Inability to convert corners?

[Snowball]

You ask me to define what an attacking free kick is. Well you're the one banding the stat about, perhaps you should define it so that we are clear on what you're comparing with corners this time around.)


BUT I DID. I SAID IT WAS IN APPROXIMATE AGREEMENT WITH IAN ROYAL'S QUESTION
(HE SAID F-Cs WITHIN FORTY YARDS ) and I said Personally, I'd say shots within 25 yards
or FCs close enough that we can put the ball in the box for the big guys (like corners)



Personally I'd say an attacking free kick is one where we think we have a chance of creating a goalscoring chance from it, ie it's probably in the last third of the pitch and the centre halfs are encouraged to go for it. There is no way we've only had 8 of those all season.

You may be right, but how can we settle that?

(a) If we are only including the last 3rd of the pitch (33%) (and excluding the penalty area) then that's about 20% (or less) of the actual pitch, agreed?

(b) Do we have ANY idea where the opposition gives away free-kicks? I would say, opposition players are far more likely to give away free-kicks
the further they are from their goal. In the area a free-kick is almost always a pen, so they try to avoid that. They try to avoid giving away frees
within shooting range, also. Not too much of a problem giving away a free in the centre-circle, but one on the edge of the box can have serious consequences.

Based on that, just a sensible argument, not facts, I would say 80% of free-kicks would happen OUTSIDE the danger area IF where a free-kick
happened was random. But it isn't random, so I'd say we can halve that figure (an approximation). Half of 20% is 10%

We have had 145 fouls against us this season (two penalties so 143 possible free-kicks)

10% of that is 14, not a long way from the 10 we can quote.

[Snowball]

That is such a big IF though that your post should've stopped there as the rest is totally useless unless you accept the stat as anywhere near accurate.



BUT I DO ACCEPT THE STAT AS BEING THE BEST ONE AVAILABLE, WHILE RECOGNISING IT MIGHT NOT BE "ROBUST"

HOWEVER, WORKING OUT SOME COMMON-SENSE (SEE LATER POST) I SERIOUSLY DOUBT THAT WE HAVE HAD AS MANY AS 20 GENUINE CHANCE-MAKING FREE-KICKS THIS SEASON.




As for promising that we've had more than 1 attacking free kick every game and half or (whatever it would work out to be),
that might be finger in the air stuff but it's more credible than 8 attacking free kicks in what 13 or 14 games (can't remember how many we've played now).


TEN league games. 1 genuine attacking free-kick chance per game = 10 chances. 2 = 20


Seriously, THINK. How many times in those ten games have we had a DANGEROUS free-kick
where we seriously fancied our chances of scoring or forcing a save?

We have had just 53 attempts on target, 55 off target this season. That's every kind of attack.

108 in ten games. Less two penalties, less four goals from corners... so about ten chances per game

We know we've had about 90 corners. Apart from the 4 goals from them, how many corners produced a ball wide
or header over the bar or saved by the keeper or blocked on the line? They would make up some proportion
of the 100 chances to be accounted for. If only 20 of those registered a chance (shot/header on/off target)
we are down to an average of eight chances a game.

OK, so far?

We can't know that the official site didn't miss an attacking free-kick with no result, but we CAN make a sensible check on the facts.

We can look at the chances mentioned (eg 4 on target, 5 off) and compare that to the official stats mentioned (eg 4 on target, 7 off)
and from that make a sensible estimate of how many chances, on or off target, failed to be written about. I would presume only those
that are off-target are likely to be overlooked, as those on target are either goals or saves or hit the woodwork.

[Ian Royal]

Corners and "attacking freekicks" are difficult to compare because obviously corners are taken from a set position and freekicks can be anywhere. Then you also, IMO, have to remove from the sample freekicks which involved a direct shot at goal, because you essentially can't do that from a corner.

And obviously you then have the problem that freekicks might be recorded in statistics, but not necessarily whether they are attacking or not.

For arguments sake I think I said I'd call a freekick of interest to this point one within 40 yards of the goal... Now should you take out ones that are taken with a short pass, or played backwards or sideways? Personally I think not, because you would include short corners, or corners played to outside the box.

