The next 5 games - a key point in our season

windermereROYAL
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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by windermereROYAL » 01 Jul 2020 10:01

SCIAG The important thing is finishing above the team who came 22nd. So Dellor botched the stats, but there was a year where it took 55 points to avoid relegation.


Yes that was Barnsley, i was mistaken.

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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by Snowflake Royal » 01 Jul 2020 10:37

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windermereROYAL Well did anyone here that gimp Dellor going on about Barnsley getting relegated on 55 points last night? I knew he was wrong, he also said the average points in the last 10 years finishing third bottom was 48.8 points, nonsense again, so I thought I would trawl back over the championship seasons way back from when we got promoted way back in the early noughties to check out the trends.

02/03 Sheffield Wednesday 46.
03/04 Walsall 51.
04/05 Gillingham 50
05/06 Crewe 42
06/07 Southend 42
07/08 Leicester 52
08/09 Norwich 42
09/10 Sheffield Wednesday 47
10/11 Preston 42
11/12 Portsmouth 40
12/13 Peterborough 54
13/14 Doncaster 44
14/15 Millwall 41
15/16 Charlton 40
16/17 Blackburn 51
17/18 Barnsley 41
18/19 Rotherham 40.
So a grand total of 5/17 50+ points totals, teams finishing third bottom average exactly 45 points.

And, further to that, over just the last 10 seasons (which is what he said) the average points is 44. I reckon he must have gotten confused with average points of the teams who came 21st.

Yeah I thought he'd done that at the time.

There's two ways of looking at relegation and I think he did the stupid way.

There's what's the points at 21st, because a worse GD will see you relegated on that, and there's what did the relegated team actually get.

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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by Snowball » 01 Jul 2020 11:21

On last-six games form

10 Points Luton (undefeated)
10 Points Barnsley

07 Points Reading
07 Points Charlton
07 Points Middlesbro

06 Points Stoke
06 Points Huddersfield
05 Points Birmingham (Five Draws)

01 Points Hull

Form Since Return

P3 07 Barnsley
P3 07 Charlton
P3 06 Middlesbro
P3 05 Luton
P3 02 Birmingham
P3 01 Stoke
P3 01 Hull
P3 01 Reading
P3 00 Huddersfield

If (and it's a massive IF, of course) these teams continued their post-return form the final table would look hugely different.

60 Charlton
56 Middlesboro
55 Barnsley
51 Reading
50 Luton
45 Stoke
44 Hull
42 Huddersfield

NOTE, I am NOT saying any of the above will occur, but I DO think Barnsley will get out of trouble, that Huddersfield and Hull will go down, that Boro and Charlton will be comfortable.

On current (post-return) form (I know it's only been three games)
but the signs are there, Boro seeming "turned round", Charlton solid,
Luton and Barnsley making a real go over the Great Escape...

Stoke are wobbling badly, and will probably be the third-bottom club
but we seem to be sleep-walking, flirting with disaster.

A defeat at Luton, and some will be twitching. Lose the next one, and...


Personally I think we'll find the one win needed, and a few more points,
but if we only scrape home, after a much more positive season, (to March)
that will be a huge disappointment.

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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by Royal_jimmy » 01 Jul 2020 11:52

Sutekh
Zip God knows what what we do upfront. None of Puscas, Baldock or Meite look like scoring.


Why can’t Reading ever develop a decent striker from the Academy? It’s the one area the club have been very poor at ever since the Academy started. Only Tyson and Henderson have really come through and that was almost 20 years ago, since then no-one if any real note has appeared. Loader looked like he might be the part in the Academy but seemed to spend any time in the first team playing in the same position as the likes of Swift, Ejaria, Olise etc. :roll:

Trying to think of who there has been since Tyson and Henderson and all I could think of was Simon Cox who did reasonably ok in the Championship but still never really got every one convinced he was the answer.


Simon Church?

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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by Royal_jimmy » 01 Jul 2020 11:56

windermereROYAL
SCIAG The important thing is finishing above the team who came 22nd. So Dellor botched the stats, but there was a year where it took 55 points to avoid relegation.


Yes that was Barnsley, i was mistaken.


That year that Peterborough were relegated with 54 points was weird. Leicester got into the playoffs with 68 points that season. So Peterborough were only a few wins from challenging for the playoffs yet went down!


