Coronavirus outbreak

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Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 12:07

SCIAG
Snowball The spread of MERS was ONLY in hospitals and required PROLONGED contact with an infected person, so drop that off your argument.

We didn’t see anything REMOTELY like this governmental reaction when SARS reared its head.

I don’t claim to be a virologist or an academic researcher but I CAN read and I’m only quoting official sources.

My analysis is just my analysis, something any reasonably-educated person could do.

It is FARCICAL to think the Chinese lock-down idea is the answer. If it was that easy, we could just shut everything down for three months, let the virus die, and all live happily-ever-after.

Your analysis gets basic epidemiology wrong and indeed calls it farcical.

If you stop transmission then unless the pathogen has a natural reservoir or can lie dormant, then the disease stops.

This is not farcical, it is a basic fact.

The reason total lockdown wouldn’t actually work perfectly is not biological, it’s economic, behavioural, and political. Total quarantine except for food delivery services would be unacceptable and would have knock-on effects.

In fairness you seem to be getting a better grip on the numbers, but you are completely failing to relate them to the real world.

I did one epidemiology module at university. I wouldn’t claim to be an expert but I can tell when someone is bullshitting.


I am not BULLSHITTING. I am reading very widely from 99% official sources,
some URLs posted here. The only unofficial source I have used is the medical teacher

The Government's Chief Scientific Advisor stated yesterday, to a Parliamentary Committee,
broadcast on TV that we will see a reinfection spike after lockdown finishes

South Korea yesterday after their much-lauded Draconian Test Regime etc
just announced new pockets and 97 NEW confirmed cases in a single day

Even under Lockdown in UK there are 5 MILLION essential workers presumably
going out, mingling, bringing stuff home. The virus is in the animal kingdom and
can migrate freshly

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Snowflake Royal
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowflake Royal » 18 Mar 2020 12:17

CountryRoyal
Snowflake Royal
URZZZZ
At least you may end up saving money on your Charlton top half finish :lol:

Only if one of us dies, I pay up.

Ooooo! Or the season is voided! Get in! You're right!!!


It was for charity IIRC Ian.

Definitely if I won, thought I was handing cash to you, but if you want to nominate a charity I'll donate now.

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Snowflake Royal
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowflake Royal » 18 Mar 2020 12:20

CountryRoyal
Snowball I've started videoing from my isolation-flat.

Thatcham is (so far) more or less as busy.

Free Car Park in Thatcham Broadway full. At 10 AM on a Sunday it's empty

Doesn't look like people are taking this seriously (yet)


I beg to differ I think a lot of people are shitting themselves now.

It’s stupid, everyone should get it, kill the oldies and ease pressure on NHS. Some youth will suffer too but ultimately not enough to warrant the impending global recession which is inevitable if this continues for much longer. Cynical but true.

The problem is, if everyone gets it now, loads of people with otherwise treatable conditions or injuries who would otherwise be ok will die because the NHS is overloaded. That's young and old.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Millsy » 18 Mar 2020 12:24

CountryRoyal
2 world wars, 1 world cup Ok here's something interesting.

It's a far fetched one and I admit I like to believe there is something to it, but I don't know.

I have suspected (and still do) that coronavirus has been around since before Xmas (I've had the most awful strange symptoms, totally out of character for me, even had to go home early one day which is unheard of- never ever take time off, have to be dying) and that the numbers already infected are much higher than we think.

I looked up some stats a couple of days ago and found that in all countries confirmed cases vs deaths seems to be around the 4% mark which is indeed VERY worrying compared to normal flu.

BUT

Numbers from Sweden, Germany, Norway yield only a 0.2% mortality rate, whcih would seem to be in keeping with the normal flu.

Now I knwo it's wishful thinking BUT using my full force of racist/ignorant/stereotypical thinking, the Germans and Scandies are probably much better at this sort of this in terms of numbers and have probably tested more effectively than us and might have picked up many more of the mild cases than we have. THIS IS TOTAL SPECULATION. But it does seem odd that these three countries, at the time I looked, seemed to be comign up with very reasonable numbers.

