Will we exist as a club 1 year from now?

[Fezza]

Yes, but I completely expect us to have gone into and out of administration, and so the owner is unlikely to be the same as it currently is.

I also think administration is the best hope the club has of long-term survival right now.

I’ll ask again, given that the debt is ‘owned’ by Dai and administration would serve to simply reduce his investment value still further, what makes anyone think he would put the club into administration ?
What would he gain ?

The Club is unsaleable with the current level of debt - no-one is going to buy it for £200M or so.

He surely recognises the above and that the debt that is owed to him (on paper) will never be repaid.

Regardless of paper debt, the football club still needs regular cash injections, so keeping the club requires him to spend money and increase the debt.

Assuming he has written off that debt, on the understanding that it's spend, it's lost and it'll never be recovered whatever happens, he has three options :
1. Sell the club, without any debt
2. Carry on bankrolling the club
3. Walk away because he's lost interest.

1. Depends on him getting a buyer, and he may well have trouble with this, or it may well be too much grief and hassle for him. All the time he's looking for a buyer he's still having to bankroll the club.
2. No idea if he wants to do this, but current experience shows that if he is doing this he's doing it in a very half-assed, tardy way which suggests a certain level of disinterest to me.
3. He has a track record of doing this, and if he does stop paying the bills, then the creditors will sue and put the club into administration.

To answer the question, if he's had enough and wants out, and if he's written off the club as a lost cause (which he can afford to do) then walking away (so it goes into administration) is a far simpler thing for him than all the hassle of trying to find a buyer. The money is lost either way, but he stops having to bankroll it and is shot of it so much more quickly.

If you're so super-rich that you can afford to write off debts of £200M, you're probably not going to spend time and effort trying to get the odd £5M or £10M for it - losing £200M and losing £190M is all the same to someone with his level of wealth.

According to the Beeb, £200m is a third of his current wealth - I'm not certain he'd be in a rush to write that off!

[Brogue]

I’ll ask again, given that the debt is ‘owned’ by Dai and administration would serve to simply reduce his investment value still further, what makes anyone think he would put the club into administration ?
What would he gain ?

The Club is unsaleable with the current level of debt - no-one is going to buy it for £200M or so.

He surely recognises the above and that the debt that is owed to him (on paper) will never be repaid.

Regardless of paper debt, the football club still needs regular cash injections, so keeping the club requires him to spend money and increase the debt.

Assuming he has written off that debt, on the understanding that it's spend, it's lost and it'll never be recovered whatever happens, he has three options :
1. Sell the club, without any debt
2. Carry on bankrolling the club
3. Walk away because he's lost interest.

1. Depends on him getting a buyer, and he may well have trouble with this, or it may well be too much grief and hassle for him. All the time he's looking for a buyer he's still having to bankroll the club.
2. No idea if he wants to do this, but current experience shows that if he is doing this he's doing it in a very half-assed, tardy way which suggests a certain level of disinterest to me.
3. He has a track record of doing this, and if he does stop paying the bills, then the creditors will sue and put the club into administration.

To answer the question, if he's had enough and wants out, and if he's written off the club as a lost cause (which he can afford to do) then walking away (so it goes into administration) is a far simpler thing for him than all the hassle of trying to find a buyer. The money is lost either way, but he stops having to bankroll it and is shot of it so much more quickly.

If you're so super-rich that you can afford to write off debts of £200M, you're probably not going to spend time and effort trying to get the odd £5M or £10M for it - losing £200M and losing £190M is all the same to someone with his level of wealth.

According to the Beeb, £200m is a third of his current wealth - I'm not certain he'd be in a rush to write that off!

If you had a house that was going down in value every day and costing you more and more in upkeep. Would you continue to own the house and pump money into repairs knowing the value will keep going down. Or would you think now is about time you got rid and cut your loses and sell up?

[Dirk Gently]

According to the Beeb, £200m is a third of his current wealth - I'm not certain he'd be in a rush to write that off!

I can't think of any possible way he'll recover it. No-one will buy the club with that level of debt. It's gone.

[Dirk Gently]

The Club is unsaleable with the current level of debt - no-one is going to buy it for £200M or so.

He surely recognises the above and that the debt that is owed to him (on paper) will never be repaid.

Regardless of paper debt, the football club still needs regular cash injections, so keeping the club requires him to spend money and increase the debt.

Assuming he has written off that debt, on the understanding that it's spend, it's lost and it'll never be recovered whatever happens, he has three options :
1. Sell the club, without any debt
2. Carry on bankrolling the club
3. Walk away because he's lost interest.

