Coronavirus outbreak

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Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 31 Mar 2020 15:20

Uke
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Same as France.


yep.

More die in these homes than in hospital ftl.


Was on the phone to my colleague from France - she corroborated this unprompted and before I read this... :shock:


The latest stat was that when the Govt was saying 171 deaths they'd omitted 40

23.4% is a LITTLE bit out to put it mildly.

Not saying this under-counting is still the same but if it is today's 1801 total might well be 2,222

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Uke
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Uke » 31 Mar 2020 15:24

Snowball
Uke
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yep.

More die in these homes than in hospital ftl.


Was on the phone to my colleague from France - she corroborated this unprompted and before I read this... :shock:


The latest stat was that when the Govt was saying 171 deaths they'd omitted 40

23.4% is a LITTLE bit out to put it mildly.

Not saying this under-counting is still the same but if it is today's 1801 total might well be 2,222


Doesn't really matter how they are counted tbf, the relative change in the numbers that you are counting is probably more important
Last edited by Uke on 31 Mar 2020 15:25, edited 1 time in total.

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 31 Mar 2020 15:25

Weakness?

My first walk since being ill. Exactly five miles.
I usually do that in 1:23-1:26

Today 1Hr 45! about 4 minutes a mile slower. That's terrible!

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Jagermesiter1871
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 31 Mar 2020 17:18

Snowball Weakness?

My first walk since being ill. Exactly five miles.
I usually do that in 1:23-1:26

Today 1Hr 45! about 4 minutes a mile slower. That's terrible!


Quit hogging all the exercise hours.

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 31 Mar 2020 18:35

Jagermesiter1871
Snowball Weakness?

My first walk since being ill. Exactly five miles.
I usually do that in 1:23-1:26

Today 1Hr 45! about 4 minutes a mile slower. That's terrible!


Quit hogging all the exercise hours.



Had 23 days of no exercise in the bank!


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 31 Mar 2020 18:43

World increase today is already up to 54,915 which suggests we could have a 70K day

windermereROYAL
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by windermereROYAL » 31 Mar 2020 19:49

They`re talking blackouts now, nice to see we will have them when other worse hit counties have managed ok.

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 31 Mar 2020 20:20

windermereROYAL They`re talking blackouts now, nice to see we will have them when other worse hit counties have managed ok.


I know someone high up in a very in an energy company. One third of that company was put on indefinite furlough today.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 31 Mar 2020 20:25

windermereROYAL They`re talking blackouts now, nice to see we will have them when other worse hit counties have managed ok.


Whats the reasoning?

Is there much of a net difference in energy demand? Shops and retail obviously closed but people are home all day watching TV, heating the house and cooking chicken goujons.


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 31 Mar 2020 20:28

NEW CASES Last 6 days

Final - - at 20:00

63,408
63,489
68,154
57,773
61,563
73,028
*


Doesn't look like the numbers are falling yet

Went to 74,017 at ten past midnight
Last edited by Snowball on 01 Apr 2020 00:19, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 01 Apr 2020 00:00

Snowball NEW CASES Last 5 days

63,408
63,489
68,154
57,773
61,563


More (some) evidence of flattening, but 2-3 weeks of 50,000+ before an actual decline would be about a million cases, and ATM the deaths/got better ratio has risen to 18.4%, meaning there are a total of 142,813 deaths in the pipe based on cumulative cases (excluding new cases and presuming no health-service collapses). The extra million cases would mean a further 184,000 deaths worldwide, totalling 326,813 Dead



BTW the modelling predicted 770-790,000 at midnight tonight (30th) and he number was 781,979 pretty much right in the middle.


UPDATE:

Modelling predicted 845,000-855,000 at midnight 31st March. Actual Number 855,007

Modelling predicted 920,000-935,000 at midnight 1st April. Actual Number 935,578

Model predicts we go through the million mark tomorrow, April 2nd

1,003,578 to 1,018,578

Last edited by Snowball on 02 Apr 2020 00:17, edited 2 times in total.

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Jagermesiter1871
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 01 Apr 2020 12:15

Snowball
Snowball NEW CASES Last 5 days

63,408
63,489
68,154
57,773
61,563


More (some) evidence of flattening, but 2-3 weeks of 50,000+ before an actual decline would be about a million cases, and ATM the deaths/got better ratio has risen to 18.4%, meaning there are a total of 142,813 deaths in the pipe based on cumulative cases (excluding new cases and presuming no health-service collapses). The extra million cases would mean a further 184,000 deaths worldwide, totalling 326,813 Dead



BTW the modelling predicted 770-790,000 at midnight tonight (30th) and he number was 781,979 pretty much right in the middle.


UPDATE: Modelling predicted 845,000-855,000 at midnight 31st March. Actual Number 855,007


When does this model predict things getting better?

