Rival Watch

[Zip]

Just a small point but it doesn’t need EVERYONE below us to hit form.
Just one would be a big issue

Exactly

It's not hitting form though is it. It involves one of them hitting promotion form when all are, even of late, bouncing around relegation or lower table form. Whilst we drop off a cliff.

2 separate things have to happen and whilst neither are impossible both are unlikely.

You do need to factor who our rivals are playing though. After Fulham it appears Derby have a good run in. They are playing a QPR team in freefall followed by three games that are eminently winnable.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Exactly

It's not hitting form though is it. It involves one of them hitting promotion form when all are, even of late, bouncing around relegation or lower table form. Whilst we drop off a cliff.

2 separate things have to happen and whilst neither are impossible both are unlikely.

You do need to factor who our rivals are playing though. After Fulham it appears Derby have a good run in. They are playing a QPR team in freefall followed by three games that are eminently winnable.

Not to mention I think people have completely written Derby off against Fulham which I aren't either. Yes, I'm expecting a Fulham win, but Derby need the points and are strong at home and I could easily see them turning them over. Suddenly that's 3 more points more than they would have anticipated with 4 games left in their season and they could win 3 of them, meaning we would need 4 points from our last 5 which we should get, but it's not a given.

[Zip]

It's not hitting form though is it. It involves one of them hitting promotion form when all are, even of late, bouncing around relegation or lower table form. Whilst we drop off a cliff.

2 separate things have to happen and whilst neither are impossible both are unlikely.

You do need to factor who our rivals are playing though. After Fulham it appears Derby have a good run in. They are playing a QPR team in freefall followed by three games that are eminently winnable.

Not to mention I think people have completely written Derby off against Fulham which I aren't either. Yes, I'm expecting a Fulham win, but Derby need the points and are strong at home and I could easily see them turning them over. Suddenly that's 3 more points more than they would have anticipated with 4 games left in their season and they could win 3 of them, meaning we would need 4 points from our last 5 which we should get, but it's not a given.

Yep agreed.

[Hendo]

Not that this just applies to us, as I expect it applies to every fan base.

But I do enjoy seeing fans think other teams are going to pick up all the points when their own team aren't going to pick up anything.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Not that this just applies to us, as I expect it applies to every fan base.

But I do enjoy seeing fans think other teams are going to pick up all the points when their own team aren't going to pick up anything.

The pessimism of being a fan at the bottom of the table I suppose. I don't doubt Derby fans are saying they won't win enough games, likewise Barnsley and Peterborough fans as well.

Truth is we need another win I think and that might just be enough for us come the end of the season.

[Zip]

Not that this just applies to us, as I expect it applies to every fan base.

But I do enjoy seeing fans think other teams are going to pick up all the points when their own team aren't going to pick up anything.

I have just had a bad feeling about how this season is going to pan out. It has had the feeling of a relegation season to me. Obvs I don’t want that to happen!

[Stranded]

It's not hitting form though is it. It involves one of them hitting promotion form when all are, even of late, bouncing around relegation or lower table form. Whilst we drop off a cliff.

2 separate things have to happen and whilst neither are impossible both are unlikely.

You do need to factor who our rivals are playing though. After Fulham it appears Derby have a good run in. They are playing a QPR team in freefall followed by three games that are eminently winnable.

Not to mention I think people have completely written Derby off against Fulham which I aren't either. Yes, I'm expecting a Fulham win, but Derby need the points and are strong at home and I could easily see them turning them over. Suddenly that's 3 more points more than they would have anticipated with 4 games left in their season and they could win 3 of them, meaning we would need 4 points from our last 5 which we should get, but it's not a given.

I'm not writing anything off at all but on this thread the one club being written off is Reading.

Derby may beat Fulham but we may draw or win at Sheffield. The fact is Derby have only won 4 of their last 15 and now need to win 4 of 5 realistically. They have managed it once but after Jan they have a weaker side than the one that managed it.

To get there it will also mean they win 4 home games on the spin, something they have yet to do. They are going to drop points.

[Pepe the Horseman]

You do need to factor who our rivals are playing though. After Fulham it appears Derby have a good run in. They are playing a QPR team in freefall followed by three games that are eminently winnable.

Not to mention I think people have completely written Derby off against Fulham which I aren't either. Yes, I'm expecting a Fulham win, but Derby need the points and are strong at home and I could easily see them turning them over. Suddenly that's 3 more points more than they would have anticipated with 4 games left in their season and they could win 3 of them, meaning we would need 4 points from our last 5 which we should get, but it's not a given.

