Play-off/relegation watch.

[windermereROYAL]

Ok, here we have it, 19 games to go, 8 at home 11 away. 8 points off the play-offs 7 points above the drop zone, a good run can get us up amongst it, but it doesn`t take a genius to know a bad run can get us dragged back down into the troublesome area.
It`s almost a certainty that to stay up this term is going to be in the 50-55 points bracket. less than a ppg for us. but if anything about this damn club tells us anything they`ll have us all sweating again with 10 to play.
Nothing I saw last night does anything to lessen the anxiety.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

I'm pretty much glass half empty with these things, but it would take a Terry the Taxi type run for us to really be in the mire and I don't see that happening. I agree with the comments on the Exeter feed that we may have tried to change too much too soon but the players that have come in look good additions, and I think its likely we will pick up form again in the coming weeks.

I reckon we'll finish around 10th.

[Sutekh]

Reading are now embarking on a run of games now that you’d largely classify as “winnable” and games that the club should be taking serious points from otherwise the rest of the season will be one of doom. This is the run that will either set up or destroy the season.

Northampton (a)
Wimbledon (a)
Wigan (a)
Wycombe (h)
Bolton (h)
Port Vale (a)
Bradford (h)
Luton (a)
Mansfield (a)
Plymouth (h)
Burton (a)

After these they hit a generally bad run of games which would likely spiral the club towards relegation if the points from the next 11 games is substandard

Stevenage (a)
Wigan (h)
Huddersfield (a) (Good Friday)
Lincoln (h) (Easter Monday)
Doncaster (a)
Cardiff (h)

Personally, I think Reading won’t be troubling the relegation fight.

[stealthpapes]

Leam overall form in league - played 13 won 6 draw 4 lost 3

19 games left to go, so keeping the same form gives won 9 draw 6 lost 4, an additional 33 points, for a total of 70.

This would be just shy of play-offs, I think, but the aim of the sum is to illustrate just how little material improvement we need in our run-in to challenge. Two draws into wins, for 37 basically matches last season.

Looking the other way, a target of 50 points requires 13 points or 2 pts every 3 games (win 3 draw 4 lost 12 for example).

1 ppg gives us 19 (win 5 draw 4 lost 10, for example) and a final total of 56, probably safe but an increasingly toxic atmosphere around the place.

[tidus_mi2]

Next 3 I think are going to be a big indicator of where we are, 3 teams struggling near the bottom, bang out of form, should be getting at least 7pts I would think.

[MR. CYNICAL]

Next 3 I think are going to be a big indicator of where we are, 3 teams struggling near the bottom, bang out of form, should be getting at least 7pts I would think.

Have you forgotten about our abysmal away form?

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Next 3 I think are going to be a big indicator of where we are, 3 teams struggling near the bottom, bang out of form, should be getting at least 7pts I would think.

Wigan will have Arsenal cup tie 4 days after too so that one looks winnable.

[Stranded]

Next 3 I think are going to be a big indicator of where we are, 3 teams struggling near the bottom, bang out of form, should be getting at least 7pts I would think.

Have you forgotten about our abysmal away form?

It was abysmal - we are currently 9th in the away form table (6 games) picking up 7 of the 11 points we have achieved over that time.

[stealthpapes]

Leam overall form in league - played 14 won 7 draw 4 lost 3

18 games left to go, so keeping the same form gives won 9 draw 5 lost 4, an additional 32 points, for a total of 72.

Reckon mid 70s needed for playoffs

[Sutekh]

Games left this season. Current league positions of teams still to play.

HOME

1st
2nd
3rd
5th
9th
14th
16th
19th

Avg Pos. 9.8

AWAY

6th
7th
8th
11th
17th
19th
20th
21st
22nd
24th

Avg Pos. 15.5

Overall Avg Pos. of all remaining opposition = 13th

[From Despair To Where?]

I'm not really looking at the playoffs, not that I'm writing them off this season. Take steps forward and see what the season brings. We are a where we deserve to be at the moment. I'm not worried about relegation.

I think we've had a decent window. Keane has 2 in 2 starts, Roberts a goal, an assist and a clean sheet in 3 and Nyambe an assist and a clean sheet in 3. Ward on paper offers something we haven't got at CB; pace and composure on the ball. In theory, as they settle fully, we should improve and results will follow.