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 01 Apr 2020 16:31

Jagermesiter1871
Snowball
Snowball NEW CASES Last 5 days

63,408
63,489
68,154
57,773
61,563


More (some) evidence of flattening, but 2-3 weeks of 50,000+ before an actual decline would be about a million cases, and ATM the deaths/got better ratio has risen to 18.4%, meaning there are a total of 142,813 deaths in the pipe based on cumulative cases (excluding new cases and presuming no health-service collapses). The extra million cases would mean a further 184,000 deaths worldwide, totalling 326,813 Dead



BTW the modelling predicted 770-790,000 at midnight tonight (30th) and he number was 781,979 pretty much right in the middle.


UPDATE: Modelling predicted 845,000-855,000 at midnight 31st March. Actual Number 855,007


When does this model predict things getting better?


NO IDEA

Simple model, really. Just get a percentage from Recovered Cases (= Discharged + Dead). Today (so far) that has reached 19.27%.

If you removed the German figures (which I HAVEN'T done) (as they have been testing a much younger age demographic) that would be over 20% I should think. Yep 20.42

I think China's figures are suss. If you exclude those figures the number is a horrendous 27.29%

If you exclude BOTH countries the number is a staggering 30.14%

885,171 - 185,208 - 44,208 - 19.27% World
810,663 - 169,108 - 43,387 - 20.42% Excl Germany
803,617 - 108,970 - 40,896 - 27.29% Excl China
729,109 - 092,870 - 40,075 - 30.14% Excl China & Germany

You take the cumulative CASE total for 14 days ago, multiply by 19.27% and get an approximation of today's death total.

So it predicts a cumulative total deaths of 46,670 for today, midnight.

All I was looking at was the relationship between Cases, Discharged and Deaths. The 19.27% reflects, in general, more seriously ill patients except the Chinese figures seem way different to the rest of the world, and the Germans are testing a lot of much younger people in the community. As the world totals increase the errors caused by China/Germany decrease in their effect and the rate increases steadily. The 19.27% for example. It was 15.69% on March 25th and just creeps up and up.

As for "When will it get better?" the answer is"not for a while". First we have to plateau. That "plateau" may occur in 7/14/21 days time, who knows exactly? - but the deaths lag by somewhere round 14 days (and ATM some deaths are occurring after longer than that).

That means the death-numbers should get worse and worse for a minimum of another 3 weeks. Then the question is, "How long will we be at the plateau?" then, when will the infection rate be under, how much under 1, how much will r fall?"

Say (using UK as an example) our death rate goes from 553 (Yesterday's dead) to (at least) 1,000 a day. Say (as an example) we hit 1,000 in a week's time, then have 14 days at this 1,000 (or creeping up to 1,200)... now say the infection rate drops to 0.9.

Sounds good but by then our numbers infected (about 30,000 ATM) will have been rising for a minimum of a week at 3,000+ a day so we'd be on 50,000 confirmed cases. If, in fact it's 14 days of this we'd be on 70,000, 21 days and we are nearer 100,000.

As r falls below 1.0 that's still a very large number of people infected and still being infected. The r was 2.5 to 3 on the way up so the tail of the curve could easily be 3 times as long as the up side. If the decline is fairly linear that would mean an average of 1.5 times as long as the time taken to reach the peak rate/plateau, say the average of the last ten days before the decline began.

If it takes six weeks to reach the peak, it will probably take another 18 weeks to reduce to under 100 new cases a day. The first confirmed UK transmission was Feb 28th. Today is 33 days later and we are not at the peak. If we peak in 7 more days, I think we will have significant UK deaths for a total 40 (climbing fast) + 120 days (fading slower) (at best!)

That is July-28th, but this is only if we keep the restrictions up and batter r until it goes under 1

Even if the UK manages something like this, and France, Italy etc also do, the huge worry is India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Africa etc. We may see Europe "getting better" while world totals will keep rising.

All the above is presuming there are no extra complications, "Western" Health systems failing, civil unrest, problems with social structures, power, water, stuff we haven't even though of yet. And we need to hope that any mutations to the virus weaken it. The 1918 flu morphed into a far more horrible thing for the second peak.

BTW I have 920-935K total casesfor today, and going through the million tomorrow, April 2nd.


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 01 Apr 2020 16:44

There's is a simple rule of thumb estimate for deaths

This is cruder than the one I use, but...

Deaths are approximately 20% of the case-total fourteen days previous

Unfortunately that "20%" is slowly increasing

But for a ball park estimate think 20-21%

Mar-28 Actual Deaths = 19.76% of total cases 14 days before
Mar-29 Actual Deaths = 20.84% of total cases 14 days before
Mar-30 Actual Deaths = 20.73% of total cases 14 days before
Mar-31 Actual Deaths = 21.39% of total cases 14 days before

14 Days ago, cumulative deaths were 214,894.

Multiply that by the rate reached yesterday (21.39%) and you get 45,966 Deaths at midnight tonight

Apr-01 Predicted Deaths = 45,966

Actual 46,854
Last edited by Snowball on 02 Apr 2020 00:16, edited 4 times in total.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Hound » 01 Apr 2020 18:14

As long as this is keeping you busy and getting you through the day Snowball

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Franchise FC » 01 Apr 2020 19:09

Snowball There's is a simple rule of thumb estimate for deaths

This is cruder than the one I use, but...