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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by Sutekh » 01 Jul 2020 19:01

Championship 2012/2013

1 Cardiff City 46 25 12 9 72 45 +27 87
2 Hull City 46 24 7 15 61 52 +9 79
========================================
3 Watford 46 23 8 15 85 58 +27 77
4 Brighton & Hove Albion 46 19 18 9 69 43 +26 75
5 Crystal Palace 46 19 15 12 73 62 +11 72
6 Leicester City 46 19 11 16 71 48 +23 68
———————————————————————
7 Bolton Wanderers 46 18 14 14 69 61 +8 68
8 Nottingham Forest 46 17 16 13 63 59 +4 67
9 Charlton Athletic 46 17 14 15 65 59 +6 65
10 Derby County 46 16 13 17 65 62 +3 61
11 Burnley 46 16 13 17 62 60 +2 61
12 Birmingham City 46 15 16 15 63 69 −6 61
13 Leeds United 46 17 10 19 57 66 −9 61
14 Ipswich Town 46 16 12 18 48 61 −13 60
15 Blackpool 46 14 17 15 62 63 −1 59
16 Middlesbrough 46 18 5 23 61 70 −9 59
17 Blackburn Rovers 46 14 16 16 55 62 −7 58
18 Sheffield W 46 16 10 20 53 61 −8 58
19 Huddersfield 46 15 13 18 53 73 −20 58
20 Millwall 46 15 11 20 51 62 −11 56
21 Barnsley 46 14 13 19 56 70 −14 55
========================================
22 Peterborough 46 15 9 22 66 75 −9 54
23 Wolves 46 14 9 23 55 69 −14 51
24 Bristol City 46 11 8 27 59 84 −25 41

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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by Stranded » 01 Jul 2020 19:11

Wigan's points deduction changes the whole picture.

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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by SouthDownsRoyal » 01 Jul 2020 20:51

Bit of a pain that Huddersfield won today.

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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by windermereROYAL » 01 Jul 2020 21:55

With the Wigan situation we start on needing 8 points (if they win all their games that's what we need to finish above them) then it decreases by a point for every one we get or they drop. so relegation is a very unlikely scenario IMO.


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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by Westwood52 » 02 Jul 2020 10:14

We desperately need a reaction from the players against Luton.What happens if they put in another insipid performance like Tuesday night ?We started the season with a reasonable level of investment,and now it has come to this.I still think we can stay up without winning another game;surely they are capable of getting a couple of draws along the way.Trouble is,the new season will start shortly,and we don’t want to be going into,completely devoid of form.

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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by Royal_jimmy » 02 Jul 2020 11:10

Sutekh Championship 2012/2013

1 Cardiff City 46 25 12 9 72 45 +27 87
2 Hull City 46 24 7 15 61 52 +9 79
========================================
3 Watford 46 23 8 15 85 58 +27 77
4 Brighton & Hove Albion 46 19 18 9 69 43 +26 75
5 Crystal Palace 46 19 15 12 73 62 +11 72
6 Leicester City 46 19 11 16 71 48 +23 68
———————————————————————
7 Bolton Wanderers 46 18 14 14 69 61 +8 68
8 Nottingham Forest 46 17 16 13 63 59 +4 67
9 Charlton Athletic 46 17 14 15 65 59 +6 65
10 Derby County 46 16 13 17 65 62 +3 61
11 Burnley 46 16 13 17 62 60 +2 61
12 Birmingham City 46 15 16 15 63 69 −6 61
13 Leeds United 46 17 10 19 57 66 −9 61
14 Ipswich Town 46 16 12 18 48 61 −13 60
15 Blackpool 46 14 17 15 62 63 −1 59
16 Middlesbrough 46 18 5 23 61 70 −9 59
17 Blackburn Rovers 46 14 16 16 55 62 −7 58
18 Sheffield W 46 16 10 20 53 61 −8 58
19 Huddersfield 46 15 13 18 53 73 −20 58
20 Millwall 46 15 11 20 51 62 −11 56
21 Barnsley 46 14 13 19 56 70 −14 55
========================================
22 Peterborough 46 15 9 22 66 75 −9 54
23 Wolves 46 14 9 23 55 69 −14 51
24 Bristol City 46 11 8 27 59 84 −25 41


So weird that season. A real anyone can beat anyone. Hull promoted even though they lost 15 games!