I know I'm clutching at straws here but it is not out of the question that I have had coronavirus, along with my whole family who were strangely unwell over the Xmas period and beyond and that there was a huge number of untested people.

It would be great to have some sort of IgG test asap to get everyone tested with to check the extent of herd immunity currently around and et more reasonable stats.

#I am not an expert and not pretending to be#


Not far fetched at all. I can attest to other people i know who seldom get sick having symptoms before Christmas around the late November time. It wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of people have had it. The most annoying thing about all this is that the numbers are bullshit. All this reaction based on a “1%” mortality rate. It’s not. That 1% is based on AT RISK people or those that they’re ACTUALLY TESTING, and that accounts for a tiny percentage of people that actually have it or have had it. For the vast majority the symptoms are so mild that most people would never even know.


Spot on.

Having said that though... with the very imperfect stats we have at the moment and the reaction the way it is at the moment, we all need to remain cautious as we are.

But what we DON'T need to be doing, and the reason I tried to just apply a bit of perspective as above, is going crazy about the VERY imperfect stats that are available and fear-mongering beyond the caution we are already demonstrating.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SCIAG » 18 Mar 2020 12:29

Snowball
SCIAG
Snowball The spread of MERS was ONLY in hospitals and required PROLONGED contact with an infected person, so drop that off your argument.

We didn’t see anything REMOTELY like this governmental reaction when SARS reared its head.

I don’t claim to be a virologist or an academic researcher but I CAN read and I’m only quoting official sources.

My analysis is just my analysis, something any reasonably-educated person could do.

It is FARCICAL to think the Chinese lock-down idea is the answer. If it was that easy, we could just shut everything down for three months, let the virus die, and all live happily-ever-after.

Your analysis gets basic epidemiology wrong and indeed calls it farcical.

If you stop transmission then unless the pathogen has a natural reservoir or can lie dormant, then the disease stops.

This is not farcical, it is a basic fact.

The reason total lockdown wouldn’t actually work perfectly is not biological, it’s economic, behavioural, and political. Total quarantine except for food delivery services would be unacceptable and would have knock-on effects.

In fairness you seem to be getting a better grip on the numbers, but you are completely failing to relate them to the real world.

I did one epidemiology module at university. I wouldn’t claim to be an expert but I can tell when someone is bullshitting.


I am not BULLSHITTING. I am reading very widely from 99% official sources,
some URLs posted here. The only unofficial source I have used is the medical teacher

The Government's Chief Scientific Advisor stated yesterday, to a Parliamentary Committee,
broadcast on TV that we will see a reinfection spike after lockdown finishes

South Korea yesterday after their much-lauded Draconian Test Regime etc
just announced new pockets and 97 NEW confirmed cases in a single day

Even under Lockdown in UK there are 5 MILLION essential workers presumably
going out, mingling, bringing stuff home. The virus is in the animal kingdom and
can migrate freshly

You may be reading official sources but you don’t understand them. And you certainly are bullshitting.

Vallance is working with the reality that is not a perfect model (as you say, we still have people getting food, we can’t tell easily if someone is a carrier, etc.) but in a perfect model where nobody moves around, the virus will stop circulating and after a sufficient period it will die out.

Any evidence the virus has infected British wildlife? Because that smells a lot like bullshit.


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Millsy » 18 Mar 2020 12:34

Snowball, I might've missed it but do you have your result yet?

I hope you have coronavirus.

(in a friendly way, for obvious reasons you've already stated!

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 12:37

SCIAG

Any evidence the virus has infected British wildlife? Because that smells a lot like bullshit.


Straw Man. I never MENTIONED British Wildlife

The various coronaviruses are widespread in the animal world
and every now and then they get transmitted to humans

Animals are routinely treated for coronaviruses but not all
coronaviruses are deadly



SARS was traced back to bats

MERS was traced back to Camels

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 12:44

2 world wars, 1 world cup Snowball, I might've missed it but do you have your result yet?

I hope you have coronavirus.

(in a friendly way, for obvious reasons you've already stated!



I have been praying I've got it.

But just heard, this morning I tested NEGATIVE on 9th March


I rang my doctor for advice (I still have headache, cough, lung issues)

Did I still need to self-isolate etc.