1. Depends on him getting a buyer, and he may well have trouble with this, or it may well be too much grief and hassle for him. All the time he's looking for a buyer he's still having to bankroll the club.
2. No idea if he wants to do this, but current experience shows that if he is doing this he's doing it in a very half-assed, tardy way which suggests a certain level of disinterest to me.
3. He has a track record of doing this, and if he does stop paying the bills, then the creditors will sue and put the club into administration.

To answer the question, if he's had enough and wants out, and if he's written off the club as a lost cause (which he can afford to do) then walking away (so it goes into administration) is a far simpler thing for him than all the hassle of trying to find a buyer. The money is lost either way, but he stops having to bankroll it and is shot of it so much more quickly.

If you're so super-rich that you can afford to write off debts of £200M, you're probably not going to spend time and effort trying to get the odd £5M or £10M for it - losing £200M and losing £190M is all the same to someone with his level of wealth.

According to the Beeb, £200m is a third of his current wealth - I'm not certain he'd be in a rush to write that off!

If you had a house that was going down in value every day and costing you more and more in upkeep. Would you continue to own the house and pump money into repairs knowing the value will keep going down. Or would you think now is about time you got rid and cut your loses and sell up?

I was thinking more in terms of an old car that you've spent far more money on than you will ever recover by selling it. Do you spend time and trouble (and extra cost) trying to find a buyer, do you keep pumping more and more money into it, or do you dupt it?

At least with administration, someone else then has the hassle of finding a buyer, and as main creditor he'll get something back. Not much, but slightly more than nothing - and he'll be shot of it immediately.

[tmesis]

According to the Beeb, £200m is a third of his current wealth - I'm not certain he'd be in a rush to write that off!

If you had a house that was going down in value every day and costing you more and more in upkeep. Would you continue to own the house and pump money into repairs knowing the value will keep going down. Or would you think now is about time you got rid and cut your loses and sell up?

I was thinking more in terms of an old car that you've spent far more money on than you will ever recover by selling it. Do you spend time and trouble (and extra cost) trying to find a buyer, do you keep pumping more and more money into it, or do you dupt it?

At least with administration, someone else then has the hassle of finding a buyer, and as main creditor he'll get something back. Not much, but slightly more than nothing - and he'll be shot of it immediately.

1p in the pound would see him get £2 million back.

I would imagine he'd be able to find a buyer who would give him more than that.

Administration would be terrible for the club. Not just the points deduction, but administrators are absolute vultures, and will sell any asset to get their fees.

[Jackson Corner]

Of course. After the club folds in September the ground and training ground will be sold for housing to pay our debts too the HMRC. We will reform as AFC Reading in the 7th tier Thames Valley League playing Ascot and Windsor. We will ground share with Maidenhead until a new site can be found to build a new ground with an 8k capacity. If all goes well we shall reach national league south by 2035. And maybe a possible return to the football league by 2050.

[Linden Jones' Tash]

Of course. After the club folds in September the ground and training ground will be sold for housing to pay our debts too the HMRC. We will reform as AFC Reading in the 7th tier Thames Valley League playing Ascot and Windsor. We will ground share with Maidenhead until a new site can be found to build a new ground with an 8k capacity. If all goes well we shall reach national league south by 2035. And maybe a possible return to the football league by 2050.

Sounds optimistic to me...

The inherent value as it stands has always been in getting to the Premier League - as people say, assuming that the costs of running the club aren't an issue - other than cashflow with China - why write off £200M investment, when with a bit of luck, you could be in the Premier league in 3 years....

Ultimately depends on motivation - owning a professional football team is a vanity project and if you aren't getting anything back, then why own it?

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Yes we will exist in a years time, either with the Dai's or with new ownership. Whatever route we take to get there, who knows. You'd imagine the sensible thing to do if you were Dai and you weren't as invested in the club anymore would be to sell and see what you can get for us. With the stadium, training ground and the club, what would be a reasonable price, £40m? Maybe more? A much better outcome for him and the club if he sells rather than go down the administration route. But even if that was the case, yes it wouldn't be great for the club and we'd almost certainly drop down another division, but we'd hopefully find a more stable ownership model then.

[Forbury Lion]

I think the club will still be here in a years time with the current owners.

In 2 or 3 years time, things may change if we don't get promotion but the owner will likely still get more money selling the club as a whole, even at a massive loss than he would selling the assets individually and folding the club, particularly if the new owners take on some of the debt still owed to the current owner and he therefore gets this repaid over time instead of having to write it off.