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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by ROKERITE » 02 Jul 2020 11:46

Snowball On last-six games form

10 Points Luton (undefeated)
10 Points Barnsley

07 Points Reading
07 Points Charlton
07 Points Middlesbro

06 Points Stoke
06 Points Huddersfield
05 Points Birmingham (Five Draws)

01 Points Hull

Form Since Return

P3 07 Barnsley
P3 07 Charlton
P3 06 Middlesbro
P3 05 Luton
P3 02 Birmingham
P3 01 Stoke
P3 01 Hull
P3 01 Reading
P3 00 Huddersfield

If (and it's a massive IF, of course) these teams continued their post-return form the final table would look hugely different.

60 Charlton
56 Middlesboro
55 Barnsley
51 Reading
50 Luton
45 Stoke
44 Hull
42 Huddersfield

NOTE, I am NOT saying any of the above will occur, but I DO think Barnsley will get out of trouble, that Huddersfield and Hull will go down, that Boro and Charlton will be comfortable.

On current (post-return) form (I know it's only been three games)
but the signs are there, Boro seeming "turned round", Charlton solid,
Luton and Barnsley making a real go over the Great Escape...

Stoke are wobbling badly, and will probably be the third-bottom club
but we seem to be sleep-walking, flirting with disaster.

A defeat at Luton, and some will be twitching. Lose the next one, and...


Personally I think we'll find the one win needed, and a few more points,
but if we only scrape home, after a much more positive season, (to March)
that will be a huge disappointment.


There's a very good chance 'Boro will win at Hull tonight but at the moment they've played two and taken three points since the return. Huddersfield had a good win last night and have three points from three since the return.

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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by Simmops » 02 Jul 2020 12:03

From Despair To Where?
Zip The time has come to drop Moore. He really is in poor form at the moment. Give Tom McIntyre a chance.
Bring in Pele and rest Olise.
God knows what what we do upfront. None of Puscas, Baldock or Meite look like scoring.


Pele did himself no favours by letting his fitness drop significantly through lockdown. We do miss his physical presence in midfield though.


I do not think that the lockdown did him much difference to be fair, maybe it was the last 30 odd years he was retired that did not help.


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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by Sanguine » 02 Jul 2020 15:05

So in essence the only thing Dellor got wrong was that Barnsley weren't relegated with 55 points, they came 21st, and Peterborough were relegated with 54?

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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by Snowflake Royal » 02 Jul 2020 17:23

Sanguine So in essence the only thing Dellor got wrong was that Barnsley weren't relegated with 55 points, they came 21st, and Peterborough were relegated with 54?

And the average relegation points wasn't it.

He did at least get the players names right mostly this time.

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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by windermereROYAL » 02 Jul 2020 19:26

With the last relegation spot sitting on 43 points with 6 to play I would say teams need more than 50 to stay up this season.

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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by Mid Sussex Royal » 02 Jul 2020 19:32

windermereROYAL With the last relegation spot sitting on 43 points with 6 to play I would say teams need more than 50 to stay up this season.


Its actually 41 with Wigan, so with goal diff we are 9 clear with 6 to play

We'd probably need to lose 5 out of 6 to go down, we last had a run like that under Terry the taxi

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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by windermereROYAL » 02 Jul 2020 19:35

Mid Sussex Royal
windermereROYAL With the last relegation spot sitting on 43 points with 6 to play I would say teams need more than 50 to stay up this season.


Its actually 41 with Wigan, so with goal diff we are 9 clear with 6 to play

We'd probably need to lose 5 out of 6 to go down, we last had a run like that under Terry the taxi


8 points, saw on telly today that Wigan are going to appeal their points deduction.

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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by Mid Sussex Royal » 02 Jul 2020 19:50

windermereROYAL
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windermereROYAL With the last relegation spot sitting on 43 points with 6 to play I would say teams need more than 50 to stay up this season.


Its actually 41 with Wigan, so with goal diff we are 9 clear with 6 to play

We'd probably need to lose 5 out of 6 to go down, we last had a run like that under Terry the taxi


8 points, saw on telly today that Wigan are going to appeal their points deduction.


No grounds for appealing administration, has a club ever won or even tried to appeal? Not seen that on any media site they are appealing

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Re: The next 5 games - a key point in our season

by SouthDownsRoyal » 02 Jul 2020 22:21

windermereROYAL With the last relegation spot sitting on 43 points with 6 to play I would say teams need more than 50 to stay up this season.


100pc. God knows how it will end but I’d suspect 53+ish to stay up, of course that is based on the teams below keeping up their good recent form, which they may not.

Also I have no idea who has to play who, if those below us have games against each other then clearly that means points needed may be lower.

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