Coronavirus outbreak

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andrew1957
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by andrew1957 » 19 Mar 2020 10:42

Having been in financial services for the last 40 years I have worked through the crashes of 1987, 2001 and 2008 and a number of smaller incidents, but this one truly has the potential to be worse.

What bothers me is that the Governments/Central Banks seem to be acting very reactively and slowly and this is making matters worse. I would say that whether the global economy gets through this without either a collapse or high/hyperinflation (as Governments print unlimited amounts of currency) is 50-50 at best.

If the worst happens then far more people across the world could die from an economic collapse than from COVID-19. I really hope that I am wrong on this but there is a chance life might never go back to the way that it was. Maybe it will be simpler and better than our current mad stressful existence.

I would wish all my fellow nobbers well and would hope that you keep virus free if at all possible. Suggest you all spend as much time as possible with your families, appreciate all that you have and keep short accounts with both God and man.

Good luck.

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Wycombe Royal
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Wycombe Royal » 19 Mar 2020 10:45

Zip So Italy is suffering a death rate double the rest of the world it seems. Is there a specific reason for that? Is it due to more elderly being infected? Is there an age breakdown for those affected?

Could just be due to a different testing regime, as the reported death rate is against the amount of positive cases identified.

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Jagermesiter1871
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 19 Mar 2020 12:58

andrew1957 Having been in financial services for the last 40 years I have worked through the crashes of 1987, 2001 and 2008 and a number of smaller incidents, but this one truly has the potential to be worse.

What bothers me is that the Governments/Central Banks seem to be acting very reactively and slowly and this is making matters worse. I would say that whether the global economy gets through this without either a collapse or high/hyperinflation (as Governments print unlimited amounts of currency) is 50-50 at best.

If the worst happens then far more people across the world could die from an economic collapse than from COVID-19. I really hope that I am wrong on this but there is a chance life might never go back to the way that it was. Maybe it will be simpler and better than our current mad stressful existence.

I would wish all my fellow nobbers well and would hope that you keep virus free if at all possible. Suggest you all spend as much time as possible with your families, appreciate all that you have and keep short accounts with both God and man.

Good luck.


I understand - so what you're saying is buy like 2000 toilet rolls right?

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 19 Mar 2020 13:12

Wycombe Royal
Zip So Italy is suffering a death rate double the rest of the world it seems. Is there a specific reason for that? Is it due to more elderly being infected? Is there an age breakdown for those affected?

Could just be due to a different testing regime, as the reported death rate is against the amount of positive cases identified.


One thing to look at is “Number Recovered”

In China this is quite high because they were peaking Xmas onward. Even so there about 7,000 still NOT recovered.

If all those were to die then the death rate would be 12-13% (one in eight)

If you look at the UK, ATM less than 100 confirmed cases have recovered

People are looking at

Confirmed Infections
Deaths

Quite understandable!

ATM the world death rate is 4% or so for CONFIRMED infections

To make a complete tally we need to add “Still Sick” and Recovered

Many who are still very sick and will die, as I said. Country figures are not comparable if their early cases were at different times and their total infections curve were not the same.

Hence the UK/US is said to be 2-3 weeks “behind” Italy

Simply, there has been more time for Italians to die. We need to look at comparisons 2-3 weeks post-peak

Differences later in the pandemic may be down to Health Care quality but right now it’s hard to say

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 19 Mar 2020 13:14

My first day of freedom and I delivered supplies to two locked down people in Hammersmith

Got a parking ticket for £130 for a seven minute stop


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Wycombe Royal
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Wycombe Royal » 19 Mar 2020 14:02

Snowball
Wycombe Royal
Zip So Italy is suffering a death rate double the rest of the world it seems. Is there a specific reason for that? Is it due to more elderly being infected? Is there an age breakdown for those affected?

Could just be due to a different testing regime, as the reported death rate is against the amount of positive cases identified.


One thing to look at is “Number Recovered”

In China this is quite high because they were peaking Xmas onward. Even so there about 7,000 still NOT recovered.