I'm not writing anything off at all but on this thread the one club being written off is Reading.

Derby may beat Fulham but we may draw or win at Sheffield. The fact is Derby have only won 4 of their last 15 and now need to win 4 of 5 realistically. They have managed it once but after Jan they have a weaker side than the one that managed it.

To get there it will also mean they win 4 home games on the spin, something they have yet to do. They are going to drop points.

I think Fulham losing yesterday will give them a kick up the arse. Expect them to batter Derby.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

You do need to factor who our rivals are playing though. After Fulham it appears Derby have a good run in. They are playing a QPR team in freefall followed by three games that are eminently winnable.

Not to mention I think people have completely written Derby off against Fulham which I aren't either. Yes, I'm expecting a Fulham win, but Derby need the points and are strong at home and I could easily see them turning them over. Suddenly that's 3 more points more than they would have anticipated with 4 games left in their season and they could win 3 of them, meaning we would need 4 points from our last 5 which we should get, but it's not a given.

I'm not writing anything off at all but on this thread the one club being written off is Reading.

Derby may beat Fulham but we may draw or win at Sheffield. The fact is Derby have only won 4 of their last 15 and now need to win 4 of 5 realistically. They have managed it once but after Jan they have a weaker side than the one that managed it.

To get there it will also mean they win 4 home games on the spin, something they have yet to do. They are going to drop points.

This goes back to my original point about this stage of the season being strange and can quite often go against what you would expect. As my examples were, none of the bottom three, after 40 games, 2 seasons ago went down that season, with Barnsley beating Brentford away from home on the final day.

Yes, nothing is there to suggest that Derby will do it, or Barnsley and Peterborough for that matter, but if you give these teams an inch, they will take a mile at this stage of the season, particularly when it's all or nothing. By no means am I writing us off, I expect us to survive, but I don't think it's a "sure thing" that many people believed it was after Stoke and even this weekend with the teams around us not winning.

[Stranded]

Not to mention I think people have completely written Derby off against Fulham which I aren't either. Yes, I'm expecting a Fulham win, but Derby need the points and are strong at home and I could easily see them turning them over. Suddenly that's 3 more points more than they would have anticipated with 4 games left in their season and they could win 3 of them, meaning we would need 4 points from our last 5 which we should get, but it's not a given.

I'm not writing anything off at all but on this thread the one club being written off is Reading.

Derby may beat Fulham but we may draw or win at Sheffield. The fact is Derby have only won 4 of their last 15 and now need to win 4 of 5 realistically. They have managed it once but after Jan they have a weaker side than the one that managed it.

To get there it will also mean they win 4 home games on the spin, something they have yet to do. They are going to drop points.

This goes back to my original point about this stage of the season being strange and can quite often go against what you would expect. As my examples were, none of the bottom three, after 40 games, 2 seasons ago went down that season, with Barnsley beating Brentford away from home on the final day.

Yes, nothing is there to suggest that Derby will do it, or Barnsley and Peterborough for that matter, but if you give these teams an inch, they will take a mile at this stage of the season, particularly when it's all or nothing. By no means am I writing us off, I expect us to survive, but I don't think it's a "sure thing" that many people believed it was after Stoke and even this weekend with the teams around us not winning.

I would question how often the unusual happens. By it's nature the unusual sticks in the mind more due to it being unusual. The Barnsley year you mention was unusual in that Wigan were hit with a 12pt deduction at the end of the season, saving Barnsley.

The years where everything is pretty much settled with 2 or 3 games left are forgotten about.

Different division I know but I read something about the PL and how after 30 games, teams very seldom change position in the top 4 or bottom 3. It wouldn't surprise me if the same held true after 40 at Champ level.

Has anyone ever been relegated with an 8 point gap to the bottom 3 with 5 or 6 games to go?

[Zip]

I'm not writing anything off at all but on this thread the one club being written off is Reading.

Derby may beat Fulham but we may draw or win at Sheffield. The fact is Derby have only won 4 of their last 15 and now need to win 4 of 5 realistically. They have managed it once but after Jan they have a weaker side than the one that managed it.

To get there it will also mean they win 4 home games on the spin, something they have yet to do. They are going to drop points.

This goes back to my original point about this stage of the season being strange and can quite often go against what you would expect. As my examples were, none of the bottom three, after 40 games, 2 seasons ago went down that season, with Barnsley beating Brentford away from home on the final day.

