Ince out!

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Millsy
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Re: Ince out!

by Millsy » 11 Nov 2022 09:14

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As daft as it sounds, could we "afford" relegation form for the remainder of the season, just based on the start we had?

My point being, after beating Bristol City we were 7th with 25 points after 16 games. I won't use the current 22nd-placed team West Brom because they are the anomaly I think, let's use Blackpool who are 21st and expected to be somewhere near the bottom 3 who currently have 22 points from 20 games. Blackpool's ppg is currently at 1.1. So with 26 games left, based on that ppg, they will achieve another 28.6 points (I will round up to 29) so they will finish the season on 51 points.

In our last 10 fixtures, we've amassed 8 points, a ppg of 0.8 (what I'd consider "relegation form"). We also have 26 games left, so that's another 20.8 points (rounding up to 21 to keep consistent) which would leave us 57 points, comfortably above Blackpool, as well as Wigan and Huddersfield who I anticipate to finish in and around the bottom 3, if not in there.

Obviously, that's just pure numbers and doesn't factor in fixtures, injuries, form, manager changes etc. But at this point, nearly halfway through the season, you'd be thinking that most teams are currently sitting in the positions they are going to finish. West Brom and Middlesbrough will likely climb, but probably won't reach the play offs, us and Birmingham will probably fall, but not into the bottom 3. So the ppg, for most teams at the point (as in total points after the number of games), is probably going to be what you'd expect. For example, a lot of fans believe someone will go down with 50+ points this season and I've just calculated Blackpool (theoretically being the 3rd worst side in the division, thus going down) on 51.


I'd check your maths there. We don't have 36 points. Based on that we'd end up with 47 points and probably relegated, not 57 points


:lol: Correct. Ignore that, relegation form we are f*cked!

Either way, still think we will be ok, just need some players to be back fit again. Not sure how good a lot of these teams below us actually are all things said and done, just need a good result at Hull on Saturday.


Still, good analysis thanks, bar the slip-up, YR.

Yeh there are so many factors, as Ian says the final fight of relegation teams. It’s too early to tell. Get some defenders back, get the WC over and it’ll be a different beast I’m sure.

Much as I like Ince for all the reasons I detailed in the appreciation thread I’m just wary now that the same Pauno pattern might be emerging.. Really want them to work their magic again. I want him to stay.

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Re: Ince out!

by Snowflake Royal » 11 Nov 2022 09:18

I'd like to have the same manager start the season as ends it two seasons in a row.

But they need to show that's actually warranted.

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Re: Ince out!

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 11 Nov 2022 10:13

Snowflake Royal I'd like to have the same manager start the season as ends it two seasons in a row.

But they need to show that's actually warranted.


Yeah, that's why I quite "liked" the Pauno appointment as he was at his job previously for a few seasons and did "ok" at Chicago all things considered. But again, if you're losing 7-0 at home and in the cup to a side 5 divisions below where we were, your position is untenable at that stage, but there were probably factors beyond his control in some of that as well, but ultimately, he pays the price.

Because of where we are, every manager is going to have a sticky spell, it's about showing we can come through it at the other end. But obviously the conversation becomes "how long is piece of string?" Do you stick with an underperforming manager and give him the backing or do you get rid in order for more instant success, but potentially a repeat cycle as we've seen for seasons on end now.

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Re: Ince out!

by Snowflake Royal » 11 Nov 2022 10:23

If we lost but it was hard fought and just a better side, or the rub of the green went against us, it'd be easier to take. Or if our players just weren’t very good.

But it often seems to be as much our own poor performance, tactics and set up, plus continual horrendous injuries, and we rarely seem to have a clue what our best side or way of playing is. And we rarely seem to make positive changes to fix problems.

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Re: Ince out!

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 11 Nov 2022 10:40

I mean, you could say some of those factors have contributed in some of our recent games. Burnley was very much rub of the green, Watford was a battle, but we were beaten by a better side, Luton we played well and probably should have won with Preston really being our only real "poor" performance out of the lot. Those 4 sides are all better than us as well (Preston debatably in terms of quality on the pitch but were in form at the time).

Tactics are often easy to criticise and maybe does have some justification behind it, but you could see the plan at Watford was clear, stay in the game until the last 10 minutes and then throw some attacking players on to try and nick something. You could see that, we just lacked quality and ultimately being wide open they were always more likely to score a second, I'd imagine they are pretty common scenarios, when the worse quality side is chasing against a better side.


