Coronavirus outbreak

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Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 07:15

Jagermesiter1871
Snowball Statistics Released by Italian Authorities Today

Case Fatality Ratios

90-99 21.60%
80-89 18.80%
70-79 11.80%
60-69 03.20%
50-59 01.00%
00-49 00.30%

75% of reported cases are aged over 50

37.5% over the age of 70

Only 1.1% of reported cases were under 18

For all Cases

06.5% are completely asymptomatic
58.5% had mild or very mild symptoms.


Basically, if you are under 50, move on, nothing to see here

If you are exactly 72 and have CV-19, your chances of dying are exactly the same
as being in the wrong end at Fratton Park and cheering when the away side scores




Link to sauce plz






Link to JHU

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu

That's the home page, there's a direct link to map and numbers "The Map"

There is a box on the main page for "Get Daily Updates". A heavily-packed email
with lots of official data. Very Very Good resource


https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

This(numbers-wise) tends to lag by up to 24 Hours. I can see that because UK numbers lag

I keep a spreadsheet of the numbers but have a column that excludes the Chinese 81K

With the Chinese numbers currently static due to 99.9% shut-down, it "softens" what
is happening in the rest of the world.

So I say the world growth in cases, but separately can see the EuropeanN-S America/African stuff too

Some huge differences. It will be a while before we see if that is a reporting issue, a treatment issue,
or some racial immunity thing (which I doubt). Russia, for example seems virtually not to be getting it,
or having deaths. BUT PRESUME THEY ARE NOT COLLECTING DATA OR NOT REPORTING IT)

A laughable 114 cases, no deaths according to official statistics. They have 144-147 million depending
on whether you include Crimea, so "pro-rata should be somewhere around 5000 Cases 130 deaths
if as UK...

CUT and PASTE on Italy


Italy’s National Institute of Health is publishing daily COVID-19 data updates. The March 16 update reports 25,058 cases—including 2,339 healthcare workers—and 1,697 deaths nationwide. The case fatality ratio for individuals 90 years and older is 21.6%, 18.8% 80-89 years, 11.8% for 70-79 years, and 3.2% for 60-69 years. The CFR is 1% for individuals 50-59 years and 0.3% or less for all younger age ranges. Notably, nearly 75% of reported cases are individuals over the age of 50, including 37.4% over the age of 70. Only 1.1% of cases have been reported in individuals 18 years and younger. Based on data from 8,802 of Italy's cases, 6.5% were reported as asymptomatic and a total of 58.8% had mild or very mild disease or no symptoms.
Last edited by Snowball on 18 Mar 2020 07:24, edited 1 time in total.

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 07:21

Linden Jones' Tash The issue is more than just the specific mortality rate of the virus.

When the number of cases overwhelms the health system and it cannot cope, mortality from everything else goes up.

So if you are under 50 and have something that ordinarily would be managed by a hospital, chances are the management will be sub optimal.

Reducing transmission to suppress the virus is the only strategy until there is a vaccine.

Its going to impact every generation



Absolutely. Very good point.

Further we can add such troubles as maintaining policing, fire, sewage systems, water supplies, HEALTH-CARE, HM Forces, Electricity, Gas as workers in these areas get sick.

This is Good


https://m.youtube.com/watch?fbclid=IwAR ... ks6Nq7g6P4

Linden Jones' Tash
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Linden Jones' Tash » 18 Mar 2020 07:32

Assuming you are under 50 and don't have an elderly relative you might transmit it to,

Or have asthma or another chronic condition,

Or a BMI over 40,

If you need hospital care from next week onwards, it will be sub optimal as the system gets overwhelmed by respiratory cases,

Don't wait to practice social distancing and reduce transmission

Forbury Lion
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Forbury Lion » 18 Mar 2020 08:24

Bonzodog
Snowball Statistics Released by Italian Authorities Today

Case Fatality Ratios

90-99 21.60%
80-89 18.80%
70-79 11.80%
60-69 03.20%
50-59 01.00%
00-49 00.30%

75% of reported cases are aged over 50

37.5% over the age of 70

Only 1.1% of reported cases were under 18

For all Cases

06.5% are completely asymptomatic
58.5% had mild or very mild symptoms.


