The RUN-IN

[Snowball]

Leaving it down to the top ten there are 90 games to play, meaning 270 points available.

But there are 16 six-pointers, so there are only 222 TOTAL points available. For every draw in the six-pointers, that 222 drops by one more point.

So if every one of the top ten achieved the same "perfect" points they'd average 2.44 a game 20 points from 9 games average. This would mean winning every game and winning half of their six pointers

That is never going to happen though. Many of the six-pointers may be draws, all of them draws = dropping the available points to 206, about 20.6 each (for 9 games) but as an absolute maximum.

With so many games between the top ten I cannot see more than one club managing 2 points a game from here on in. 2 a game would give this table. The best-placed club is Wolves as they have only one six-pointer. You have to fancy them for the top-spot now.

This is a final table based on a virtually impossible two-points a game for all clubs. Of course any club putting a run together could do a lot of damage to other clubs. Bristol, for example could hurt Cardif, Swansea, Burnley, Preston & Ipswich. Sheffield ~Utd could "do" us.

87 Wolves
84 Reading

84 Birmingham
81 Cardiff
78 Sheff Utd
75 Swansea

75 Burnley
73 Preston
73 Bristol
69 Ipswich

Of course, that scenario would suggest we would be on 82 along with Birmingham, going into the last game against them!

[Snowball]

Here are the remaining six-pointers

Bristol Cardiff
Ipswich Burnley
Cardiff Sheffield Utd
Bristol Preston
Sheff Utd Ipswich
Cardiff Swansea
Birmingham Wolves
READING Sheff Utd
Bristol City Ipswich
Cardiff Burnley
Burnley Sheff Utd
Preston Cardiff
Swansea Bristol City
Sheff Utd Swansea
Burnley Bristol City
READING Birmingham

BRISTOL 8 Games Left, 5 are HUGE

Bristol Ipswich
Bristol Cardiff
Bristol Preston
Burnley Bristol
Swansea Bristol

CARDIFF 4 BIGGIES FROM 11

Cardiff Sheffield Utd
Cardiff Swansea
Bristol Cardiff
Preston Cardiff

SWANSEA, 3 BIGGIES FROM 9

Swansea Bristol City
Cardiff Swansea
Sheff Utd Swansea

SHEFFIELD UNITED FOUR BIGGIES FROM 9 LEFT

Sheff Utd Ipswich
Sheff Utd Swansea
Burnley Sheff Utd
READING Sheff Utd


BURNLEY 4 BIG ONES IN 10

Burnley Bristol City
Burnley Sheff Utd
Cardiff Burnley
Ipswich Burnley

PRESTON JUST A COUPLE LEFT (8 TO PLAY)

Preston Cardiff
Bristol Preston

[SteveRoyal]

cba to read.

[Snowball]

I see we've dropped to 2/1 second favourites for the title

6/4 Wolves (I wouldn't back it but a reasonable bet)
2/1 Reading (I wouldn't touch that price with a bargepole)
11/4 Birmingham (and it's in their hands, virtually)
13/2 Cardiff (horrible odds, they have to win 3 games in hand to be 3 points behind Wolves with 8 to go.)
33/1 Swansea (stupid odds. They have to gain 14 points and GD in 9 games?)
40/1 Sheffield United (a squeak, not likely, but a good price)
66/1 Bristol (Need to gain 14 points in 8 games, yeah right. I'd want 1,000-1)

[Top Flight]

Here are the remaining six-pointers

Bristol Cardiff
Ipswich Burnley
Cardiff Sheffield Utd
Bristol Preston
Sheff Utd Ipswich
Cardiff Swansea
Birmingham Wolves
READING Sheff Utd
Bristol City Ipswich
Cardiff Burnley
Burnley Sheff Utd
Preston Cardiff
Swansea Bristol City
Sheff Utd Swansea
Burnley Bristol City
READING Birmingham

