89 Points?

[Elm Park Old Boy]

I don't know why everyone is getting so cross with snowball. IMO he posts some interesting stuff, is willing to debate it, and pretty consistently tries to back it up with reasoned argument and logic. Seems pretty much what a discussion board needs. Keep it up sir.

[Ian Royal]

I don't know why everyone is getting so cross with snowball. IMO he posts some interesting stuff, is willing to debate it, and pretty consistently tries to back it up with reasoned argument and logic. Seems pretty much what a discussion board needs. Keep it up sir.

Because most of us can see he hides behind stats which don't mean anything and is totally unwilling to accept or listen to any counter-argument or criticism of his posts.

[Snowball]

I don't know why everyone is getting so cross with snowball. IMO he posts some interesting stuff, is willing to debate it, and pretty consistently tries to back it up with reasoned argument and logic. Seems pretty much what a discussion board needs. Keep it up sir.

Because most of us can see he hides behind stats which don't mean anything and is totally unwilling to accept or listen to any counter-argument or criticism of his posts.

Whereas you, Ian, rely on nothing except your opinion.




AND BRISTOL (THAT GREAT TEAM). LOST TONIGHT TO A TEAM IN FIFTEENTH PLACE

[cmonurz]

What did Swansea do, out of interest?

[Skyline]

Oddly, Snowball fails to mention that they lost to the side in 21st place.

But I'm sure there's a valid stats-based reason for that...

[Snowball]

What did Swansea do, out of interest?

They lost. I saw it on the news. What does that have to do with the price of eggs?



It means their unbeaten run is broken at last.

It means their 17 game run doesn't look as good as their 16-game run did.

It means they have less chance of catching us.

it DOESN'T of course, mean that they cannot beat top clubs because they have (eg reading and Preston)

Bristol, meanwhile, have STILL failed to beat a single side in the top half of the table

[CMRoyal]

Bristol, meanwhile, have STILL failed to beat a single side in the top half of the table

Stop tempting fate.

[handbags_harris]

Bristol, meanwhile, have STILL failed to beat a single side in the top half of the table

These runs come to an end at some point.

[Snowball]

Oddly, Snowball fails to mention that they lost to the side in 21st place.
But I'm sure there's a valid stats-based reason for that...

The debate was about Bristol and the fact that their 'brilliant run" wasn't quite so brilliant, that their results against the top ten were atrocious. When I proved that totally and showed that 9 pf their wins were against bottom 6 sides and their other 4 wins were against 13-14-15-16th, cmonurz was lost for words so promised to drop this argument... Now we switch tack and attack Swansea?

IF Swansea lose/draw their next two then their run will start to look less special. Of course they could bounce back with 3 wins and then they'll be "one defeat in 20'

Most clubs have blips, surprises, like we would have expected 4/6 points v Southampton. That proves nothing except it's a tight league where any club on its day can beat any other.

Yesterday was Swansea's 17th game and their 16-game run was broken

Ignoring Cup Games (well u keep complaining about cup games)

If you add in FA Cup games Bristol have an extra draw and defeat, Swansea have another draw and win.

In pure points terms Bristol edge it over the last 6 and 12, Swansea do over the last 18


SWANSEA
Last 06 W4 D1 L1 13-05 13 Points
Last 12 W4 D7 L1 17-09 19 Points
Last 18 W8 D7 L3 33-21 31 Points (Wins include beating Reading, Preston & Burnley - defeats against Wolves, Birmingham and Watford)

BRISTOL
Last 06 W5 D0 L1 10-03 15 Points
Last 12 W7 D2 L3 19-12 23 Points
Last 18 W8 D5 L5 24-21 29 Points (All wins against bottom half sides - Defeats against Palace, Ipswich, Doncaster, Burnley, Preston)

[Snowball]

Bristol, meanwhile, have STILL failed to beat a single side in the top half of the table

Stop tempting fate.

If Bristol win v Reading on Saturday, it will, of course, be my fault.

It won't be Steve Coppell's fault, or the players' faults, or the fault of the ref.

I have TOTAL control over results. All I have to do is 'tempt fate"

[CMRoyal]

Bristol, meanwhile, have STILL failed to beat a single side in the top half of the table

Stop tempting fate.

If Bristol win v Reading on Saturday, it will, of course, be my fault.

It won't be Steve Coppell's fault, or the players' faults, or the fault of the ref.

I have TOTAL control over results. All I have to do is 'tempt fate"

SOHF or what?

[cmonurz]

cmonurz was lost for words so promised to drop this argument...

I'm not going to throw an insult here, as it has consistently only been you who has done that. But that's a ridiculous comment that, in Snowball style, twists the truth.

I've dropped out simply because you incessantly fail to address any of the points raised by others on this thread. City won 7 out of 8, against some teams in the bottom half of the table. Swansea were unbeaten in 16, including a run of 8 draws, 5 of which came against bottom half of the table teams. Your failure to acknowledge this, instead leaning on their good results against Birmingham and Cardiff, completely undermines your statistics and your arguments.

It's ridiculous as your statistical approach was initially refreshing on this board, but your failure to apply any context to your arguments, or address the views of others, is nothing short of arrogant, and completely spoils what would otherwise be a different and worthwhile contribution to this board.

But, each to their own.

[Hoop Blah]

I don't know why everyone is getting so cross with snowball. IMO he posts some interesting stuff, is willing to debate it, and pretty consistently tries to back it up with reasoned argument and logic. Seems pretty much what a discussion board needs. Keep it up sir.

I'm not cross, I'm just bored with his over reliance on stats and his general mis-use of them.

Football is not a game that lends itself that well to statistical analysis because there are far too many variables to influence the stats available.

