by The Real Sandhurst Royal » 19 Mar 2020 09:08
by Zip » 19 Mar 2020 09:25
by SCIAG » 19 Mar 2020 09:51
Snowball SARS, Bats
MERS, Camels
Novel-Coronavirus covid-19 traced to animal market
3 out of 3
Bird Flu
4 out of 4
There are Coronaviruses common in many species including food animals.
Most of them are relative benign most of the time
It’s effortless to confirm this.
Theoretically, at any time, transmission time humans is possible.
Viruses mutate over time
Every year more or less we get new variants of seasonal flu, new mutations and a new annual vaccine.
Where do you suppose those viruses were, on holiday?
by andrew1957 » 19 Mar 2020 10:42
by Wycombe Royal » 19 Mar 2020 10:45
Zip So Italy is suffering a death rate double the rest of the world it seems. Is there a specific reason for that? Is it due to more elderly being infected? Is there an age breakdown for those affected?
by Jagermesiter1871 » 19 Mar 2020 12:58
andrew1957 Having been in financial services for the last 40 years I have worked through the crashes of 1987, 2001 and 2008 and a number of smaller incidents, but this one truly has the potential to be worse.
What bothers me is that the Governments/Central Banks seem to be acting very reactively and slowly and this is making matters worse. I would say that whether the global economy gets through this without either a collapse or high/hyperinflation (as Governments print unlimited amounts of currency) is 50-50 at best.
If the worst happens then far more people across the world could die from an economic collapse than from COVID-19. I really hope that I am wrong on this but there is a chance life might never go back to the way that it was. Maybe it will be simpler and better than our current mad stressful existence.
I would wish all my fellow nobbers well and would hope that you keep virus free if at all possible. Suggest you all spend as much time as possible with your families, appreciate all that you have and keep short accounts with both God and man.
Good luck.
by Snowball » 19 Mar 2020 13:12
Wycombe RoyalZip So Italy is suffering a death rate double the rest of the world it seems. Is there a specific reason for that? Is it due to more elderly being infected? Is there an age breakdown for those affected?
Could just be due to a different testing regime, as the reported death rate is against the amount of positive cases identified.
by Snowball » 19 Mar 2020 13:14
by Wycombe Royal » 19 Mar 2020 14:02
SnowballWycombe RoyalZip So Italy is suffering a death rate double the rest of the world it seems. Is there a specific reason for that? Is it due to more elderly being infected? Is there an age breakdown for those affected?
Could just be due to a different testing regime, as the reported death rate is against the amount of positive cases identified.
One thing to look at is “Number Recovered”
In China this is quite high because they were peaking Xmas onward. Even so there about 7,000 still NOT recovered.
If all those were to die then the death rate would be 12-13% (one in eight)
If you look at the UK, ATM less than 100 confirmed cases have recovered
People are looking at
Confirmed Infections
Deaths
Quite understandable!
ATM the world death rate is 4% or so for CONFIRMED infections
To make a complete tally we need to add “Still Sick” and Recovered
Many who are still very sick and will die, as I said. Country figures are not comparable if their early cases were at different times and their total infections curve were not the same.
Hence the UK/US is said to be 2-3 weeks “behind” Italy
Simply, there has been more time for Italians to die. We need to look at comparisons 2-3 weeks post-peak
Differences later in the pandemic may be down to Health Care quality but right now it’s hard to say
by Snowball » 19 Mar 2020 14:40
by Snowball » 19 Mar 2020 14:43
Wycombe RoyalSnowballWycombe Royal Could just be due to a different testing regime, as the reported death rate is against the amount of positive cases identified.
One thing to look at is “Number Recovered”
In China this is quite high because they were peaking Xmas onward. Even so there about 7,000 still NOT recovered.
If all those were to die then the death rate would be 12-13% (one in eight)
If you look at the UK, ATM less than 100 confirmed cases have recovered
People are looking at
Confirmed Infections
Deaths
Quite understandable!
ATM the world death rate is 4% or so for CONFIRMED infections
To make a complete tally we need to add “Still Sick” and Recovered
Many who are still very sick and will die, as I said. Country figures are not comparable if their early cases were at different times and their total infections curve were not the same.
Hence the UK/US is said to be 2-3 weeks “behind” Italy
Simply, there has been more time for Italians to die. We need to look at comparisons 2-3 weeks post-peak
Differences later in the pandemic may be down to Health Care quality but right now it’s hard to say
But it is also down to how many peiople are being tested. If a country is only testing those seriously ill then they will have a higher death rate, if a country is doing a more thorough testing, i.e those with some milder symptons, then their death rate would be lower.
There are many moving parts and there is no right answer despite your attempts to find one.
I wonder if Shane Long has been tested?
I currently have a temperature of 38.6...should i be concerned......still working though (at home).
by Aeroguide » 19 Mar 2020 16:17
by RoyalBlue » 19 Mar 2020 16:51
Wycombe RoyalZip So Italy is suffering a death rate double the rest of the world it seems. Is there a specific reason for that? Is it due to more elderly being infected? Is there an age breakdown for those affected?
Could just be due to a different testing regime, as the reported death rate is against the amount of positive cases identified.
by Sutekh » 19 Mar 2020 17:15
by Singing Defective » 19 Mar 2020 17:58
by Snowball » 19 Mar 2020 18:35
by tmesis » 19 Mar 2020 18:53
Snowball Last Four Days
16th = 1,543 - 055 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.56%
17th = 1,950 - 071 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.64%
18th = 2,626 - 104 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.96%
19th = 3,269 - 144 Deaths Death-Rate = 4.41%
What I note from the above is that the death-rate appears to be climbing steadily each day, so far
by Snowball » 19 Mar 2020 19:07
tmesisSnowball Last Four Days
16th = 1,543 - 055 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.56%
17th = 1,950 - 071 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.64%
18th = 2,626 - 104 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.96%
19th = 3,269 - 144 Deaths Death-Rate = 4.41%
What I note from the above is that the death-rate appears to be climbing steadily each day, so far
Fewer tests (as a % of people reporting symptoms) possibly account for the higher rate.
Deaths will also lag behind cases by a good while. People getting it today might not die for two weeks.
The actual mortality rate might well be lower than 1%, which is a good thing, but would still be horrific if it spread uncontrolled
by Snowball » 19 Mar 2020 19:28
by Westwood52 » 19 Mar 2020 20:03
andrew1957 Having been in financial services for the last 40 years I have worked through the crashes of 1987, 2001 and 2008 and a number of smaller incidents, but this one truly has the potential to be worse.
What bothers me is that the Governments/Central Banks seem to be acting very reactively and slowly and this is making matters worse. I would say that whether the global economy gets through this without either a collapse or high/hyperinflation (as Governments print unlimited amounts of currency) is 50-50 at best.
If the worst happens then far more people across the world could die from an economic collapse than from COVID-19. I really hope that I am wrong on this but there is a chance life might never go back to the way that it was. Maybe it will be simpler and better than our current mad stressful existence.
I would wish all my fellow nobbers well and would hope that you keep virus free if at all possible. Suggest you all spend as much time as possible with your families, appreciate all that you have and keep short accounts with both God and man.
Good luck.
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