Relegation watch

[skipper]

Remember when everyone said "we'll come straight back up" and that being in League 1 wouldn't be a disaster?

Going into League 2 would be an even bigger disaster.

You think having 8k in midweek is bad. It'll be half that in League 2. Even smaller wages. No chance of retaining the Training Ground status, if we even get to keep it. And absolutely no chance we'll come straight back up, let alone be able to stay up.

Look at how long Oxford stayed down, after going into the conference. 20+ years. How long since Swindon were above League 1? 30 years.

We could be in this for the long haul.

Good job I support the team, regardless of the division.

No, because it never happened.

I do so enjoy your epic trolling.

I never understand why people get so upset at you being a contrarian.

[Sutekh]

Remember when everyone said "we'll come straight back up" and that being in League 1 wouldn't be a disaster?

Going into League 2 would be an even bigger disaster.

You think having 8k in midweek is bad. It'll be half that in League 2. Even smaller wages. No chance of retaining the Training Ground status, if we even get to keep it. And absolutely no chance we'll come straight back up, let alone be able to stay up.

Look at how long Oxford stayed down, after going into the conference. 20+ years. How long since Swindon were above League 1? 30 years.

We could be in this for the long haul.

Good job I support the team, regardless of the division.

Yeah but, a great reset and new grounds and all that m8 as others have said above

I'm all in for new grounds and teams etc. I dont mind as long as it's FUN.

Just... it'll get a lot worse before it gets better, if we keep this current situation up.

It’s been doing that for three years. In six months time it’ll either be getting better at last or there’ll be nothing left to get any worse.

[Snowflake Royal]

The pitch side has only been getting better for the last year.

[SCIAG]

Remember when everyone said "we'll come straight back up" and that being in League 1 wouldn't be a disaster? [

In fairness I think everyone saying that this time is doing so with tongue firmly in cheek.

[Snowflake Royal]

Last time people were saying we'd go straight down to L2 actually.

[morganb]

What points total are we aiming for so as to not get relegated based on recent years figures?

[Sutekh]

What points total are we aiming for so as to not get relegated based on recent years figures?

60. 48 +12 to cover any points deductions.

[stealthpapes]

What points total are we aiming for so as to not get relegated based on recent years figures?

44-45 typically enough, depending on goal difference.
can be as little as 40, can be 47 or 48.

[windermereROYAL]

Oh brother

[Snowflake Royal]

What points total are we aiming for so as to not get relegated based on recent years figures?

46 has been safety in L1 for the last three seasons.

So +16 barring points deductions.

Abandonment, plus non payment of wages, plus administration would need a total of about 66.

[tidus_mi2]

Speaking of relegation watch, Northampton beat Peterborough tonight.

[Sutekh]

Speaking of relegation watch, Northampton beat Peterborough tonight.

Peterborough are collapsing since we played them. Northampton are a fairly capable side despite their struggles, usually get very difficult games from them.

[Snowflake Royal]

Over the last 10 years the average points for survival is between 45 and 47 depending on how you calculate it. The division seems to be weaker the last 5 years than it was the previous 5 as well.

Most of the relegation places already look sewn up by Cambridge, Shrewsbury and Burton. Cambridge have been barely surviving for a while, while Burton and Shrewsbury are on a clear downward trend. As are Rovers.

And Crawley are really struggling in their first season back in L1. With Northampton potentially looking at second season syndrome.

I'd be surprised if that isn't at least 5 of the bottom 7 finishers right there already.

[WestYorksRoyal]

Back to the discussion of how far can we fall, if you look at clubs who have been in our position, there are many positive examples of recovery but also many examples where it got worse. Luton obviously did NL to PL. Stockport are a smaller club than us with Championship aspirations and were in NL north for years, and let's not forget how dire Brighton's predicament got. If you compare us and Oxford, we've viewed ourselves as "bigger" for a long time, but at the time of the attempted Maxwell merger they were arguably bigger than us. Then in the 90s and 00s we got SJM while they had a string of poor owners, and they're only recovering now.

