Coronavirus outbreak

[Linden Jones' Tash]

There is growing evidence to suggest official numbers are just the tip of the iceberg

https://mobile.twitter.com/J_CD_T/statu ... 77867?s=09

It was always about the collateral damage once the healthcare system is stretched beyond capacity

[Snowball]

More than 10% mortality rate now, hold on to your hats folks.

Where do you get this number?

The Official Cases/Deaths ratio is 5.53%

The Death rate on Resolved Cases (Deaths v Recovered) is 20.43%

If you are referring to Cumulative Cases Today-14 v Deaths today...

18-Mar - - - 01-Apr - - - 214,894 - - - 46,854 - - - 21.80% 19.46%
19-Mar - - - 02-Apr - - - 242,191 - - - 52,932 - - - 21.86% 19.98%
20-Mar - - - 03-Apr - - - 271,629 - - - 58,822 - - - 21.66% 20.48%

Explanation of the above: The cumulative Cases on 18-March were 214,894. 14 Days later the cumulative DEATHS were 46,854. That is 21.8% mortality. The two days afterwards are shown with the death-rate.

21.80%
21.86%
21.66%

is VERY consistent

The last column calculates RESOLVED CASES (Recovered/Died) This is "today's" cumulative number and is climbing every day. It looks like it will be at 21.6% in about three days

So I have

(a) 05.30% = Totals Deaths divided by Total Cases (Will be under because we will get a lot of deaths for these older cases)
(b) 21.84% = Cumulative Deaths "Day 15" divided by Cumulative Cases "Day 1" = (15-14)
(c) 20.48% = Cumulative Deaths divided by Cumulative Resolved Cases

(b) and (c) are getting closer and close each day

(a) is always 14 or so days behind. That number is a huge underestimate of eventual deaths for confirmed cases

Of course we do not have figures yet for unconfirmed infected people who are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. Various calculations limit this ratio to an absolute number of 370:1 but this number is guaranteed to drop substantially.

[Jagermesiter1871]

Presumably we have been successful in flattening the curve - either that or our NHS is much better than we thought. We've been told the whole time we're 2 weeks behind Italy. Its been over 2 weeks since Italy first started having to triage patients and there were the horror stories coming out. This hasn't happened here yet.

[Jagermesiter1871]

More than 10% mortality rate now, hold on to your hats folks.

Where do you get this number?

The Official Cases/Deaths ratio is 5.53%

The Death rate on Resolved Cases (Deaths v Recovered) is 20.43%

If you are referring to Cumulative Cases Today-14 v Deaths today...

18-Mar - - - 01-Apr - - - 214,894 - - - 46,854 - - - 21.80% 19.46%
19-Mar - - - 02-Apr - - - 242,191 - - - 52,932 - - - 21.86% 19.98%
20-Mar - - - 03-Apr - - - 271,629 - - - 58,822 - - - 21.66% 20.48%

Explanation of the above: The cumulative Cases on 18-March were 214,894. 14 Days later the cumulative DEATHS were 46,854. That is 21.8% mortality. The two days afterwards are shown with the death-rate.

21.80%
21.86%
21.66%

is VERY consistent

The last column calculates RESOLVED CASES (Recovered/Died) This is "today's" cumulative number and is climbing every day. It looks like it will be at 21.6% in about three days

So I have

(a) 05.30% = Totals Deaths divided by Total Cases (Will be under because we will get a lot of deaths for these older cases)
(b) 21.84% = Cumulative Deaths "Day 15" divided by Cumulative Cases "Day 1" = (15-14)
(c) 20.48% = Cumulative Deaths divided by Cumulative Resolved Cases

(b) and (c) are getting closer and close each day

(a) is always 14 or so days behind. That number is a huge underestimate of eventual deaths for confirmed cases

Of course we do not have figures yet for unconfirmed infected people who are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. Various calculations limit this ratio to an absolute number of 370:1 but this number is guaranteed to drop substantially.

What death rate would a ratio of 370:1 give?

[windermereROYAL]

i never was any good at maths. but the way I read it is 41.903 cases . 10% of that is 4,190, total deaths is 4.313. if I got that wrong, as I said I`m not great at maths.

