Coronavirus outbreak

[Snowball]

I started keeping numbers 10:39 12th March (last Wednesday)

8/9 days ago, World Official Cases were 126,660 with 46,660 outside China

(I fixed Chinese cases then at 80,000 as they were broken down into regions and hard to pick up)

12-Mar 10:39 126,660 046,660 excl China
20-Mar 07:13 244,523 163,523 excl China 10,031 6,794 4.10% 4.15%

07:13 this morning 9 days later, world figures have almost doubled. Will pass "doubled today)

But NON-CHINA numbers have increased 3.5 - fold

in 8/9 days

12-Mar 10:39 046,660
20-Mar 07:13 163,523 10,031 6,794 4.10% 4.15% (China reset at 81,000)

the 4.10% figure is world Official Cases/Death Rate
the 4.15% figure is without "stable" China


DEATHS

I have tried to find a time for when world CV19 deaths passed 5,000

On my spreadsheet I marked 5,000 at 15:53 on 13th. But that is a suspiciously
round number. I can't remember what I did that day. I think it must have been
5300 or so at the end of the day and I just put 5000 a little earlier. I only started
recording deaths formally the following day. But 5,000 was passed very close to
that time on the 13th.

If anyone can Google the exact time (probably meaningless anyway as data
is moving all the time) please let me know.

13th March 15:53 05,000 Deaths
20th March 07:13 10,031 Deaths

Deaths have more than doubled in eight hours short of seven days

[Zip]

So Italy is suffering a death rate double the rest of the world it seems. Is there a specific reason for that? Is it due to more elderly being infected? Is there an age breakdown for those affected?

To answer your second question - the age breakdown is overwhelmingly old patients in Italy.

It has been surmised that the following is contributing to the high death rate in Italy
1. The number of old people in Italy
2. The recording of death to coronavirus is very generous and in Italy essentially means "death with coronavirus"
3. Lombardy has a high(er) rate of comorbidity with lung disease
4. Italy has a ventilator shortage and cannot ventilate everybody.

The concept that this the Italy results are suprising because Italy has one of the best NHS's in Europe has essentially been debunked because a) the statistics are out of date and show that Italy USED to have one of the best NHS;s. b) The measure of NHS worthiness is not especially weighted towards indicators that it is making people better. There are a lot of different factors that contribute to that score

As to whether their lockdown is working or not is a highly charged debate. I think there are merits to both sides of the debate here. Lockdown doesnt have an endgame and will destroy your economy. There is a short term gain with long term problems. Not locking down will increase the spread of the virus. There are short term problems, but will be better in the long term. The preppers need the curfew breakers to keep the economy going, and to provide some level of immunity to future outbreaks. The curfew breakers need the preppers to keep the current situation manageable. TBH, I dont particularly criticise either the preppers or the curfew breakers - I think we need a balance. The UK approach may appear outwardly shambolic (thats because it is!) but it may prove to be one of the better models.

Thanks for that. It will be all eyes on Italy when they come out of lockdown. Given their economy was already struggling they really could be in deep trouble if the lockdown continues much longer.

[Royalwaster]

I have evidence that the UK actively does not want to know how many cases of coronavirus there are - my friend's wife has MS and had to take her to hospital this week with what seemed like the usual symptoms, but they did not test her. The reason seems to be that if they test her and she turns out positive, they have to keep her in hospital - so they preferred to not test her and send her home.

[Hound]

As to whether their lockdown is working or not is a highly charged debate. I think there are merits to both sides of the debate here. Lockdown doesnt have an endgame and will destroy your economy. There is a short term gain with long term problems. Not locking down will increase the spread of the virus. There are short term problems, but will be better in the long term. The preppers need the curfew breakers to keep the economy going, and to provide some level of immunity to future outbreaks. The curfew breakers need the preppers to keep the current situation manageable. TBH, I dont particularly criticise either the preppers or the curfew breakers - I think we need a balance. The UK approach may appear outwardly shambolic (thats because it is!) but it may prove to be one of the better models.

yeah agreed pretty much. Both models have big issues. I do think people become blinkered to that we should just lock everything down full stop, and thats how you manage a pandemic and its become an emotive argument (understandable) rather than a practical one.