In no-uncertain terms he said he believes I DO (DID) have CV-19
and that "the efficacy of the test kit is very questionable"

I then Googled and apparently they are only catching 60% of positives.

There are zero false positives. (That means if you don't have CV the test won't say you do)

But there are a lot of false negatives. (You can have it but 40% of the time you will test negative)

I am now not infectious but my refugees are now officially confined to barracks for an extra week
and my usual refugee visitors are banned from the flat until June at the earliest.

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Sutekh
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Sutekh » 18 Mar 2020 13:08

So what are your thoughts as regards football getting back in operation.

Personally think it’s going to be June at the earliest before getting fans back to games.

I actually suspect the leagues/FA may resort to behind closed door games before then and also will consider scrapping FA Cup and playoffs. Next season not starting until September/October which may actually aid fitting the Qatar World Cup finals mess into the calendar in 2022.

Or will everything be voided and we start again with this season, next season.


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Millsy » 18 Mar 2020 13:10

Snowball
2 world wars, 1 world cup Snowball, I might've missed it but do you have your result yet?

I hope you have coronavirus.

(in a friendly way, for obvious reasons you've already stated!



I have been praying I've got it.

But just heard, this morning I tested NEGATIVE on 9th March


I rang my doctor for advice (I still have headache, cough, lung issues)

Did I still need to self-isolate etc.

In no-uncertain terms he said he believes I DO (DID) have CV-19
and that "the efficacy of the test kit is very questionable"

I then Googled and apparently they are only catching 60% of positives.

There are zero false positives. (That means if you don't have CV the test won't say you do)

But there are a lot of false negatives. (You can have it but 40% of the time you will test negative)

I am now not infectious but my refugees are now officially confined to barracks for an extra week
and my usual refugee visitors are banned from the flat until June at the earliest.


interesting. So is it n IgM test (i.e. will tell if you have very acute infection) rather than IgG (have had it past)? I'll look into it.

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Sutekh
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Sutekh » 18 Mar 2020 13:48

Sutekh So what are your thoughts as regards football getting back in operation.

Personally think it’s going to be June at the earliest before getting fans back to games.

I actually suspect the leagues/FA may resort to behind closed door games before then and also will consider scrapping FA Cup and playoffs. Next season not starting until September/October which may actually aid fitting the Qatar World Cup finals mess into the calendar in 2022.

Or will everything be voided and we start again with this season, next season.


Latest update

https://www.getreading.co.uk/sport/foot ... t-17942752

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 16:32

I managed to get an all-China total so I can now
see how many positives and deaths there are
outside China

These columns are

1 World including China
2 World excluding China
3 Death rates, World
4 Death Rates World excluding China

Just posting the Death Totals and the %age

6,513 ------ 3,276 ------ 3.85% ------ 3.71%
6,705 ------ 3,468 ------ 3.84% ------ 3.70%
6,705 ------ 3,468 ------ 3.83% ------ 3.69%
6,706 ------ 3,469 ------ 3.83% ------ 3.69%
6,706 ------ 3,469 ------ 3.83% ------ 3.68%
7,079 ------ 3,842 ------ 3.95% ------ 3.92%
7,118 ------ 3,881 ------ 3.92% ------ 3.87%
7,154 ------ 3,917 ------ 3.92% ------ 3.86%
7,158 ------ 3,921 ------ 3.91% ------ 3.84%
7,167 ------ 3,930 ------ 3.91% ------ 3.84%
7,505 ------ 4,268 ------ 3.96% ------ 3.94%
7,517 ------ 4,280 ------ 3.95% ------ 3.92%
7,864 ------ 4,627 ------ 4.05% ------ 4.09%
7,907 ------ 4,670 ------ 4.02% ------ 4.04%
7,954 ------ 4,717 ------ 4.01% ------ 4.03%
8,007 ------ 4,770 ------ 3.97% ------ 3.96%
8,205 ------ 4,968 ------ 4.03% ------ 4.05%
8,248 ------ 5,011 ------ 4.01% ------ 4.03%
8,281 ------ 5,044 ------ 3.97% ------ 3.96%

8,727 ------ 5,490 ------ 4.10% ------ 4.17% (Added)

These are 1Hr/2Hr snapshots but note that over time the death rate
appears to be growing, basically I think, because UK etc is catching
up to Italy, Iran and China


EDIT


Last Three Days UK

Cases
Deaths
Percentage


1,543 055 3.56%
1,950 071 3.64%
2,626 104 3.96%

Just three days but it seems, as predicted, that the percentage dying is creeping up

Italy is now over 8%
Last edited by Snowball on 18 Mar 2020 18:15, edited 2 times in total.

