Coronavirus outbreak

[krapmle]

You are showing an incredible degree of naïveté

snowball you are showing an incredible degree of panic.
Death is death. So when this is over and the death total doesn't match the annual flu death rate, please justify destroying the world economy.

114 deaths in 9 days has no meaning. Were 120 people infected or 50 million?

Yes, "Flu" is a matter of fact, something we don't think about too much, and it is one of the things that can kill us.

Yes it has killed 109000 this winter so far. Why weren't you shouting from the roof tops people are gonna die?

[Millsy]

The good news is that sex is protective against coronavirus.

Stats clearly show that in general sexually active populations are at less risk of dying from it.

Less loo roll needed too.

[Half Horse]

I thought people were joking about Snowball and his stats in this thread......

Dear lord.

This is the perfect case for stats. Stats are facts. In yer face facts.

About a million times better than people bitching that every government
on the planet has gone mad (but they know better)

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics"

[Snowball]

You are showing an incredible degree of naïveté

snowball you are showing an incredible degree of panic.
Death is death. So when this is over and the death total doesn't match the annual flu death rate, please justify destroying the world economy.

114 deaths in 9 days has no meaning. Were 120 people infected or 50 million?

Yes, "Flu" is a matter of fact, something we don't think about too much, and it is one of the things that can kill us.

Yes it has killed 109000 this winter so far. Why weren't you shouting from the roof tops people are gonna die?

I am not REMOTELY panicking, nor do I fear my own death.

But I am not a numpty who thinks this is trivial. Explain exactly why this couldn’t get worse and worse and worse.

The spread is exponential


3x3x3x3x3 is 241 but limit transmission to 2 and 2x2x2x2x2 is just 32, then 64 then 192

The 3 case by comparison would be 2,169 times, 11 times worse.

Epidemiologists say that without severe lockdown China would by now have passed 9 Million cases

THAT is why we are restricting commerce, travel, public events

[Snowball]

I thought people were joking about Snowball and his stats in this thread......

Dear lord.

This is the perfect case for stats. Stats are facts. In yer face facts.

About a million times better than people bitching that every government
on the planet has gone mad (but they know better)

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics"

Oh a QUOTE! MUST be true.

[Millsy]

Can I suggest we start a separate thread for lay stat bashing / panic/ anxiety and leave this for the HNA community to use to discuss coronavirus and its implications in a calm sensible way?

Mods?

[andrew1957]

state of play:

flu deaths this winter (so far) = 109,000 (no lock down, no panic and happens every year)
Corona virus deaths (so far) = 14,700 (lock down, massive panic, destroying world economy, one off event)

+1

Not worth the recession that’s coming, people are stupid.

I fear you are right. Frankly an extra 600,000 or so UK deaths from COVID-19 could well pale into insignificance if huge number die in the next decade as a result of economic hardship caused by the now almost certain depression that will result from the close down. Stock markets have plummeted more than 30-35% already, at a faster rate than they fell in 1929!

Approximately 150,000 people die EVERY DAY in the world and yet we have virtually shut down the global economy for 10,000 or so COVID-19 deaths - many of whom were older people who were already extremely ill in hospitals - which have become a hot bed of infection.

I appreciate that Governments have an incredibly difficult job right now and they are acting as they are because of the levels of hysteria amongst their populations who largely think that they have a divine right to live to 100 years of age. Admittedly COVID-19 is awful, but the economic repercussions of the actions being taken today could be far worse than if we let the virus do its worse.

[SCIAG]

The issue with speculating about the number of people killed by the economic impact is that this is the first situation of its kind for over a century. We have no idea how quickly the economy will recover. 600,000 certain deaths avoided is probably worth a risk of a larger number of deaths.

The 2008 recession is thought to have led to around 120,000 deaths in this country. Given the different government response to this downturn, I think we’re probably looking at a lower number.

[RoyalBlue]

state of play:

flu deaths this winter (so far) = 109,000 (no lock down, no panic and happens every year)
Corona virus deaths (so far) = 14,700 (lock down, massive panic, destroying world economy, one off event)

+1

Not worth the recession that’s coming, people are stupid.