[Sutekh]

The RFU has ended (not voided) their season for all clubs below the top division (with relegation from the top division already sorted and Newcastle yet to drop a point in the division below that aspect of promotion wouldn’t matter anyway). Could that be a precedent football follows...?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51974684

For me, I’d rather the football season was just ended as it stands if it was between that or being voided though...

[Royalwaster]

Interesting article on why developing a vaccine is no walk in the park ...

https://www.sciencealert.com/who-says-a ... onths-away

[Cape Town Royal]

Its been interesting reading all your comments and how things are in the UK. I'm in Japan and so far the confirmed numbers have remained fairly stable which is surprising given the number of Chinese tourists that came here up until it all went bang.. However for the 900 or so cases we have here the death rate is about 3.5% which given the quality of the health system here seems high especially when compared to South Korea's low percentage. Maybe its because we have a high percentage of old people and the testing has been lower?

Today they have told us to avoid using public transport in the Osaka area which seems strange given we only have 900+ confirmed cases of which about 200 have been finalised. But seriously if you walk about you would never believe there was a pandemic in full flow... Yesterday I was in Kobe city, people walking about in the city as normal (it is almost impossible to stop Japanese women going shopping), but some shops were closing (it seems voluntary) and today in my area I went to the supermarket and the kids (schools are closed) are all out playing football / volleyball / baseball in the parks whilst the mums are all sat en-masse on mats around the edge having picnic parties..

A few days ago they repeated the aim to hold the Olympics in July? Really? We have tickets but just cannot see how they can start to even consider holding it in July given the numbers globally are climbing the walls at an almost vertical rate and its only 4 months away... Who's going to come (you can't get into Japan as of yesterday from most countries) and how can athletes get ready..

Seriously, if you were not aware of the pandemic and came to Japan the way people are going about their daily lives you would never know we were in the middle of a global pandemic...

I am not sure where else in the world we have Reading fans but would be interesting to read how fans in other countries are being affected by this...

[Snowball]

13th March 15:53 05,000 Deaths

20th March 07:13 10,031 Deaths
20th March 18:13 11,147 Deaths

That is 1,116 deaths in 7 Hours (as posted, not actual)

These are not necessarily deaths of this amount in these exact 11 hours
due to the way dta is collected, collated and posted, but it is indicative of
a very rapid growth in deaths

Yesterday (24 hours ago) compared to now is a growth of 1,362 deaths

17:43 235,404 154,404 09,785 6,548
18:13 265,495 184,495 11,147 7,910

Non-China is ALSO 1,362 deaths in a day

19-Mar 17:43 154,404 6,548 4.16% 4.24%
20-Mar 18:13 184,495 7,910 4.20% 4.29%

The Non-China Mortality Rate (for confirmed cases) has risen again from 3.71% on 16-Mar at 03:33 to now 4.29%

Some of this rise may be anomalous, due to changes in testing regimes but remember deaths lag cases by 9-14+ days

[Zip]

Its been interesting reading all your comments and how things are in the UK. I'm in Japan and so far the confirmed numbers have remained fairly stable which is surprising given the number of Chinese tourists that came here up until it all went bang.. However for the 900 or so cases we have here the death rate is about 3.5% which given the quality of the health system here seems high especially when compared to South Korea's low percentage. Maybe its because we have a high percentage of old people and the testing has been lower?

Today they have told us to avoid using public transport in the Osaka area which seems strange given we only have 900+ confirmed cases of which about 200 have been finalised. But seriously if you walk about you would never believe there was a pandemic in full flow... Yesterday I was in Kobe city, people walking about in the city as normal (it is almost impossible to stop Japanese women going shopping), but some shops were closing (it seems voluntary) and today in my area I went to the supermarket and the kids (schools are closed) are all out playing football / volleyball / baseball in the parks whilst the mums are all sat en-masse on mats around the edge having picnic parties..

A few days ago they repeated the aim to hold the Olympics in July? Really? We have tickets but just cannot see how they can start to even consider holding it in July given the numbers globally are climbing the walls at an almost vertical rate and its only 4 months away... Who's going to come (you can't get into Japan as of yesterday from most countries) and how can athletes get ready..

Seriously, if you were not aware of the pandemic and came to Japan the way people are going about their daily lives you would never know we were in the middle of a global pandemic...

I am not sure where else in the world we have Reading fans but would be interesting to read how fans in other countries are being affected by this...

Fascinating insight. The only thing I can say is it may well change very quickly in Japan. I live just outside Cheltenham. This time last week the town was packed out with festival visitors. Fast forward a week and it’s very quiet out there tonight.