BRISTOL 8 Games Left, 5 are HUGE

Bristol Ipswich
Bristol Cardiff
Bristol Preston
Burnley Bristol
Swansea Bristol

CARDIFF 4 BIGGIES FROM 11

Cardiff Sheffield Utd
Cardiff Swansea
Bristol Cardiff
Preston Cardiff

SWANSEA, 3 BIGGIES FROM 9

Swansea Bristol City
Cardiff Swansea
Sheff Utd Swansea

SHEFFIELD UNITED FOUR BIGGIES FROM 9 LEFT

Sheff Utd Ipswich
Sheff Utd Swansea
Burnley Sheff Utd
READING Sheff Utd


BURNLEY 4 BIG ONES IN 10

Burnley Bristol City
Burnley Sheff Utd
Cardiff Burnley
Ipswich Burnley

PRESTON JUST A COUPLE LEFT (8 TO PLAY)

Preston Cardiff
Bristol Preston

Are there 6 points available then if you win one of those 6 pointer games?

[Arch]

No

['lista]

Are there 6 points available then if you win one of those 6 pointer games?

No, the term 'Six Pointer' originated in Ireland.

When the quality of football on display was of such an extremely dull and uninspiring nature, the exasperated supporter would be forced to neck 'six points' (or more) of Guinness in an attempt to get so shit-faced they could no longer remember their own names let alone comprehend the debacle unfolding on the pitch.

Alas, I fear the remaining Reading home games this season will all be 'six pointers'.

[Son of Len]

Looks like we're up a creek. How are we going to gain points if only 2 of our final games are against top ten teams?* We're doomed.




* I have no stats to back up the assertion that we can only win games against good teams while dropping points against lower teams. It just feels that way!

[moo]

So if every one of the top ten achieved the same "perfect" points they'd average 2.44 a game 20 points from 9 games average. This would mean winning every game and winning half of their six pointers

That is never going to happen though.

I got a C in GCSE maths and know this isn't quite mathmatically correct. Why will it never happen?

[Terminal Boardom]

9 games left

Ipswich, Barnsley, Birmingham and Blunts at home
palace, Derby, Donny, Naaaaarwich and Blackpool away

We are not going to get automatic promotion. We are not good enough. We do not play with enough pace, passion or invention. We are as predictable as a predictable thing!

I just hope that we get beaten in the semis of the play-offs as I do not fancy our chances against the likes of Swansea, Cardiff or Donny in the final. It is also easier to get over a semi final defeat. I still can't wear Reebok!

[Mid Sussex Royal]

This thread is too technical.

Basically to go up now we will have to beat or at very best avoid defeat against Birmingham. It is very unlikely even given the games in hand that we will get 3 points clear of them by this game.

So to be in with a chance of going up we need to make up at least one point on them between now and the last game - very possible given the run ins and our games in hand.

forget Cardiff for automatic promotion - injuries and limited squad cover and too many games.

[Mike Hunt]

May I ask why they are called 6 pointers ?

[Snowball]

So if every one of the top ten achieved the same "perfect" points they'd average 2.44 a game 20 points from 9 games average. This would mean winning every game and winning half of their six pointers

That is never going to happen though.

I got a C in GCSE maths and know this isn't quite mathmatically correct. Why will it never happen?

Because I will dance naked on the pitch if it does,
and I can assure you, if it gets close there will be a glut of deliberate own-goals

[Snowball]

May I ask why they are called 6 pointers ?

IF you are serious and this isn't a wind-up...


Reading meet, say Sheffield United and before the game they are both on 75 points


If Reading win they are now 3 points ahead
If Reading lose they are 3 points behind

That's a six point relative difference. Hence "six-pointer"

[Snowball]

This thread is too technical.

Basically to go up now we will have to beat or at very best avoid defeat against Birmingham. It is very unlikely even given the games in hand that we will get 3 points clear of them by this game. So to be in with a chance of going up we need to make up at least one point on them between now and the last game - very possible given the run ins and our games in hand. forget Cardiff for automatic promotion - injuries and limited squad cover and too many games.