I fear you are right. Frankly an extra 600,000 or so UK deaths from COVID-19 could well pale into insignificance if huge number die in the next decade as a result of economic hardship caused by the now almost certain depression that will result from the close down. Stock markets have plummeted more than 30-35% already, at a faster rate than they fell in 1929!

Approximately 150,000 people die EVERY DAY in the world and yet we have virtually shut down the global economy for 10,000 or so COVID-19 deaths - many of whom were older people who were already extremely ill in hospitals - which have become a hot bed of infection.

I appreciate that Governments have an incredibly difficult job right now and they are acting as they are because of the levels of hysteria amongst their populations who largely think that they have a divine right to live to 100 years of age. Admittedly COVID-19 is awful, but the economic repercussions of the actions being taken today could be far worse than if we let the virus do its worse.

F*ck me! I can only think you just aren't bothering to listen properly. This is really serious shit. It's not just hitting & killing the elderly, far from it. Sadly that wasn't made clear at the outset. Had it been, we might see far less pig ignorant, selfish conduct from a section of the younger community e.g. drinking in the pubs until midnight on Thursday and now arranging house parties!

If you're only bothered about the f*cking economy, you need to wake up, listen to the experts and front line health staff and realise that the economic effects of failing to bring Coronavirus under some form of control will be far, far worse than the effects of the current, probably inadequate, measures being taken.

[RoyalBlue]

state of play:

flu deaths this winter (so far) = 109,000 (no lock down, no panic and happens every year)
Corona virus deaths (so far) = 14,700 (lock down, massive panic, destroying world economy, one off event)

+1

Not worth the recession that’s coming, people are stupid.

I fear you are right. Frankly an extra 600,000 or so UK deaths from COVID-19 could well pale into insignificance if huge number die in the next decade as a result of economic hardship caused by the now almost certain depression that will result from the close down. Stock markets have plummeted more than 30-35% already, at a faster rate than they fell in 1929!

Approximately 150,000 people die EVERY DAY in the world and yet we have virtually shut down the global economy for 10,000 or so COVID-19 deaths - many of whom were older people who were already extremely ill in hospitals - which have become a hot bed of infection.

I appreciate that Governments have an incredibly difficult job right now and they are acting as they are because of the levels of hysteria amongst their populations who largely think that they have a divine right to live to 100 years of age. Admittedly COVID-19 is awful, but the economic repercussions of the actions being taken today could be far worse than if we let the virus do its worse.

Perhaps you'd care to put forward all your loved ones to help with that 600,000 or so UK deaths from COVID-19. Yes, it's going to take a massive toll on the economy (makes you wonder why the Government are still allowing construction workers to work in close proximity using far from hygienic rest facilities whilst pissing Billions away on HS2) but it will eventually recover and personally I think life, even in really hard economic times, is better than death.

[John Madejski's Wallet]

state of play:

flu deaths this winter (so far) = 109,000 (no lock down, no panic and happens every year)
Corona virus deaths (so far) = 14,700 (lock down, massive panic, destroying world economy, one off event)

Just shows that people are pricks for not taking flu seriously

If one thing comes from pandemic, hopefully its a healthy respect for the flu (and every other "mild" illness that kills a fukk-load of people)

[Jagermesiter1871]

You cant compare it to flu. I did at first, I didnt understand. If someone who has underlying health conditions gets this its curtains whatever their age.

I'm pretty sure no 18 year old has died from a bout of the flu.

I've never had flu but I'm shitscared of this thing. Seeing as I have a heart scan for a problem that might be there which was scheduled for 6th April (can say that probably isnt happening) I may get one of these dreaded letters which says I wont be seeing anything till June

Don't think this is true. Doesn't it appear to be age + underlying health issue? At your age even and with a heart issue I think the stats are its very unlikely you'll die. Isn't it 0.2% under 40? And I would assume that 0.2% did have health issues but more than likely more respiratory/cancer immunosuppression therapy drugs. Happy to listen to any other information mind.

Still even being hospitalised won't be fun.

Although I agree with your sentiments that we should all be inside and the majority seem like oxf*rd idiots.