If all those were to die then the death rate would be 12-13% (one in eight)

If you look at the UK, ATM less than 100 confirmed cases have recovered

People are looking at

Confirmed Infections
Deaths

Quite understandable!

ATM the world death rate is 4% or so for CONFIRMED infections

To make a complete tally we need to add “Still Sick” and Recovered

Many who are still very sick and will die, as I said. Country figures are not comparable if their early cases were at different times and their total infections curve were not the same.

Hence the UK/US is said to be 2-3 weeks “behind” Italy

Simply, there has been more time for Italians to die. We need to look at comparisons 2-3 weeks post-peak

Differences later in the pandemic may be down to Health Care quality but right now it’s hard to say

But it is also down to how many peiople are being tested. If a country is only testing those seriously ill then they will have a higher death rate, if a country is doing a more thorough testing, i.e those with some milder symptons, then their death rate would be lower.

There are many moving parts and there is no right answer despite your attempts to find one.

I wonder if Shane Long has been tested?

I currently have a temperature of 38.6...should i be concerned......still working though (at home).

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 19 Mar 2020 14:40

Shane Long infected?

It wouldn’t dare!

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 19 Mar 2020 14:43

Wycombe Royal
Snowball
Wycombe Royal Could just be due to a different testing regime, as the reported death rate is against the amount of positive cases identified.


One thing to look at is “Number Recovered”

In China this is quite high because they were peaking Xmas onward. Even so there about 7,000 still NOT recovered.

If all those were to die then the death rate would be 12-13% (one in eight)

If you look at the UK, ATM less than 100 confirmed cases have recovered

People are looking at

Confirmed Infections
Deaths

Quite understandable!

ATM the world death rate is 4% or so for CONFIRMED infections

To make a complete tally we need to add “Still Sick” and Recovered

Many who are still very sick and will die, as I said. Country figures are not comparable if their early cases were at different times and their total infections curve were not the same.

Hence the UK/US is said to be 2-3 weeks “behind” Italy

Simply, there has been more time for Italians to die. We need to look at comparisons 2-3 weeks post-peak

Differences later in the pandemic may be down to Health Care quality but right now it’s hard to say

But it is also down to how many peiople are being tested. If a country is only testing those seriously ill then they will have a higher death rate, if a country is doing a more thorough testing, i.e those with some milder symptons, then their death rate would be lower.

There are many moving parts and there is no right answer despite your attempts to find one.

I wonder if Shane Long has been tested?

I currently have a temperature of 38.6...should i be concerned......still working though (at home).


Agreed. UK death rate should jump substantially now if we only test I’ll people and medics

A better statistic might be “Percentage of Population Dying” that is physical and ignores test regimes etc

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Aeroguide » 19 Mar 2020 16:17

I reiterate:
Snowbollocks..overbearing, arrogant pc scumbag that has it’s head so far up it’s own backside, it cannot and will not see the light for the shite.


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RoyalBlue
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by RoyalBlue » 19 Mar 2020 16:51

Wycombe Royal
Zip So Italy is suffering a death rate double the rest of the world it seems. Is there a specific reason for that? Is it due to more elderly being infected? Is there an age breakdown for those affected?

Could just be due to a different testing regime, as the reported death rate is against the amount of positive cases identified.


Isn't that the same way most, if not all, countries are reporting it? I know it has led to the UK's rate looking alarmingly high because discontinuing tests other than for hospitalised cases means far lower numbers of positive cases recorded as opposed to the number that likely exist across all groups. Sadly a greater proportion of hospitalised cases are likely to die. The percentage death rate in the UK should therefore drop a bit once there is a wider spread testing regime.

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Sutekh
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Sutekh » 19 Mar 2020 17:15

All football now postponed until 30th April

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51962751

Singing Defective
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Singing Defective » 19 Mar 2020 17:58

Wonder if England follows Wuhan in repurposing stadiums as temp hospitals. If so, I hope not to see the Mad Stad until there are some players to watch...