Basically, if you are under 50, move on, nothing to see here

If you are exactly 72 and have CV-19, your chances of dying are exactly the same
as being in the wrong end at Fratton Park and cheering when the away side scores


Why don’t the case fatality ratios add up to 100%?
maybe a few 100+ died? - at that age you probably only need the common cold to finish you off.

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 08:36

Linden Jones' Tash Assuming you are under 50 and don't have an elderly relative you might transmit it to,

Or have asthma or another chronic condition,

Or a BMI over 40,

If you need hospital care from next week onwards, it will be sub optimal as the system gets overwhelmed by respiratory cases,

Don't wait to practice social distancing and reduce transmission


I've been locked down since Friday 6th, tested 9th, still no result.

(That part of the system is also creaking badly. Longest wait to date is 11 days)

I live in Thatcham Town Centre. The streets don't look noticeably quieter as yet. This doesn't make the isolation better. You stand at the window, it's sunny, people moving to and fro...

As mentioned elsewhere, I look after two asylum-seekers and until yesterday I was being told THEY could go in and out. (Madness!) I got permission to keep them from School/College as a precaution, but they still aren't getting the seriousness (typical immortal teenagers)

It's a mess.


BTW Try Dr John Campbell on You-Tube.

His daily You-Tube posts are real, REALLY good


Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 08:37

Forbury Lion
Bonzodog
Snowball Statistics Released by Italian Authorities Today

Case Fatality Ratios

90-99 21.60%
80-89 18.80%
70-79 11.80%
60-69 03.20%
50-59 01.00%
00-49 00.30%

75% of reported cases are aged over 50

37.5% over the age of 70

Only 1.1% of reported cases were under 18

For all Cases

06.5% are completely asymptomatic
58.5% had mild or very mild symptoms.


Basically, if you are under 50, move on, nothing to see here

If you are exactly 72 and have CV-19, your chances of dying are exactly the same
as being in the wrong end at Fratton Park and cheering when the away side scores


Why don’t the case fatality ratios add up to 100%?
maybe a few 100+ died? - at that age you probably only need the common cold to finish you off.



Latest Italian total deaths is AT LEAST 2,500 and still rising. Almost all are 60+

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by CountryRoyal » 18 Mar 2020 09:01

Snowflake Royal
URZZZZ
Snowflake Royal They might as well keep my money, I haven't bothered with most the winter games anyway.


At least you may end up saving money on your Charlton top half finish :lol:

Only if one of us dies, I pay up.

Ooooo! Or the season is voided! Get in! You're right!!!


It was for charity IIRC Ian.

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CountryRoyal
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by CountryRoyal » 18 Mar 2020 09:02

Snowball
Forbury Lion
Bonzodog
Why don’t the case fatality ratios add up to 100%?
maybe a few 100+ died? - at that age you probably only need the common cold to finish you off.



Latest Italian total deaths is AT LEAST 2,500 and still rising. Almost all are 60+


As a matter of interest how many 60+ have died in Italy since the outbreak of non-coronavirus related stuff? Bet it’s also pretty oxf*rd high.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 09:17

CountryRoyal
Snowball
Forbury Lion maybe a few 100+ died? - at that age you probably only need the common cold to finish you off.



Latest Italian total deaths is AT LEAST 2,500 and still rising. Almost all are 60+


As a matter of interest how many 60+ have died in Italy since the outbreak of non-coronavirus related stuff? Bet it’s also pretty oxf*rd high.



UK 2018 had 23,000 "Excess Deaths" in November-February, that is 23,000 more deaths than expected if all months were the same. That is NOT "The Flu" but all deaths from all causes, including people freezing to death at home, homeless people dying on the streets, car crashes, anything. Presume Italy to be about the same for 2018.

Deaths this year will be hugely up

1. Coronavirus and complications

2. Seasonal Flu, Colds, Bronchitis, Pneumonia because care-quality will be down

3. Medium serious cases postponed turning into serious, even fatal cases.

4. Stress, Loneliness, Increased Suicide Rate?


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 09:23

I've started videoing from my isolation-flat.