Then you have the likes of Bradford who are still stranded in L2, Chester who remain non-league. Comparatively speaking, Leeds were massive club who were the last non-PL champions and played in Europe; the Risdale tenure means they will likely never be that again given how the landscape has changed.

Relegation watch isn't serious this year unless we got into administration, way too many points on the board. But unless we finally get shot of Dai, it will happen and the question is timing. Players and staff will leave and we'll get progressively weaker.

The summer just gone was the best opportunity for this to be over with minimal damage. It can still be salvaged too if a sale happens this season.

Or, we could go down the administration and relegation to L2 route and be bought for £1 without a stadium or training ground. What does our route back to being a decent Championship club look like from there? Long and hard, that's what, though other clubs have also done it.

I don't know if we have any levers left to try and force the issue now, but be prepared for the possibility that we become a long term lower league team. I don't know how long we can last until the damage is irreversible; I think it shows extraordinary resilience from the those at the club beneath the boardroom that we haven't reached that point of no return already. If a complete sale along with the SCL and Bearwood happens this season, we simply build a squad at this level and go back to the Championship in a few years with this all a bad memory.

[leon]

Remember when everyone said "we'll come straight back up" and that being in League 1 wouldn't be a disaster?

Going into League 2 would be an even bigger disaster.

You think having 8k in midweek is bad. It'll be half that in League 2. Even smaller wages. No chance of retaining the Training Ground status, if we even get to keep it. And absolutely no chance we'll come straight back up, let alone be able to stay up.

Look at how long Oxford stayed down, after going into the conference. 20+ years. How long since Swindon were above League 1? 30 years.

We could be in this for the long haul.

Good job I support the team, regardless of the division.

No, because it never happened.

I do so enjoy your epic trolling.

I never understand why people get so upset at you being a contrarian.

this was the guy who called everyone bedwetters when all the rumours about financial disaster were coming through a few years back. Whilst things might have improved in the last 10 months the rest of our stay in League One has been fairly horrific and don't look like getting any better.

To try to say we're in a better state now than we were 3 or 4 years ago is deluded and shows a staggering lack of self awareness.

[Snowflake Royal]

No, because it never happened.

I do so enjoy your epic trolling.

I never understand why people get so upset at you being a contrarian.

this was the guy who called everyone bedwetters when all the rumours about financial disaster were coming through a few years back. Whilst things might have improved in the last 10 months the rest of our stay in League One has been fairly horrific and don't look like getting any better.

To try to say we're in a better state now than we were 3 or 4 years ago is deluded and shows a staggering lack of self awareness.

I was the guy calling out the financial mess we were in and the shit owner we had years before that, thanks. Saying we'd go down sooner or later the way we were run.

Reset is going pretty oxf*rd well on the pitch isn't it. Everyone's enjoyed the last season and a half much more than the last few in the Championship.

Didn’t get double relegated did we. Called that too.

[leon]

I do so enjoy your epic trolling.

I never understand why people get so upset at you being a contrarian.

this was the guy who called everyone bedwetters when all the rumours about financial disaster were coming through a few years back. Whilst things might have improved in the last 10 months the rest of our stay in League One has been fairly horrific and don't look like getting any better.

To try to say we're in a better state now than we were 3 or 4 years ago is deluded and shows a staggering lack of self awareness.

I was the guy calling out the financial mess we were in and the shit owner we had years before that, thanks. Saying we'd go down sooner or later the way we were run.

Reset is going pretty oxf*rd well on the pitch isn't it. Everyone's enjoyed the last season and a half much more than the last few in the Championship.

Didn’t get double relegated did we. Called that too.

Which made your continual bedwetting comments all the more baffling then - unless it was just you disagreeing. Surely not.
It's not just on the pitch that going down to L1 was going to affect. So isolating one area to prove your point doesn't represent the issues we have. Especially as we have lost our manager and are now prey to championship (and L1 ffs) clubs cheery picking our better players.

And I'm not sure that avoiding relegation to D2 is equatable to "going down will be the reset we need". But then it wouldn't a football forum if we considered nuanced argument.