by Millsy » 19 Mar 2013 23:08
by winchester_royal » 19 Mar 2013 23:10
2 world wars, 1 world cup I just wonder why people make so much of a deal about it. Is it really the case that odds might be changing because of a few ITKers' bets?
by Rax » 19 Mar 2013 23:14
by akranes » 19 Mar 2013 23:23
winchester_royal2 world wars, 1 world cup I just wonder why people make so much of a deal about it. Is it really the case that odds might be changing because of a few ITKers' bets?
Yes, basically.
The first signs we had that McDermott had gone was when his odds started tumbling and ultimately betting was suspended. It's never a sure thing, obviously, but at the moment it's as good an indicator as any we have to go on.
by Royal With Cheese » 19 Mar 2013 23:39
by akranes » 19 Mar 2013 23:42
Royal With Cheese As someone who doesn't bet they're completely irrelevant to me.
by Maguire » 20 Mar 2013 00:00
by Maguire » 20 Mar 2013 00:01
by akranes » 20 Mar 2013 00:23
Maguire This is one of the popular misconceptions about bookies.
They offer odds that, when all bets are settled, give them a profit. That's it. The market reacts to people placing bets, not what the bookies think will happen. As a previous poster said, they don't give a toss about what the actual outcome is.
by Ouroboros » 20 Mar 2013 00:27
Maguire This is one of the popular misconceptions about bookies.
They offer odds that, when all bets are settled, give them a profit. That's it. The market reacts to people placing bets, not what the bookies think will happen. As a previous poster said, they don't give a toss about what the actual outcome is.
by Maguire » 20 Mar 2013 00:31
OuroborosMaguire This is one of the popular misconceptions about bookies.
They offer odds that, when all bets are settled, give them a profit. That's it. The market reacts to people placing bets, not what the bookies think will happen. As a previous poster said, they don't give a toss about what the actual outcome is.
Except that they have to offer odds before bets are placed, so there is a judgement on outcomes at that stage - it's just reactive to their liability from then on.
by winchester_royal » 20 Mar 2013 00:38
OuroborosMaguire This is one of the popular misconceptions about bookies.
They offer odds that, when all bets are settled, give them a profit. That's it. The market reacts to people placing bets, not what the bookies think will happen. As a previous poster said, they don't give a toss about what the actual outcome is.
Except that they have to offer odds before bets are placed, so there is a judgement on outcomes at that stage - it's just reactive to their liability from then on.
by Maguire » 20 Mar 2013 00:50
by Bandini » 20 Mar 2013 09:22
Maguire Betting for me is all about finding value in the market. Took RFC to draw at Citeh at 11/1 or something stupid like that. Doesn't matter if you think we'll lose, 11/1 is ridiculous value for a draw.
(might have been shorter than that, can't remember)
by Ouroboros » 20 Mar 2013 10:14
Maguire Betting for me is all about finding value in the market. Took RFC to draw at Citeh at 11/1 or something stupid like that. Doesn't matter if you think we'll lose, 11/1 is ridiculous value for a draw.
(might have been shorter than that, can't remember)
winchester_royal Yep, and tbf layers do sometimes take a gamble themselves when there is a heavy favourite that they believe can be 'beaten'. Definitely happens in Horse Racing, though I'd imagine in smaller markets like this one they just go where the money goes.
by Royal Rob » 20 Mar 2013 11:09
2 world wars, 1 world cup Which makes me wonder why we are getting so excited about slight fluctuations in odds as though it's seem sort of a sign? It ain't. Granted, it's the only thig we really have to go on as no one is really in the know, and granted they stopped taking bets re: Brian's sacking but that was only just before the sacking. It seems it's only of note when bets stop, in which case we'll be in the know within hours anyway. PDC is a prime example of the futility of bothering with the odds.
by West Stand Man » 20 Mar 2013 11:31
Maguire This is one of the popular misconceptions about bookies.
They offer odds that, when all bets are settled, give them a profit. That's it. The market reacts to people placing bets, not what the bookies think will happen. As a previous poster said, they don't give a toss about what the actual outcome is.
by BR2 » 20 Mar 2013 11:39
Maguire Betting for me is all about finding value in the market. Took RFC to draw at Citeh at 11/1 or something stupid like that. Doesn't matter if you think we'll lose, 11/1 is ridiculous value for a draw.
(might have been shorter than that, can't remember)
by Ouroboros » 20 Mar 2013 11:57
BR2 Check out the odds for our next game at Arsenal.
I would guess that it would be something like:-
Arsenal 1/4
Draw 7/2
Reading 8/1
by Ouroboros » 20 Mar 2013 12:03
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