Shane Long

[Snowball]

As you are focusing on goals, snowball, how many league points have Long's goals directly earned us? What you are not taking into account is that, irrespective of Long's actual goals per minute, if our forward line is not as effective overall (with the ball at feet, in the air, holding up play etc), then the team's results will be affected.I'd suggest that is why Doyle has consistently been in the side, and Long has not.



Actually this is what started me off on analysing Long's performances.

An incredible number of his goals and assists have been VITAL.

THIS SEASON

1 He scored the equaliser at Saints when we were awful. One Point due to him
2 He came on at 0-0 against Norwich. Two minutes later he won the penalty (Hunt scored) then two minutes later scored himself. THREE points due to him
3 He came on after Hunt's injury at Birmingham (score was 1-1). He won the free-kick for Doyle's goal that put us back in front.
4 He won the penalty for Steve Hunts equaliser at Watford One Point due to him
5 He came on for about six minutes and made the third goal at Wolves (for Cisse)

Not "Point-Winning", but...

6 He also made both goals at Dagenham
7 Played in the 2-2 draw at Premiership side Stoke and scored "emphatic penalty" in shoot-out (Lita missed his)
8 Came on when we were losing 4-2 at Charlton and made two great chances for Hunt and Lita. both wasted.
9 Played the first hour v Luton (4-0 when he came off) Site says his "electrifying pace frightened Luton"

LAST SEASON

1 He made Steve Hunts 94th minute winner versus Sunderland. Reading site says "Long made a brilliant run to set up Hunt" (Two points)

2 He made an absolute sitter for Hunt v Blackburn (web-site says "brilliant work by Long" ) Hunt missed (0-0) had Hunt have scored we'd've stayed up! (Should've been worth 2 points)

3 He scored the winning goal v Newcastle (2-1) (Three Points?) He had come on in the 83rd minute to replace Lita!

here is his goal. Compare it to Lita's performance. The delivery aimed for Sonko, and he battled for a header. It fell loose to Long, who chested, then rifled just inside the post with his second touch. A fantastic introduction for the young Irishman, and for a second it looked like it had got away with him, but he rifled home for a vital goal.

With 12 on the clock, Lita missed what can only be described as an absolute sitter. Right winger Kevin Doyle did well, and Lita was completely unmarked as the ball rolled to him eight yards out; the goal gaping. He got his feet all wrong though, and tried to sidefoot home with his right, only to miss the ball completely and see it bounce off his standing leg.

and.. Then Lita had another great chance. Doyle broke brilliantly, and held off three men to get in a wonderful cross. Hunt laid off for Lita, and he took a touch before smacking the bouncing ball miles over. Not as clear a chance as his earlier miss, but he would still normally hit the target.


4 He scored crucial first goal in 68th minute v Man City (Kitson scored 2nd in 88th minute) 2-0


Not directly "winning points"

5 Was brought into the side after eight straight defeats and played in our 1-0 win at BORO (then scored in our next game 2-0)

6 His other goal was meaningless, part of the 7-4 thrashing at Pompey

Now consider Lita last season. His only goal was in the last minute of the season, at Derby when we are already thrashing them 3-0

First Premiership Season.

Only 1 start, and 10 sub appearances

1 Scored important goal in 44th minute versus Sheffield United (his first premiership goal)
2 Scored crucial first goal in 68th minute v Man City (Kitson scored 2nd in 88th minute) 2-0

The Promotion Season

1 In his second ever appearance for the club (his debut was 3 days before) he came on in the 70th minute and we were losing 2-1 and about to lose our unbeaten record, but he scored in the 88th minute to grab Reading a 2-2 draw!

Not directly point-winning

He also came on for just 24 minues as a sub versus Derby in the home game and scored TWO

That season he played a total of 273 league minutes and score 3 league goals

[Snowball]

You do have to wonder, if Long is as good as Snowball says he is, why have no other teams been in for him.

How do you know they haven't?

I think the Ireland squad have been in for him a few times, and didn't he score two versus Denmark?

[Schards#2]

Snowball, did you go to the Luton game?

If you didn't, I can confirm he was absolute garbage and failed to score against a poor Division Two defence despite being set up with several sitters.

I cannot believe he will ever be a 20 goals a season player at Conference standard or higher because he, simply, isn't very good.

[cmonurz]

Snowball, I am talking about goals - Shane Long's goals have been worth a measly 6 points in 3.5 years. Your focus has been on goals, so lets not shift the goalposts.

What you are actually doing is defeating your own argument - a stat re Long's goals doesn't fall on your side, so you start talking about all round play. And it is all round play that lets Long down and is the reason why Coppell hasn't given him a decent run in the starting XI.

[1871royals]

If Shane Long had been so great in 4 years SC would have considering him good enough to start regularly.

He's Darius Henderson 6 years later

[Snowball]

You're still ignoring my question snowball, as to how many points Long's goals have directly earned us.

Edit: I worked it out (didn't take long). Without Long's goals we would be 6 points worse off over the last 3.5 seasons.

That's just DUMB. He has won us far more

01 Southampton away (scored)
03 Norwich home (won penalty and scored the other goal)
01 Watford away ((won penalty in dying seconds)
02 Made the winner in 94th versus Sunderland
02 Came on in 83rd to replace woeful Lita and scored winner in 84th)
01 Scored late equaliser as sub in only his second game, kept the unbeaten run going


10 Points

Scored opening goal right on half-time v Sheffield United.
Scored opening goal of 2-0 win v Man City


and I'm missing one... he came on as a late-late sub in the Prem at home and got a totally precious goal in the 89th... what game was that?