[Snowball]

This probably needs to be read on a desktop

This is predicted deaths by the two main methods

14-Mar - - - 156,062 - - - 28-Mar - - - 30,845 - - - 19.76% - - - 17.85% - - - 1.91%
15-Mar - - - 162,867 - - - 29-Mar - - - 33,908 - - - 20.82% - - - 18.35% - - - 2.47%
16-Mar - - - 181,377 - - - 30-Mar - - - 37,606 - - - 20.73% - - - 18.58% - - - 2.15%
17-Mar - - - 196,639 - - - 31-Mar - - - 42,069 - - - 21.39% - - - 19.21% - - - 2.18%
18-Mar - - - 214,894 - - - 01-Apr - - - 46,854 - - - 21.80% - - - 19.46% - - - 2.34%
19-Mar - - - 242,191 - - - 02-Apr - - - 52,932 - - - 21.86% - - - 19.98% - - - 1.88%
20-Mar - - - 271,629 - - - 03-Apr - - - 58,822 - - - 21.66% - - - 20.48% - - - 1.18%

Note that simply relating cumulative deaths to the cumulative cases 14 days prior gave a death-rate for confirmed cases of 19.76% for March 28th and this has risen to 21.86% 6 days later. The "Resolved Cases Method" was 17.85% for 28th March, again slowly rising to 20.48%. I think these two algorithms producing such similar "graphs" is amazing.

NOTE how the two methods are coming closer and close each day. The difference between the two methods comes out to an average of 2%. Remember also that the daily totals aren't absolutely robust.

So what happens if we predict the death-toll for midnight tonight?

21-Mar - - - 304,526 - - - 04-Apr - - - 66,387 - - - 21.80% - - - 21.00% - - - 63,950


ATM (@17:45) Cumulative Deaths are 62,444 and looks on course to break 65,000

The range using the two methods are 63,950-66,387

[Zip]

Presumably we have been successful in flattening the curve - either that or our NHS is much better than we thought. We've been told the whole time we're 2 weeks behind Italy. Its been over 2 weeks since Italy first started having to triage patients and there were the horror stories coming out. This hasn't happened here yet.

Yes. There is still ICU availability within the NHS at the moment which is a big positive. We are in surge and Italy appear to have peaked. Our hospitals don’t appear to be struggling to the same degree as Italy were a couple of weeks ago. A couple of grim weeks coming up but hopefully we will then be over the worst.

[Snowball]

More than 10% mortality rate now, hold on to your hats folks.

Where do you get this number?

The Official Cases/Deaths ratio is 5.53%

The Death rate on Resolved Cases (Deaths v Recovered) is 20.43%

If you are referring to Cumulative Cases Today-14 v Deaths today...

18-Mar - - - 01-Apr - - - 214,894 - - - 46,854 - - - 21.80% 19.46%
19-Mar - - - 02-Apr - - - 242,191 - - - 52,932 - - - 21.86% 19.98%
20-Mar - - - 03-Apr - - - 271,629 - - - 58,822 - - - 21.66% 20.48%

Explanation of the above: The cumulative Cases on 18-March were 214,894. 14 Days later the cumulative DEATHS were 46,854. That is 21.8% mortality. The two days afterwards are shown with the death-rate.

21.80%
21.86%
21.66%

is VERY consistent

The last column calculates RESOLVED CASES (Recovered/Died) This is "today's" cumulative number and is climbing every day. It looks like it will be at 21.6% in about three days

So I have

(a) 05.30% = Totals Deaths divided by Total Cases (Will be under because we will get a lot of deaths for these older cases)
(b) 21.84% = Cumulative Deaths "Day 15" divided by Cumulative Cases "Day 1" = (15-14)
(c) 20.48% = Cumulative Deaths divided by Cumulative Resolved Cases

(b) and (c) are getting closer and close each day

(a) is always 14 or so days behind. That number is a huge underestimate of eventual deaths for confirmed cases

Of course we do not have figures yet for unconfirmed infected people who are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. Various calculations limit this ratio to an absolute number of 370:1 but this number is guaranteed to drop substantially.

What death rate would a ratio of 370:1 give?

21.8% which would mean 14,824,000 UK Dead is clearly a false high (or Goodbye)

At 370:1 (Meaning for every confirmed case there are 370 already-infected but not confirmed cases). This number MUST fall automatically) the death rate would be (0.0589% which equates to 40,065 UK Dead.

This 40,065 minimum presumes eventually 100% infection, presumes the virus won't mutate to a less-vicious one, and presumes 100% infection before a vaccine arrives. It also presumes the NHS doesn't collapse. That's at 370:1 - the ABSOLUTE best case .

I think we'll do well if the rate is 100:1 by the final count.

The flatter we make the curve, the smaller number get infected before a virus arrives. There is a chance, too that the virus mutates to a weaker version. We MIGHT also find therapeutic drugs or drug combinations. Even in Wuhan treatment was getting better as the epidemic (epidemic, not pandemic then) proceeded. Info on that on the WHO website

If the unrecorded infected total is 100 times greater than Confirmed Cases the death toll for 100% infection and all the caveats above would be 148,240

[Snowball]

The Maximum Possible Ratio (which comes down for every confirmed case) is

370 UK
375 Spain
485 Italy

You can't take an average of this. It's the lowest number that matters


For Spain and Italy the number is calculated by dividing their actual confirmed cases into their population. That is 1 in 375 Spaniards officially have it, so IF every person in the country has it there would be 374 un-discovered and 1 discovered for every 375 people. The ratio cannot be higher because the total is the total population

Spain (if there were 374 people with the virus but unknown)...

