Do we dare to dream?

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royalp-we
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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by royalp-we » 09 Mar 2020 13:43

URZZZZ It’s unlikely but three wins in the next three and teams will start talking about us


Can you honestly see us winning our next 3 games :?:
Last edited by royalp-we on 09 Mar 2020 13:47, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by Hendo » 09 Mar 2020 13:45

royalp-we
URZZZZ It’s unlikely but three wins in the next three and teams will start talking about us


Can you honestly see us winning our next 3 games :?:


Stoke, Derby and Brentford? Certainly not out of the realms of possibility - even if we were to get 6 or 7 points from those 3, people might start considering us as outsiders for a late push.

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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by URZZZZ » 09 Mar 2020 13:46

royalp-we
URZZZZ It’s unlikely but three wins in the next three and teams will start talking about us


Can you honestly see us winning our next 3 games :?:


Not really

But then could I see us getting 12 points from 12 over the festive period? Absolutely not

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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by Stranded » 09 Mar 2020 14:00

Not a chance - people are comfortable that we are not going down as Charlton amongst others will need to pick up 9 points in 9 games to draw level but think we have a chance to pick up 8 points on Preston over the same period? And even if we do, there are 7 other teams who we would need to significantly outpoint over the last 9.

In short, the same reasoning that means we won't go down apply to why we have no chance of making the play-offs. Even if we win 8 out of 9 then that means we are relying on none of those teams above us getting to 73 points.

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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by Hendo » 09 Mar 2020 14:03

Currently 50/1 to finish top 6 and 150/1 to be promoted with B365 - almost worth a couple of quid.

FTR, we are 250/1 to be relegated.


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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by Pepe the Horseman » 09 Mar 2020 14:18

Hendo Currently 50/1 to finish top 6 and 150/1 to be promoted with B365 - almost worth a couple of quid.

FTR, we are 250/1 to be relegated.

150/1 for top 6 with BetFred.

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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by NewCorkSeth » 09 Mar 2020 14:19

URZZZZ
royalp-we
URZZZZ It’s unlikely but three wins in the next three and teams will start talking about us


Can you honestly see us winning our next 3 games :?:


Not really

But then could I see us getting 12 points from 12 over the festive period? Absolutely not

That's about right. Doesnt look likely but we've done it before.

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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by URZZZZ » 09 Mar 2020 14:33

Stranded Not a chance - people are comfortable that we are not going down as Charlton amongst others will need to pick up 9 points in 9 games to draw level but think we have a chance to pick up 8 points on Preston over the same period? And even if we do, there are 7 other teams who we would need to significantly outpoint over the last 9.

In short, the same reasoning that means we won't go down apply to why we have no chance of making the play-offs. Even if we win 8 out of 9 then that means we are relying on none of those teams above us getting to 73 points.


Stranger things have happened though. I know it’s a different scenario because there were only 2 teams in the race but I recall one year Preston and Cardiff were 9 points apart with 3 games to go and the team who were 9 behind ended up getting 6th spot

I think if you factor in Brentford and Forest’s recent form too (other than Brentford’s 5-0 drubbing of course) you could look at it from another viewpoint that there are still three playoff places to grab

Momentum is a strange thing in football and with us having just beaten Birmingham and Barnsley and after pushing Sheffield all the way to ET, morale is most probably high at the moment. I certainly wouldn’t dismiss it as “no chance” at this moment in time

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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by Hendo » 09 Mar 2020 14:37

Pepe the Horseman
Hendo Currently 50/1 to finish top 6 and 150/1 to be promoted with B365 - almost worth a couple of quid.

FTR, we are 250/1 to be relegated.

150/1 for top 6 with BetFred.




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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by Stranded » 09 Mar 2020 15:29

URZZZZ
Stranded Not a chance - people are comfortable that we are not going down as Charlton amongst others will need to pick up 9 points in 9 games to draw level but think we have a chance to pick up 8 points on Preston over the same period? And even if we do, there are 7 other teams who we would need to significantly outpoint over the last 9.

In short, the same reasoning that means we won't go down apply to why we have no chance of making the play-offs. Even if we win 8 out of 9 then that means we are relying on none of those teams above us getting to 73 points.


Stranger things have happened though. I know it’s a different scenario because there were only 2 teams in the race but I recall one year Preston and Cardiff were 9 points apart with 3 games to go and the team who were 9 behind ended up getting 6th spot

I think if you factor in Brentford and Forest’s recent form too (other than Brentford’s 5-0 drubbing of course) you could look at it from another viewpoint that there are still three playoff places to grab

Momentum is a strange thing in football and with us having just beaten Birmingham and Barnsley and after pushing Sheffield all the way to ET, morale is most probably high at the moment. I certainly wouldn’t dismiss it as “no chance” at this moment in time


Ok. I'll rephrase. We have as much chance of making the top 6 as we do falling into the bottom 3.

If the following happens this weekend, I may reassess my view:

We beat Stoke
Preston lose/draw at Luton
Millwall & Derby draw
Blackburn & Bristol draw
Cardiff lose to Leeds

As would put us 5 or 6 points adrift.
Last edited by Stranded on 09 Mar 2020 15:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by Forbury Lion » 09 Mar 2020 15:41

Snowball Reading are 300-1 to be relegated
Worth an £1 insurance policy bet... £300 will help me drown my sorrows.

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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by Franchise FC » 09 Mar 2020 15:49

Stranded Not a chance - people are comfortable that we are not going down as Charlton amongst others will need to pick up 9 points in 9 games to draw level but think we have a chance to pick up 8 points on Preston over the same period? And even if we do, there are 7 other teams who we would need to significantly outpoint over the last 9.

