What is the point in HRK

[Snowball]

This is so transparent it almost hurts.

1. Snowball predicted great things for HRK in the Championship on the back of our Prem foray
2. It hasn't happened.
3. Cue wallsoftext plaintively trying to argue that black=white.

FIN.

NOPE.

He IS disappointing, but so are the rest of the squad, and when compared
to the rest of the squad, despite being in and out of the side, and played
in various roles, HRK comes out in 4th place for the whole squad.

Which is why the manager picks him.

Absolutely nothing I've posted is trying to "excuse" any apparent failings
in HRK. Of course I thought he'd do better, but that's not the point here.

The point here is he is the current scapegoat and the FACTS of his performances
show he's doing OK, just not so prettily as some

[paddy20]

I've put a few "old favourites" in the list for comparison.

Off the players currently at the club and have played 10+ games, HRK is fourth overall in terms of minutes played for a goal or assist, just 30 minutes behind our current top player Cox, 29 behind McCleary, 18 behind Mackie.

He is more useful (in terms of goals and/or assists per minute played than Pog, Blackman, Taylor, Norwood, Akpan, Williams, Guthrie

197 Appearances 53 Goals 35 Assists 02 G/A 10981 Minutes 0125 Mins/G-A Shane Long
006 Appearances 01 Goals 00 Assists 01 G/A 00185 Minutes 0185 Mins/G-A Yakubu
190 Appearances 31 Goals 45 Assists 76 G/A 14316 Minutes 0188 Mins/G-A Jimmy Kebe
043 Appearances 08 Goals 06 Assists 14 G/A 02668 Minutes 0191 Mins/G-A Simon Cox
099 Appearances 09 Goals 24 Assists 33 G/A 06333 Minutes 0192 Mins/G-A Garath McLeary
157 Appearances 55 Goals 11 Assists 66 G/A 12700 Minutes 0192 Mins/G-A Kevin Doyle
029 Appearances 05 Goals 03 Assists 08 G/A 01625 Minutes 0203 Mins/G-A Jamie Mackie
185 Appearances 24 Goals 19 Assists 43 G/A 09521 Minutes 0221 Mins/G-A Hal Robson-Kanu

099 Appearances 25 Goals 06 Assists 31 G/A 07100 Minutes 0229 Mins/G-A Pogrebnyak
079 Appearances 09 Goals 05 Assists 14 G/A 03336 Minutes 0238 Mins/G-A Blackman
035 Appearances 03 Goals 03 Assists 06 G/A 01560 Minutes 0260 Mins/G-A Taylor
206 Appearances 16 Goals 44 Assists 60 G/A 17463 Minutes 0291 Mins/GA Jobi McAnuff
015 Appearances 02 Goals 00 Assists 02 G/A 00657 Minutes 0329 Mins/G-A Cooper
034 Appearances 01 Goals 06 Assists 07 G/A 02717 Minutes 0388 Mins/G-A Norwood

021 Appearances 01 Goals 06 Assists 07 G/A 03359 Minutes 0480 Mins/G-A Hope Akpan
167 Appearances 11 Goals 15 Assists 26 G/A 12870 Minutes 0495 Mins/G-A Karacan
079 Appearances 01 Goals 12 Assists 13 G/A 06756 Minutes 0520 Mins/G-A Obita <<<<<<<<<

108 Appearances 08 Goals 05 Assists 13 G/A 07092 Minutes 0546 Mins/G-A Bobby Convey
068 Appearances 04 Goals 04 Assists 08 G/A 04814 Minutes 0602 Mins/G-A Guthrie
057 Appearances 04 Goals 02 Assists 06 G/A 04319 Minutes 0720 Mins/G-A Williams
231 Appearances 15 Goals 10 Assists 25 G/A 19773 Minutes 0791 Mins/G-A Pearce
048 Appearances 02 Goals 02 Assists 04 G/A 03845 Minutes 0961 Mins/G-A Hector
012 Appearances 01 Goals 00 Assists 01 G/A 00981 Minutes 0981 Mins/G-A Chalobah
103 Appearances 02 Goals 05 Assists 07 G/A 09140 Minutes 1306 Mins/G-A Gunter <<<<<<<
051 Appearances 01 Goals 01 Assists 02 G/A 03974 Minutes 1987 Mins/G-A Kelly

Great work Snowball BUT 'Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.' (Aaron Levenstein) Ha ha

[Snowball]

Great work Snowball BUT 'Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.' (Aaron Levenstein) Ha ha

That's like these platitudinous quotes on Facebook. Looks clever, but in the end pretty much meaningless.

So know you're implying, that judgement of HRK (or any player) is a magical art
that can never be quantified. It's just all gut feeling, intuition, instinct.


The realities are fans almost always miss the ordinary stuff, the player filling the hole
so the opposition can't run there, the keeper so well-positioned he never seems to
have to make a difficult save (etc)


Ditto, when a midfielder does solidly well for 89 minutes but at some point
plays a horror-pass to the opposition and suddenly, for that one moment's lapse, the
8 he was getting becomes a 6. And if the opposition score from the error 8 becomes a 4.

