Coronavirus outbreak

1121 posts
Millsy
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 6000
Joined: 16 Jul 2004 18:36
Location: Shite little island soon to be sick man of Europe again and claim our rightful place as USA's bitch.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Millsy » 18 Mar 2020 12:24

CountryRoyal
2 world wars, 1 world cup Ok here's something interesting.

It's a far fetched one and I admit I like to believe there is something to it, but I don't know.

I have suspected (and still do) that coronavirus has been around since before Xmas (I've had the most awful strange symptoms, totally out of character for me, even had to go home early one day which is unheard of- never ever take time off, have to be dying) and that the numbers already infected are much higher than we think.

I looked up some stats a couple of days ago and found that in all countries confirmed cases vs deaths seems to be around the 4% mark which is indeed VERY worrying compared to normal flu.

BUT

Numbers from Sweden, Germany, Norway yield only a 0.2% mortality rate, whcih would seem to be in keeping with the normal flu.

Now I knwo it's wishful thinking BUT using my full force of racist/ignorant/stereotypical thinking, the Germans and Scandies are probably much better at this sort of this in terms of numbers and have probably tested more effectively than us and might have picked up many more of the mild cases than we have. THIS IS TOTAL SPECULATION. But it does seem odd that these three countries, at the time I looked, seemed to be comign up with very reasonable numbers.

I know I'm clutching at straws here but it is not out of the question that I have had coronavirus, along with my whole family who were strangely unwell over the Xmas period and beyond and that there was a huge number of untested people.

It would be great to have some sort of IgG test asap to get everyone tested with to check the extent of herd immunity currently around and et more reasonable stats.

#I am not an expert and not pretending to be#


Not far fetched at all. I can attest to other people i know who seldom get sick having symptoms before Christmas around the late November time. It wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of people have had it. The most annoying thing about all this is that the numbers are bullshit. All this reaction based on a “1%” mortality rate. It’s not. That 1% is based on AT RISK people or those that they’re ACTUALLY TESTING, and that accounts for a tiny percentage of people that actually have it or have had it. For the vast majority the symptoms are so mild that most people would never even know.


Spot on.

Having said that though... with the very imperfect stats we have at the moment and the reaction the way it is at the moment, we all need to remain cautious as we are.

But what we DON'T need to be doing, and the reason I tried to just apply a bit of perspective as above, is going crazy about the VERY imperfect stats that are available and fear-mongering beyond the caution we are already demonstrating.

SCIAG
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 5349
Joined: 17 Jun 2008 17:43
Location: Liburd for England

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SCIAG » 18 Mar 2020 12:29

Snowball
SCIAG
Snowball The spread of MERS was ONLY in hospitals and required PROLONGED contact with an infected person, so drop that off your argument.

We didn’t see anything REMOTELY like this governmental reaction when SARS reared its head.

I don’t claim to be a virologist or an academic researcher but I CAN read and I’m only quoting official sources.

My analysis is just my analysis, something any reasonably-educated person could do.

It is FARCICAL to think the Chinese lock-down idea is the answer. If it was that easy, we could just shut everything down for three months, let the virus die, and all live happily-ever-after.

Your analysis gets basic epidemiology wrong and indeed calls it farcical.

If you stop transmission then unless the pathogen has a natural reservoir or can lie dormant, then the disease stops.

This is not farcical, it is a basic fact.

The reason total lockdown wouldn’t actually work perfectly is not biological, it’s economic, behavioural, and political. Total quarantine except for food delivery services would be unacceptable and would have knock-on effects.

In fairness you seem to be getting a better grip on the numbers, but you are completely failing to relate them to the real world.

I did one epidemiology module at university. I wouldn’t claim to be an expert but I can tell when someone is bullshitting.


I am not BULLSHITTING. I am reading very widely from 99% official sources,
some URLs posted here. The only unofficial source I have used is the medical teacher

The Government's Chief Scientific Advisor stated yesterday, to a Parliamentary Committee,
broadcast on TV that we will see a reinfection spike after lockdown finishes

South Korea yesterday after their much-lauded Draconian Test Regime etc
just announced new pockets and 97 NEW confirmed cases in a single day

Even under Lockdown in UK there are 5 MILLION essential workers presumably
going out, mingling, bringing stuff home. The virus is in the animal kingdom and
can migrate freshly

You may be reading official sources but you don’t understand them. And you certainly are bullshitting.

