by Snowball » 05 Apr 2020 00:14
by Snowball » 05 Apr 2020 06:54
Snowball Cases very bad today, but deaths very fractionally down
102,897 New Cases (Up 23% on yesterday)
5,828 New Deaths (Down 1% on yesterday)
by tmesis » 05 Apr 2020 09:08
Lower WesttmesisZip
Yes. There is still ICU availability within the NHS at the moment which is a big positive. We are in surge and Italy appear to have peaked. Our hospitals don’t appear to be struggling to the same degree as Italy were a couple of weeks ago. A couple of grim weeks coming up but hopefully we will then be over the worst.
I think one problem in Italy was that cases were very concentrated in relatively small areas, whereas we seem to have a more even spread. Spain also had an incredibly high proportion in the Madrid area.
West Midlands recodrd higher deaths than London in past 24 hours. Some of this may be cultural, i.e. religous. Which does appear to be a reoccuring theme for some of the hotspots. France. Spain, Italy and India for eg. God will protect........
by sandman » 05 Apr 2020 09:35
tmesisLower Westtmesis I think one problem in Italy was that cases were very concentrated in relatively small areas, whereas we seem to have a more even spread. Spain also had an incredibly high proportion in the Madrid area.
West Midlands recodrd higher deaths than London in past 24 hours. Some of this may be cultural, i.e. religous. Which does appear to be a reoccuring theme for some of the hotspots. France. Spain, Italy and India for eg. God will protect........
It might also be a case of immigrant households having more people in than average.
As for "God will protect", the highest infection rate per capita? The Vatican.
by Snowball » 05 Apr 2020 15:13
by Snowball » 05 Apr 2020 15:18
by muirinho » 05 Apr 2020 15:54
Snowball
It should be noted that not all confirmed cases end up in hospital. Are there stats on Hospital admissions for Covid-19? If, for example, a third of confirmed cases DON'T go into hospital, then that would mean 31% of people being hospitalised are dying. If half manage not to go to hospital then the death rate for those going into hospital is 41%. Fearsome figures.
by Snowball » 05 Apr 2020 16:36
by muirinho » 05 Apr 2020 16:51
Snowball Thanks for that
27.8% ?
If only a third of UK confirmed cases are getting hospitalised and 20.6 of all CC’s are dying, that would mean 62% of people entering hospital were leaving in a box.
I hope to God it’s not as bad as that!
I really want to see a stat for number of confirmed cases being hospitalised
by Snowball » 05 Apr 2020 17:15
by Snowball » 05 Apr 2020 17:34
by Snowball » 05 Apr 2020 20:16
by Snowball » 05 Apr 2020 21:07
by Jagermesiter1871 » 05 Apr 2020 23:55
by leon » 06 Apr 2020 00:11
Snowball The algorithm predicts
22-Mar - - - Cases = 332,577 - - - 05-Apr - - - 69,281 Deaths @ 23:59 5th April
On 69,346 Deaths at 23:57
69,281 Predicted
69,346 Actual
by Snowball » 06 Apr 2020 00:13
leonSnowball The algorithm predicts
22-Mar - - - Cases = 332,577 - - - 05-Apr - - - 69,281 Deaths @ 23:59 5th April
On 69,346 Deaths at 23:57
69,281 Predicted
69,346 Actual
Snowball can you take a fcuking chill pill?
by leon » 06 Apr 2020 00:15
SnowballleonSnowball The algorithm predicts
22-Mar - - - Cases = 332,577 - - - 05-Apr - - - 69,281 Deaths @ 23:59 5th April
On 69,346 Deaths at 23:57
69,281 Predicted
69,346 Actual
Snowball can you take a fcuking chill pill?
I'm quite chilled, thanks.
by Dr_Hfuhruhurr » 06 Apr 2020 08:41
muirinho
Might be of interest looking at Ireland's figures. Of the 4,014 confirmed cases as of midnight 02/04/20, 1,118 required hospitalisation, i.e., 27.8%
158 of those 1118 required ICU treatment. (14.13% of hospitalised cases, 3.93% of confirmed cases)
Ireland are testing a lot more per head of population than the UK (they ran into a bit of a backlog in the last few days, so sent some 2000 or so tests to Germany to speed things up). So possibly the age profile of those tested is a bit different, and they are catching more confirmed cases with milder symptoms. Whereas in the UK it seems you have to be a royal, or be at deaths door, to get tested.
Data from here.
https://www.gov.ie/en/service/0039bc-vi ... dashboard/
by Hound » 06 Apr 2020 09:45
Dr_Hfuhruhurrmuirinho
Might be of interest looking at Ireland's figures. Of the 4,014 confirmed cases as of midnight 02/04/20, 1,118 required hospitalisation, i.e., 27.8%
158 of those 1118 required ICU treatment. (14.13% of hospitalised cases, 3.93% of confirmed cases)
Ireland are testing a lot more per head of population than the UK (they ran into a bit of a backlog in the last few days, so sent some 2000 or so tests to Germany to speed things up). So possibly the age profile of those tested is a bit different, and they are catching more confirmed cases with milder symptoms. Whereas in the UK it seems you have to be a royal, or be at deaths door, to get tested.
Data from here.
https://www.gov.ie/en/service/0039bc-vi ... dashboard/
Excellant webpage - Thanks for the link. Ive been looking for stats like this for a while.
The two problems with extrapolating from the UK data is that it is inherently biased towards severe cases for two reasons
1. The UK is taking the advice that unless you present with severe symptoms, hospitalisation will do nothing for you
2. To get a test, you basically have to go to a hospital.
This means our apparent death rate looks a lot worse than it is. I mean the absolute numbers are currently quite alarming, but the rates themselves are utterly meaningless. They arent even a fair reflection of how good the NHS is at keeping people alive.
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