The RUN-IN

[Snowball]

I still wouldn't count out Cardiff for Automatic promotion

as wolves , birmingham and ourselves take points off each other cardiff will catch up even further.

!!

With your record of predictions I wouldnt be going around highlighting others errors

You mean like when Bristol went fourth and I said, "They will finish out of the play-offs, finishing 9th/10th/11th.."?


Like when I said they are useless against top-ten teams and haven't beaten one all season?

OK they beat READING, but in 46 games they had just that one win against a top-ten side

[Snowball]

????

ie we were both wrong

Sorry, but getting 1-2-3-4 slightly wrong 1-2-4-3 and that down to one unlucky ball rebounding off the bar (both ends)
is hardly in the same bracket (with 9 or less games to go) picking Cardiff for second when they actually missed the play-offs.

[weybridgewanderer]

????

ie we were both wrong

Sorry, but getting 1-2-3-4 slightly wrong 1-2-4-3 and that down to one unlucky ball rebounding off the bar (both ends)
is hardly in the same bracket (with 9 or less games to go) picking Cardiff for second when they actually missed the play-offs.

If you look at the very first post on this thread I think you will see the top 6 you predicted was

87 Wolves
84 Reading

84 Birmingham
81 Cardiff
78 Sheff Utd
75 Swansea

you later posted the current table and said that would be the teams that finished in the top 3

[CMRoyal]

38 71 Wolves
38 68 Birmingham
36 64 Reading
37 60 Sheffield Utd
35 59 Cardiff City
37 57 Swansea City
38 57 Bristol City
38 57 Preston
36 55 Burnley
37 51 Ipswich Town

Wolves and Birmingham are 4 points and two points ahead of last year's 1-2 at the same time;
Reading are a point better off than last year's then-third but with a game in hand

Sheffield United, currently 4th. are a point worse off than WBA was but have played two games more

All things being equal, this top three is the final top three.

And that was right except for one game,

In other words, it was wrong.

[Snowball]

38 71 Wolves
38 68 Birmingham
36 64 Reading
37 60 Sheffield Utd
35 59 Cardiff City
37 57 Swansea City
38 57 Bristol City
38 57 Preston
36 55 Burnley
37 51 Ipswich Town

Wolves and Birmingham are 4 points and two points ahead of last year's 1-2 at the same time;
Reading are a point better off than last year's then-third but with a game in hand

Sheffield United, currently 4th. are a point worse off than WBA was but have played two games more

All things being equal, this top three is the final top three.

And that was right except for one game,

In other words, it was wrong.

Nope. I said "all other things being equal"

Do you not think losing 0-1 to the side with the best away record counts for something?

[Snowball]

If you look at the very first post on this thread I think you will see the top 6 you predicted was

87 Wolves
84 Reading

84 Birmingham
81 Cardiff
78 Sheff Utd
75 Swansea

you later posted the current table and said that would be the teams that finished in the top 3

Try again, what I posted was this:




This is a final table based on a virtually impossible two-points a game for all clubs.

and: Of course any club putting a run together could do a lot of damage to other clubs.

and Bristol, for example could hurt Cardif, Swansea, Burnley, Preston & Ipswich.

and Sheffield ~Utd could "do" us.

87 Wolves
84 Reading

Now "virtually impossible" hardly suggests a prediction, wouldn't you agree?

[cmonurz]

You said 'this top three is the final top three', and they turned out not be. Why do you try to pretend otherwise?

[weybridgewanderer]

I have been man enough to admit I was wrong, cardiff were not the threat they looked in february. I'll also admit our away form meant my fear we would drop out the play offs was unfounded.

I admit you tried endlessly to convince us statistics proved we would go up automatically, we didn't

I admit you posted the league table as it was in March and said the top three teams at the end of the season would be the 3 that were top then, it wasn't

I admit you predcited we would beat bristol at home cause they hadn't beaten a top 6 side, we didn't

I admit you said our away form was so good we would beat blackpool away, we didn't

I admit it you were right and I was wrong

[Snowball]

You said 'this top three is the final top three', and they turned out not be. Why do you try to pretend otherwise?

Because that is not what I said. What I said (precisely) was:

All things being equal, this top three is the final top three.



Do you think the following two statements are equal?

All things being equal, this top three is the final top three.

This top three is the final top three.


If these two statements are equal, then what is the purpose of the phrase, "All things being equal"?

How the f-ck can you pretend that the game against Sheffield United was not a factor?

[weybridgewanderer]

how did the sheffield game stop things from being equal?

did brum and wolves not have to play sheffield at home over the course o fthe season?

were we restricted to playing sheffield with only 9 mean?

did they get a 2 goal start?

was this an extra game that was not known about when you made your prediction?

How exactly did this game stop making all things equal?

[cmonurz]

So you are claiming that your initial point was 'if every team at the top gets the same number of points between now and the end of the season, then the current table is the final table'?