Looks like we're losing Garcia. We have no idea whether he would be here next season so, although losing him is disappointing, probably best to cash in. Hopefully we'll see Brugge selling him for £20m+ in 2 years.

I like Savage, but if we get a decent offer, I do think he's a player we could afford to lose.

[tidus_mi2]

Hope we finally end our London hoodoo against Wimbledon

[WestYorksRoyal]

I wonder if the table is starting to take shape. Lincoln pulling away from 3rd place, Huddersfield have won 3 in a row and are 6 points clear of 7th. I know teams have games in hand, but are not that consistent. Then a 4 point gap has opened up between 15th and 16th, so perhaps the relegation fight narrowing a bit

[SouthDownsRoyal]

Leam overall form in league - played 14 won 7 draw 4 lost 3

18 games left to go, so keeping the same form gives won 9 draw 5 lost 4, an additional 32 points, for a total of 72.

Reckon mid 70s needed for playoffs

Sadly I don’t get to many games anymore due to work commitments so no idea how well we are playing but that’s a pretty good run of form under LEAM.

[Snowflake Royal]

I wonder if the table is starting to take shape. Lincoln pulling away from 3rd place, Huddersfield have won 3 in a row and are 6 points clear of 7th. I know teams have games in hand, but are not that consistent. Then a 4 point gap has opened up between 15th and 16th, so perhaps the relegation fight narrowing a bit

Certainly we seem plenty good enough against the weaker sides, but a bit too vilulnerable to the better sides to quite make a challenge

Leam's picked up a load of points, but he has had quite a few games against weaker opposition, and whilst I don't think Hunt would have done as well, I do think he would have seen results improve too.

Not quite there yet often enough. You can see have lots of quality, but its not quite hanging together properly yet and a bit too inconsistent. But come end of season, trim the squad, small number of quality additions in key places and we should have a very good chance of a good season.

[windermereROYAL]

in the last 10 years the highest points total has been 50 points 3 times for the last relegation place, at the moment it`s 31 points with 18 to play.
Most of the teams down there seem capable of picking up surprising results so it wouldn`t be a shock if that number is surpassed this season.
Either way I can`t see us getting dragged back into it.

[Clyde1998]

in the last 10 years the highest points total has been 50 points 3 times for the last relegation place, at the moment it`s 31 points with 18 to play.
Most of the teams down there seem capable of picking up surprising results so it wouldn`t be a shock if that number is surpassed this season.
Either way I can`t see us getting dragged back into it.

I've looking back the typical number of points sides get since the division has been called League One (2004-05), excluding the 2019-20 season where the season was decided on points per game and reallocating points back to those with deductions for consistency.

The side that comes 21st gets on average 48 points and typically between 46 and 50 points, so we'd need between seven and eleven points to get above that bar in a normal season. We shouldn't have any issues with relegation now, even we'd require a few more points than that.

Thinking more generally about the play-offs, the side that comes seventh gets an average of 72.5 points, with 50% of seasons being between 69.75 and 74 points; the side that comes sixth gets an average of 74 points and usually between 72.5 and 76 points. We'd essentially need between another 30 and 37 points to reach the play-offs in a normal season.

When we look at the gap between our points per game by venue and our remaining opponent's points per game by venue (dependant on where we play them), our easiest to hardest games are (games this month in bold):

1. 3 Apr - Huddersfield (A) - 6th (-0.99)
2. 7 Mar - Luton (A) - 7th (-0.79)
3. 21 Mar - Stevenage (A) - 8th - (-0.77)
4. 10 Mar - Mansfield (A) - 11th (-0.54)
5. 25 Apr - Rotherham (A) - 20th (-0.35)
6. 10 Feb - Wigan (A) - 19th (-0.31)
7. 11 Apr - Doncaster (A) - 22nd (-0.28)
8. 17 Mar - Burton (A) - 21st (-0.21)
9. 7 Feb - Wimbledon (A) - 17th (-0.08)
10. 18 Apr - Cardiff (H) - 1st (+0.09)
11. 6 Apr - Lincoln (H) - 2nd (+0.16)
12. 21 Feb - Port Vale (A) - 24th (+0.33)
13. 14 Mar - Plymouth (H) - 14th (+0.38)
14. 28 Feb - Bradford (H) - 5th (+0.52)
15. 17 Feb - Bolton (H) - 3rd (+0.53)
16. 14 Feb - Wycombe (H) - 9th (+0.80)
17. 28 Mar - Wigan (H) - 19th (+0.87)
18. 2 May Blackpool (H) - 16th (+1.02)

If we win all the games against sides we're stronger than 0.333 p/g than; lose all against sides we're weaker than 0.333 p/g than and draw the rest, we get 65 points.