Thatcham is (so far) more or less as busy.

Free Car Park in Thatcham Broadway full. At 10 AM on a Sunday it's empty

Doesn't look like people are taking this seriously (yet)

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CountryRoyal
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by CountryRoyal » 18 Mar 2020 09:27

Snowball I've started videoing from my isolation-flat.

Thatcham is (so far) more or less as busy.

Free Car Park in Thatcham Broadway full. At 10 AM on a Sunday it's empty

Doesn't look like people are taking this seriously (yet)


I beg to differ I think a lot of people are shitting themselves now.

It’s stupid, everyone should get it, kill the oldies and ease pressure on NHS. Some youth will suffer too but ultimately not enough to warrant the impending global recession which is inevitable if this continues for much longer. Cynical but true.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Winston Biscuit » 18 Mar 2020 09:30

Snowball I've started videoing from my isolation-flat.

Thatcham is (so far) more or less as busy.

Free Car Park in Thatcham Broadway full. At 10 AM on a Sunday it's empty

Doesn't look like people are taking this seriously (yet)


Thatcham looks like its full of zombies at the best of times tbf

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 09:37

CountryRoyal
Snowball I've started videoing from my isolation-flat.

Thatcham is (so far) more or less as busy.

Free Car Park in Thatcham Broadway full. At 10 AM on a Sunday it's empty

Doesn't look like people are taking this seriously (yet)


I beg to differ I think a lot of people are shitting themselves now.

It’s stupid, everyone should get it, kill the oldies and ease pressure on NHS. Some youth will suffer too but ultimately not enough to warrant the impending global recession which is inevitable if this continues for much longer. Cynical but true.



i meant they spent self isolating, social distancing


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SCIAG » 18 Mar 2020 10:37

Snowball The spread of MERS was ONLY in hospitals and required PROLONGED contact with an infected person, so drop that off your argument.

We didn’t see anything REMOTELY like this governmental reaction when SARS reared its head.

I don’t claim to be a virologist or an academic researcher but I CAN read and I’m only quoting official sources.

My analysis is just my analysis, something any reasonably-educated person could do.

It is FARCICAL to think the Chinese lock-down idea is the answer. If it was that easy, we could just shut everything down for three months, let the virus die, and all live happily-ever-after.

Your analysis gets basic epidemiology wrong and indeed calls it farcical.

If you stop transmission then unless the pathogen has a natural reservoir or can lie dormant, then the disease stops.

This is not farcical, it is a basic fact.

The reason total lockdown wouldn’t actually work perfectly is not biological, it’s economic, behavioural, and political. Total quarantine except for food delivery services would be unacceptable and would have knock-on effects.

In fairness you seem to be getting a better grip on the numbers, but you are completely failing to relate them to the real world.

I did one epidemiology module at university. I wouldn’t claim to be an expert but I can tell when someone is bullshitting.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Millsy » 18 Mar 2020 10:50

Ok here's something interesting.

It's a far fetched one and I admit I like to believe there is something to it, but I don't know.

I have suspected (and still do) that coronavirus has been around since before Xmas (I've had the most awful strange symptoms, totally out of character for me, even had to go home early one day which is unheard of- never ever take time off, have to be dying) and that the numbers already infected are much higher than we think.

I looked up some stats a couple of days ago and found that in all countries confirmed cases vs deaths seems to be around the 4% mark which is indeed VERY worrying compared to normal flu.

BUT

Numbers from Sweden, Germany, Norway yield only a 0.2% mortality rate, whcih would seem to be in keeping with the normal flu.

Now I knwo it's wishful thinking BUT using my full force of racist/ignorant/stereotypical thinking, the Germans and Scandies are probably much better at this sort of this in terms of numbers and have probably tested more effectively than us and might have picked up many more of the mild cases than we have. THIS IS TOTAL SPECULATION. But it does seem odd that these three countries, at the time I looked, seemed to be comign up with very reasonable numbers.

I know I'm clutching at straws here but it is not out of the question that I have had coronavirus, along with my whole family who were strangely unwell over the Xmas period and beyond and that there was a huge number of untested people.

It would be great to have some sort of IgG test asap to get everyone tested with to check the extent of herd immunity currently around and et more reasonable stats.