Give it a rest.

[Snowball]

I admit you tried endlessly to convince us statistics proved we would go up automatically, we didn't

Reading's fall from grace has been totally unprecedented. The bookies have had it wrong until a couple of weeks ago. Could you explain how in these last few posts I'm being accused of saying Reading would be automatically promoted, AND accused of saying they would be third?

I admit you posted the league table as it was in March and said the top three teams at the end of the season would be the 3 that were top then, it wasn't

If you quote me, quote me EXACTLY. I also said "all other things being equal". You can't ignore the game versus Sheffield United. They had a fabulous away record and did us. I am on record as saying, "Sheffield United may well "do us". Did I say anything in this thread about that game? Nope.

I admit you predcited we would beat bristol at home cause they hadn't beaten a top 6 side, we didn't

Quote me EXACTLY, please. At the time people were raving about Bristol City's "amazing" form
and I was making the point that all their wins were against bottom-half clubs. I made the point
that they had failed badly against top clubs. That was true before the Reading game, and has remained
true AFTER the game. In a 46-game season Bristol have managed to beat just one top-ten side, once.

Big deal that we were crap on the day and lost. What about my other prediction about Bristol
when they were actually in fourth place and I said they would drop out of the play-offs and
finished 9th/10th/11th?

[Snowball]

So you are claiming that your initial point was 'if every team at the top gets the same number of points between now and the end of the season, then the current table is the final table'?



Give it a rest.

Can you read, or can you not read?

What does "impossible" mean to you?

What does "virtually impossible" mean to you?

[Snowball]

how did the sheffield game stop things from being equal?

How exactly did this game stop making all things equal?

Are you really so obtuse? Of course, if there are nine games to go
and the third club will be playing the fourth, that game can totally
alter things. It's not an "averaging out thing"

Had we beaten Sheffield (and on chances that EASILY could have happened) we would have finished on 80 points, Sheffield 77...

That is the nature of six-pointers fer Chrissakes

You can't pretend that the games against Sheffield and Birmingham were trivial


I ask again, what's the purpose of the phrase "All other things being equal"?

[weybridgewanderer]

I've no idea why you said it, seems like all it does is give you a cop out

at the end of the day we played every team twice, once at home, once away, as did everyone else

to me that makes all things equal

I have no idea what you understand it to mean,

you seem to suggest that because brum and wolves had already played sheffield at home then this game would only be considered when making a prediction if we had beaten them

[Ian Royal]

how did the sheffield game stop things from being equal?

How exactly did this game stop making all things equal?

Are you really so obtuse? Of course, if there are nine games to go
and the third club will be playing the fourth, that game can totally
alter things. It's not an "averaging out thing"

Had we beaten Sheffield (and on chances that EASILY could have happened) we would have finished on 80 points, Sheffield 77...

That is the nature of six-pointers fer Chrissakes

You can't pretend that the games against Sheffield and Birmingham were trivial


I ask again, what's the purpose of the phrase "All other things being equal"?

If we'd beaten Ipswich at home and Sheffield lost to Blackpool away the same would have happened. Whilst it may appear significant, over the course of the season it wasn't especially significant.

[Arch]

In fairness, if you look at every game in the whole Chamionship and you're only allowed to change the outcome of one, there's only one change that gets us promoted. This suggests that that one game has more significance causally than any of the others (at least on prevailing theories of causation). But since it wasn't the Sheff U home game, I'm not sure you can make much mileage out of the significance of that one game.

[cmonurz]

Tbf Snowball, when you said 'all other things being equal, the current table will be the final table', I think I and everyone else assumed you meant you thought Reading would finish third.

After all, if you weren't making that prediction, then all you actually meant by that sentence was 'the current table may be the final table, OR it may not be, depending on results'.

[Mad Dog's Ghost]

Snowball, I've noticed that every time you come on HNA big time with your tedious stats, RFC immediately f-up big time. For the sake of RFC, could you please give it a rest for the next week or so. Cheers.

[Southbank Old Boy]

Reading's fall from grace has been totally unprecedented. The bookies have had it wrong until a couple of weeks ago. Could you explain how in these last few posts I'm being accused of saying Reading would be automatically promoted, AND accused of saying they would be third?

How can you say its unprecedented when we did almost exactly the same thing last season?

The bookies didnt get it wrong, I bet they made a decent profit on the book they were running on promotion, thats all they try to do. They play the percentages to ensure they cover their bets and make a profit

At almost any point in the last six months we have been a position where we had a better chance of gaining automatic promotion than most other sides in the division, the bookies odds reflect that, it doesnt mean they think it was going to happen

If you quote me, quote me EXACTLY. I also said "all other things being equal". You can't ignore the game versus Sheffield United. They had a fabulous away record and did us. I am on record as saying, "Sheffield United may well "do us". Did I say anything in this thread about that game? Nope.

What exactly do you mean by "all things being equal" then?