Long - time for a change?

[Svlad Cjelli]

Agreed Dirk, it's just not worth banging your head against the wall. The ignore button is quite useful at times.

Back to Long though, I think we had the discussion on here that I thought McDermott had backed himself and Long into a corner and that he'd gambled a lot on Long pulling through it.

I thought at the time, and still do, that McDermott let it get too far down that road and probably should've had an alternative to Long in place and used them so that the pressure on Long didn't get quite so strong. Long coming through at the other end is great for the lad, and the club, but if we could've just secured a few more points and a bit more momentum over that period we'd have been up there challenging at the time.

Maybe, maybe not. Maybe Long might not have recovered from the blow, and if he had been dropped who would have replaced him? BMc might have been starting again with someone else who might not have come good. I do think Long is a better player now for what he went through in the first half of the season, so we got the best possible outcome in the end.

But really, no-one can tell - that's the great thing about football, it's all about opinions, observation, and speculation.

[Hoop Blah]

If Long had been taken out of the firing line earlier, or not given such responsibility at the stage he did, then I don't think it would've been such a big deal for him.

There was certainly a point, and probably quite early in his dry run, that it he was at the point where he had to be stuck with.

I've always thought we were light a centre forward (the Manset signing has helped, even if it was 4 ro 5 months too late) and it's arguable whether that's through financial contraints or through McDermotts choice (the January signings would suggest it was through choice though). That was my issue with McDermott at the time.

Would Long have come through that spell and been as good as he is now? No, probably not, but then again we'd probably have had another half a dozen or so points and then everything changes again.

I still didn't think Long was good enough to have the kind of run he's been on since Christmas though.

[Ian Royal]

Snowball seems to struggle with the concept that whilst all statistics are evidence, not all evidence is statistics. And that opinion is formed on evidence, whether that evidence is quoted or tangible or not.

The evidence may be weak, or the opinion ill conceived, but people don't just turn up and splurt opinions without any basis on which to make them. Be it ACTIM Index & goals scored / minute on pitch, watching every game live, or reading some newspaper write ups.

And just because the evidence is weak, does not necessarily invalidate the analysis of it and opinion which that has caused to form.

[Ian Royal]

Agreed Dirk, it's just not worth banging your head against the wall. The ignore button is quite useful at times.

Back to Long though, I think we had the discussion on here that I thought McDermott had backed himself and Long into a corner and that he'd gambled a lot on Long pulling through it.

I thought at the time, and still do, that McDermott let it get too far down that road and probably should've had an alternative to Long in place and used them so that the pressure on Long didn't get quite so strong. Long coming through at the other end is great for the lad, and the club, but if we could've just secured a few more points and a bit more momentum over that period we'd have been up there challenging at the time.

Agree - and in fact I think if McDermott had taken a relatively early step it could have worked out as well, if not better. That's a massive if, but we clearly struggled early on, and Church was actually in decent form going into the season. As an example, if he'd got a run as a chance ahead of Long after the first half dozen games or so, he might not be having the confidence & form problems he is in now.

And we know that Long is at his best after Xmas and coming in with something to prove - see the end of the last two seasons as evidence.

Ultimately, it ain't done us too much harm, but I think we got lucky.

[readingbedding]

Watching a player actually play often helps to make a valid opinion.

[Snowball]

Snowball seems to struggle with the concept that whilst all statistics are evidence, not all evidence is statistics. And that opinion is formed on evidence, whether that evidence is quoted or tangible or not.

The evidence may be weak, or the opinion ill conceived, but people don't just turn up and splurt opinions without any basis on which to make them. Be it ACTIM Index & goals scored / minute on pitch, watching every game live, or reading some newspaper write ups.

And just because the evidence is weak, does not necessarily invalidate the analysis of it and opinion which that has caused to form.

So you're saying that someone who attends all home games, many away games, then watches the highlights and full matches as well, reads all the reports, but still has gut-instinct feelings like other fans but tries to rein in his own subjectivity , who played until he was 38, has watched football live from Champions League down to Sunday Leagues, and saw his first game sixty years ago, is somehow less able to deduce?

What frustrates me is that too many seem to think I can't be fan-blind and stupid at a game, just like them.

The difference is I have learned that a subjective approach is invariably wrong and I look for proper supporting evidence.

And you, Ian, are the man who said Shane Long would NEVER, EVER score 20 goals at this level.


BTW, a brilliant analysis based on weak evidence overall is weak analysis

[southbank1871]

I'm not sure anyone is disputing that you have a decent knowledge of football and have made some decent calls about players. It's just that you're a bit tedious and pretty mental is all.