Human beings note the sharp bits, not the solid. They note the goal-scorer more
than the brilliant support striker who took two defenders away


There was a game last season (away) can't remember who against, but we won.

Williams (I think) went on a dummy run on the right of the box
while signalling an inside pass to another player. Result goal. The
other two players got the assist/goal but Williams did brilliantly.

[paddy20]

Great work Snowball BUT 'Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.' (Aaron Levenstein) Ha ha

That's like these platitudinous quotes on Facebook. Looks clever, but in the end pretty much meaningless.

So know you're implying, that judgement of HRK (or any player) is a magical art
that can never be quantified. It's just all gut feeling, intuition, instinct.


The realities are fans almost always miss the ordinary stuff, the player filling the hole
so the opposition can't run there, the keeper so well-positioned he never seems to
have to make a difficult save (etc)


Ditto, when a midfielder does solidly well for 89 minutes but at some point
plays a horror-pass to the opposition and suddenly, for that one moment's lapse, the
8 he was getting becomes a 6. And if the opposition score from the error 8 becomes a 4.

Human beings note the sharp bits, not the solid. They note the goal-scorer more
than the brilliant support striker who took two defenders away


There was a game last season (away) can't remember who against, but we won.

Williams (I think) went on a dummy run on the right of the box
while signalling an inside pass to another player. Result goal. The
other two players got the assist/goal but Williams did brilliantly.

Sorry can't agree. Most fans that have been watching football for some time do have a pretty good idea between an average to poor player and a good player. If you take business for example some of the worst run companies are run by accountants who tend to make all the decisions based on excel spreadsheets etc etc. How many top entrepreneurs do you know that are accountants? Judgement on a player must be made on more than facts and figures as we all know that statistics can prove pretty much anything if you want them to.

[Victor Meldrew]

Good post Paddy.
What snowball hasn't taken into account is the 50/50 challenges or up to 70/30 where Kanu bottles it and gives the opposition space and time to make a pass.
That is what we see week-in week -out (to a lesser extent Blackman as well but he doesn't get to play so much) and to some extent McCleary but at least McCleary does track back and try to close down whereas Kanu tracks back slowly, points to Obita and usually lets his man have an uncontested run.
Church had loads of chances, as has Kanu and whereas as players that have come through our system we want them to do well eventually you give up on them.
With horses they are often gelded or get blinkers fitted-that might be a bit extreme for Kanu but he already satisfies the first requirement, i.e. no balls so it has to be blinkers or cheekpieces to try to get more out of him.

[Snowball]

Sorry can't agree. Most fans that have been watching football for some time do have a pretty good idea between an average to poor player and a good player. If you take business for example some of the worst run companies are run by accountants who tend to make all the decisions based on excel spreadsheets etc etc. How many top entrepreneurs do you know that are accountants? Judgement on a player must be made on more than facts and figures as we all know that statistics can prove pretty much anything if you want them to.

Top entrepreneurs HIRE accountants.

Alan Sugar is brilliant and pointing out that there's no profit in there. The Dragon's den people are PRECISELY "accountants" quick to see the difference between "pretty idea" and money-making idea. They just do their accounting on the fly, intuitively.

I have never disputed that judgements on a player are NOT ONLY statistics, but I object to scapegoat of the month stuff. It's HRK ATM, has been Blackman, Akpan, Gunter, Guthrie. It's BLATHER from fans, many of which have probably never played.

The stats are about, "Hang on a minute, this guy scores goals, or this guy gets loads of assists, even if you don't like him."

I'm originally from Newport and remember John Aldridge joining us from South Liverpool. He got goals almost straight away and every one was ugly, off his knee, his arse, the side of his head.

Then they took him out of the first team and stuck him with the reserves playing in the Welsh League. When he came back he seemed to have lost all his natural instincts and couldn't score.

THEN, the drills, the learning gradually re-combined with his natural talent and he started to score so much that he was sold, first to Oxford, then to Liverpool.

But the fans were screaming in the middle bit, how we had RUINED the player, had coached the instinct out of him etc.


Fans don't know much. Antonio, Long, Rosenior, Mills

[Victor Meldrew]

Ah, it's because he is Welsh that you are trying to make out a case for Kanu.
Whatever happened to the strong Welsh players?
Now we get softies like Kanu, Gunter and Church at our club-can we have more of the hardened souls please?

[Linden Jones' Tash]

First of all, thanks for the stats, Snowball, I enjoy them and find them a valuable part of the debate. They certainly helped temper my initial reticence towards Long.

My sense with HRK is that he is a footballer who has all the attributes and should be tearing this division apart and therefore is held to a higher standard, hence the disappointment that he is ordinary in an ordinary side.

I saw him play years ago in a preseason game at Didcot Town and remember thinking that we had a special player here....but we've been here before...James lambert anyone...


I also agree that he seems to have bulked up and lost some explosiveness in his runs.

Oh, and his best position is through the middle running from deep.

[Linden Jones' Tash]

Also, I'm reassured that the stats reassure me in my views of Gunter. ...