Vallance is working with the reality that is not a perfect model (as you say, we still have people getting food, we can’t tell easily if someone is a carrier, etc.) but in a perfect model where nobody moves around, the virus will stop circulating and after a sufficient period it will die out.

Any evidence the virus has infected British wildlife? Because that smells a lot like bullshit.

Millsy
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 6000
Joined: 16 Jul 2004 18:36
Location: Shite little island soon to be sick man of Europe again and claim our rightful place as USA's bitch.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Millsy » 18 Mar 2020 12:34

Snowball, I might've missed it but do you have your result yet?

I hope you have coronavirus.

(in a friendly way, for obvious reasons you've already stated!

Snowball
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 18197
Joined: 02 Jan 2009 18:35

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 12:37

SCIAG

Any evidence the virus has infected British wildlife? Because that smells a lot like bullshit.


Straw Man. I never MENTIONED British Wildlife

The various coronaviruses are widespread in the animal world
and every now and then they get transmitted to humans

Animals are routinely treated for coronaviruses but not all
coronaviruses are deadly



SARS was traced back to bats

MERS was traced back to Camels

Snowball
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 18197
Joined: 02 Jan 2009 18:35

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 12:44

2 world wars, 1 world cup Snowball, I might've missed it but do you have your result yet?

I hope you have coronavirus.

(in a friendly way, for obvious reasons you've already stated!



I have been praying I've got it.

But just heard, this morning I tested NEGATIVE on 9th March


I rang my doctor for advice (I still have headache, cough, lung issues)

Did I still need to self-isolate etc.

In no-uncertain terms he said he believes I DO (DID) have CV-19
and that "the efficacy of the test kit is very questionable"

I then Googled and apparently they are only catching 60% of positives.

There are zero false positives. (That means if you don't have CV the test won't say you do)

But there are a lot of false negatives. (You can have it but 40% of the time you will test negative)

I am now not infectious but my refugees are now officially confined to barracks for an extra week
and my usual refugee visitors are banned from the flat until June at the earliest.


User avatar
Sutekh
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 10652
Joined: 12 Feb 2014 14:05
Location: Undiscovered pyramid somewhere in Egypt

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Sutekh » 18 Mar 2020 13:08

So what are your thoughts as regards football getting back in operation.

Personally think it’s going to be June at the earliest before getting fans back to games.

I actually suspect the leagues/FA may resort to behind closed door games before then and also will consider scrapping FA Cup and playoffs. Next season not starting until September/October which may actually aid fitting the Qatar World Cup finals mess into the calendar in 2022.

Or will everything be voided and we start again with this season, next season.

Millsy
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 6000
Joined: 16 Jul 2004 18:36
Location: Shite little island soon to be sick man of Europe again and claim our rightful place as USA's bitch.

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Millsy » 18 Mar 2020 13:10

Snowball
2 world wars, 1 world cup Snowball, I might've missed it but do you have your result yet?

I hope you have coronavirus.

(in a friendly way, for obvious reasons you've already stated!



I have been praying I've got it.

But just heard, this morning I tested NEGATIVE on 9th March


I rang my doctor for advice (I still have headache, cough, lung issues)

Did I still need to self-isolate etc.

In no-uncertain terms he said he believes I DO (DID) have CV-19
and that "the efficacy of the test kit is very questionable"

I then Googled and apparently they are only catching 60% of positives.

There are zero false positives. (That means if you don't have CV the test won't say you do)

But there are a lot of false negatives. (You can have it but 40% of the time you will test negative)

I am now not infectious but my refugees are now officially confined to barracks for an extra week
and my usual refugee visitors are banned from the flat until June at the earliest.


interesting. So is it n IgM test (i.e. will tell if you have very acute infection) rather than IgG (have had it past)? I'll look into it.

User avatar
Sutekh
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 10652
Joined: 12 Feb 2014 14:05
Location: Undiscovered pyramid somewhere in Egypt

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Sutekh » 18 Mar 2020 13:48

Sutekh So what are your thoughts as regards football getting back in operation.

Personally think it’s going to be June at the earliest before getting fans back to games.

I actually suspect the leagues/FA may resort to behind closed door games before then and also will consider scrapping FA Cup and playoffs. Next season not starting until September/October which may actually aid fitting the Qatar World Cup finals mess into the calendar in 2022.

Or will everything be voided and we start again with this season, next season.