[Hoop Blah]

Spot on southbank. Most of the debate with snowball has been about his mis-representation of stats and figures and the over emphasise he puts on them let alone his defence of them when their proved totally wrong, too weak to consider or inaccurate.

I've agreed with many of his ideas and views, I've called for a Liegertwood type player for about 2 seasons to give this side the presence it was lacking, but the way he puts his case and his general attitude to any discussion suggests someone who's a little unhinged!

[Snowball]

Watching a player actually play often helps to make a valid opinion.

Of course it does. Now think what you might be missing or over-emphasising.

[readingbedding]

Watching a player actually play often helps to make a valid opinion.

Of course it does. Now think what you might be missing or over-emphasising.

I've not missed anything.

There's no need to say sorry mind.

[Snowball]

Agreed Dirk, it's just not worth banging your head against the wall. The ignore button is quite useful at times.

Back to Long though, I think we had the discussion on here that I thought McDermott had backed himself and Long into a corner and that he'd gambled a lot on Long pulling through it.

I thought at the time, and still do, that McDermott let it get too far down that road and probably should've had an alternative to Long in place and used them so that the pressure on Long didn't get quite so strong. Long coming through at the other end is great for the lad, and the club, but if we could've just secured a few more points and a bit more momentum over that period we'd have been up there challenging at the time.

Agree - and in fact I think if McDermott had taken a relatively early step it could have worked out as well, if not better. That's a massive if, but we clearly struggled early on, and Church was actually in decent form going into the season. As an example, if he'd got a run as a chance ahead of Long after the first half dozen games or so, he might not be having the confidence & form problems he is in now.

And we know that Long is at his best after Xmas and coming in with something to prove - see the end of the last two seasons as evidence.

Ultimately, it ain't done us too much harm, but I think we got lucky.

Let me get this right. We might have done BETTER than Long 22, Hunt 8, Church 5, Manset 2 (with 6 games to play)?

It looks extremely likely that our top-four scorers' total this season
will be second only to the brilliant 05/06 106-point season

22-19-15-10 = 66 2005-06
20-12-12-09 = 53 2009-10
22-09-08-08 = 47 2010-11 (With six games still to play)
18-13-09-07 = 47 2008-09
19-09-06-05 = 39 2004-05
14-11-09-05 = 39 2003-04
16-09-09-04 = 38 2002-04
14-13-04-04 = 35 2006-07
10-06-06-06 = 28 2007-08





McDermot's choices have got us to 5th, on a great run, good chance of automatic, odds-on for the POs at
least and by far the form side in the POs. He has also got Shane's value up to 4-7 Million and rejuvenated
Hunt. Even Churchy has got 5 goals and seems to be coming back to the player he was last season.

And, BTW this season Church has started 13 League games (no goals) and been sub 22 times (5 goals)

It's not as if he's been out in the cold. He HAS had plenty of chances

To put that in perspective, Shane Long had 17 League starts in his first three seasons

[Snowball]

Watching a player actually play often helps to make a valid opinion.

Of course it does. Now think what you might be missing or over-emphasising.

I've not missed anything.

There's no need to say sorry mind.

Of course you haven't...

[readingbedding]

Well why say it then?

Blimey...

Although I am pleased you took my advice and didn't apologise.

A humble backtrack is fine by me.

[Snowball]

Oh...

[readingbedding]

Thanks.

[Snowball]

Dear Jesus. Don't you understand irony/sarcasm?

I am saying you DO miss stuff. Nobody sees everything or reacts totally objectively to what they see.

[readingbedding]

No I don't, I see what I see.
Which to me is everything.

Again, no need to say sorry.

[Snowball]

I have spoken to God. I feel so privileged.

[readingbedding]

Doesn't exist.

Off to Scunny now, remember, you can't beat seeing players in the flesh to base your own valid opinion.

[T.R.O.L.I.]

FAO Snowball - Still waiting for a response to my question.....

Also, all of my posts you have quoted appear to have come from the same day - that being 11/12/10 (the evening of the Coventry game). Do you not think that it is possible to make an valid observation at a given point in time given the facts available but then that same observation ends up incorrect?

All this holier than thou crap doesn't cover up how bad Long's first half of the season was (which is what my post was based on) - Mick Gooding even said the same on BBCRB tonight

Just to reiterate - I am delighted that Long has been banging in the goals since Christmas and am also delighted that McD kept him in the team when I (and others) thought he should have been rested. I still, however, stand by my original post at the time it was posted.