He may be a 'great athlete', but that doesn't make him an effective footballer

[Snowball]

Good post Paddy.
What snowball hasn't taken into account is the 50/50 challenges or up to 70/30 where Kanu bottles it and gives the opposition space and time to make a pass. That is what we see week-in week -out (to a lesser extent Blackman as well but he doesn't get to play so much) a.

PERFECT example, where opinion is countered by the stats

They have played an almost identical number of minutes.

1,573 Minutes Championship - - - 1,902 Minutes, All Games HRK
1,538 Minutes Championship - - - 1,863 Minutes, All Games Blackman

[Snowball]

First of all, thanks for the stats, Snowball, I enjoy them and find them a valuable part of the debate. They certainly helped temper my initial reticence towards Long.

Yer welcome

My sense with HRK is that he is a footballer who has all the attributes and should be tearing this division apart and therefore is held to a higher standard, hence the disappointment that he is ordinary in an ordinary side.

Agree with this. I do think he's too bulky for football.

Quite possible he's lacking confidence (especially if he reads HobNob)

I saw him play years ago in a preseason game at Didcot Town and remember thinking that we had a special player here....but we've been here before...James lambert anyone...

I remember him playing in the Far East for RFC when he was about 18,
and some of his goals in The Premier League were special.

But we never know what happens to a player's mentality, body,
family life. I remember when Cardiff were going to buy him and thinking,
"No, please, no!" (Yes, I'm aware of being straight man for the comedians)

Maybe, just maybe, his bump up in money altered his mentality

Oh, and his best position is through the middle running from deep

Yep.

[Snowball]

I realise that HRK hasn't always been left wing (and in front of Obita), and it's not every time that McCleary has been paired with Gunter

but it's interesting to consider "left attack versus right attack" (I know this is VERY rough)

The Gunter with McCleary stat is quite close to reality, whereas HRK has played centrally
and when playing left wing has not always played in front of Obita

But if you think left-attack v right-attack, these are interesting stats.

For one thing, my subjective, unstatted opinion was that "most of our goals" came from right-wing attacks
rather than left-wing attacks, but it's simply NOT the case. When you combine the figures for the full-back
with the winger, the COMBO stats are revealing




264 Appearances 25 Goals 31 Assists = 56 G/A in 16,278 Minutes = 291 Minutes per Goal/Assist LEFT - "Obita- HRK"
202 Appearances 11 Goals 29 Assists = 40 G/A in 15,473 Minutes = 386 Minutes per Goal/Assist RIGHT "Gunter-McCleary"

The appearances should really be averaged out and the mins goal/assist should really be halved as they are "both playing"

132 Appearances 25 Goals 31 Assists = 56 G/A in 8,139 Minutes = 146 Minutes per Goal/Assist "Obita- HRK"
101 Appearances 11 Goals 29 Assists = 40 G/A in 7,737 Minutes = 193 Minutes per Goal/Assist "Gunter-McCleary"

[Ian Royal]

snowball appears to have regressed back into proper autistic mental after mellowing for a while.

[Platypuss]

Absolutely nothing I've posted is trying to "excuse" any apparent failings
in HRK.

Well quite - it's YOUR failings that you're trying to handwave away.

[Snowball]

snowball appears to have regressed back into proper autistic mental after mellowing for a while.

Shove your radio up your rectum, toe-rag

[Snowball]

Absolutely nothing I've posted is trying to "excuse" any apparent failings
in HRK.

Well quite - it's YOUR failings that you're trying to handwave away.

You're talking bollocks again (why am I not surprised?)

I haven't tried to explain ANYTHING away. This is just Shane Long all over again,
a few hundred morons who just "know" everything, until, eventually they are proved wrong

[Ian Royal]

Tell us again how Long is a 10 goal a season man in the PL...

[Royal Lady]

Tell us again how Long is a 10 goal a season man in the PL...

Did noël hunt get his 15 goals for us the other season Ian?

[ladida_gunner_graham]

Absolutely nothing I've posted is trying to "excuse" any apparent failings
in HRK.

Well quite - it's YOUR failings that you're trying to handwave away.

You're talking bollocks again (why am I not surprised?)

I haven't tried to explain ANYTHING away. This is just Shane Long all over again,
a few hundred morons who just "know" everything, until, eventually they are proved wrong

I think the point is that HRK is having a noticeably poor season. Not many here are saying that he will NEVER be a good player, rather that he should contribute much more than he does. Stats do tell a story, but when we see a poor first touch followed by a misplaced pass, then being tackled leaving us vulnerable on the counter, this may not always show on the basic stats, but we remember. I take your point about other players coming good, but even if HRK a starts playing well in the 2018/19 season, most of the negative comments on this thread are still currently valid. He's not the only disappointment in the squad, but he's a major candidate for criticism.

[Ian Royal]

Tell us again how Long is a 10 goal a season man in the PL...

Did noël hunt get his 15 goals for us the other season Ian?

Nope. Pog & ALF didn't get 30 last season either.