Safety Points (Again - But New Slant)!

[LUX]

Prices from the Current Season Points Market from Spread betting firm IG Index are:

Watford 28.5
Charlton 32
W Ham 38
S Utd 38.5
Wigan 40.75
Reading 49.5

Prob the best guide you will get at the moment.

Does that mean the prediction is that Reading will finish 6th last..?? Or, as I suspect, there are other teams between Wigan at 40.75 and Reading at 49.5.

Boro surely.

[Royalphil]

We can still finish 1st

I just love your optimism....

But, then again, this is a stats theme I suppose....

[Tony Le Mesmer]

Prices from the Current Season Points Market from Spread betting firm IG Index are:

Watford 28.5
Charlton 32
W Ham 38
S Utd 38.5
Wigan 40.75
Reading 49.5

Prob the best guide you will get at the moment.

Does that mean the prediction is that Reading will finish 6th last..?? Or, as I suspect, there are other teams between Wigan at 40.75 and Reading at 49.5.

Boro surely.

No just but Reading in for comparison.

We are forecast to finish 10th

[weybridgewanderer]

Watford Points 29
Charlton Points 32.75
West Ham Points 38.75
Sheff Utd Points 39
Wigan Points 41.5
Middlesbrough Points 43.5
Fulham Points 45
Man.City Points 47.5
Aston Villa Points 47.75
Newcastle Points 48
Reading Points 50.25
Blackburn Points 51.25

So the spread bet is predicting 4 teams with less than 40 points

[JC]

What we had last year was the "magic number" which was the points total we required to be absolutely certain to gain promotion. Similarly there is a magic number this season to avoid relegation and that is currently 38, ie one point more than the maximum points that can be obtained by the team which would finish 3rd from bottom if they won every game. That would currently be Charlton with 67 points. This number will reduce every time we gain points or the others lose them so if Charlton fail to win tonight the magic number becomes 37.

[RoyalChicagoFC]

Right, and it would take a minimum of seven (7) games from now to pare 37 down to zero --six straight wins ( x 3 = 18 ) our way, six straight losses ( x 3 = 18 ) at the other end, and then one more point gained on our side or dropped on the other...and seven games from now, there will be 9 games remaining --which is why I'm not even going to start counting this thing down until we are, at most, a dozen games from the finish line.

Then again I suppose it was just as difficult to do the promotion one??

Just as easy, as I perceive it.

Same principles apply in this season as in last. Calculate the maximum possible points total of whoever your relevant pursuer is --in this case, the team currently sitting in 18th place (presuming no games in hand)-- add one, and then subtract RFC's current points total from that in order to get your "magic number" --but again, there's so much season left right now, and the hypothetical safety bar still so high, that the numbers are effectively meaningless.

[Royalphil]

Then again I suppose it was just as difficult to do the promotion one??

Just as easy, as I perceive it.

Thanks Chicargo, just what we wanted.... I am excited already..... this could be as much fun as the promotion race last season...

[BasketCase]

Anyone else note that of the bottom 9 teams we have to play

6 at the Mad stad (Watford, SheffU, Wigan, Fulham, Villa and Newky),
2 away (Boro and Charlton) and
we've done the the double over the 'ammers.

[JC]

Well its down to 34 now.

[The 17 Bus]

so if we get 35 points we are safe?

[Sussex Royal]

so if we get 35 points we are safe?

No we need 34 (well strictly speaking yes I suppose as 35 would also do )

West Ham have 19 points and 15 games left = Maximum points possible of 64

We have 31 - so 34 more points needed.

[No Hoops]

Anyone else note that of the bottom 9 teams we have to play

6 at the Mad stad (Watford, SheffU, Wigan, Fulham, Villa and Newky),
2 away (Boro and Charlton) and
we've done the the double over the 'ammers.

With Sheff U, Wigan, City, Villa and Boro in the next 5

I can see us getting 12 pts from these games. so we would be safe by end of Feb.

Nice.

[bigmike]

Prices from the Current Season Points Market from Spread betting firm IG Index are:

Watford 28.5
Charlton 32
W Ham 38
S Utd 38.5
Wigan 40.75
Reading 49.5

Prob the best guide you will get at the moment.

Does that mean the prediction is that Reading will finish 6th last..?? Or, as I suspect, there are other teams between Wigan at 40.75 and Reading at 49.5.

Boro surely.

No just but Reading in for comparison.

We are forecast to finish 10th

I would be happy with 10th...

I would have been happy with 17th on goal difference before the season started

[oldelmparky]

Anyone else note that of the bottom 9 teams we have to play

6 at the Mad stad (Watford, SheffU, Wigan, Fulham, Villa and Newky),
2 away (Boro and Charlton) and
we've done the the double over the 'ammers.

With Sheff U, Wigan, City, Villa and Boro in the next 5

I can see us getting 12 pts from these games. so we would be safe by end of Feb.

Nice.

No.
We can only be safe after six more games (ie after 3rd March).
Winning our next six, which includes the one at the Emirates.
Wonderful birthday presi for me (12th March).

[Gordons Cumming]

I don't know what all the fuss is about.

We'll easily make 50 points so this discussion is irrelevant.

HTH

I agree.

[Alan Partridge]

I don't know what all the fuss is about.

We'll easily make 50 points so this discussion is irrelevant.

HTH

I agree.

Blimey!

I agree btw.

[oldelmparky]

I don't know what all the fuss is about.

We'll easily make 50 points so this discussion is irrelevant.

HTH

I agree.

I wish I could agree with my opinions sometimes.

[Gordons Cumming]

I don't know what all the fuss is about.

We'll easily make 50 points so this discussion is irrelevant.

HTH

I agree.

I wish I could agree with my opinions sometimes.

It's easy if you try.

[oldelmparky]

I don't know what all the fuss is about.

We'll easily make 50 points so this discussion is irrelevant.

HTH

I agree.

I wish I could agree with my opinions sometimes.

It's easy if you try.

Just at the point of being convinced, I find an alternative view.

[oldelmparky]

... but hey.

Since the half way point the Magic Number has fallen from 50 to 34 in just four games. So at that rate we'll be safe after Easter.