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 19 Mar 2020 18:35

Today's 1PM Update for UK



Last Four Days

16th = 1,543 - 055 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.56%
17th = 1,950 - 071 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.64%
18th = 2,626 - 104 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.96%
19th = 3,269 - 144 Deaths Death-Rate = 4.41%

What I note from the above is that the death-rate appears to be climbing steadily each day, so far

Cases.

Lines 1-2-3 latest I could find that day.
Line 4 09:00 Offical Government site. Cases at 09:00

Deaths

Deaths timed at 13:00 19th

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus ... r-of-cases

based on growth each day, I was expecting 3,200 Confirmed Cases and 140 Deaths by midnight.

The exponential growth so far seems to be higher.


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tmesis
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by tmesis » 19 Mar 2020 18:53

Snowball Last Four Days

16th = 1,543 - 055 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.56%
17th = 1,950 - 071 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.64%
18th = 2,626 - 104 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.96%
19th = 3,269 - 144 Deaths Death-Rate = 4.41%

What I note from the above is that the death-rate appears to be climbing steadily each day, so far


Fewer tests (as a % of people reporting symptoms) possibly account for the higher rate.

Deaths will also lag behind cases by a good while. People getting it today might not die for two weeks.

The actual mortality rate might well be lower than 1%, which is a good thing, but would still be horrific if it spread uncontrolled

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 19 Mar 2020 19:07

tmesis
Snowball Last Four Days

16th = 1,543 - 055 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.56%
17th = 1,950 - 071 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.64%
18th = 2,626 - 104 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.96%
19th = 3,269 - 144 Deaths Death-Rate = 4.41%

What I note from the above is that the death-rate appears to be climbing steadily each day, so far


Fewer tests (as a % of people reporting symptoms) possibly account for the higher rate.

Deaths will also lag behind cases by a good while. People getting it today might not die for two weeks.

The actual mortality rate might well be lower than 1%, which is a good thing, but would still be horrific if it spread uncontrolled


Understood

My test took 9 days to get a result (longest case I know of is 11) so today's 643 new positives, is from tests around about the 10th March when tests were still ongoing.

Many of the deaths we are starting to see are from people infected 10-20 days ago

Incidentally, I have been trying to find more information on the efficacy of the test as it is currently. One doctor contact and a couple of nurse contacts and one journalist tell me that the test is pretty shitty. When I had my test done I just presumed the result would be 100% accurate.

Reading round (and only solid sites, journals, government reports or major newspapers I discovered that in China they were getting as many as six (SIX) consecutive negatives for patients who were clearly very ill and that they typical patient produced a positive on the third case. Things were so ridiculous that the official cases in China were NOT simple test-positives but were decided on SYMPTOMS.

(Washington Post)

This might go some way to explaining why the Chinese death-rate for official confirmed cases seems half of Italy's rate. Perhaps China was treating Covid-19 Cases and OTHER flu cases?

I don't know if there is more than one test-kit type. Yesterday, after my doctor disagreed with my negative (big surprise for me) I searched and found that UK tests were producing no false-positives but 40% of negative results were false negatives.

I haven't heard that question being asked. "Prime Minister, is the test 100% accurate?"

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 19 Mar 2020 19:28

My daughter and her BF are in lockdown in Hammersmith.

Went there today to get a shopping list, get stuff and return.

As posted elsewhere got a parking ticket for 7 minutes of £130 (Yes I'll appeal)


Went to Tesco War Zone. Got what I could. In line for the tills was packed like sardines.

When you REACHED the till there was black and yellow DO NOT CROSS tape.

So, after spending 10-20 minutes in a sardine can, THEN, (just while you are putting stuff on the belt)
nobody is supposed to be within six feet of you. Of course, while paying, you are about three feet
from a shop-assistant (manning the till) who is completely unprotected and dealing with hundreds of people
per day. An utter farce. I fear for these decent souls. Their exposure is immense and way beyond the call.
I expect a huge toll of cash-till assistants compared to whatever the final toll is.

======

Saw a shop stocked with sanitisers and sprays etc.

