by Snowball »
27 Mar 2020 08:16
Each Country has a Deaths per Million of Population Statistic.
This is a close to actual statistic, nothing to do with how many people are tested. It's simply the count of confirmed Covid-19 Deaths divided by the country's population. The UK is currently 8.53 deaths per million. Italy's is 135.82, almost 16 times higher (15.92).
This is NOT because Italy's care-system is terrible v the NHS is brilliant. It's because as countries' cases, patients, deaths "mature" the deaths per million rise. Obviously, for all intents and purposes the population is fixed but deaths rise. Countries that started their epidemic earlier will have higher deaths-per-million.
I have watched this number rise from near-zero for eight countries and China stands out as a quite ridiculous set of figures. Cases they are the lowest at 57 pm, the UK 172, USA 259, Germany 524, whereas Luxembourg is 2,321, Switzerland 1,365, Italy 1,333, Spain 1,236
We should expect the UK to eventually pass through 1,000 at the very least.
This table outlines UK casualties if the eventual deaths-per-million were only at the level of these countries (the level they are at today)
135.82 9,208 Italy
093.37 6,330 Spain
022.11 1,499 Switzerland
014.44 0,979 Luxembourg
008.53 0,578 UK
003.94 0,267 USA
003.19 0,216 Germany
002.29 0,155 China
That is, as we mature, as we catch up to Italy's Day-Number (they started earlier) we, could be looking at a number approaching 10,000 dead. That is not the final total. We don't expect all or any countries to simply stop having deaths any time soon. It would be nothing short of a miracle if world and country totals ended up at only twice today's figures.
The first death in the UK was March 5th, Italy's was Feb 21st. In terms of deaths we are roughly 13 days behind Italy.
In terms of cases, Italy reached 10,000 cases March 10th, we passed through 10,000 March 26th. (We lag by 16 days).
If we presume the disease spreads are approximately the same, we would reach Italy's March 26th numbers times 112% (= 9,208) about 14 days from yesterday (April 9th).
What About the Lockdown?
Italy's 11-town lockdown (50,000 people) began February 21st/22nd. The 11 town area was totally quarantined with road-blocks etc.
16 Million people in the North of Italy went into Lockdown March 8th. The lockdown became nationwide March 10th.
The cumulative death total that day was under 700. The total deaths on March 18th were still under 3,000. It is worth noting that there have been 5,300 deaths SINCE then. This is day 17 of total lockdown in Italy. Yesterday 712 died. As yet the lockdown has not slowed the spread significantly, but may, just MAY have started flattening the curve. It's too early to be certain.
Deaths per Day, Italy
196 11-Mar
189 12-Mar
250 13-Mar
175 14-Mar
367 15-Mar
350 16-Mar
345 17-Mar
475 18-Mar
427 19-Mar
627 20-Mar
793 21-Mar
650 22-Mar
602 23-Mar
743 24-Mar (Day 14 of Total Lockdown)
683 25-Mar Day 15
712 26-Mar Day 16
Daily fluctuations, inconsistent reporting times may alter the numbers slightly. A seven day moving average reveals:
17-Mar 267 (Average daily deaths 11th-17th)
18-Mar 307 (12-18th)
19-Mar 341
20-Mar 395
21-Mar 483
22-Mar 524
23-Mar 560
24-Mar 617
25-Mar 646
26-Mar 687 (Average daily deaths 20th-26th inclusive)
The 7-Day Moving Average is still rising.
The UK
Pubs, Cafes, restaurants in the UK were still open Friday March 20th. The UK lock-down more or less started March 21st and took a few days to clear the streets. Again, we are 10-13 days behind Italy
