by Linden Jones' Tash » 04 Apr 2020 16:01
by Snowball » 04 Apr 2020 17:12
windermereROYAL More than 10% mortality rate now, hold on to your hats folks.
by Jagermesiter1871 » 04 Apr 2020 17:12
by Jagermesiter1871 » 04 Apr 2020 17:14
SnowballwindermereROYAL More than 10% mortality rate now, hold on to your hats folks.
Where do you get this number?
The Official Cases/Deaths ratio is 5.53%
The Death rate on Resolved Cases (Deaths v Recovered) is 20.43%
If you are referring to Cumulative Cases Today-14 v Deaths today...
18-Mar - - - 01-Apr - - - 214,894 - - - 46,854 - - - 21.80% 19.46%
19-Mar - - - 02-Apr - - - 242,191 - - - 52,932 - - - 21.86% 19.98%
20-Mar - - - 03-Apr - - - 271,629 - - - 58,822 - - - 21.66% 20.48%
Explanation of the above: The cumulative Cases on 18-March were 214,894. 14 Days later the cumulative DEATHS were 46,854. That is 21.8% mortality. The two days afterwards are shown with the death-rate.
21.80%
21.86%
21.66%
is VERY consistent
The last column calculates RESOLVED CASES (Recovered/Died) This is "today's" cumulative number and is climbing every day. It looks like it will be at 21.6% in about three days
So I have
(a) 05.30% = Totals Deaths divided by Total Cases (Will be under because we will get a lot of deaths for these older cases)
(b) 21.84% = Cumulative Deaths "Day 15" divided by Cumulative Cases "Day 1" = (15-14)
(c) 20.48% = Cumulative Deaths divided by Cumulative Resolved Cases
(b) and (c) are getting closer and close each day
(a) is always 14 or so days behind. That number is a huge underestimate of eventual deaths for confirmed cases
Of course we do not have figures yet for unconfirmed infected people who are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. Various calculations limit this ratio to an absolute number of 370:1 but this number is guaranteed to drop substantially.
by windermereROYAL » 04 Apr 2020 17:18
by Snowball » 04 Apr 2020 17:47
by Zip » 04 Apr 2020 18:02
Jagermesiter1871 Presumably we have been successful in flattening the curve - either that or our NHS is much better than we thought. We've been told the whole time we're 2 weeks behind Italy. Its been over 2 weeks since Italy first started having to triage patients and there were the horror stories coming out. This hasn't happened here yet.
by Snowball » 04 Apr 2020 18:05
Jagermesiter1871SnowballwindermereROYAL More than 10% mortality rate now, hold on to your hats folks.
Where do you get this number?
The Official Cases/Deaths ratio is 5.53%
The Death rate on Resolved Cases (Deaths v Recovered) is 20.43%
If you are referring to Cumulative Cases Today-14 v Deaths today...
18-Mar - - - 01-Apr - - - 214,894 - - - 46,854 - - - 21.80% 19.46%
19-Mar - - - 02-Apr - - - 242,191 - - - 52,932 - - - 21.86% 19.98%
20-Mar - - - 03-Apr - - - 271,629 - - - 58,822 - - - 21.66% 20.48%
Explanation of the above: The cumulative Cases on 18-March were 214,894. 14 Days later the cumulative DEATHS were 46,854. That is 21.8% mortality. The two days afterwards are shown with the death-rate.
21.80%
21.86%
21.66%
is VERY consistent
The last column calculates RESOLVED CASES (Recovered/Died) This is "today's" cumulative number and is climbing every day. It looks like it will be at 21.6% in about three days
So I have
(a) 05.30% = Totals Deaths divided by Total Cases (Will be under because we will get a lot of deaths for these older cases)
(b) 21.84% = Cumulative Deaths "Day 15" divided by Cumulative Cases "Day 1" = (15-14)
(c) 20.48% = Cumulative Deaths divided by Cumulative Resolved Cases
(b) and (c) are getting closer and close each day
(a) is always 14 or so days behind. That number is a huge underestimate of eventual deaths for confirmed cases
Of course we do not have figures yet for unconfirmed infected people who are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. Various calculations limit this ratio to an absolute number of 370:1 but this number is guaranteed to drop substantially.
What death rate would a ratio of 370:1 give?
by Snowball » 04 Apr 2020 18:18
by tmesis » 04 Apr 2020 19:53
ZipJagermesiter1871 Presumably we have been successful in flattening the curve - either that or our NHS is much better than we thought. We've been told the whole time we're 2 weeks behind Italy. Its been over 2 weeks since Italy first started having to triage patients and there were the horror stories coming out. This hasn't happened here yet.
Yes. There is still ICU availability within the NHS at the moment which is a big positive. We are in surge and Italy appear to have peaked. Our hospitals don’t appear to be struggling to the same degree as Italy were a couple of weeks ago. A couple of grim weeks coming up but hopefully we will then be over the worst.
by PieEater » 04 Apr 2020 20:25
Cape Town Royal
I can only talk clearly about Japan, so until recently anyone entering the country had go into 14 days quarantine and to do that they had to have a place to stay here and had to have pre-arranged non-public transport to take them to their place of quarantine. If they did not have that then they were not allowed to leave the airport and were held their. Now all non-Japanese nationals from most of the world cannot get in at all. Visa's are no longer valid.
Within Japan itself the debate is high. Public buildings museums etc are closed and prefecture (large counties) governments are telling private spaces like these to close. Schools have been closed since Feb. However, sports clubs are still running, most shops are still open, transport is still running and people are still going to work. For example, a friend of mine lives in Suma and travels an hour each way to Osaka to work each day. He's a designer and could work from home.
