by YorkshireRoyal99 »
10 Nov 2022 16:52
Millsy Coppells Lost Coat
Its the league position that matters most. After 20 games we sit 13th - I would have bitten your hand off if offered at start of season. The extra win would have us 10th.
If we are losing against the teams below us I would be wetting the bed a bit more but most of the teams we lost against will be in and around playoff or autos in May.
I see where you're coming from and arguably it's almost ridiculous that we're even thinking of Ince Out. Poor chap dealt a very bad hand and has done far better than anyone ever expected we could. Hutch out, results drop.
HOWEVER I think you're wrong. I get where it's coming from in that it's almost a carbon copy of the Pauno situation and I'm about to say the same thing I said then when I felt like Cassandra. I was one of I think 3 or 4 on here who were anti-Pauno despite us finishing 7th, my argument being the form since the magic opening spell was relegation form: we went from 7 points clear of 2nd place to 7pts below a playoff spot. He just carried on being shit the next season and the rest is history. It's not about the league position it's about how that's achieved and what the trend is. Had Pauno had a bad start but then picked up more and more results as he got to know the team and elevated us up to 7th in a final push then hell yeah he'd be a hero and he'd have probably taken us up the next season. But he didn't - it was 7 great games and then a season of relagation form which if anythign probably worseneed.
Likewise with Ince - if we look at the current league standings we may be happy, but again it's about the way it's achieved. After Pauno situation we are more wary of magic spells and the way they mask the ongoing poor form.
I really fail to see how with this squad we're not scoring for fun.
Only FIVE teams have scored less than we have. And only TWO have conceded more than we have. Only TWO teams have a worse goal difference than we do. The table doesn't lie, but the table is more than just the points column and it doesn't show trend.
Still I like Ince and believe/hope he'll turn it round.
As daft as it sounds, could we "afford" relegation form for the remainder of the season, just based on the start we had?
My point being, after beating Bristol City we were 7th with 25 points after 16 games. I won't use the current 22nd-placed team West Brom because they are the anomaly I think, let's use Blackpool who are 21st and expected to be somewhere near the bottom 3 who currently have 22 points from 20 games. Blackpool's ppg is currently at 1.1. So with 26 games left, based on that ppg, they will achieve another 28.6 points (I will round up to 29) so they will finish the season on 51 points.
In our last 10 fixtures, we've amassed 8 points, a ppg of 0.8 (what I'd consider "relegation form"). We also have 26 games left, so that's another 20.8 points (rounding up to 21 to keep consistent) which would leave us 57 points, comfortably above Blackpool, as well as Wigan and Huddersfield who I anticipate to finish in and around the bottom 3, if not in there.
Obviously, that's just pure numbers and doesn't factor in fixtures, injuries, form, manager changes etc. But at this point, nearly halfway through the season, you'd be thinking that most teams are currently sitting in the positions they are going to finish. West Brom and Middlesbrough will likely climb, but probably won't reach the play offs, us and Birmingham will probably fall, but not into the bottom 3. So the ppg, for
most teams at the point (as in total points after the number of games), is probably going to be what you'd expect. For example, a lot of fans believe someone will go down with 50+ points this season and I've just calculated Blackpool (theoretically being the 3rd worst side in the division, thus going down) on 51.