124,736 Confirmed Cases * 375 = 46,776,000

Spain's population is 46,750,098

46,776,000
46,750,098

so the ratio cannot be over 374:1

[tmesis]

Presumably we have been successful in flattening the curve - either that or our NHS is much better than we thought. We've been told the whole time we're 2 weeks behind Italy. Its been over 2 weeks since Italy first started having to triage patients and there were the horror stories coming out. This hasn't happened here yet.

Yes. There is still ICU availability within the NHS at the moment which is a big positive. We are in surge and Italy appear to have peaked. Our hospitals don’t appear to be struggling to the same degree as Italy were a couple of weeks ago. A couple of grim weeks coming up but hopefully we will then be over the worst.

I think one problem in Italy was that cases were very concentrated in relatively small areas, whereas we seem to have a more even spread. Spain also had an incredibly high proportion in the Madrid area.

[PieEater]

I can only talk clearly about Japan, so until recently anyone entering the country had go into 14 days quarantine and to do that they had to have a place to stay here and had to have pre-arranged non-public transport to take them to their place of quarantine. If they did not have that then they were not allowed to leave the airport and were held their. Now all non-Japanese nationals from most of the world cannot get in at all. Visa's are no longer valid.

Within Japan itself the debate is high. Public buildings museums etc are closed and prefecture (large counties) governments are telling private spaces like these to close. Schools have been closed since Feb. However, sports clubs are still running, most shops are still open, transport is still running and people are still going to work. For example, a friend of mine lives in Suma and travels an hour each way to Osaka to work each day. He's a designer and could work from home.

The issue here is the central government is weak and seemingly cannot make the decision to shut the country down. This is a cultural thing, since WWII Japan has had a peaceful constitution so have avoided conflicts and apart from earthquakes has had few disasters to deal with. This coupled with a good standard of living and being an island nation means the average Japanese see's things happening in the world as happening elsewhere and not affecting them. Added to this, they simply do not trust the politicians.

So, when the politicians weakly say we would prefer you not to eat out and to try to work from home. No one truly believes them because they do not deliver the message anywhere near as strongly as Boris has.

Japanese people are naturally cautious and health conscious so given the above comments what you have here now is a government wanting people to isolate but not brave enough to make them do it... "we'll see where we are in a few days" and a population split with half doing what they can to minimise contact and the other half just carrying on as normal.

It's a long answer but that's why we haven't been quarantined here yet.

I know a little about Taiwan too because I have friends there and they have told me that their approach is to test a lot and especially in public places, train stations etc.. Anyone found to have a high temperature is immediately isolated and taken for testing and if they are positive then they trace back their movements and anyone they have been in contact is also isolated.

They have been successful so far because numbers in Taiwan are low, which is amazing given the amount of Chinese tourists that go there. Though Pooh Bear may have done Taiwan a favour here, because in his attempt to force Taiwan back under Chinese control he has reduced the number of visas to visit there an in doing so has reduced the number of tourists visiting Taiwan from the mainland which has probably also reduced the infection rate..

I know less of the Korean approach but have discussed it a little with some Korean friends and their approach seems similar to the Taiwan one, test a lot and then work hard to isolate though they have been in contact with. That's why they are so pissed with the religious group blamed for starting the outbreak because they refused to divulge it and by the time they did it was too late to shut it down. A bit like what happened in China though this time not by the state.

Out of Korea, Taiwan and Japan, my worry is for us here, because of the reasons highlighted above. Our numbers are growing and as you have seen in the UK unless you check it will double and quickly. Tokyo admitted in 40% of the cases recently they could not trace it back to the source, Greater Tokyo is 25-30M people, If it breaks out there (its where the majority of the recent cases are) and people start running back to the places in Japan they came from (many move there for work like with London) then it could spread all over Japan very quickly.

To answer your question why have we not quarantined here, my answer is ask Abe, its what most of the country is doing right now.

Interesting read, it look me a few seconds to realise who Pooh bear was!

[Snowball]

The range using the two methods are 63,950-66,387

63,950 Min
64,384 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Actual at 22:10
66,387 Max

It might even go beyond the max prediction (not good news)

New Confirmed Cases is also a record, 14,000 above the previous wise day (22:10)

[Jagermesiter1871]

Presumably we have been successful in flattening the curve - either that or our NHS is much better than we thought. We've been told the whole time we're 2 weeks behind Italy. Its been over 2 weeks since Italy first started having to triage patients and there were the horror stories coming out. This hasn't happened here yet.