[Royal_jimmy]

I expect we'll be alright, we'll have a club to support. Are we at rock bottom? I don't think so, I think it'll take administration to get Dai out of the club. Unfortunately it does seem that getting money out of China is the issue. Think the club needs a change, even if it's with an owner with less wealth but has a passion for the club and knows how to run it sensibly.

[CountryRoyal]

I expect we'll be alright, we'll have a club to support. Are we at rock bottom? I don't think so, I think it'll take administration to get Dai out of the club. Unfortunately it does seem that getting money out of China is the issue. Think the club needs a change, even if it's with an owner with less wealth but has a passion for the club and knows how to run it sensibly.

The Chinese govt have scrapped their football directives and have been trying to get out of it for a while now.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

I expect we'll be alright, we'll have a club to support. Are we at rock bottom? I don't think so, I think it'll take administration to get Dai out of the club. Unfortunately it does seem that getting money out of China is the issue. Think the club needs a change, even if it's with an owner with less wealth but has a passion for the club and knows how to run it sensibly.

The Chinese govt have scrapped their football directives and have been trying to get out of it for a while now.

Yep. No real coincidence that ourselves, West Brom, Birmingham (previously) and now seemingly Wolves are struggling with poor ownership. Not sure how many other English clubs are run by Chinese owners, Villa I think? Even they were one game away from potentially being what us, Sheff Wednesday or Derby were/are like as well.

[Clyde1998]

I expect we'll be alright, we'll have a club to support. Are we at rock bottom? I don't think so, I think it'll take administration to get Dai out of the club. Unfortunately it does seem that getting money out of China is the issue. Think the club needs a change, even if it's with an owner with less wealth but has a passion for the club and knows how to run it sensibly.

The Chinese govt have scrapped their football directives and have been trying to get out of it for a while now.

Yep. No real coincidence that ourselves, West Brom, Birmingham (previously) and now seemingly Wolves are struggling with poor ownership. Not sure how many other English clubs are run by Chinese owners, Villa I think? Even they were one game away from potentially being what us, Sheff Wednesday or Derby were/are like as well.

This is the biggest problem regarding owners from authoritarian states - their leaders could decide to change rules on capital controls on a flick of a switch. A lot of clubs are/were in financial difficulties primarily due to the decisions taken by a foreign government - how do you account for that?

In our case, the very fact Dai was rejected for ownership of Hull when they were in the Premier League should've been enough to disqualify him from purchasing us.

I think club ownership is the biggest area which should be regulated once the government's football review is concluded and the rules should apply in the same way to all professional clubs.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

The Chinese govt have scrapped their football directives and have been trying to get out of it for a while now.

Yep. No real coincidence that ourselves, West Brom, Birmingham (previously) and now seemingly Wolves are struggling with poor ownership. Not sure how many other English clubs are run by Chinese owners, Villa I think? Even they were one game away from potentially being what us, Sheff Wednesday or Derby were/are like as well.

This is the biggest problem regarding owners from authoritarian states - their leaders could decide to change rules on capital controls on a flick of a switch. A lot of clubs are/were in financial difficulties primarily due to the decisions taken by a foreign government - how do you account for that?

In our case, the very fact Dai was rejected for ownership of Hull when they were in the Premier League should've been enough to disqualify him from purchasing us.

I think club ownership is the biggest area which should be regulated once the government's football review is concluded and the rules should apply in the same way to all professional clubs.

Agree. Frustrating that they managed to purchase us when they were rejected of Hull in the Premier League not long before that, but then again you can't stop someone from passing the owners and directors test if they've managed to get themselves into a situation where they can now pass it. What I don't understand is why it was different between the EFL and PL, why you wouldn't just have a standard owners & directors test for all divisions? Certainly needs a look at in terms of regulation.

[Sutekh]

Yep. No real coincidence that ourselves, West Brom, Birmingham (previously) and now seemingly Wolves are struggling with poor ownership. Not sure how many other English clubs are run by Chinese owners, Villa I think? Even they were one game away from potentially being what us, Sheff Wednesday or Derby were/are like as well.

This is the biggest problem regarding owners from authoritarian states - their leaders could decide to change rules on capital controls on a flick of a switch. A lot of clubs are/were in financial difficulties primarily due to the decisions taken by a foreign government - how do you account for that?

In our case, the very fact Dai was rejected for ownership of Hull when they were in the Premier League should've been enough to disqualify him from purchasing us.

I think club ownership is the biggest area which should be regulated once the government's football review is concluded and the rules should apply in the same way to all professional clubs.

