last night they will be fired up not to repeat what happened, and Bolton are nowhere near Preston's current level.

Ipswich may get a point at home to Stoke but given the quality that there is still in the Stoke side they are massively underperforming at the moment but could come good against a wobbly Ipswich who have all the pressure on them. Draw or away win for me in this one.

Rotherham could beat Wednesday in a local derby at home, and will be encouraged by coming back from 2-0 down at Hull the other night. This one could be anything, but not unreasonable to think it will be a draw.

As for us, sadly I think we will lose, but narrowly. Sheffield United are not a spectacular team playing silky football. They are well organised, work hard and keep going. They will have done their homework on us and will put loads of pressure on the keeper passing it out and close all the space. The only chance we have is to keep it scoreless as long as possible so the crowd, turning up expecting a turkey shoot start to mutter and grumble by about the 70 minute mark, and then we get a smash and grab from a piece of quality from our man in the mask!

Ever the optimist, the clue is in the name.

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Re: The League of 4

by Delboy » 14 Feb 2019 10:20

If we beat Wigan they could be dragged back in as well. Key for us is Rinomhota or Ezatolahi need one of them to give bite in midfield

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Re: The League of 4

by The Prisoner » 14 Feb 2019 10:46

It's easy to become paranoid when you are down at the bottom, but the realities are that after 30 plus games the table doesn't lie and that the teams who are down there are there for a reason.

What that also means is that those teams - having been bobbins for two-thirds of the season - are unlikely to suddenly turn into world beaters and putting unbelievable runs together. Sure it does happen, but Wigan, Millwall, us, Rotherham, Bolton and Ipswich have won just 36 games between them all season from 191 games - less than 19%.

Looking at the trends of form over the last 10 games Ipswich are averaging 0.5 points per game, then Rotherham on 0.6, Bolton 0.8, Wigan 0.9, us 1 point per game and then Millwall 1.2. These figures are unlikely to fluctuate considerably between now and the end of the season.

Transposing those form returns to the remaining games is a good a place to start as any. That would leave the table as follows:

Millwall 49 points
Wigan 47
Reading 45
-----------------------------
Bolton 37
Rotherham 36
Ipswich 26

This projection is largely reflected in the odds.
Ipswich are a short as 1/50, Bolton as short as 1/10 and Rotherham are around 1/2 to go down. Then it is us, but we are drifting to around 6/5 on average having been shorter, Millwall are around 7/1 and Wigan around 18/1. IMO the bookies have got Millwall and Wigan the wrong way round, but they are both at prices which reflect an opinion that they should be safe.

Stoke on form are the only other team who could get involved, but realistically they are too strong and may even have enough points already. It is three from six, but I would much rather be in our position than the teams below on current form.

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Re: The League of 4

by Stranded » 14 Feb 2019 11:26

The Prisoner Looking at the trends of form over the last 10 games Ipswich are averaging 0.5 points per game, then Rotherham on 0.6, Bolton 0.8, Wigan 0.9, us 1 point per game and then Millwall 1.2. These figures are unlikely to fluctuate considerably between now and the end of the season.

Transposing those form returns to the remaining games is a good a place to start as any. That would leave the table as follows:

Millwall 49 points
Wigan 47
Reading 45
-----------------------------
Bolton 37
Rotherham 36
Ipswich 26



Interesting post - I tend to look at games this year as given our change of manager and style, that gives a better picture of what teams are doing now - a slightly smaller sample so more open to error but extrapolating 2019 form - you get a final table that looks like:

Wigan 50
Reading 47
Millwall 46
----------------
Rotherham 40
Bolton 34
Ipswich 27

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