Basically our fundamental problem is, that there is no way of comparing the detailed information about scoring rates from corners, with scoring rates from freekicks after making the sample roughly comparable, or attacking open play in wide positions, or attacking open play in central positions.

Therefore it's impossible to use the stats to draw any conclusions on whether it is more productive to play for a corner, a freekick or keep the ball in open play because you have nothing to compare the corner statistics to.

That's why this whole comparison bollocks is utterly flawed and the only point in looking at corner conversion rates is to compare like for like between different teams, not different types of play. So unless someone wants to post a league table of corners taken and goals scored, there is quite definitely no point in carrying on this discussion for any reason other than to let snowball post more stats for no purpose other than making him look stupid and other posters to assist him.

[Snowball]

Club stats list 10 chances. Narrative shows 10 chances. Preston
Club stats list 09 chances. Narrative shows 09 chances. Ipswich
Club stats list 21 chances. Narrative shows 13 chances. Barnsley
Club stats list 05 chances. Narrative shows 05 chances. Middlesboro
Club stats list 11 chances. Narrative shows 07 chances. Millwall
Club stats list 13 chances. Narrative shows 15 chances. Palace
Club stats list 11 chances. Narrative shows 09 chances. Leicester
Club stats list 10 chances. Narrative shows 09 chances. Forest
Club stats list 11 chances. Narrative shows 11 chances. Portsmouth
Club stats list 17 chances. Narrative shows 08 chances. Scunthorpe

In fact the narrative of chances is often exactly right


118 Chances listed 96 in narrative

Narrative underestimates chances (as per stats) by 22/118 = 18%


It is therefore reasonable to SUGGEST that attacking free-kicks are underestimated by 18%
which means you can add 22% to the narrated chances/FCs.

Narrated attacking free-kicks = 8. Add 22% = 2, total 10. It's hard to believe it's a lot more than that

[Z175]

God this thread was boring enough already!!

Back on point - we simply don't look like having a chance from a corner. Ok maybe you get 1 goal every 37 corners, but its surely far far below par to get only 1 half chance from 24 corners!

On that we would need more like 370 to get a goal and even then I wouldn't bet on it.

Harte is clearly on a different wave length at the moment etc but we could at least try some variation in direction, length and taker. McAnuff, Harte, Howard, and taking it short to Kebe might help.

[Snowball]

Except, Ian, when you read the reports you find they aren't THAT far away from the official stats,
stats on chances that the BBC use and people on here have quoted.

We seem to have a shortfall (against stats) of narrated chances when we've had 15-20 plus chances
maybe because the official site then just highlights the most exciting chances, those closest to
producing a goal.

But a mis-match of 22% is not horrendous and we can reasonably presume that if the official
site says there have been X attacking free-kicks, then in all probability that's accurate to
within the 22% already worked out.


So genuine attacking free-kicks likely-to-create-a-chance or force-a-save or a-good-defensive-clearance
is probably about one a game, slightly higher than the 8 in 10 found.

For it to be wildly different from the 8 recorded would mean that the reports and stats are hopelessly wrong.

So my best estimate is we score once every ten genuine attacking free-kicks...

Currently about twice the rate we score from corners, less than I'd've thought

[Snowball]

Last season we scored a goal every 82.5 corners

This season we are 1 in every 20 so far. Four times better.

[Millsy]

Have we turned a corner?

[Hoop Blah]

snowball, are you saying a match report is going to mention every attacking free kick, irrespective of it's outcome? A detailed match report is much more likely to mention every goal scoring chance created because they're genuine highlights of a game, and genuinely worthy of mention in a report that's supposed to give an idea of the key moments in a game.

How many corners does the narrative mention in relation to the number taken in the stats?

[Hoop Blah]

Last season we scored a goal every 82.5 corners

This season we are 1 in every 20 so far. Four times better.

Are we allowed to show any signed of excitement over corners now then?

If not, can you confirm at what ratio we have to get to before I can clap my hands in 'excitement' and when I dare raise my voice in anticiaption?

[brendywendy]

do we really need 10 of the 20 first page threads to be an argument over the validity/relevance of snowballs stats.

maybe we could just have a sticky thread for this purpose, and this could allow the rest of us to argue incessantly about whether John madejski has stolen all th emoney in peace

thankyou.