Yes, nothing is there to suggest that Derby will do it, or Barnsley and Peterborough for that matter, but if you give these teams an inch, they will take a mile at this stage of the season, particularly when it's all or nothing. By no means am I writing us off, I expect us to survive, but I don't think it's a "sure thing" that many people believed it was after Stoke and even this weekend with the teams around us not winning.

I would question how often the unusual happens. By it's nature the unusual sticks in the mind more due to it being unusual. The Barnsley year you mention was unusual in that Wigan were hit with a 12pt deduction at the end of the season, saving Barnsley.

The years where everything is pretty much settled with 2 or 3 games left are forgotten about.

Different division I know but I read something about the PL and how after 30 games, teams very seldom change position in the top 4 or bottom 3. It wouldn't surprise me if the same held true after 40 at Champ level.

Has anyone ever been relegated with an 8 point gap to the bottom 3 with 5 or 6 games to go?

We didn’t go down in 87/88 but came desperately close having seemed entirely safe with 8 or 9 games to go. We lost something like 7 on the trot and needed a result in our final game to stay up. We were two down at half time and looked certain to be relegated. Somehow we scored four in the second half and survived.

Just one point to remember here. Derby are not a bottom three side based on points won this season. They are better than that. Their home form is won 10, drawn 7 and lost 3. They will be confident of picking up 6 or 7 points from their last three home games. Their away form is dire but are playing QPR at the right time.

The ball is very much in our court. All is in our hands to confirm safety but I don’t have much faith in this squad. We are the team with everything to lose on current standings and I don’t like that.
Hopefully we will do what we need to so that safety is guaranteed but let’s get it done sooner as needing points in the final games will be nerve racking.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

I'm not writing anything off at all but on this thread the one club being written off is Reading.

Derby may beat Fulham but we may draw or win at Sheffield. The fact is Derby have only won 4 of their last 15 and now need to win 4 of 5 realistically. They have managed it once but after Jan they have a weaker side than the one that managed it.

To get there it will also mean they win 4 home games on the spin, something they have yet to do. They are going to drop points.

This goes back to my original point about this stage of the season being strange and can quite often go against what you would expect. As my examples were, none of the bottom three, after 40 games, 2 seasons ago went down that season, with Barnsley beating Brentford away from home on the final day.

Yes, nothing is there to suggest that Derby will do it, or Barnsley and Peterborough for that matter, but if you give these teams an inch, they will take a mile at this stage of the season, particularly when it's all or nothing. By no means am I writing us off, I expect us to survive, but I don't think it's a "sure thing" that many people believed it was after Stoke and even this weekend with the teams around us not winning.

I would question how often the unusual happens. By it's nature the unusual sticks in the mind more due to it being unusual. The Barnsley year you mention was unusual in that Wigan were hit with a 12pt deduction at the end of the season, saving Barnsley.

The years where everything is pretty much settled with 2 or 3 games left are forgotten about.

Different division I know but I read something about the PL and how after 30 games, teams very seldom change position in the top 4 or bottom 3. It wouldn't surprise me if the same held true after 40 at Champ level.

Has anyone ever been relegated with an 8 point gap to the bottom 3 with 5 or 6 games to go?

When I say "unusual", I mean in respect to unusual runs of form for a team at the bottom of the division that end up getting our of trouble. I know what you mean when it's down to the unusual will stay in the memory, but I meant more about better runs of form than what the table would suggest. Similar to us under Gomes during the last 12-ish games of the season where we were averaging around 1.6 ppg, which was mid table to top half form.

It wasn't just Barnsley I was referring to, but also Luton and Middlesbrough who managed to get safe as well despite being behind. Yes, it wasn't 8 points behind with 5 games left, but it's not common for all 3 sides to get out of danger at the end of the season despite being in it with few games left.

The only reason I think this gets mentioned is because the recent relegation battles have seen "unusual" twists and turns happen and that could well happen again this year if we believe the job is done. I don't think we do and I don't think it will happen, but the unusual instances seem to be happening more frequently now.

[Stranded]

Fair enough Zip but it's better to relax at this stage unless shit hits fan.

We're just as capable of shock results as they are this season, see taking 4 points from top 2 away as an example.

You're right, Derby aren't a standard bottom 3 but they would only be 17th without it, they aren't world beaters.

[Snowflake Royal]

Not that this just applies to us, as I expect it applies to every fan base.

But I do enjoy seeing fans think other teams are going to pick up all the points when their own team aren't going to pick up anything.

Yep.

Let's not forget that every time Barnsley, Derby and Peterborough have got close, they've then crumbled again.

And for all the comments of Derby might get a surprise from Fulham and their other fixtures are against teams with nothing to play for / poor form.

