by Zip » 20 Feb 2021 18:47
by Snowflake Royal » 20 Feb 2021 18:57
ZipwindermereROYAL 20 goals conceded at home now, only one team have let in more, Birmingham (24) and they`ve lost 10. f**king unacceptable, why are we so shit on our own pitch?[/quote
Too often we concede. Heads drop. We concede again. It’s been a pattern throughout the season. This squad is more talented than the one which won the title under McDermott but they are far more mentally weaker.
by bcubed » 20 Feb 2021 18:59
Brain TraysersSnowflake RoyalBrain Traysers
So which of those three chances was above average opportunity from that position? Rinomhota striking a ball first time from the "wrong" side (it's easier to strike coming across the body). McIntyre heading it under extreme pressure from every direction (possibly on the backfoot too, or that might have been Joãos)? Ejaria probably had the cleanest opportunity, but is pushing >25y away.
It's incredibly generous to think either of those were good chances.
Haven't you before made the argument that a 30 yard wondergoal isn't that surprising because these are professional who should be able to do that every time? Where was that "skill" on any of these chances? Or does it only get recognized on the rare occasion it hits the jackpot?
I'm not interested. You obviously think all headed chances and long shots are of equal value because of some numbers on a spreadsheet. Which is nonsense.
Missed the second half (doesn't sound like I missed much...) so only just seen this.
I have never claimed all shots [from the same location] are identical- that's absurd. The only identical situation is a penalty.
If you had bothered to look into it, you would know the location of each shot represents a distribution of probabilities, with lots of different factors impacting that individual chance. The individual xG number represented is simply the average, likely the mean as lots of the factors that would skew the distribution (rendering the mean as biased) are already accounted for in the model estinate. The factors that would cause an outlier if the model was purely based on shot location have already been included in the Opta model (e.g. position of GK, no of defenders, shot type- ground vs air, FK etc), and more advanced models are even better (Statsbomb include the number of defenders applying pressure, direction of pressure etc)
In both of those (first half) examples, I gave clear reason why the opportunities likely represented a worse-than-average chance from that situation, so the actual (unknowable) probability was likely lower than the 5% xG figure: velocity of the pass to Rino, and pressure from defenders on TMac. Do you have any logic argument to suggest they were easier-than-average?
HTH
by Zip » 20 Feb 2021 19:05
Snowflake RoyalZipwindermereROYAL 20 goals conceded at home now, only one team have let in more, Birmingham (24) and they`ve lost 10. f**king unacceptable, why are we so shit on our own pitch?[/quote
Too often we concede. Heads drop. We concede again. It’s been a pattern throughout the season. This squad is more talented than the one which won the title under McDermott but they are far more mentally weaker.
Anyone fancy doing an analysis of how often we concede within 10 minutes of letting one in?
Compared to others in the division?
I have a feeling it might be disproportionately often.
by Notts Royal » 20 Feb 2021 19:05
karbotaleon Don’t get the BBC Berkshire hate, lads.
You should read all the shit you lot post.
Thought the guy who spoke near the end re Joaos low work rate was spot on, sulking, lazy, throwing his arms in the air, not chasing back when he lost the ball, lets cash in now.
by Lower West » 20 Feb 2021 19:15
by windermereROYAL » 20 Feb 2021 19:15
Snowflake RoyalZipwindermereROYAL 20 goals conceded at home now, only one team have let in more, Birmingham (24) and they`ve lost 10. f**king unacceptable, why are we so shit on our own pitch?[/quote
Too often we concede. Heads drop. We concede again. It’s been a pattern throughout the season. This squad is more talented than the one which won the title under McDermott but they are far more mentally weaker.
Anyone fancy doing an analysis of how often we concede within 10 minutes of letting one in?
Compared to others in the division?
I have a feeling it might be disproportionately often.
by AthleticoSpizz » 20 Feb 2021 19:19
DK seemed to be almost as much an effective defender as much as a old-school striker....best value to the club ever?Notts Royalkarbotaleon Don’t get the BBC Berkshire hate, lads.
You should read all the shit you lot post.
Thought the guy who spoke near the end re Joaos low work rate was spot on, sulking, lazy, throwing his arms in the air, not chasing back when he lost the ball, lets cash in now.
That’s why my nickname for him is Lazy Joao...because he is. I don’t dislike him, he’s brilliant on his day. But if things don’t go his way, he’s lazy.
There’s been comparisons between him and Kitson, and whilst he’s had a similar impact, he doesn’t come close to Big Dave in terms of legendary status for me
by alfie9 » 20 Feb 2021 19:20
by Zip » 20 Feb 2021 19:20
windermereROYALSnowflake RoyalZip
Anyone fancy doing an analysis of how often we concede within 10 minutes of letting one in?