Deaths are approximately 20% of the case-total fourteen days previous

Unfortunately that "20%" is slowly increasing

But for a ball park estimate think 20-21%

Mar-28 Actual Deaths = 19.76% of total cases 14 days before
Mar-29 Actual Deaths = 20.84% of total cases 14 days before
Mar-30 Actual Deaths = 20.73% of total cases 14 days before
Mar-31 Actual Deaths = 21.39% of total cases 14 days before

14 Days ago, cumulative deaths were 214,894.

Multiply that by the rate reached yesterday (21.39%) and you get 45,966 Deaths at midnight tonight

Apr-01 Predicted Deaths = 45,966

Currently, with 5 Hours to go we are on 45,540 and likely to go over 46,000

Please tell me that this is a typo

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 01 Apr 2020 19:44

Franchise FC
Snowball There's is a simple rule of thumb estimate for deaths

This is cruder than the one I use, but...

Deaths are approximately 20% of the case-total fourteen days previous

Unfortunately that "20%" is slowly increasing

But for a ball park estimate think 20-21%

Mar-28 Actual Deaths = 19.76% of total cases 14 days before
Mar-29 Actual Deaths = 20.84% of total cases 14 days before
Mar-30 Actual Deaths = 20.73% of total cases 14 days before
Mar-31 Actual Deaths = 21.39% of total cases 14 days before

14 Days ago, cumulative deaths were 214,894.

Multiply that by the rate reached yesterday (21.39%) and you get 45,966 Deaths at midnight tonight

Apr-01 Predicted Deaths = 45,966

Currently, with 5 Hours to go we are on 45,540 and likely to go over 46,000

Please tell me that this is a typo



14 Days ago, cumulative CASES were 214,894.

The calculations to get to today's deaths were correct

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by andrew1957 » 01 Apr 2020 19:46

I have to say that I continue to think that the fear over this COVID-19 issue is overdone.

I have just checked the Gov flu report which details flu deaths for the four years from 2014/15 through to 2017/18. An average of 21,155 died in the UK during these four years from flu including sadly a number of infants and young children, who had no pre existing health issues, but the vast majority of these deaths were for the over 65's - pretty much identical to COVID. Across the world between 300,000 and 500,000 die of flu each year but we don't shut down the global economy.

Some estimates suggest that there will only be around 20,000 UK deaths from COVID-19 which is less than in an average flu season. Of course I accept there is a small risk that it could mutate into something worse.

But overall - am I missing something?

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 01 Apr 2020 19:49

NEW CASES Last 7 days


63,408
63,489
68,154
57,773
61,563
73,028
78,571. New highest daily total cases...
Last edited by Snowball on 02 Apr 2020 00:00, edited 5 times in total.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 01 Apr 2020 20:10

andrew1957 I have to say that I continue to think that the fear over this COVID-19 issue is overdone.

I have just checked the Gov flu report which details flu deaths for the four years from 2014/15 through to 2017/18. An average of 21,155 died in the UK during these four years from flu including sadly a number of infants and young children, who had no pre existing health issues, but the vast majority of these deaths were for the over 65's - pretty much identical to COVID. Across the world between 300,000 and 500,000 die of flu each year but we don't shut down the global economy.

Some estimates suggest that there will only be around 20,000 UK deaths from COVID-19 which is less than in an average flu season. Of course I accept there is a small risk that it could mutate into something worse.

But overall - am I missing something?



Yes, you're missing something. We have a VERY tough lockdown and even so the numbers will finish very high. The lockdown in China (according to expert estimates) prevented (as of two weeks ago) 7 MILLION Cases. Without the lockdown that 7 Million would now be 50-100 Million.

Without the lockdown in the UK we would already be closing in on 10,000 deaths.

Not sure what the latest estimates are but all the experts seem to be saying:

1. This is NOT just flu, not just like flu
2. This virus is more transmittable, has a higher r (infection rate)
3. This virus is more deadly

Flu has a usual kill-rate of one tenth of a per-cent. This virus looks like being somewhere between 0.9% and 5%, probably 1-2%

If you have a virus that might be 20 times as deadly AND more transmittable you would be talking (without these Draconian measures) of many, many millions of dead, tens of millions.

This has a long way to go. So far Africa, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are lightly hit, South America is "behind" Italy.

Italy is currently on 217.9 deaths per million. It will finish on 500 per million or worse. Spain, "behind" Italy is on 194 per million, France (also behind) is on 62 per Million. Here are a few, and understand that many of these will ROCKET. The projection for the UK is that we WILL reach the same scale as Italy. (PS Italy has 4.1 Doctors per 1,000 population, the UK has 2.8 )

766 San Marino
218 Italy
194 Spain
181 Andorra
071 Belgium
068 Holland
062 France
053 Switzerland
046 Luxembourg
035 UK

At 500 deaths per million * 67 Million (the UK population) is 33,500 deaths in the UK.

The world population is 7,800 Million (7.8 Billion). That equates to a worldwide death toll of 3.9 MILLION dead

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