Well it works both ways. We just got beat by a team with nothing to play for.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Not that this just applies to us, as I expect it applies to every fan base.

But I do enjoy seeing fans think other teams are going to pick up all the points when their own team aren't going to pick up anything.

Yep.

Let's not forget that every time Barnsley, Derby and Peterborough have got close, they've then crumbled again.

And for all the comments of Derby might get a surprise from Fulham and their other fixtures are against teams with nothing to play for / poor form.

Well it works both ways. We just got beat by a team with nothing to play for.

And that's what is swaying me to say that they won't do it either, just because I can't see them winning all of those games, but there is a possibility.

I think the narrative has to be, these teams do still have a chance whilst we don't finish the job and the pressure grows each game that we don't do it, but it's also looking more unlikely as each game passes. We are not certainly safe like some have suggested, however we aren't exactly on the brink either like it may come across.

[Stranded]

I don't think anyone has said they don't have a chance but it is very slim as one has to hit the sort of form that they've not been showing this calendar year, whilst we have another run like January.

It is unlikely enough to not worry about at this point. If after the 2 games next weekend the gap is significantly reduced then it may be time to worry but as of now, the gap seems as likely to increase as it does drop significantly.

If we go into the final weekend still needing, I will be very disappointed and surprised.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

I don't think anyone has said they don't have a chance but it is very slim as one has to hit the sort of form that they've not been showing this calendar year, whilst we have another run like January.

It is unlikely enough to not worry about at this point. If after the 2 games next weekend the gap is significantly reduced then it may be time to worry but as of now, the gap seems as likely to increase as it does drop significantly.

If we go into the final weekend still needing, I will be very disappointed and surprised.

Again though, it goes back to my point about the "unusual" situations that are becoming more and more the norm, especially at the end of the season. Just touching on what you said re Barnsley staying up because Wigan went into administration, that's precisely why we are staying up currently at the expense of Derby, so that's two out of the last three seasons and I don't doubt a clubs' points deduction next season could factor into the relegation battle as well, so it's becoming the norm.

Our attitude towards the next couple of games needs to be with caution, rather than just assuming it's job done.

[Stranded]

I don't think anyone has said they don't have a chance but it is very slim as one has to hit the sort of form that they've not been showing this calendar year, whilst we have another run like January.

It is unlikely enough to not worry about at this point. If after the 2 games next weekend the gap is significantly reduced then it may be time to worry but as of now, the gap seems as likely to increase as it does drop significantly.

If we go into the final weekend still needing, I will be very disappointed and surprised.

Again though, it goes back to my point about the "unusual" situations that are becoming more and more the norm, especially at the end of the season. Just touching on what you said re Barnsley staying up because Wigan went into administration, that's precisely why we are staying up currently at the expense of Derby, so that's two out of the last three seasons and I don't doubt a clubs' points deduction next season could factor into the relegation battle as well, so it's becoming the norm.

Our attitude towards the next couple of games needs to be with caution, rather than just assuming it's job done.

Our attitude is key of course and coming back to the season you mention, yes the bottom 3 after 40 games all stayed up but the gap from bottom to 19th was just 4 points and everyone had over 40 pts. It was much tighter.

[Snowflake Royal]

Not that this just applies to us, as I expect it applies to every fan base.

But I do enjoy seeing fans think other teams are going to pick up all the points when their own team aren't going to pick up anything.

Yep.

Let's not forget that every time Barnsley, Derby and Peterborough have got close, they've then crumbled again.

And for all the comments of Derby might get a surprise from Fulham and their other fixtures are against teams with nothing to play for / poor form.

Well it works both ways. We just got beat by a team with nothing to play for.

And that's what is swaying me to say that they won't do it either, just because I can't see them winning all of those games, but there is a possibility.

I think the narrative has to be, these teams do still have a chance whilst we don't finish the job and the pressure grows each game that we don't do it, but it's also looking more unlikely as each game passes. We are not certainly safe like some have suggested, however we aren't exactly on the brink either like it may come across.

The magic number highlights just how little margin for error Derby have.

If they lose two games, we basically have to gain no points for them to catch us.

This is why I'm personally happy to write them off. It's theoretically possible for them to do it, but the change in form for us is implausible, as is the change in form for them. To the point I think that practically it is all but impossible.

I don't think we're going to lose 5 games. I don't think we'll lose 4. I don't think Derby will win 3.

[Stranded]

Be interesting* to see what the take here would be if everyone had drawn not lost on Saturday.