Snowballs arguements are rarely backed up by his stats, they're just drowned in them and he comes across as lacking in the ability to judge with his eyes and form his own opinion away from trawling the internet for stats.

As comonurz has said he ignors any half decent challenge to his stats or opinions and I've generally stopped reading his posts as they tantamount to spam that just clog up any half decent football conversation.

[Ian Royal]

My opinion is based on observation of events, my arguments with snowball have been based on his own statistics and poor use of them.

When I post my opinion I don't feel the need to try and validate it by posting a screen and a half of superfluous figures. I try not to dress my opinion up as fact, because it it an opinion, even if I firmly believe it is often the most accurate.

interpretation of stats and figures is still opinion. Something some people seem incapable of understanding.

[Archie's penalty]

My problem with Snowball (and this is not a personal attack) is there is just TOO MUCH TEXT and most of it is numbers.

On a forum like this you need to break up your arguments. One of the way of doing this is by using short paragraphs. Another way is by using lots of sentences. Snowball does this but it's full of numbers.

He reminds me of Uncle Albert in Only Fools and Horses droning on. Some of the things Uncle Albert said were interesting but they were buried under the amount of other inconsequential tripe that he spouted. No offence like.

[Readingfanman]

Reading      86 +48
Wolves       84 +32
-------------------
Birmingham   84 +15
Swansea      80 +26
Cardiff      78 +21
Preston      73 +10
-------------------
Burnley      73 + 3
Bristol City 72 + 7
QPR          72 + 4
CrystalPalace70 +13
Sheff Utd    68 +12
Ipswich      64 + 6
Doncaster    62 -14
Plymouth     58 - 9
Sheff Wed    58 -14
Watford      56 - 7
Blackpool    54 -12
Derby        53 -10
Coventry     52 -11
Nottm Forest 50 -21
Southampton  45 -25
-------------------
Barnsley     45 -26
Norwich      42 -16
Charlton     40 -32


Reading to be on 83 before the final game, and then to beat Birmingham to win the title, Southampton to stay up after winning at Forest on the final day.

[SCIAG]

Bristol, meanwhile, have STILL failed to beat a single side in the top half of the table

Stop tempting fate.

If Bristol win v Reading on Saturday, it will, of course, be my fault.

It won't be Steve Coppell's fault, or the players' faults, or the fault of the ref.

I have TOTAL control over results. All I have to do is 'tempt fate"

Based on that, repeat after me:
Reading will lose ALL their remaining games this season 7-0.
They will promptly be relegated, even if that is a mathmatical impossiblity. Steve Coppell will not be given a life long contract. Royalee will be happy.
They will NOT resign Glen Little, and he will NEVER be fit, and because of that will NOT return to his best form.
No Arabian businessman will ever take over the club, and if he does he will not have the club's best interests at heart. He won't invest millions wisely, and we will not consolidate our place in the Premier League.
We will NOT win the FA Cup and Carling Cup that year.
Our wealthy benefactor who does not invest in the club will not build a state of the art training complex, which does not seem to be from the thirtieth century. It will not house the twenty best coaches in the world.
We will not win the Europa League three years running.
We will not slowly progress up the league.
We will not develop twenty two world class youngsters.
Coppell will not develop them into footballing gods.
They will not be able to play lovely football.
Schards, Floyde et all will not stop moaning.
We will not storm the Premier League, we won't win every single match, none of which will be remotely interesting. We won't even play nice football. We'll get all eleven men sent off every single match, after being booked in the first ten minutes for dissent, diving, or horrible tackles.
We will NOT do the PL, CL and WCC triple.
England will not lose on penalties.
I will not die happy.

[Arch]

AND BRISTOL (THAT GREAT TEAM). LOST TONIGHT TO A TEAM IN FIFTEENTH PLACE

1-0 away to a team that have won seven of their last eight. Selective use of stats again?

[Elm Park Old Boy]

Reading      86 +48
Wolves       84 +32
-------------------
Birmingham   84 +15
Swansea      80 +26
Cardiff      78 +21
Preston      73 +10
-------------------
Burnley      73 + 3
Bristol City 72 + 7
QPR          72 + 4
CrystalPalace70 +13
Sheff Utd    68 +12
Ipswich      64 + 6
Doncaster    62 -14
Plymouth     58 - 9
Sheff Wed    58 -14
Watford      56 - 7
Blackpool    54 -12
Derby        53 -10
Coventry     52 -11
Nottm Forest 50 -21
Southampton  45 -25
-------------------
Barnsley     45 -26
Norwich      42 -16
Charlton     40 -32


Reading to be on 83 before the final game, and then to beat Birmingham to win the title, Southampton to stay up after winning at Forest on the final day.

So we're 3rd before the last game, and having to win? I'm not sure I can cope with that.

[Readingfanman]

Reading      86 +48
Wolves       84 +32
-------------------
Birmingham   84 +15
Swansea      80 +26
Cardiff      78 +21
Preston      73 +10
-------------------
Burnley      73 + 3
Bristol City 72 + 7
QPR          72 + 4
CrystalPalace70 +13
Sheff Utd    68 +12
Ipswich      64 + 6
Doncaster    62 -14
Plymouth     58 - 9
Sheff Wed    58 -14
Watford      56 - 7
Blackpool    54 -12
Derby        53 -10
Coventry     52 -11
Nottm Forest 50 -21
Southampton  45 -25
-------------------
Barnsley     45 -26
Norwich      42 -16
Charlton     40 -32


Reading to be on 83 before the final game, and then to beat Birmingham to win the title, Southampton to stay up after winning at Forest on the final day.

So we're 3rd before the last game, and having to win? I'm not sure I can cope with that.

No because in real terms, we would inevitably oxf*rd it up.