We could beat Ipswich on Saturday and Birmingham lose at Doncaster then we'd be a point behind with two games in hand.

Birmingham could easily lose versus Wolves, and if we were to win that weekend we'd be two points in front STILL with two games in hand. Win the two games in hand and we could be going into that last game 8 points clear if we have managed to match the rest of their results.

There is nothing exceptional in that scenario, other than beating a mid-table side at home (that plays 4-5-1).... ah...

[Snowball]

9 games left

Ipswich, Barnsley, Birmingham and Blunts at home
palace, Derby, Donny, Naaaaarwich and Blackpool away

We are not going to get automatic promotion. We are not good enough. We do not play with enough pace, passion or invention. We are as predictable as a predictable thing!

I just hope that we get beaten in the semis of the play-offs as I do not fancy our chances against the likes of Swansea, Cardiff or Donny in the final. It is also easier to get over a semi final defeat. I still can't wear Reebok!

It could turn round in 95 minutes.

We lose to Ipswich and Birmingham win at Donny, suddenly it's a 7 point gap with two in hand and we have to win both to be back in the hunt. Then we'd probably lose at Donny.

But we win decently v Ipswich and Brum lose at Donny, suddenly we are ONE point behind with two games in hand. Only needing one point from 2 games we'd then get 4 or 6

[Snowball]

Be afraid, be very afraid

Last season with approximately 8 games to go, this was the table. WBA were a fair bit back with games in hand. Right behind them was Charlton in 5th!

1 38 67 Bristol City
2 38 66 Stoke City
3 37 63 Watford
4 35 61 WBA
5 38 56 Charlton
6 36 56 Hull City
7 38 55 Plymouth
8 38 55 Burnley
9 37 53 Ipswich Town

1 46 81 WBA
2 46 79 Stoke City

3 46 75 Hull City
4 46 74 Bristol City
5 46 71 Crystal Palace
6 46 70 Watford

7 46 70 Wolves
8 46 69 Ipswich Town
9 46 66 Sheffield Utd
10 46 64 Plymouth


What went wrong? Plymouth went right off the boil, along with Charlton but Burnley and Watford imploded!

Pts PL Avg
19 10 1.90 Hull City
20 11 1.82 WBA
16 09 1.78 Ipswich Town
14 08 1.75 Bristol City
13 08 1.63 Stoke City
09 08 1.13 Plymouth
08 08 1.00 Charlton
07 08 0.88 Burnley
07 09 0.78 Watford

[Snowball]

The Last Two Seasons

This time last year

38 67 Bristol City
38 66 Stoke City
37 63 Watford
35 61 WBA
38 56 Charlton
36 56 Hull City
38 55 Plymouth
38 55 Burnley
37 53 Ipswich Town

and now

38 71 Wolves
38 68 Birmingham
36 64 Reading
37 60 Sheffield Utd
35 59 Cardiff City
37 57 Swansea City
38 57 Bristol City
38 57 Preston
36 55 Burnley
37 51 Ipswich Town

Wolves and Birmingham are 4 points and two points ahead of last year's 1-2 at the same time;
Reading are a point better off than last year's then-third but with a game in hand

Sheffield United, currently 4th. are a point worse off than WBA was but have played two games more

All things being equal, this top three is the final top three.

[Mike Hunt]

May I ask why they are called 6 pointers ?

IF you are serious and this isn't a wind-up...


Reading meet, say Sheffield United and before the game they are both on 75 points


If Reading win they are now 3 points ahead
If Reading lose they are 3 points behind

That's a six point relative difference. Hence "six-pointer"

Thanks Snowball.

Sorry for the naievity. But that was not a wind-up

[Royal With Cheese]

87 Wolves
84 Reading

84 Birmingham

Of course, that scenario would suggest we would be on 82 along with Birmingham, going into the last game against them!

Point of order Mr Statistician, I'm not sure the "two points for a draw" rule has been introduced to the football league yet.