#I am not an expert and not pretending to be#

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Norfolk Royal » 18 Mar 2020 11:20

CountryRoyal
Snowball I've started videoing from my isolation-flat.

Thatcham is (so far) more or less as busy.

Free Car Park in Thatcham Broadway full. At 10 AM on a Sunday it's empty

Doesn't look like people are taking this seriously (yet)


I beg to differ I think a lot of people are shitting themselves now.

It’s stupid, everyone should get it, kill the oldies and ease pressure on NHS. Some youth will suffer too but ultimately not enough to warrant the impending global recession which is inevitable if this continues for much longer. Cynical but true.


Would explain why everyone is buying toilet rolls.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Forbury Lion » 18 Mar 2020 11:26

Any celebrity cornovirus deaths yet?

Euro-20 pushed back to 2021, unclear if they weill still call it Euro-20 of if the merchandise sellers will have to start editing the year with tippex and marker pens.

Slightly gutter that I once had the idea of registering websites like Euro2021 in case they ever had to break sequence, Didn't follow it through, could have made a few quid.

The inlaws whatsapp group has been active
Mother In Law very highly strung and talks about nothing else and how we're all going to die.
Brother in law's Estonian wife tells us we have to buy 100% Russian vodka and wash our hands and everything with it.
:roll:

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Millsy » 18 Mar 2020 11:34

My mates are reporting a vast drop in people on the streets and seeing as they make most of their income by mugging this is proving to be quite a difficult time for them.

I would politely ask that people walk around (espeically in dark alleyways if possible) more to accommodate for all strata of society.

Thanks.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by CountryRoyal » 18 Mar 2020 11:39

2 world wars, 1 world cup Ok here's something interesting.

It's a far fetched one and I admit I like to believe there is something to it, but I don't know.

I have suspected (and still do) that coronavirus has been around since before Xmas (I've had the most awful strange symptoms, totally out of character for me, even had to go home early one day which is unheard of- never ever take time off, have to be dying) and that the numbers already infected are much higher than we think.

I looked up some stats a couple of days ago and found that in all countries confirmed cases vs deaths seems to be around the 4% mark which is indeed VERY worrying compared to normal flu.

BUT

Numbers from Sweden, Germany, Norway yield only a 0.2% mortality rate, whcih would seem to be in keeping with the normal flu.

Now I knwo it's wishful thinking BUT using my full force of racist/ignorant/stereotypical thinking, the Germans and Scandies are probably much better at this sort of this in terms of numbers and have probably tested more effectively than us and might have picked up many more of the mild cases than we have. THIS IS TOTAL SPECULATION. But it does seem odd that these three countries, at the time I looked, seemed to be comign up with very reasonable numbers.

I know I'm clutching at straws here but it is not out of the question that I have had coronavirus, along with my whole family who were strangely unwell over the Xmas period and beyond and that there was a huge number of untested people.

It would be great to have some sort of IgG test asap to get everyone tested with to check the extent of herd immunity currently around and et more reasonable stats.

#I am not an expert and not pretending to be#


Not far fetched at all. I can attest to other people i know who seldom get sick having symptoms before Christmas around the late November time. It wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of people have had it. The most annoying thing about all this is that the numbers are bullshit. All this reaction based on a “1%” mortality rate. It’s not. That 1% is based on AT RISK people or those that they’re ACTUALLY TESTING, and that accounts for a tiny percentage of people that actually have it or have had it. For the vast majority the symptoms are so mild that most people would never even know.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 11:49

The overall death rate for known positives is about 3-4% not 1%

UK up to yesterday was 3.54% but that number will rise.

WHY? Because, even if no new cases arrived some of those positives will die in the next 2-3 weeks

So more like 7% as Italy is currently

If for every positive there are nine others with CV then the real rate is 0.7%

That is 350,000 UK dead if 80% contract the virus

The Govt Chief Scientist has already said that 20,000 deaths would be a good result

EDIT

11:33 Official Stats Worldwide (for known positive cases)

201,530 Positives
120,530 Positives Outside China
8,007 Deaths
3.97% Death Rate for Known Positives

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