[Royal Lady]

You do have to wonder, if Long is as good as Snowball says he is, why have no other teams been in for him.

Shane isn't a good player imo. He's had 4 years to prove himself and he hasn't. Some of his goals have been lucky, some have been pretty quality, but that's not good enough at this level, let alone in the Premiership. And if he *was* that good, how come he's never been linked with any other clubs!

<------- I said that on page 1!

[cmonurz]

You can't include assists snowball, as discussed on the 'Assists' thread on this board, there are more facets to an assist than making the final pass, or getting fouled.

[Hoop Blah]

Now I quite like a bit of research and evidence to back up a point....but...Snowball, do you have either of a) a job, or b) a life?

Seriously though, all that you've spouted out proves nothing in terms of how good a player Long is or can be.

[1871royals]

Its easy to have a high goals per minute ratio when you hardly play any minutes.

Darius Henderson had a phenomenal record but he wasn't good enough.

[Snowball]

If Shane Long had been so great in 4 years SC would have considering him good enough to start regularly.

Doesn't follow. He has to be BETTER than Kitson-Doyle-Lita-Hunt etc just like a woman has to be BETTER than a man to get the job.


Start Season 1, 18 years old. Picked as a long-term prospect, not expected to play. Kitson-Doyle-Lita all playing well. Did not debut (as sub) until Dec 28th. Scored 3 in 273 minutes) Only one start in season.
Start Season 2, 19 years old. Kitson-Doyle start. Kitson injured so it's Kitson-Lita
Start Season 3, 20 years old. Tough season in a relegation year. Kitson-Doyle first choices. Long is 3rd striker. Lita has blown it big time.
Start Season 4, 21 years old. Doyle is having a great season, Noel Hunt is scoring for fun. Long s 3rd striker, regularly comes on for 25-30 minutes

[Snowball]

You can't include assists snowball, as discussed on the 'Assists' thread on this board, there are more facets to an assist than making the final pass, or getting fouled.

Rubbish!They've been doing it every day arguing Steve Hunt's case.

Fabregas scores, say, five in a full season, but makes 20 goals (so he's crap?)

The assists I've mentioned have been totally clear-cut winning of penalties
or incidents where the reading Official web-site has made a special point
of praising the youngsters part in the goal.

We are not merely talking "last touch" or a flick-on or a rebound

We are talking goals he clearly made.

[Snowball]

Now I quite like a bit of research and evidence to back up a point....but...Snowball, do you have either of a) a job, or b) a life?


I'm a writer, at home and I like being outnumbered. You're all blinkered.

[West Stand Man]

You do have to wonder, if Long is as good as Snowball says he is, why have no other teams been in for him.

You make the rash assumption that none have. Just because the club haven't announced it doesn't mean they haven't had queries does it?

"Is Long available"
"Maybe"
"What price"
"£x"
"Thanks"
Can't see why that would be reported.

[Snowball]

Its easy to have a high goals per minute ratio when you hardly play any minutes.

That is so DUMB!

He has to SCORE the damn goals, and he does. 20 starts, 11 goals, and a very decent goals-per-minute

People go on and on and on about Lita yet he has scored 11-7-1-1, a mere 9 goals more than Long

But Lita had a TWENTY-NINE game start on Long who didn't debut (as a sub) until December 28th (game 30)

or put it another way, compare them for the last three seasons

The last 3 seasons for Reading

60 Starts 07 sub = 61.4 games 19 goals = 3.23 games per goal - LITA (including Charlton and Norwich starts)

35 Starts 07 sub = 36.4 games 09 goals = 4.04 games per goal - LITA (Reading appearances only)
19 Starts 54 sub = 29.8 games 08 goals = 3.73 games per goal - LONG

Lita has started more than 3.16 times as many games as Long but has scored 2.38 as many goals

There is no way we can expect a player to shine if he gets on for 2-10 minutes.
It may officially be an appearance, but it's not really a fair way to judge a player

Multiply 8 by 3.16 you get 25 goals from Long.

[Hoop Blah]

As a lover of stats, have you looked at the proportion of goals that are scored in the last 15/20 minutes of games?

Think you'll find more goals are scored in that period than the rest....have you weighted that into your analysis?

[Baines]

If it wasn't for the fact that when Long plays he looks a bit shit, I'd agree with everything you say, Snowball.

(PS - are you gus's (or someone else's) latest incarnation? This is fantastic wum-ing, even down to the little details like leaving in the Arsenal line to get Spacey's attention.)

[Platypuss]

Snowball. If Long is as hot a property as you say, then why did Steve Coppell say:

"Longy needs to do it now or move on".

Sorry to repeat it, but you seem to be deliberately ignoring this.

[cmonurz]

You can't include assists snowball, as discussed on the 'Assists' thread on this board, there are more facets to an assist than making the final pass, or getting fouled.

Rubbish!They've been doing it every day arguing Steve Hunt's case.

Fabregas scores, say, five in a full season, but makes 20 goals (so he's crap?)

The assists I've mentioned have been totally clear-cut winning of penalties
or incidents where the reading Official web-site has made a special point
of praising the youngsters part in the goal.

We are not merely talking "last touch" or a flick-on or a rebound

We are talking goals he clearly made.

Those two players you mention are midfielders.

[Royal Rother]

Oops! Here comes another stat...