Latest update

https://www.getreading.co.uk/sport/foot ... t-17942752

Snowball
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 18197
Joined: 02 Jan 2009 18:35

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 16:32

I managed to get an all-China total so I can now
see how many positives and deaths there are
outside China

These columns are

1 World including China
2 World excluding China
3 Death rates, World
4 Death Rates World excluding China

Just posting the Death Totals and the %age

6,513 ------ 3,276 ------ 3.85% ------ 3.71%
6,705 ------ 3,468 ------ 3.84% ------ 3.70%
6,705 ------ 3,468 ------ 3.83% ------ 3.69%
6,706 ------ 3,469 ------ 3.83% ------ 3.69%
6,706 ------ 3,469 ------ 3.83% ------ 3.68%
7,079 ------ 3,842 ------ 3.95% ------ 3.92%
7,118 ------ 3,881 ------ 3.92% ------ 3.87%
7,154 ------ 3,917 ------ 3.92% ------ 3.86%
7,158 ------ 3,921 ------ 3.91% ------ 3.84%
7,167 ------ 3,930 ------ 3.91% ------ 3.84%
7,505 ------ 4,268 ------ 3.96% ------ 3.94%
7,517 ------ 4,280 ------ 3.95% ------ 3.92%
7,864 ------ 4,627 ------ 4.05% ------ 4.09%
7,907 ------ 4,670 ------ 4.02% ------ 4.04%
7,954 ------ 4,717 ------ 4.01% ------ 4.03%
8,007 ------ 4,770 ------ 3.97% ------ 3.96%
8,205 ------ 4,968 ------ 4.03% ------ 4.05%
8,248 ------ 5,011 ------ 4.01% ------ 4.03%
8,281 ------ 5,044 ------ 3.97% ------ 3.96%

8,727 ------ 5,490 ------ 4.10% ------ 4.17% (Added)

These are 1Hr/2Hr snapshots but note that over time the death rate
appears to be growing, basically I think, because UK etc is catching
up to Italy, Iran and China


EDIT


Last Three Days UK

Cases
Deaths
Percentage


1,543 055 3.56%
1,950 071 3.64%
2,626 104 3.96%

Just three days but it seems, as predicted, that the percentage dying is creeping up

Italy is now over 8%
Last edited by Snowball on 18 Mar 2020 18:15, edited 2 times in total.


Snowball
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 18197
Joined: 02 Jan 2009 18:35

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 16:35

Does anyone know the official answer to this question?


Hypothetical (I have no grandparents)



My grandfather is very sick, likely to die in hospital.

Am I allowed to visit him before he dies?




Anyone know?

User avatar
Uke
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 15150
Joined: 17 Apr 2004 16:24
Location: Pretentious, Moi? @UkeRFC

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Uke » 18 Mar 2020 18:36

Snowball Does anyone know the official answer to this question?


Hypothetical (I have no grandparents)



My grandfather is very sick, likely to die in hospital.

Am I allowed to visit him before he dies?




Anyone know?


Yes, but only pretty much at the end

Then wash your hands

SCIAG
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 5349
Joined: 17 Jun 2008 17:43
Location: Liburd for England

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SCIAG » 18 Mar 2020 21:18

Snowball
SCIAG

Any evidence the virus has infected British wildlife? Because that smells a lot like bullshit.


Straw Man. I never MENTIONED British Wildlife

The various coronaviruses are widespread in the animal world
and every now and then they get transmitted to humans

Animals are routinely treated for coronaviruses but not all
coronaviruses are deadly



SARS was traced back to bats

MERS was traced back to Camels

:roll:

Yes Snowy, believe it or not I know what a zoonose is.

You are arguing that extreme social distancing will be insufficient to halt COVID-19 in this country because, among other things, there is a wild reservoir.

As the wild reservoir isn’t even in this bloody country, and the leap to humans has only happened once and is unlikely to happen again any time soon, fretting about the wild reservoir makes no sense. It’s completely irrelevant.

God, and now once again you’re back to bullshitting with statistics. Think about it this way: you are most famous on here for being the guy who gets statistics wrong. If you can’t understand relatively simple sports statistics after following football for decades then how the oxf*rd are you going to understand epidemiological statistics after a few weeks of reading the Lancet and emails from JHU with zero guidance or training? At the very least sign up to an e-learning course.

Nothing against you Snowy, you just happen to be the worst offender. Just... learn your limits.

Snowball
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 18197
Joined: 02 Jan 2009 18:35

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 21:33

SARS, Bats

MERS, Camels

Novel-Coronavirus covid-19 traced to animal market

3 out of 3

Bird Flu

4 out of 4

There are Coronaviruses common in many species including food animals.