Compared to others in the division?
I have a feeling it might be disproportionately often.
Coventry 76, 85 mins. Bournemouth 56, 59 mins. Stoke 23, 35mins (not quite). Preston 64,68mins. Brentford 23,29mins. Birmingham 29,37mins. Brentford 86,88mins. Millwall 76,85mins. today 22,29mins.
One word, atrocious.
by Snowflake Royal » 20 Feb 2021 19:25
ZipwindermereROYALSnowflake Royal Anyone fancy doing an analysis of how often we concede within 10 minutes of letting one in?
Compared to others in the division?
I have a feeling it might be disproportionately often.
Coventry 76, 85 mins. Bournemouth 56, 59 mins. Stoke 23, 35mins (not quite). Preston 64,68mins. Brentford 23,29mins. Birmingham 29,37mins. Brentford 86,88mins. Millwall 76,85mins. today 22,29mins.
One word, atrocious.
So in 9 of the 10 games we’ve lost we conceded two goals very quickly. That really is a big problem.
by Brain Traysers » 20 Feb 2021 19:26
bcubedBrain TraysersSnowflake Royal I'm not interested. You obviously think all headed chances and long shots are of equal value because of some numbers on a spreadsheet. Which is nonsense.
Missed the second half (doesn't sound like I missed much...) so only just seen this.
I have never claimed all shots [from the same location] are identical- that's absurd. The only identical situation is a penalty.
If you had bothered to look into it, you would know the location of each shot represents a distribution of probabilities, with lots of different factors impacting that individual chance. The individual xG number represented is simply the average, likely the mean as lots of the factors that would skew the distribution (rendering the mean as biased) are already accounted for in the model estinate. The factors that would cause an outlier if the model was purely based on shot location have already been included in the Opta model (e.g. position of GK, no of defenders, shot type- ground vs air, FK etc), and more advanced models are even better (Statsbomb include the number of defenders applying pressure, direction of pressure etc)
In both of those (first half) examples, I gave clear reason why the opportunities likely represented a worse-than-average chance from that situation, so the actual (unknowable) probability was likely lower than the 5% xG figure: velocity of the pass to Rino, and pressure from defenders on TMac. Do you have any logic argument to suggest they were easier-than-average?
HTH
Yawn
by Brain Traysers » 20 Feb 2021 19:43
alfie9 I am already mentally preparing myself for this club finishing 7th.
Bye Omar, enjoy Germany. Hope we at least sign McIntyre.
by Zip » 20 Feb 2021 19:49
Brain Traysersalfie9 I am already mentally preparing myself for this club finishing 7th.
Bye Omar, enjoy Germany. Hope we at least sign McIntyre.
I can't see this season ending in anything other than playoff disappointment, whether failing to make them, or limping to 5th-6th and struggling to compete thanks to more injuries to key players.
Even if it does, it's been a hell of a lot more fun watching us be competitive and creative in the majority of games!
by South Coast Royal » 20 Feb 2021 19:59
by leon » 20 Feb 2021 20:02
Zipleon Don’t get the BBC Berkshire hate, lads.
You should read all the shit you lot post.
Dellor is unprofessional. He takes an irrational like or dislike to a player and it clouds his commentary. Gooding offers next to no insight considering he’s an ex pro.
by windermereROYAL » 20 Feb 2021 20:05
by Zip » 20 Feb 2021 20:07
leonZipleon Don’t get the BBC Berkshire hate, lads.
You should read all the shit you lot post.
Dellor is unprofessional. He takes an irrational like or dislike to a player and it clouds his commentary. Gooding offers next to no insight considering he’s an ex pro.
Get off your high horse Zip ffs.
by Brain Traysers » 20 Feb 2021 20:13
ZipBrain Traysersalfie9 I am already mentally preparing myself for this club finishing 7th.
Bye Omar, enjoy Germany. Hope we at least sign McIntyre.
I can't see this season ending in anything other than playoff disappointment, whether failing to make them, or limping to 5th-6th and struggling to compete thanks to more injuries to key players.
Even if it does, it's been a hell of a lot more fun watching us be competitive and creative in the majority of games!
The team have been a joy to watch this season and given us something to look forward to during some miserable months. It would be a shame if it all petered out.
by South Coast Royal » 20 Feb 2021 20:54
windermereROYAL Some of the older fans will remember Bury being our bogey side, it would appear Boro are the modern day version. shocking recent record against them.
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