[Jagermesiter1871]

Its been interesting reading all your comments and how things are in the UK. I'm in Japan and so far the confirmed numbers have remained fairly stable which is surprising given the number of Chinese tourists that came here up until it all went bang.. However for the 900 or so cases we have here the death rate is about 3.5% which given the quality of the health system here seems high especially when compared to South Korea's low percentage. Maybe its because we have a high percentage of old people and the testing has been lower?

Today they have told us to avoid using public transport in the Osaka area which seems strange given we only have 900+ confirmed cases of which about 200 have been finalised. But seriously if you walk about you would never believe there was a pandemic in full flow... Yesterday I was in Kobe city, people walking about in the city as normal (it is almost impossible to stop Japanese women going shopping), but some shops were closing (it seems voluntary) and today in my area I went to the supermarket and the kids (schools are closed) are all out playing football / volleyball / baseball in the parks whilst the mums are all sat en-masse on mats around the edge having picnic parties..

A few days ago they repeated the aim to hold the Olympics in July? Really? We have tickets but just cannot see how they can start to even consider holding it in July given the numbers globally are climbing the walls at an almost vertical rate and its only 4 months away... Who's going to come (you can't get into Japan as of yesterday from most countries) and how can athletes get ready..

Seriously, if you were not aware of the pandemic and came to Japan the way people are going about their daily lives you would never know we were in the middle of a global pandemic...

I am not sure where else in the world we have Reading fans but would be interesting to read how fans in other countries are being affected by this...

Fascinating insight. The only thing I can say is it may well change very quickly in Japan. I live just outside Cheltenham. This time last week the town was packed out with festival visitors. Fast forward a week and it’s very quiet out there tonight.

Yeh but that seemed criminally stupid at the time.

[Jagermesiter1871]

The RFU has ended (not voided) their season for all clubs below the top division (with relegation from the top division already sorted and Newcastle yet to drop a point in the division below that aspect of promotion wouldn’t matter anyway). Could that be a precedent football follows...?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51974684

For me, I’d rather the football season was just ended as it stands if it was between that or being voided though...

Easy to say when we're not tie on points in relegation i.e Bournemouth. Fancy they may be less keen on ending the season as it stands especially when looking at their remaining fixtures compared to other relegation candidates.

[Zip]

Its been interesting reading all your comments and how things are in the UK. I'm in Japan and so far the confirmed numbers have remained fairly stable which is surprising given the number of Chinese tourists that came here up until it all went bang.. However for the 900 or so cases we have here the death rate is about 3.5% which given the quality of the health system here seems high especially when compared to South Korea's low percentage. Maybe its because we have a high percentage of old people and the testing has been lower?

Today they have told us to avoid using public transport in the Osaka area which seems strange given we only have 900+ confirmed cases of which about 200 have been finalised. But seriously if you walk about you would never believe there was a pandemic in full flow... Yesterday I was in Kobe city, people walking about in the city as normal (it is almost impossible to stop Japanese women going shopping), but some shops were closing (it seems voluntary) and today in my area I went to the supermarket and the kids (schools are closed) are all out playing football / volleyball / baseball in the parks whilst the mums are all sat en-masse on mats around the edge having picnic parties..

A few days ago they repeated the aim to hold the Olympics in July? Really? We have tickets but just cannot see how they can start to even consider holding it in July given the numbers globally are climbing the walls at an almost vertical rate and its only 4 months away... Who's going to come (you can't get into Japan as of yesterday from most countries) and how can athletes get ready..

Seriously, if you were not aware of the pandemic and came to Japan the way people are going about their daily lives you would never know we were in the middle of a global pandemic...

I am not sure where else in the world we have Reading fans but would be interesting to read how fans in other countries are being affected by this...

Fascinating insight. The only thing I can say is it may well change very quickly in Japan. I live just outside Cheltenham. This time last week the town was packed out with festival visitors. Fast forward a week and it’s very quiet out there tonight.

Yeh but that seemed criminally stupid at the time.

Oh it was. Reckless.

[windermereROYAL]

I`m going to be a wreck by the time this is over, no sport, no pubs, no holidays. `I`ll be climbing up the walls this time next week.

[Jagermesiter1871]

I`m going to be a wreck by the time this is over, no sport, no pubs, no holidays. `I`ll be climbing up the walls this time next week.

