Rival Watch

[Silver Fox]

I'm going to guess the same posters would be claiming we'd lose our our last 5 while the others will run the table, contrary to all suggested evidence based on form

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Be interesting* to see what the take here would be if everyone had drawn not lost on Saturday.

I personally think it would have been a lot different as it would meant Derby would have needed 4 wins (3 wins and a draw specifically) to stay up at our expense, which looks "too much" to do.

I know it sounds ridiculous to suggest 3 wins is "doable" yet 3 wins and a draw/4 wins isn't, but that's how fine the margins are at this stage of the season. At the moment, its on the cusp of being doable for those bottom 3, however, if we gain on them in any of our remaining fixtures, it's over for them, even if not officially relegated.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Yep.

Let's not forget that every time Barnsley, Derby and Peterborough have got close, they've then crumbled again.

And for all the comments of Derby might get a surprise from Fulham and their other fixtures are against teams with nothing to play for / poor form.

Well it works both ways. We just got beat by a team with nothing to play for.

And that's what is swaying me to say that they won't do it either, just because I can't see them winning all of those games, but there is a possibility.

I think the narrative has to be, these teams do still have a chance whilst we don't finish the job and the pressure grows each game that we don't do it, but it's also looking more unlikely as each game passes. We are not certainly safe like some have suggested, however we aren't exactly on the brink either like it may come across.

The magic number highlights just how little margin for error Derby have.

If they lose two games, we basically have to gain no points for them to catch us.

This is why I'm personally happy to write them off. It's theoretically possible for them to do it, but the change in form for us is implausible, as is the change in form for them. To the point I think that practically it is all but impossible.

I don't think we're going to lose 5 games. I don't think we'll lose 4. I don't think Derby will win 3.

Think I posted on a separate thread last night that Derby cannot afford to draw twice and lose once, or worse, otherwise there is no margin for error then and they HAVE to win every game from that point onwards, or if we win 1 more game should they do the aforementioned, then they would be relegated. As much as Derby could win 3 of their last 5, I think it's far more likely that they will draw twice and lose once (or worse).

I don't think I'd describe it as "practically impossible", but it's certainly unlikely.

[Zip]

Be interesting* to see what the take here would be if everyone had drawn not lost on Saturday.

I personally think it would have been a lot different as it would meant Derby would have needed 4 wins (3 wins and a draw specifically) to stay up at our expense, which looks "too much" to do.

I know it sounds ridiculous to suggest 3 wins is "doable" yet 3 wins and a draw/4 wins isn't, but that's how fine the margins are at this stage of the season. At the moment, its on the cusp of being doable for those bottom 3, however, if we gain on them in any of our remaining fixtures, it's over for them, even if not officially relegated.

A point on Saturday have been absolutely fine. It would have increased the gap over Derby and Barnsley and further demoralised them. We don’t want them to get any encouragement

[LUX]

looking forward to the end of season when we can forget about all of this

I guess, if we do escape, it will feel better than being one of the three unsuccessful play-off teams

[Stranded]

Be interesting* to see what the take here would be if everyone had drawn not lost on Saturday.

I personally think it would have been a lot different as it would meant Derby would have needed 4 wins (3 wins and a draw specifically) to stay up at our expense, which looks "too much" to do.

I know it sounds ridiculous to suggest 3 wins is "doable" yet 3 wins and a draw/4 wins isn't, but that's how fine the margins are at this stage of the season. At the moment, its on the cusp of being doable for those bottom 3, however, if we gain on them in any of our remaining fixtures, it's over for them, even if not officially relegated.

A point on Saturday have been absolutely fine. It would have increased the gap over Derby and Barnsley and further demoralised them. We don’t want them to get any encouragement

Maybe my point wasn't clear, I meant would the reaction be the same if Barnsley, Derby and us had all drawn. Situation would be the same but because we had got a point would "the fear" be the same.

[Zip]

I personally think it would have been a lot different as it would meant Derby would have needed 4 wins (3 wins and a draw specifically) to stay up at our expense, which looks "too much" to do.

I know it sounds ridiculous to suggest 3 wins is "doable" yet 3 wins and a draw/4 wins isn't, but that's how fine the margins are at this stage of the season. At the moment, its on the cusp of being doable for those bottom 3, however, if we gain on them in any of our remaining fixtures, it's over for them, even if not officially relegated.

A point on Saturday have been absolutely fine. It would have increased the gap over Derby and Barnsley and further demoralised them. We don’t want them to get any encouragement

Maybe my point wasn't clear, I meant would the reaction be the same if Barnsley, Derby and us had all drawn. Situation would be the same but because we had got a point would "the fear" be the same.

It wouldn’t have felt as bad. We would have kept our unbeaten run going and shown a bit of resilience in holding on for a point. Having said that the counter would be Derby would have had a boost getting a draw at Swansea but on balance it would not have felt as bad.

[Snowflake Royal]

And that's what is swaying me to say that they won't do it either, just because I can't see them winning all of those games, but there is a possibility.

I think the narrative has to be, these teams do still have a chance whilst we don't finish the job and the pressure grows each game that we don't do it, but it's also looking more unlikely as each game passes. We are not certainly safe like some have suggested, however we aren't exactly on the brink either like it may come across.

The magic number highlights just how little margin for error Derby have.

If they lose two games, we basically have to gain no points for them to catch us.

This is why I'm personally happy to write them off. It's theoretically possible for them to do it, but the change in form for us is implausible, as is the change in form for them. To the point I think that practically it is all but impossible.