The issue here is the central government is weak and seemingly cannot make the decision to shut the country down. This is a cultural thing, since WWII Japan has had a peaceful constitution so have avoided conflicts and apart from earthquakes has had few disasters to deal with. This coupled with a good standard of living and being an island nation means the average Japanese see's things happening in the world as happening elsewhere and not affecting them. Added to this, they simply do not trust the politicians.
So, when the politicians weakly say we would prefer you not to eat out and to try to work from home. No one truly believes them because they do not deliver the message anywhere near as strongly as Boris has.
Japanese people are naturally cautious and health conscious so given the above comments what you have here now is a government wanting people to isolate but not brave enough to make them do it... "we'll see where we are in a few days" and a population split with half doing what they can to minimise contact and the other half just carrying on as normal.
It's a long answer but that's why we haven't been quarantined here yet.
I know a little about Taiwan too because I have friends there and they have told me that their approach is to test a lot and especially in public places, train stations etc.. Anyone found to have a high temperature is immediately isolated and taken for testing and if they are positive then they trace back their movements and anyone they have been in contact is also isolated.
They have been successful so far because numbers in Taiwan are low, which is amazing given the amount of Chinese tourists that go there. Though Pooh Bear may have done Taiwan a favour here, because in his attempt to force Taiwan back under Chinese control he has reduced the number of visas to visit there an in doing so has reduced the number of tourists visiting Taiwan from the mainland which has probably also reduced the infection rate..
I know less of the Korean approach but have discussed it a little with some Korean friends and their approach seems similar to the Taiwan one, test a lot and then work hard to isolate though they have been in contact with. That's why they are so pissed with the religious group blamed for starting the outbreak because they refused to divulge it and by the time they did it was too late to shut it down. A bit like what happened in China though this time not by the state.
Out of Korea, Taiwan and Japan, my worry is for us here, because of the reasons highlighted above. Our numbers are growing and as you have seen in the UK unless you check it will double and quickly. Tokyo admitted in 40% of the cases recently they could not trace it back to the source, Greater Tokyo is 25-30M people, If it breaks out there (its where the majority of the recent cases are) and people start running back to the places in Japan they came from (many move there for work like with London) then it could spread all over Japan very quickly.
To answer your question why have we not quarantined here, my answer is ask Abe, its what most of the country is doing right now.
by Snowball » 04 Apr 2020 20:51
Snowball
The range using the two methods are 63,950-66,387
by Jagermesiter1871 » 04 Apr 2020 20:53
tmesisZipJagermesiter1871 Presumably we have been successful in flattening the curve - either that or our NHS is much better than we thought. We've been told the whole time we're 2 weeks behind Italy. Its been over 2 weeks since Italy first started having to triage patients and there were the horror stories coming out. This hasn't happened here yet.
Yes. There is still ICU availability within the NHS at the moment which is a big positive. We are in surge and Italy appear to have peaked. Our hospitals don’t appear to be struggling to the same degree as Italy were a couple of weeks ago. A couple of grim weeks coming up but hopefully we will then be over the worst.
I think one problem in Italy was that cases were very concentrated in relatively small areas, whereas we seem to have a more even spread. Spain also had an incredibly high proportion in the Madrid area.
by Lower West » 04 Apr 2020 22:15
tmesisZipJagermesiter1871 Presumably we have been successful in flattening the curve - either that or our NHS is much better than we thought. We've been told the whole time we're 2 weeks behind Italy. Its been over 2 weeks since Italy first started having to triage patients and there were the horror stories coming out. This hasn't happened here yet.
Yes. There is still ICU availability within the NHS at the moment which is a big positive. We are in surge and Italy appear to have peaked. Our hospitals don’t appear to be struggling to the same degree as Italy were a couple of weeks ago. A couple of grim weeks coming up but hopefully we will then be over the worst.
I think one problem in Italy was that cases were very concentrated in relatively small areas, whereas we seem to have a more even spread. Spain also had an incredibly high proportion in the Madrid area.
by Snowball » 05 Apr 2020 00:07
Snowball
The range using the two methods are
by Snowball » 05 Apr 2020 00:14
by Snowball » 05 Apr 2020 06:54
Snowball Cases very bad today, but deaths very fractionally down
102,897 New Cases (Up 23% on yesterday)
5,828 New Deaths (Down 1% on yesterday)
by tmesis » 05 Apr 2020 09:08
Lower WesttmesisZip
Yes. There is still ICU availability within the NHS at the moment which is a big positive. We are in surge and Italy appear to have peaked. Our hospitals don’t appear to be struggling to the same degree as Italy were a couple of weeks ago. A couple of grim weeks coming up but hopefully we will then be over the worst.
I think one problem in Italy was that cases were very concentrated in relatively small areas, whereas we seem to have a more even spread. Spain also had an incredibly high proportion in the Madrid area.
West Midlands recodrd higher deaths than London in past 24 hours. Some of this may be cultural, i.e. religous. Which does appear to be a reoccuring theme for some of the hotspots. France. Spain, Italy and India for eg. God will protect........
by sandman » 05 Apr 2020 09:35
tmesisLower Westtmesis I think one problem in Italy was that cases were very concentrated in relatively small areas, whereas we seem to have a more even spread. Spain also had an incredibly high proportion in the Madrid area.
West Midlands recodrd higher deaths than London in past 24 hours. Some of this may be cultural, i.e. religous. Which does appear to be a reoccuring theme for some of the hotspots. France. Spain, Italy and India for eg. God will protect........
It might also be a case of immigrant households having more people in than average.
As for "God will protect", the highest infection rate per capita? The Vatican.
by Snowball » 05 Apr 2020 15:13
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