February looks like a good month for potential points, although our home games are all against sides in the top ten. March/early April looks relatively difficult.

Of course, the balance between our (and other team's) p/g at home and away will change as we play different teams - especially as we're playing sides higher up the league at home and sides lower down the league away.

I'd still suggest if we're not closing in on the play-offs by the end of this month, we're likely to end up mid-table.

[traff]

in the last 10 years the highest points total has been 50 points 3 times for the last relegation place, at the moment it`s 31 points with 18 to play.
Most of the teams down there seem capable of picking up surprising results so it wouldn`t be a shock if that number is surpassed this season.
Either way I can`t see us getting dragged back into it.

I've looking back the typical number of points sides get since the division has been called League One (2004-05), excluding the 2019-20 season where the season was decided on points per game and reallocating points back to those with deductions for consistency.

The side that comes 21st gets on average 48 points and typically between 46 and 50 points, so we'd need between seven and eleven points to get above that bar in a normal season. We shouldn't have any issues with relegation now, even we'd require a few more points than that.

Thinking more generally about the play-offs, the side that comes seventh gets an average of 72.5 points, with 50% of seasons being between 69.75 and 74 points; the side that comes sixth gets an average of 74 points and usually between 72.5 and 76 points. We'd essentially need between another 30 and 37 points to reach the play-offs in a normal season.

When we look at the gap between our points per game by venue and our remaining opponent's points per game by venue (dependant on where we play them), our easiest to hardest games are (games this month in bold):

1. 3 Apr - Huddersfield (A) - 6th (-0.99)
2. 7 Mar - Luton (A) - 7th (-0.79)
3. 21 Mar - Stevenage (A) - 8th - (-0.77)
4. 10 Mar - Mansfield (A) - 11th (-0.54)
5. 25 Apr - Rotherham (A) - 20th (-0.35)
6. 10 Feb - Wigan (A) - 19th (-0.31)
7. 11 Apr - Doncaster (A) - 22nd (-0.28)
8. 17 Mar - Burton (A) - 21st (-0.21)
9. 7 Feb - Wimbledon (A) - 17th (-0.08)
10. 18 Apr - Cardiff (H) - 1st (+0.09)
11. 6 Apr - Lincoln (H) - 2nd (+0.16)
12. 21 Feb - Port Vale (A) - 24th (+0.33)
13. 14 Mar - Plymouth (H) - 14th (+0.38)
14. 28 Feb - Bradford (H) - 5th (+0.52)
15. 17 Feb - Bolton (H) - 3rd (+0.53)
16. 14 Feb - Wycombe (H) - 9th (+0.80)
17. 28 Mar - Wigan (H) - 19th (+0.87)
18. 2 May Blackpool (H) - 16th (+1.02)

If we win all the games against sides we're stronger than 0.333 p/g than; lose all against sides we're weaker than 0.333 p/g than and draw the rest, we get 65 points.

February looks like a good month for potential points, although our home games are all against sides in the top ten. March/early April looks relatively difficult.

Of course, the balance between our (and other team's) p/g at home and away will change as we play different teams - especially as we're playing sides higher up the league at home and sides lower down the league away.

I'd still suggest if we're not closing in on the play-offs by the end of this month, we're likely to end up mid-table.

yeah,yeah,yeah.
But what does your gut say?

[stealthpapes]

Leam overall form in league - played 14 won 7 draw 4 lost 3

18 games left to go, so keeping the same form gives won 9 draw 5 lost 4, an additional 32 points, for a total of 72.

Reckon mid 70s needed for playoffs

Sadly I don’t get to many games anymore due to work commitments so no idea how well we are playing but that’s a pretty good run of form under LEAM.

The defeats (4 including the cup) have been pretty grim. When teams find us out, it's a painful, painful watch.
Turn one of those draws into a win and you're pretty much bang on 2.0 ppg (27 from 14) and I'd be much, much more optimistic.

[Clyde1998]

yeah,yeah,yeah.
But what does your gut say?

I think we'll be mid-table. Invariably we'll get injuries and we're not playing like a side which will get into the play-offs. With the signings we've made this window, I think we've put ourselves into a good position for next season though.