Agree. Frustrating that they managed to purchase us when they were rejected of Hull in the Premier League not long before that, but then again you can't stop someone from passing the owners and directors test if they've managed to get themselves into a situation where they can now pass it. What I don't understand is why it was different between the EFL and PL, why you wouldn't just have a standard owners & directors test for all divisions? Certainly needs a look at in terms of regulation.

It's utterly ******* ludicrous that the PL have different F&PP tests to the FL, both should be synchronised to the exact same set of criteria - and perhaps all such tests should be conducted by one independent organisation that would specialise in such things (and likewise could be the "go to" organisation when clubs need or want to find new owners).

[Lower West]

Administration would be terrible for the club. Not just the points deduction, but administrators are absolute vultures, and will sell any asset to get their fees.

Administrators simply perform a legal function. Without them in place the club would definitely fold.

[Green]

Administration would be terrible for the club. Not just the points deduction, but administrators are absolute vultures, and will sell any asset to get their fees.

Administrators simply perform a legal function. Without them in place the club would definitely fold.

Like traffic wardens, referees and policeman - of course we need them, but in the spirit of the OP it certainly takes a certain sort of person to do that job.

[CountryRoyal]

This is the biggest problem regarding owners from authoritarian states - their leaders could decide to change rules on capital controls on a flick of a switch. A lot of clubs are/were in financial difficulties primarily due to the decisions taken by a foreign government - how do you account for that?

In our case, the very fact Dai was rejected for ownership of Hull when they were in the Premier League should've been enough to disqualify him from purchasing us.

I think club ownership is the biggest area which should be regulated once the government's football review is concluded and the rules should apply in the same way to all professional clubs.

Agree. Frustrating that they managed to purchase us when they were rejected of Hull in the Premier League not long before that, but then again you can't stop someone from passing the owners and directors test if they've managed to get themselves into a situation where they can now pass it. What I don't understand is why it was different between the EFL and PL, why you wouldn't just have a standard owners & directors test for all divisions? Certainly needs a look at in terms of regulation.

It's utterly ******* ludicrous that the PL have different F&PP tests to the FL, both should be synchronised to the exact same set of criteria - and perhaps all such tests should be conducted by one independent organisation that would specialise in such things (and likewise could be the "go to" organisation when clubs need or want to find new owners).

Interestingly* what would have happened had we gotten promoted?

[Dirk Gently]

It's utterly ******* ludicrous that the PL have different F&PP tests to the FL, both should be synchronised to the exact same set of criteria - and perhaps all such tests should be conducted by one independent organisation that would specialise in such things (and likewise could be the "go to" organisation when clubs need or want to find new owners).

The PL have almost unlimited funds, and use a team of forensic financial investigators who manage to get information that's hidden in various overseas jurisdictions - and their methods of obtaining information could sometimes be called slightly dodgy - certainly, they manage to get access to a lot of financial information that people have tried to hide. There are always ways and means if you throw enough resources at it.

The FL are broke and their resources are a fraction of what the PL has - they just can't do the same level of financial investigations.

And the PL can't share their info with the Fl because of the way much of it has been obtained.

So the FL can't do proper checks, and they're forever scared of being sued by someone they've turned down when they don't have the evidence to show why they've turned them down. "The PL said so..." isn't a defence that'll stand up in court.

[Snowflake Royal]

Yep. No real coincidence that ourselves, West Brom, Birmingham (previously) and now seemingly Wolves are struggling with poor ownership. Not sure how many other English clubs are run by Chinese owners, Villa I think? Even they were one game away from potentially being what us, Sheff Wednesday or Derby were/are like as well.

This is the biggest problem regarding owners from authoritarian states - their leaders could decide to change rules on capital controls on a flick of a switch. A lot of clubs are/were in financial difficulties primarily due to the decisions taken by a foreign government - how do you account for that?

In our case, the very fact Dai was rejected for ownership of Hull when they were in the Premier League should've been enough to disqualify him from purchasing us.

I think club ownership is the biggest area which should be regulated once the government's football review is concluded and the rules should apply in the same way to all professional clubs.

Agree. Frustrating that they managed to purchase us when they were rejected of Hull in the Premier League not long before that, but then again you can't stop someone from passing the owners and directors test if they've managed to get themselves into a situation where they can now pass it. What I don't understand is why it was different between the EFL and PL, why you wouldn't just have a standard owners & directors test for all divisions? Certainly needs a look at in terms of regulation.

Because the PL are special snowflakes - that's their reason for existing, and they also have far more resources to throw at investigating even where the rules are the same.