by Brain Traysers »
20 Feb 2021 18:30
Snowflake Royal Brain Traysers Snowflake Royal Absolutely mindless to say data on all headers and shots outside the box can determine that every header and shot from outside the box is a poor chance.
Like astoundingly stupid.
So which of those three chances was above average opportunity from that position? Rinomhota striking a ball first time from the "wrong" side (it's easier to strike coming across the body). McIntyre heading it under extreme pressure from every direction (possibly on the backfoot too, or that might have been Joãos)? Ejaria probably had the cleanest opportunity, but is pushing >25y away.
It's incredibly generous to think either of those were good chances.
Haven't you before made the argument that a 30 yard wondergoal isn't that surprising because these are professional who should be able to do that every time? Where was that "skill" on any of these chances? Or does it only get recognized on the rare occasion it hits the jackpot?
I'm not interested. You obviously think all headed chances and long shots are of equal value because of some numbers on a spreadsheet. Which is nonsense.
Missed the second half (doesn't sound like I missed much...) so only just seen this.
I have never claimed all shots [from the same location] are identical- that's absurd. The only identical situation is a penalty.
If you had bothered to look into it, you would know the location of each shot represents a distribution of probabilities, with lots of different factors impacting that individual chance. The individual xG number represented is simply the average, likely the mean as lots of the factors that would skew the distribution (rendering the mean as biased) are already accounted for in the model estinate. The factors that would cause an outlier if the model was purely based on shot location have already been included in the Opta model (e.g. position of GK, no of defenders, shot type- ground vs air, FK etc), and more advanced models are even better (Statsbomb include the number of defenders applying pressure, direction of pressure etc)
In both of those (first half) examples, I gave clear reason why the opportunities likely represented a worse-than-average chance from that situation, so the actual (unknowable) probability was likely lower than the 5% xG figure: velocity of the pass to Rino, and pressure from defenders on TMac. Do you have any logic argument to suggest they were easier-than-average?
HTH