Most of them are relative benign most of the time

It’s effortless to confirm this.

Theoretically, at any time, transmission time humans is possible.

Viruses mutate over time

Every year more or less we get new variants of seasonal flu, new mutations and a new annual vaccine.

Where do you suppose those viruses were, on holiday?


Snowball
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 18197
Joined: 02 Jan 2009 18:35

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 21:34

Which stats are you disputing?

User avatar
Ascotexgunner
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 3333
Joined: 07 Jan 2012 16:23
Location: Ascot

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Ascotexgunner » 18 Mar 2020 22:29

Sutekh So what are your thoughts as regards football getting back in operation.

Personally think it’s going to be June at the earliest before getting fans back to games.

I actually suspect the leagues/FA may resort to behind closed door games before then and also will consider scrapping FA Cup and playoffs. Next season not starting until September/October which may actually aid fitting the Qatar World Cup finals mess into the calendar in 2022.

Or will everything be voided and we start again with this season, next season.


Fingers crossed!!!! Voided, voided!!!! please please!!!! I'm praying voided.

User avatar
Lower West
Hob Nob Subscriber
Hob Nob Subscriber
Posts: 3840
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 11:35
Location: Polishng the County Ground floodlights

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Lower West » 19 Mar 2020 00:09

Sutekh So what are your thoughts as regards football getting back in operation.

Personally think it’s going to be June at the earliest before getting fans back to games.

I actually suspect the leagues/FA may resort to behind closed door games before then and also will consider scrapping FA Cup and playoffs. Next season not starting until September/October which may actually aid fitting the Qatar World Cup finals mess into the calendar in 2022.

Or will everything be voided and we start again with this season, next season.


Peak is forecast in June. This is going to roll into next season. Difficult to see European Cup football until 2021-22 season.

Domestic leagues have to come first.

Linden Jones' Tash
Member
Posts: 318
Joined: 20 Jun 2009 12:03
Location: north of the river...

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Linden Jones' Tash » 19 Mar 2020 08:37

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... sf-twitter

Looks like it doesn't discriminate after all

The Real Sandhurst Royal
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 2135
Joined: 20 Apr 2004 10:06
Location: Sandhurst

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by The Real Sandhurst Royal » 19 Mar 2020 09:08


User avatar
Zip
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 12789
Joined: 30 Dec 2017 16:39

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Zip » 19 Mar 2020 09:25

So Italy is suffering a death rate double the rest of the world it seems. Is there a specific reason for that? Is it due to more elderly being infected? Is there an age breakdown for those affected?

SCIAG
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 5349
Joined: 17 Jun 2008 17:43
Location: Liburd for England

Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SCIAG » 19 Mar 2020 09:51

Snowball SARS, Bats

MERS, Camels

Novel-Coronavirus covid-19 traced to animal market

3 out of 3

Bird Flu

4 out of 4

There are Coronaviruses common in many species including food animals.

Most of them are relative benign most of the time

It’s effortless to confirm this.

Theoretically, at any time, transmission time humans is possible.

Viruses mutate over time

Every year more or less we get new variants of seasonal flu, new mutations and a new annual vaccine.

Where do you suppose those viruses were, on holiday?

:roll: :roll: :roll:

First up, clearly working out of my notifications is not suitable as nearly everyone else here is talking more bullshit than you!

Again, I know more about this than you do. You’re not going to catch me out by raising facts I’ve already raised and properly contextualised. You’re just not understanding basic facts.

Yes, there are lots of diseases circulating in the wild. Yes, every year a few of them jump to humanity. What you said is that this one having a wild reserve means that social distancing won’t work! Look at those diseases you mentioned - how many times did they jump to humans? One. Unless something has evolved to readily infect humans (like malaria for example, or rabies) then it’s so unlikely to happen that the chances of the same virus jumping to humans twice in a year are extremely long.

Put it this way - if there are a thousand coronaviruses that circulate in animals where there is some contact with humans, and they each have a 1 in 1000 chance of jumping to humans in any year, then what are the odds of the same virus jumping twice in a year?

We need new flu vaccines because flu keeps circulating and because it mutates very quickly.

We have no idea how quickly this virus mutates, but if we distance properly (all over the world mind, so realistically it won’t happen) then it won’t circulate and the mutation rate stops mattering (unless it’s off-the-scale so that everyone effectively has a different disease! But that isn’t happening).

1121 posts

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], KentRoyal and 145 guests

It is currently 27 Jan 2021 13:18