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Re: Ince out!

by Coppells Lost Coat » 11 Nov 2022 10:41

Snowflake Royal If we lost but it was hard fought and just a better side, or the rub of the green went against us, it'd be easier to take. Or if our players just weren’t very good.

But it often seems to be as much our own poor performance, tactics and set up, plus continual horrendous injuries, and we rarely seem to have a clue what our best side or way of playing is. And we rarely seem to make positive changes to fix problems.


Going slightly off topic but mostly agree. I dont mind losing if we lost to the better side on the day, I dont feel like we did last couple of games. I think this team can perform miles ahead of recent games. I am hoping that its down to the WC.
WC big distraction for our fit players hoping to go. Baba, Yids, Hoilet Loum, all have put in half hearted games recently. They do not want to get injured and clearly coasting which I get but they are plugging gaping holes in our injured squad...catch 22 scenario.

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Re: Ince out!

by Vision » 11 Nov 2022 15:38

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Snowflake Royal If we lost but it was hard fought and just a better side, or the rub of the green went against us, it'd be easier to take. Or if our players just weren’t very good.

But it often seems to be as much our own poor performance, tactics and set up, plus continual horrendous injuries, and we rarely seem to have a clue what our best side or way of playing is. And we rarely seem to make positive changes to fix problems.


Going slightly off topic but mostly agree. I dont mind losing if we lost to the better side on the day, I dont feel like we did last couple of games. I think this team can perform miles ahead of recent games. I am hoping that its down to the WC.
WC big distraction for our fit players hoping to go. Baba, Yids, Hoilet Loum, all have put in half hearted games recently. They do not want to get injured and clearly coasting which I get but they are plugging gaping holes in our injured squad...catch 22 scenario.



To some degree if Yids and Hoilet are plugging gaps it's because those gaps have been created by Ince's formation of choice. If he is wedded to having 3 at the back then he has to use actual centre halves in those positions. For the odd game that might mean trusting Abbey as right sided centre half or Clarke on the other side. Who knows he may find himself another option moving forward. FWIW i actually like Yiadom as the right side of a back 3 anyway but if we're concerned about Holiett as a wing back there's an obvious answer there.

Baba and Loum have both had ready made replacements sitting on the bench so if they're coasting then it's on the manager to do something about it. Also we bleat about Hutch being such a big loss for the defence and then when we get him back he plays in central midifeld. Again I'm not complaining about that as such, I thought the system made us reasonably competitive in the game but it's an indication that Ince has far more options available than the "we're down to the bare bones" mantra he keeps feeding us.

I'm not at all wanting Ince out. The 4141 system at demonstrates that perhaps he can change and the recent run of games has been lopsided in the potential quality of the opposition.

BUT "siege mentality" can very quickly develop into "inferiority complex" if you bang on about how much better the opposition is every week.

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Re: Ince out!

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 11 Nov 2022 16:25

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Snowflake Royal If we lost but it was hard fought and just a better side, or the rub of the green went against us, it'd be easier to take. Or if our players just weren’t very good.

But it often seems to be as much our own poor performance, tactics and set up, plus continual horrendous injuries, and we rarely seem to have a clue what our best side or way of playing is. And we rarely seem to make positive changes to fix problems.


Going slightly off topic but mostly agree. I dont mind losing if we lost to the better side on the day, I dont feel like we did last couple of games. I think this team can perform miles ahead of recent games. I am hoping that its down to the WC.
WC big distraction for our fit players hoping to go. Baba, Yids, Hoilet Loum, all have put in half hearted games recently. They do not want to get injured and clearly coasting which I get but they are plugging gaping holes in our injured squad...catch 22 scenario.



To some degree if Yids and Hoilet are plugging gaps it's because those gaps have been created by Ince's formation of choice. If he is wedded to having 3 at the back then he has to use actual centre halves in those positions. For the odd game that might mean trusting Abbey as right sided centre half or Clarke on the other side. Who knows he may find himself another option moving forward. FWIW i actually like Yiadom as the right side of a back 3 anyway but if we're concerned about Holiett as a wing back there's an obvious answer there.

Baba and Loum have both had ready made replacements sitting on the bench so if they're coasting then it's on the manager to do something about it. Also we bleat about Hutch being such a big loss for the defence and then when we get him back he plays in central midifeld. Again I'm not complaining about that as such, I thought the system made us reasonably competitive in the game but it's an indication that Ince has far more options available than the "we're down to the bare bones" mantra he keeps feeding us.

I'm not at all wanting Ince out. The 4141 system at demonstrates that perhaps he can change and the recent run of games has been lopsided in the potential quality of the opposition.