In short, the same reasoning that means we won't go down apply to why we have no chance of making the play-offs. Even if we win 8 out of 9 then that means we are relying on none of those teams above us getting to 73 points.

That's not quite true though, is it ?
Teams are at the bottom for a reason - they're not winning, so catching up 9 points is going to be difficult.
We, however, have at least some away games left, so as long as we can avoid defeat at home, we just might be able to catch a few.

It's a bit like teams having games in hand at the bottom. In my view they are defeats in hand, so nowhere near as crucial as games in hand near the top, where teams, in general, are winning more than they lose.

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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by Snowball » 09 Mar 2020 16:08

Forbury Lion
Snowball Reading are 300-1 to be relegated
Worth an £1 insurance policy bet... £300 will help me drown my sorrows.


£10 bet would pay for four week holiday in Italy


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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by Snowball » 09 Mar 2020 16:11

URZZZZ
Stranger things have happened though. I know it’s a different scenario because there were only 2 teams in the race but I recall one year Preston and Cardiff were 9 points apart with 3 games to go and the team who were 9 behind ended up getting 6th spot


Momentum is a strange thing in football


I remember this. Last game of the season Cardiff lost 6-0 wasn’t it? Had they lost 5-0 or 6-1 they would have made the POs

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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by WestYorksRoyal » 09 Mar 2020 16:19

Snowball
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Snowball Reading are 300-1 to be relegated
Worth an £1 insurance policy bet... £300 will help me drown my sorrows.


£10 bet would pay for four week holiday in Italy

So would £1 bet at the moment

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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by Snowball » 09 Mar 2020 16:21

WestYorksRoyal
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Forbury Lion Worth an £1 insurance policy bet... £300 will help me drown my sorrows.


£10 bet would pay for four week holiday in Italy

So would £1 bet at the moment



I’m in isolation ATM, but I’d book a holiday now if I could. Fantastic prices!

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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by Mid Sussex Royal » 09 Mar 2020 16:45

Snowball
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OldBiscuit We’re 8 points off the play offs with nine games left. Do we dare to dream?


Nope. End of.


Never say never. WNG, WNG and it becomes a 16-1 shot. Win 3 on the trot and we’d be 4/5 points off with 6 to play but with HUGE momentum

You need 70 to half any chance. That takes seven wins and a draw out of 9

Just to have a CHANCE

NAH


It is sometimes less than 70 - didn't Blackpool actually win the play-offs once ending the season with 67 or something? And it is one of those seasons where the safety line at the bottom will be higher than its a been for a while so the final table will likely be more bunched up.

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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by Stranded » 09 Mar 2020 18:03

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Nope. End of.


Never say never. WNG, WNG and it becomes a 16-1 shot. Win 3 on the trot and we’d be 4/5 points off with 6 to play but with HUGE momentum

You need 70 to half any chance. That takes seven wins and a draw out of 9

Just to have a CHANCE

NAH


It is sometimes less than 70 - didn't Blackpool actually win the play-offs once ending the season with 67 or something? And it is one of those seasons where the safety line at the bottom will be higher than its a been for a while so the final table will likely be more bunched up.


No. Blackpool got in with 70. Lowest ever is Leicester on 68, Peterborough went down on 54 that year.

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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by Snowball » 09 Mar 2020 18:08

Stranded
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Never say never. WNG, WNG and it becomes a 16-1 shot. Win 3 on the trot and we’d be 4/5 points off with 6 to play but with HUGE momentum

You need 70 to half any chance. That takes seven wins and a draw out of 9

Just to have a CHANCE

NAH


It is sometimes less than 70 - didn't Blackpool actually win the play-offs once ending the season with 67 or something? And it is one of those seasons where the safety line at the bottom will be higher than its a been for a while so the final table will likely be more bunched up.


No. Blackpool got in with 70. Lowest ever is Leicester on 68, Peterborough went down on 54 that year.


You have to presume some or all the sides currently above us will get 1.5 ppg+ = 14 points so we have to get AT LEAST 22 points, even to be in with half a shout (7 wins and a draw).

Probably we need 8 winds (24) and we'd be on 72.

It's quite possible 72 won't make top six.

Still, we could always win 9 games from 9...


Cough

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Re: Do we dare to dream?

by Stranded » 09 Mar 2020 18:09

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Stranded Not a chance - people are comfortable that we are not going down as Charlton amongst others will need to pick up 9 points in 9 games to draw level but think we have a chance to pick up 8 points on Preston over the same period? And even if we do, there are 7 other teams who we would need to significantly outpoint over the last 9.

In short, the same reasoning that means we won't go down apply to why we have no chance of making the play-offs. Even if we win 8 out of 9 then that means we are relying on none of those teams above us getting to 73 points.

That's not quite true though, is it ?
Teams are at the bottom for a reason - they're not winning, so catching up 9 points is going to be difficult.
We, however, have at least some away games left, so as long as we can avoid defeat at home, we just might be able to catch a few.

It's a bit like teams having games in hand at the bottom. In my view they are defeats in hand, so nowhere near as crucial as games in hand near the top, where teams, in general, are winning more than they lose.


Flawed logic I'm afraid. Teams ahead of us have shown they can accumulate points better than us to date, we are less good at winning than they are.

So yes, we are more likely to go on a run than Charlton but Preston (and others) are less likely to collectively go on a bad enough run to make that mean anything.

If we go at 2 points per game from here, we only get 66. Probably 9th or 10th, which would be a great end to the season.

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