Yes. There is still ICU availability within the NHS at the moment which is a big positive. We are in surge and Italy appear to have peaked. Our hospitals don’t appear to be struggling to the same degree as Italy were a couple of weeks ago. A couple of grim weeks coming up but hopefully we will then be over the worst.

I think one problem in Italy was that cases were very concentrated in relatively small areas, whereas we seem to have a more even spread. Spain also had an incredibly high proportion in the Madrid area.

Aren't we very concentrated in London? I'm guessing not as concentrated though but thats an assumption.

[Lower West]

Presumably we have been successful in flattening the curve - either that or our NHS is much better than we thought. We've been told the whole time we're 2 weeks behind Italy. Its been over 2 weeks since Italy first started having to triage patients and there were the horror stories coming out. This hasn't happened here yet.

Yes. There is still ICU availability within the NHS at the moment which is a big positive. We are in surge and Italy appear to have peaked. Our hospitals don’t appear to be struggling to the same degree as Italy were a couple of weeks ago. A couple of grim weeks coming up but hopefully we will then be over the worst.

I think one problem in Italy was that cases were very concentrated in relatively small areas, whereas we seem to have a more even spread. Spain also had an incredibly high proportion in the Madrid area.

West Midlands recodrd higher deaths than London in past 24 hours. Some of this may be cultural, i.e. religous. Which does appear to be a reoccuring theme for some of the hotspots. France. Spain, Italy and India for eg. God will protect........

[Snowball]

The range using the two methods are

63,950 <<<<<<<Min Deaths Estimate based on Deaths / Completed Cases 21.0%

64,650 <<<<<<< Actual Deaths = Cumulative Cases Day-14 x 21.23%

66,387 <<<<<<< Max Deaths Estimate from Cumulative Cases for Day-14 x 21.8% (extrapolated from last 4 days)

[Snowball]

Cases very bad today, but deaths very fractionally down

102,897 New Cases (Up 23% on yesterday)

5,828 New Deaths (Down 1% on yesterday)

[Snowball]

Cases very bad today, but deaths very fractionally down

102,897 New Cases (Up 23% on yesterday)

5,828 New Deaths (Down 1% on yesterday)

Forgot that France had an “administrative” one-off hike in their numbers (previously mentioned) of about 18,000 which would mean that yesterday’s Cases would have been about 85,000

[tmesis]

Yes. There is still ICU availability within the NHS at the moment which is a big positive. We are in surge and Italy appear to have peaked. Our hospitals don’t appear to be struggling to the same degree as Italy were a couple of weeks ago. A couple of grim weeks coming up but hopefully we will then be over the worst.

I think one problem in Italy was that cases were very concentrated in relatively small areas, whereas we seem to have a more even spread. Spain also had an incredibly high proportion in the Madrid area.

West Midlands recodrd higher deaths than London in past 24 hours. Some of this may be cultural, i.e. religous. Which does appear to be a reoccuring theme for some of the hotspots. France. Spain, Italy and India for eg. God will protect........

It might also be a case of immigrant households having more people in than average.

As for "God will protect", the highest infection rate per capita? The Vatican.

[sandman]

I think one problem in Italy was that cases were very concentrated in relatively small areas, whereas we seem to have a more even spread. Spain also had an incredibly high proportion in the Madrid area.

West Midlands recodrd higher deaths than London in past 24 hours. Some of this may be cultural, i.e. religous. Which does appear to be a reoccuring theme for some of the hotspots. France. Spain, Italy and India for eg. God will protect........

It might also be a case of immigrant households having more people in than average.

As for "God will protect", the highest infection rate per capita? The Vatican.

Clearly the Lord is punishing them for touching all those kids in his name.

[Snowball]

Deaths are down today but I think that's an anomaly or "weekend admin slack"

More importantly is that NEW CASES have jumped by a record 5,903 cases in a day. That is a daily total that exceeds the cumulative total reached on March 22nd. That 5,903 Cases at 20.6% mortality will mean 1,216 deaths in 14 days time (April 19)

Also worrying is that the crude death rate (cumulative deaths over cumulative cases), always a significant under-estimate has reached 10.32%. For whatever reason this is almost TWICE the world-rate (5.4%) and almost exactly double the rate when China is excluded (5.2%)

This 10% might be what Windy was referring to yesterday?

The worldwide hospital death rate (Deaths/Completed Cases) is now 20.6%. There is no reason to suppose that the UK's rate is lower.

It should be noted that not all confirmed cases end up in hospital. Are there stats on Hospital admissions for Covid-19? If, for example, a third of confirmed cases DON'T go into hospital, then that would mean 31% of people being hospitalised are dying. If half manage not to go to hospital then the death rate for those going into hospital is 41%. Fearsome figures.