BUT "siege mentality" can very quickly develop into "inferiority complex" if you bang on about how much better the opposition is every week.


Agree here - especially with siege mentality turning into, we just simply aren't that good. Of course, there has to be the realism that we are where we are.

Sometimes I think these "plugging gaps" is just an issue we have to deal with. Obviously, if you're causing your own issues, that can be different, but I think Hoilett being in the position he is, is a trade-off of wanting to be more solid at the back, which is working this season in comparison to last, as well as not having the ability to fill your squad with who you want. Ultimately, any transfers we have completed are reactive.

Same principle when people are saying the striking options maybe aren't working because players don't necessarily complement each other. The trade-off to that is, we have nobody instead, because we can't go and buy what we need in certain areas until next season. Fortunately, we've managed to put together a squad capable of competing and surviving, but it there was always going to be bumps in the road. Versatility is great to have, in regards to Hutchinson, but having players flip-flop between positions means they would be constantly playing, increasing chances of injury, tiredness in games and potentially a lack of consistency.

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Re: Ince out!

by Snowflake Royal » 11 Nov 2022 19:04

Vision
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Snowflake Royal If we lost but it was hard fought and just a better side, or the rub of the green went against us, it'd be easier to take. Or if our players just weren’t very good.

But it often seems to be as much our own poor performance, tactics and set up, plus continual horrendous injuries, and we rarely seem to have a clue what our best side or way of playing is. And we rarely seem to make positive changes to fix problems.


Going slightly off topic but mostly agree. I dont mind losing if we lost to the better side on the day, I dont feel like we did last couple of games. I think this team can perform miles ahead of recent games. I am hoping that its down to the WC.
WC big distraction for our fit players hoping to go. Baba, Yids, Hoilet Loum, all have put in half hearted games recently. They do not want to get injured and clearly coasting which I get but they are plugging gaping holes in our injured squad...catch 22 scenario.



To some degree if Yids and Hoilet are plugging gaps it's because those gaps have been created by Ince's formation of choice. If he is wedded to having 3 at the back then he has to use actual centre halves in those positions. For the odd game that might mean trusting Abbey as right sided centre half or Clarke on the other side. Who knows he may find himself another option moving forward. FWIW i actually like Yiadom as the right side of a back 3 anyway but if we're concerned about Holiett as a wing back there's an obvious answer there.

Baba and Loum have both had ready made replacements sitting on the bench so if they're coasting then it's on the manager to do something about it. Also we bleat about Hutch being such a big loss for the defence and then when we get him back he plays in central midifeld. Again I'm not complaining about that as such, I thought the system made us reasonably competitive in the game but it's an indication that Ince has far more options available than the "we're down to the bare bones" mantra he keeps feeding us.

I'm not at all wanting Ince out. The 4141 system at demonstrates that perhaps he can change and the recent run of games has been lopsided in the potential quality of the opposition.

BUT "siege mentality" can very quickly develop into "inferiority complex" if you bang on about how much better the opposition is every week.

Excellent post as always.


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Re: Ince out!

by elrey » 12 Nov 2022 03:59

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Would help if Dai would stop making questionnable management appointments in the first place


Unfortunately I doubt that is going to change. You could hope that Bowen would get to pick the next manager, but.....


Gomes and Pauno were just head-scratching appointments. Bowen picking himself wasn't a lot better, but at least he had some experience of the league.

Obviously Ince wasn't at the top of anyone's 'ideal manager' list. But it was a fairly logical appointment. And him coming 'bundled' with TInce is a clear positive. I see absolutely no reason not to give him the season or two that most managers need to build a team from scratch.


There are managers that need time to build a club. Like Arteta, and others like Rodgers who the more time they get, the worse they'll make things.

Ince has proven himself to be a manager who makes a hash of things after a short period of time.

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Re: Ince out!

by tmesis » 13 Nov 2022 13:49

elrey Ince has proven himself to be a manager who makes a hash of things after a short period of time.

Has he? Or has he just tended to be at clubs where the odds are that failure is likely eventually?

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Re: Ince out!

by Hound » 13 Nov 2022 14:03

Ince has done and is doing ok. Don’t really think he is a long term answer in terms as he won’t get us up

Every manager moans or whinges about illogical things at times, find it just as boring fans picking up on stuff like Ince saying we are tired as an excuse and bleating on about that. It’s just nonsense cliches to get through their presser, he isn’t stupid

I like the guy - watched his 10m interview after the Hull game and thought that’s a good guy. Nice change after Pauno, Adkins and Gomes’ try hard big smiles and suntans, Clements boringness and Stam’s general unpleasantness.