Except that it was ZERO ALCOHOL and marked as anti-bacterial
small-print, doesn't kill virus. Selling like hot-cakes of course

Westwood52
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Westwood52 » 19 Mar 2020 20:03

andrew1957 Having been in financial services for the last 40 years I have worked through the crashes of 1987, 2001 and 2008 and a number of smaller incidents, but this one truly has the potential to be worse.

What bothers me is that the Governments/Central Banks seem to be acting very reactively and slowly and this is making matters worse. I would say that whether the global economy gets through this without either a collapse or high/hyperinflation (as Governments print unlimited amounts of currency) is 50-50 at best.

If the worst happens then far more people across the world could die from an economic collapse than from COVID-19. I really hope that I am wrong on this but there is a chance life might never go back to the way that it was. Maybe it will be simpler and better than our current mad stressful existence.

I would wish all my fellow nobbers well and would hope that you keep virus free if at all possible. Suggest you all spend as much time as possible with your families, appreciate all that you have and keep short accounts with both God and man.

Good luck.


Apparently 500000 people die during a recession.

Westwood52
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Westwood52 » 19 Mar 2020 20:06

Snowball My daughter and her BF are in lockdown in Hammersmith.

Went there today to get a shopping list, get stuff and return.

As posted elsewhere got a parking ticket for 7 minutes of £130 (Yes I'll appeal)


Went to Tesco War Zone. Got what I could. In line for the tills was packed like sardines.

When you REACHED the till there was black and yellow DO NOT CROSS tape.

So, after spending 10-20 minutes in a sardine can, THEN, (just while you are putting stuff on the belt)
nobody is supposed to be within six feet of you. Of course, while paying, you are about three feet
from a shop-assistant (manning the till) who is completely unprotected and dealing with hundreds of people
per day. An utter farce. I fear for these decent souls. Their exposure is immense and way beyond the call.
I expect a huge toll of cash-till assistants compared to whatever the final toll is.

======

Saw a shop stocked with sanitisers and sprays etc.

Except that it was ZERO ALCOHOL and marked as anti-bacterial
small-print, doesn't kill virus. Selling like hot-cakes of course


Shame the supermarkets have nothing to sell as well.Except loads of flowers for Mothers Day.I threw my Mums flowers over her garden wall,as I am not allowed to go and see her.

Westwood52
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Westwood52 » 19 Mar 2020 20:08

We shall fight them on the beaches,in the supermarket,in the chemists.We will never surrender to Corona.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Dr_Hfuhruhurr » 20 Mar 2020 06:19

Zip So Italy is suffering a death rate double the rest of the world it seems. Is there a specific reason for that? Is it due to more elderly being infected? Is there an age breakdown for those affected?


To answer your second question - the age breakdown is overwhelmingly old patients in Italy.

It has been surmised that the following is contributing to the high death rate in Italy
1. The number of old people in Italy
2. The recording of death to coronavirus is very generous and in Italy essentially means "death with coronavirus"
3. Lombardy has a high(er) rate of comorbidity with lung disease
4. Italy has a ventilator shortage and cannot ventilate everybody.

The concept that this the Italy results are suprising because Italy has one of the best NHS's in Europe has essentially been debunked because a) the statistics are out of date and show that Italy USED to have one of the best NHS;s. b) The measure of NHS worthiness is not especially weighted towards indicators that it is making people better. There are a lot of different factors that contribute to that score

As to whether their lockdown is working or not is a highly charged debate. I think there are merits to both sides of the debate here. Lockdown doesnt have an endgame and will destroy your economy. There is a short term gain with long term problems. Not locking down will increase the spread of the virus. There are short term problems, but will be better in the long term. The preppers need the curfew breakers to keep the economy going, and to provide some level of immunity to future outbreaks. The curfew breakers need the preppers to keep the current situation manageable. TBH, I dont particularly criticise either the preppers or the curfew breakers - I think we need a balance. The UK approach may appear outwardly shambolic (thats because it is!) but it may prove to be one of the better models.

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