[Hound]

state of play:

flu deaths this winter (so far) = 109,000 (no lock down, no panic and happens every year)
Corona virus deaths (so far) = 14,700 (lock down, massive panic, destroying world economy, one off event)

+1

Not worth the recession that’s coming, people are stupid.

I fear you are right. Frankly an extra 600,000 or so UK deaths from COVID-19 could well pale into insignificance if huge number die in the next decade as a result of economic hardship caused by the now almost certain depression that will result from the close down. Stock markets have plummeted more than 30-35% already, at a faster rate than they fell in 1929!

Approximately 150,000 people die EVERY DAY in the world and yet we have virtually shut down the global economy for 10,000 or so COVID-19 deaths - many of whom were older people who were already extremely ill in hospitals - which have become a hot bed of infection.

I appreciate that Governments have an incredibly difficult job right now and they are acting as they are because of the levels of hysteria amongst their populations who largely think that they have a divine right to live to 100 years of age. Admittedly COVID-19 is awful, but the economic repercussions of the actions being taken today could be far worse than if we let the virus do its worse.

Is it 600k extra deaths? What is the overlap to people who would have died anyway?

Again trying not to comment on the rights or wrongs, but generally interested

[Uke]

What is the overlap to people who would have died anyway?

100%

[Hound]

What is the overlap to people who would have died anyway?

100%

yea obvs. this year I mean

[andrew1957]

+1

Not worth the recession that’s coming, people are stupid.

I fear you are right. Frankly an extra 600,000 or so UK deaths from COVID-19 could well pale into insignificance if huge number die in the next decade as a result of economic hardship caused by the now almost certain depression that will result from the close down. Stock markets have plummeted more than 30-35% already, at a faster rate than they fell in 1929!

Approximately 150,000 people die EVERY DAY in the world and yet we have virtually shut down the global economy for 10,000 or so COVID-19 deaths - many of whom were older people who were already extremely ill in hospitals - which have become a hot bed of infection.

I appreciate that Governments have an incredibly difficult job right now and they are acting as they are because of the levels of hysteria amongst their populations who largely think that they have a divine right to live to 100 years of age. Admittedly COVID-19 is awful, but the economic repercussions of the actions being taken today could be far worse than if we let the virus do its worse.

Is it 600k extra deaths? What is the overlap to people who would have died anyway?

Again trying not to comment on the rights or wrongs, but generally interested

I think 600,000 is the worst case estimate of "additional" deaths (as I understand it additional deaths are estimated to be somewhere between 20,000 and 600,000 for the UK. A Government adviser the other day on the news said that 20,000 would be a very good outcome). To put this into perspective slightly in excess of 600,000 die each year in the UK and so the worst case scenario would be a doubling of deaths for one year. But as you say in reality there are unlikely to be anywhere near 600,000 extra deaths as many of those dying of COVID-19 would have died within the next year of other health issues anyway and so would be within the normal 600,000. I don't think there is any way of accurately mapping overlap.

[andrew1957]

+1

Not worth the recession that’s coming, people are stupid.

I fear you are right. Frankly an extra 600,000 or so UK deaths from COVID-19 could well pale into insignificance if huge number die in the next decade as a result of economic hardship caused by the now almost certain depression that will result from the close down. Stock markets have plummeted more than 30-35% already, at a faster rate than they fell in 1929!

Approximately 150,000 people die EVERY DAY in the world and yet we have virtually shut down the global economy for 10,000 or so COVID-19 deaths - many of whom were older people who were already extremely ill in hospitals - which have become a hot bed of infection.

I appreciate that Governments have an incredibly difficult job right now and they are acting as they are because of the levels of hysteria amongst their populations who largely think that they have a divine right to live to 100 years of age. Admittedly COVID-19 is awful, but the economic repercussions of the actions being taken today could be far worse than if we let the virus do its worse.

Perhaps you'd care to put forward all your loved ones to help with that 600,000 or so UK deaths from COVID-19. Yes, it's going to take a massive toll on the economy (makes you wonder why the Government are still allowing construction workers to work in close proximity using far from hygienic rest facilities whilst pissing Billions away on HS2) but it will eventually recover and personally I think life, even in really hard economic times, is better than death.