I already am.

[Snowball]

I`m going to be a wreck by the time this is over, no sport, no pubs, no holidays. `I`ll be climbing up the walls this time next week.

I already am.

It is weird. I can imagine mental health issues and suicides adding to the toll.

I spent 24 days in RAF nick when I was about 21 (28, 4 off for good behaviour)
but I got interactions with the MPs, went out on work duties etc. It wasn't as bad
as this, and the situation medium-term looked rosy.

When they let me out to shop I was euphoric for a couple of hours. I showered
and dressed smart-casual rather than my usual sporting crap gear. I wanted to
be "out there", tell myself I was fully alive.

I'm not sure how this oldie/vulnerable lockdown will be phrased, but there is NO way
I could stay indoors for 4-8-12 weeks.

[Millsy]

Chill.

Way more people have had this virus than we think.

We will enter a peak soon and things will slow.

Several treatments are already showing promise and vaccines have been produced.

We will forget about this like we forgot about the other SARS and Ebola etc.

Quit stressing about the damned virus.

The serious problem is how this has affected the country, the world, the economy. The businesses gone under, the people out of work, the economy screwed etc etc. Those effects will last generations.

In a way this is the massive positive. The world cannot trundle along doing the shit it's been doing the way it's been doing it. Where is the decent federal world system required to legislate definitively on wet markets for example? Where is the cohesive effort to find a cure asap, the cohesive effort to nip problems like this in the bud.

This has been a great learning experience for the world and we can choose to go one of two ways: continue as we were and build back up the same shit systems we've had for centuries but with a few tweaks so we are slightly less devastated by it when it inevitably happens next time. Or have a serious think about the organic nature of humanity, and take steps to try and build decent systems that help us work together as one planet, one people.

[Snowball]

SARS lasted 9 months (say 270 Days): 8,089 cases : 774 Deaths TOTAL in 9 months

That is an average of THIRTY cases per day and under 3 deaths per day

Yesterday, in a single day there were 29,438 New Cases outside China
and 1,437 deaths worldwide.

In one day, that is we had 3.5 times as many new cases as ALL SARS cases

Yesterday in a single day we had 501 times the average daily deaths under SARS

Yesterday in a single day we had 981 times the average daily new cases under SARS



501 times and 981 times, and we are on the UPWARD curve

Or look at the UK. It had 4 (FOUR) SARS case and zero deaths
We are past 4 THOUSAND cases and probably on about 200 deaths
and we are still on an exponential growth curve

There is just no realistic comparison between SARS and Covid-19

We are in uncharted territory. The only comparison is the 1918-19 Influenza

[Uke]

Chill.

Way more people have had this virus than we think. YES

We will enter a peak soon and things will slow. YES

Several treatments are already showing promise and vaccines have been produced. NO, testing is only just starting

We will forget about this like we forgot about the other SARS and Ebola etc. NO

Quit stressing about the damned virus. YES, will Carrie be alive at the end of this series of Homeland?

[Jagermesiter1871]

I`m going to be a wreck by the time this is over, no sport, no pubs, no holidays. `I`ll be climbing up the walls this time next week.

I already am.

It is weird. I can imagine mental health issues and suicides adding to the toll.

I spent 24 days in RAF nick when I was about 21 (28, 4 off for good behaviour)
but I got interactions with the MPs, went out on work duties etc. It wasn't as bad
as this, and the situation medium-term looked rosy.

When they let me out to shop I was euphoric for a couple of hours. I showered
and dressed smart-casual rather than my usual sporting crap gear. I wanted to
be "out there", tell myself I was fully alive.

I'm not sure how this oldie/vulnerable lockdown will be phrased, but there is NO way
I could stay indoors for 4-8-12 weeks.

I'm now entering my 3rd week of self isolation having only left the house 3 times to go to shops to get food. I feel like there is a good chance I'm going to be left with some form of PTSD and the fear of the next virus coming.

[Millsy]

Chill.

Way more people have had this virus than we think. YES

We will enter a peak soon and things will slow. YES

Several treatments are already showing promise and vaccines have been produced. NO, testing is only just starting

We will forget about this like we forgot about the other SARS and Ebola etc. NO

Quit stressing about the damned virus. YES, will Carrie be alive at the end of this series of Homeland?

Yes they are being tested (already started) but they have obviously been produced in order to be tested.