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 16:35

Does anyone know the official answer to this question?


Hypothetical (I have no grandparents)



My grandfather is very sick, likely to die in hospital.

Am I allowed to visit him before he dies?




Anyone know?


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Uke
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Uke » 18 Mar 2020 18:36

Snowball Does anyone know the official answer to this question?


Hypothetical (I have no grandparents)



My grandfather is very sick, likely to die in hospital.

Am I allowed to visit him before he dies?




Anyone know?


Yes, but only pretty much at the end

Then wash your hands

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SCIAG » 18 Mar 2020 21:18

Snowball
SCIAG

Any evidence the virus has infected British wildlife? Because that smells a lot like bullshit.


Straw Man. I never MENTIONED British Wildlife

The various coronaviruses are widespread in the animal world
and every now and then they get transmitted to humans

Animals are routinely treated for coronaviruses but not all
coronaviruses are deadly



SARS was traced back to bats

MERS was traced back to Camels

:roll:

Yes Snowy, believe it or not I know what a zoonose is.

You are arguing that extreme social distancing will be insufficient to halt COVID-19 in this country because, among other things, there is a wild reservoir.

As the wild reservoir isn’t even in this bloody country, and the leap to humans has only happened once and is unlikely to happen again any time soon, fretting about the wild reservoir makes no sense. It’s completely irrelevant.

God, and now once again you’re back to bullshitting with statistics. Think about it this way: you are most famous on here for being the guy who gets statistics wrong. If you can’t understand relatively simple sports statistics after following football for decades then how the oxf*rd are you going to understand epidemiological statistics after a few weeks of reading the Lancet and emails from JHU with zero guidance or training? At the very least sign up to an e-learning course.

Nothing against you Snowy, you just happen to be the worst offender. Just... learn your limits.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 21:33

SARS, Bats

MERS, Camels

Novel-Coronavirus covid-19 traced to animal market

3 out of 3

Bird Flu

4 out of 4

There are Coronaviruses common in many species including food animals.

Most of them are relative benign most of the time

It’s effortless to confirm this.

Theoretically, at any time, transmission time humans is possible.

Viruses mutate over time

Every year more or less we get new variants of seasonal flu, new mutations and a new annual vaccine.

Where do you suppose those viruses were, on holiday?

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 18 Mar 2020 21:34

Which stats are you disputing?

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Ascotexgunner » 18 Mar 2020 22:29

Sutekh So what are your thoughts as regards football getting back in operation.

Personally think it’s going to be June at the earliest before getting fans back to games.

I actually suspect the leagues/FA may resort to behind closed door games before then and also will consider scrapping FA Cup and playoffs. Next season not starting until September/October which may actually aid fitting the Qatar World Cup finals mess into the calendar in 2022.

Or will everything be voided and we start again with this season, next season.


Fingers crossed!!!! Voided, voided!!!! please please!!!! I'm praying voided.

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Lower West
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Lower West » 19 Mar 2020 00:09

Sutekh So what are your thoughts as regards football getting back in operation.

Personally think it’s going to be June at the earliest before getting fans back to games.

I actually suspect the leagues/FA may resort to behind closed door games before then and also will consider scrapping FA Cup and playoffs. Next season not starting until September/October which may actually aid fitting the Qatar World Cup finals mess into the calendar in 2022.

Or will everything be voided and we start again with this season, next season.


Peak is forecast in June. This is going to roll into next season. Difficult to see European Cup football until 2021-22 season.

Domestic leagues have to come first.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Linden Jones' Tash » 19 Mar 2020 08:37

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... sf-twitter

Looks like it doesn't discriminate after all

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