I don't think we're going to lose 5 games. I don't think we'll lose 4. I don't think Derby will win 3.

Think I posted on a separate thread last night that Derby cannot afford to draw twice and lose once, or worse, otherwise there is no margin for error then and they HAVE to win every game from that point onwards, or if we win 1 more game should they do the aforementioned, then they would be relegated. As much as Derby could win 3 of their last 5, I think it's far more likely that they will draw twice and lose once (or worse).

I don't think I'd describe it as "practically impossible", but it's certainly unlikely.

It's the combination of us totally dropping a bollock and them drastically improving at the exact same time, right at the death that rules it out for me.

You'll be right 95 times in 100, maybe better, with that view. Obviously would not be so complacent if I was anyway involved in the club getting results.

Regardless of whether to all intents and purposes we're safe or not. It's still a case of try to win every game.

[Franchise FC]

This goes back to my original point about this stage of the season being strange and can quite often go against what you would expect. As my examples were, none of the bottom three, after 40 games, 2 seasons ago went down that season, with Barnsley beating Brentford away from home on the final day.

Yes, nothing is there to suggest that Derby will do it, or Barnsley and Peterborough for that matter, but if you give these teams an inch, they will take a mile at this stage of the season, particularly when it's all or nothing. By no means am I writing us off, I expect us to survive, but I don't think it's a "sure thing" that many people believed it was after Stoke and even this weekend with the teams around us not winning.

I would question how often the unusual happens. By it's nature the unusual sticks in the mind more due to it being unusual. The Barnsley year you mention was unusual in that Wigan were hit with a 12pt deduction at the end of the season, saving Barnsley.

The years where everything is pretty much settled with 2 or 3 games left are forgotten about.

Different division I know but I read something about the PL and how after 30 games, teams very seldom change position in the top 4 or bottom 3. It wouldn't surprise me if the same held true after 40 at Champ level.

Has anyone ever been relegated with an 8 point gap to the bottom 3 with 5 or 6 games to go?

We didn’t go down in 87/88 but came desperately close having seemed entirely safe with 8 or 9 games to go. We lost something like 7 on the trot and needed a result in our final game to stay up. We were two down at half time and looked certain to be relegated. Somehow we scored four in the second half and survived.

Just one point to remember here. Derby are not a bottom three side based on points won this season. They are better than that. Their home form is won 10, drawn 7 and lost 3. They will be confident of picking up 6 or 7 points from their last three home games. Their away form is dire but are playing QPR at the right time.

The ball is very much in our court. All is in our hands to confirm safety but I don’t have much faith in this squad. We are the team with everything to lose on current standings and I don’t like that.
Hopefully we will do what we need to so that safety is guaranteed but let’s get it done sooner as needing points in the final games will be nerve racking.

Are you sure ?
I thought we won the Simod that year and got relegated
Please tell me my memory isn't deserting me

[AthleticoSpizz]

It’s not

We were

Zippo’s referring to season 1988/89 in Div 3

[Franchise FC]

It’s not

We were

Zippo’s referring to season 1988/89 in Div 3

Thanks - had me worried for a second

[Zip]

It’s not

We were

Zippo’s referring to season 1988/89 in Div 3

Yep I was a year out. We went down under Branfoot in 87/88 and then nearly went down again under him in 88/89.

[Zip]

It does appear Sharp is out of Friday’s game. They are also missing McGoldrick and Brewster which helps.

[Loafer]

I wonder if Luton will do a Barnsley next season if they don't go up this one

[YorkshireRoyal99]

I wonder if Luton will do a Barnsley next season if they don't go up this one

I'm wondering which club will end up in a situation like ourselves from this season. Huddersfield I know are looking for a new buyer for the club and Blackburn seemingly came out of nowhere this season and have looked as if they've collapsed at the death and I believe they've also had a soft transfer embargo last season as well, but that may have been for something separate to their financial situation.

[Stranded]

I wonder if Luton will do a Barnsley next season if they don't go up this one

Luton have built year on year though, whereas Barnsley was a real flash in the pan last year.

Barnsley only saved themselves on the last day 2 seasons back (thanks to the late points deduction for Wigan), and last season were struggling again until they happened to find the perfect manager, with the perfect style for the players they had. He left, along with their best player and they have returned to their mean.

Luton on the other hand finished 19th 2 years back and 12th last. So whilst they may drop away if they don't go up, they have more solid Championship foundations.

[Zip]

Luton are punching above their weight. Nathan Jones is doing a great job. Don’t think they will struggle next season but I would be surprised if they did as well.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Yeah I can't see Luton sustaining where they are unless they invest a lot more in the summer.

Nathan Jones though, similar to Ismael at Barnsley, just seems like the perfect fit for the club really and, as mentioned, have better foundations and quality than what Barnsley had/have in their team, so could see them being anywhere from 10th-15th next season, unless they can continue to build, similar tp Brentford perhaps.

[John Smith]

Luton were atrocious last night: Striker never looked like scoring that pen, toothless and ill-disciplined display throughout.

[Sutekh]

Reading’s additional issue, as it has been all season, is the crippling injury problems which really haven’t eased at all. 3 or 4 players were added to the list after Cardiff on top of the 5 already out. Now a couple of those may make the cut on Friday but it can’t help matters with the continual inability to train with anything like a full squad. Compare this with Peterborough (looks like none injured), Derby (2) and Barnsley (4) and you can perhaps see why there is a bit of extra pessimism about Reading’s chances.