I am fully aware of the risks as I am going to have to carry on working in a necessary profession. I cannot hide away and wait for this to pass. I have already discussed with my family what we will do if one of us gets seriously ill and we have agreed to stay home and die there if necessary, as going to hospital will not be a viable option within the next couple of weeks. The Government policy is not to stop COVID-19 but only slow it. All of us are very likely to exposed to it over the next couple of years and so any lock down only postpones the inevitable unless a vaccine is developed incredibly quickly - which all the experts say is very unlikely.

My concern is whether a lock down to "flatten the hump" is worth the economic issues that are likely to follow which could cause far more deaths in the long run. But to be fair I do feel sorry for Governments in these days - as they have impossible decisions to make. The UK Government initially took my position and were going to let the virus work through the population to give us herd immunity, but in the last two weeks they have about turned because of the pressure to act. We will only know a year or two away which route we should have taken.

[Hound]

I fear the worst case will be economic melt down, social unrest and whilst flattening the curve a little now, its only storing it up for later in the year

Almost a steady stream of cases over the next 12 months might be the least worst option. And I suppose to do that you would enforce some restrictions, plus ramp up the medical care side as much as is possible - which is not an easy thing to do

I'm not particularly enamoured with talk about flattening of the curve now being any kind of solution - like it will all just magically go away in 3-6 months and its all about limiting the deaths and spread to the absolute minimum now and we'll all be good.

Anyway, in summary I think whatever we do its going to be pretty horrific

[WestYorksRoyal]

I guess the economic fall out from this will only kill people if it's tied to neo-liberal austerity doctrine. The government will have to borrow loads to keep businesses afloat and people fed, to the extent that debt will take 50+ years to pay off.

The same happened in WW2, but we came out of it with solidarity and built our welfare state. It's easy to romanticize the government at the time, but in reality rationing continued into the 1950s to pay for it. Everybody contributed.

Compare this with the financial crisis. Corporation tax and higher rate income tax are lower now than the 90s and 00s; the vulnerable paid for our debt and, yes, people died because of it.

So, we are currently amidst one of our greatest peacetime crises. Of course the government should do whatever it takes to save 500k + lives; I can't believe anybody is debating this.

The question is, once this has blown over, who pays? I think we all should and will happily pay more tax. And if we follow this approach
nobody has to die. To be honest, looking at the past 5 years politically, I think any party looking towards the Thatcherite/Osborne model to pay it off will take a pasting. There will probably be a willingness from the electorate for higher taxes you wouldn't normally see.

But these are future debates. The idea that we should sacrifice half a million people to protect the economy is immoral and vile; I'm pretty sure we all know somebody vulnerable who would essentially be sentenced to death following that approach. Get a grip people.

[Snowball]

We have to flatten the curve for now, and again in 3 months, six months, probably 9 months and 12 months

Some in this thread are saying, "But yeah, we get flu-deaths every year, so..."

This is straight from Public Health England

Public Health England

Surveillance of influenza and other
respiratory viruses in the UK

OFFICIAL FIGURES

2016-17 111 Deaths
2017-18 330 Deaths
2018-19 312 Deaths

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... -FINAL.pdf



2013-14 098 Deaths in 28 Weeks
2014-15 100 Deaths in 28 Weeks
2015-16 209 Deaths in 28 Weeks
2016-17 111 Deaths in 28 Weeks
2017-18 330 Deaths in 28 Weeks
2018-19 312 Deaths in 28 Weeks



That's 1,160 Flu Deaths in 6 years,
an average of 193 per year,
less than seven per week (6.89)
and an average just under one death nationwide per day.

The first Covid-19 Death in the UK was 5th March, 18 days ago

As we don’t yet have today’s deaths, we have had 281 deaths in 17 days,
an average of 16.53 days per day, an average that will go significantly higher

So, perspective. SO FAR Coronavirus is killing UK residents at 16-17 times the annual flu rate

and, presumably we will have also had c 200 seasonal flu deaths.

This is happening WITH the restrictions. Try to imagine the numbers with no restrictions at all.