Happy for him to hang around for a while

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Re: Ince out!

by Royalwaster » 13 Nov 2022 14:08

Hound Ince has done and is doing ok. Don’t really think he is a long term answer in terms as he won’t get us up

Every manager moans or whinges about illogical things at times, find it just as boring fans picking up on stuff like Ince saying we are tired as an excuse and bleating on about that. It’s just nonsense cliches to get through their presser, he isn’t stupid

I like the guy - watched his 10m interview after the Hull game and thought that’s a good guy. Nice change after Pauno, Adkins and Gomes’ try hard big smiles and suntans, Clements boringness and Stam’s general unpleasantness.

Happy for him to hang around for a while


Totally agree - if someone had offered me mid-table by this stage of the season in August I'd have bitten their hand off ... so really no reason to complain. Some lousy performances sure, but we've had some good ones and I've been very happy with his signings so far overall. So I'm 100% 'Ince in'.


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Re: Ince out!

by Royal_jimmy » 13 Nov 2022 14:27

We've been frustrating to watch at times but we have had a positive first half of the season. We only need about 1 point a game from our remaining ones to get 55 points which I think we are capable of doing and get results against most teams down the bottom of the table. He's done a solid job after the shaky start that we had.

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Re: Ince out!

by Zip » 13 Nov 2022 15:11

After 21 games last season we had won 27 points but had six deducted. So our record and indeed goal difference is very similar to the first part of last season.

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Re: Ince out!

by Hound » 13 Nov 2022 15:44

True but wasn’t this roughly when we’re about to start our utterly terrible run under Pauno? Also had a ton of injuries etc?

Obvs could repeat itself but I’d certainly hope not

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Re: Ince out!

by Zip » 13 Nov 2022 20:09

Hound True but wasn’t this roughly when we’re about to start our utterly terrible run under Pauno? Also had a ton of injuries etc?

Obvs could repeat itself but I’d certainly hope not


In fairness to Pauno the ton of injuries occurred very early on and was unrelenting. We are around a month ahead of last season in terms of games played and nearing that awful run of results we had at the turn of the year.

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Re: Ince out!

by Hound » 13 Nov 2022 21:03

Zip
Hound True but wasn’t this roughly when we’re about to start our utterly terrible run under Pauno? Also had a ton of injuries etc?

Obvs could repeat itself but I’d certainly hope not


In fairness to Pauno the ton of injuries occurred very early on and was unrelenting. We are around a month ahead of last season in terms of games played and nearing that awful run of results we had at the turn of the year.


Yep remember the team being seriously weak at times - a lot worse than it is now

That Fulham 7-0 just as an example - had Tetek and Bristow at FB, Dann playing and injured after 7 mins, and a bench of 6 inc Rino, Puscas, Stickland, Camara and Clarke

Midfield included TDB and Drinkwater

It’s a genuinely terrible team.

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Re: Ince out!

by tmesis » 13 Nov 2022 21:07

Hound Ince has done and is doing ok. Don’t really think he is a long term answer in terms as he won’t get us up

Every manager moans or whinges about illogical things at times, find it just as boring fans picking up on stuff like Ince saying we are tired as an excuse and bleating on about that. It’s just nonsense cliches to get through their presser, he isn’t stupid

I like the guy - watched his 10m interview after the Hull game and thought that’s a good guy. Nice change after Pauno, Adkins and Gomes’ try hard big smiles and suntans, Clements boringness and Stam’s general unpleasantness.

Happy for him to hang around for a while

I don't think getting promoted is a realistic option for the forseeable future whoever is in charge, not unless we are brilliant in our recruitment and/or some real gems come through the youth set-up.

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Re: Ince out!

by Zip » 13 Nov 2022 21:09

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Hound True but wasn’t this roughly when we’re about to start our utterly terrible run under Pauno? Also had a ton of injuries etc?

Obvs could repeat itself but I’d certainly hope not


In fairness to Pauno the ton of injuries occurred very early on and was unrelenting. We are around a month ahead of last season in terms of games played and nearing that awful run of results we had at the turn of the year.


Yep remember the team being seriously weak at times - a lot worse than it is now

That Fulham 7-0 just as an example - had Tetek and Bristow at FB, Dann playing and injured after 7 mins, and a bench of 6 inc Rino, Puscas, Stickland, Camara and Clarke

Midfield included TDB and Drinkwater

It’s a genuinely terrible team.



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