[Hoop Blah]

I think we probably need accurate breakdown of the number of snowball stats per thread and threads per forum before we could answer that with any confidence brendy.

I'm happy to put my finger in the air and say no we don't though...

[Snowball]

Last season we scored a goal every 82.5 corners

This season we are 1 in every 20 so far. Four times better.

Are we allowed to show any signed of excitement over corners now then?

If not, can you confirm at what ratio we have to get to before I can clap my hands in 'excitement' and when I dare raise my voice in anticiaption?

You may clap with one hand

[Snowball]

snowball, are you saying a match report is going to mention every attacking free kick, irrespective of it's outcome?

DO I SAY THAT?

I would suspect that it would mention near-enough 100% of free-kicks that are actual shots
and mention over the bar, wide, saved, blocked or scored.


A detailed match report is much more likely to mention every goal scoring chance created because they're genuine highlights of a game,
and genuinely worthy of mention in a report that's supposed to give an idea of the key moments in a game.


DAMN, WHY DIDN'T I THINK OF THAT?

IF I HAD THOUGHT OF THAT I COULD HAVE ALREADY SAID SO.

YOU KNOW, LIKE POINTING OUT THAT THE NUMBER OF ON/OFF TARGET ATTEMPTS
ARE UNDER-ESTIMATED BY THE NARRATIVE OF THE GAME. YOU KNOW, LIKE 22%, SAY...

How many corners does the narrative mention in relation to the number taken in the stats?


DON'T KNOW AND DON'T CARE.

So we know we average 1.5 goals per game, we know we average about ten corners a game,
we know that the ball is only in play (allegedly) for 65 minutes in an average game, and we know
that we average 50% possession, and we know that probably 50% of our possession is in our own half


Now take 65 minutes and halve it = 32.5 minutes possession, halve that = 16.25 minutes in the opponent's half
only about 1/3 of that will be in the last third, actually in the box or just outside, about 5.4 minutes...

Now don't forget to take out the 15-20 seconds per corner, say 3 minutes, leaving 2.4 minutes.


it only takes a second to score a goal, but just how many seconds does it take for an open-play move to generate one
of our average ten chances per game, how much time is lost every time we take a free-kick, whether it's a shot or cross?

The actual amount of real time where we are on the brink of a goal is very small as a percentage of the 90 minutes,
yet on top of corners, penalties, open-play moves, you seem to imagine we have time for 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10 free-kicks
in the danger area. is Dr Who playing in midfield?

Of course you HAVEN'T said ten free-kicks. All you said, while woffling, was, "more than 1". Did you mean 1.1? 2?

How many dangerous, attacking, free, kicks do you reckon we get per game, on average.

[Stranded]

Don't know, don't care and frankly the way you prattle on I'm beginning to question why I bother to watch football at all.

[Snowball]

Don't know, don't care and frankly the way you prattle on I'm beginning to question why I bother to watch football at all.

Well Ian Royal doesn't

[Hoop Blah]

snowball, are you saying a match report is going to mention every attacking free kick, irrespective of it's outcome?

DO I SAY THAT?

I would suspect that it would mention near-enough 100% of free-kicks that are actual shots
and mention over the bar, wide, saved, blocked or scored.


A detailed match report is much more likely to mention every goal scoring chance created because they're genuine highlights of a game,
and genuinely worthy of mention in a report that's supposed to give an idea of the key moments in a game.


DAMN, WHY DIDN'T I THINK OF THAT?

IF I HAD THOUGHT OF THAT I COULD HAVE ALREADY SAID SO.

YOU KNOW, LIKE POINTING OUT THAT THE NUMBER OF ON/OFF TARGET ATTEMPTS
ARE UNDER-ESTIMATED BY THE NARRATIVE OF THE GAME. YOU KNOW, LIKE 22%, SAY...

How many corners does the narrative mention in relation to the number taken in the stats?


DON'T KNOW AND DON'T CARE.

So we know we average 1.5 goals per game, we know we average about ten corners a game,
we know that the ball is only in play (allegedly) for 65 minutes in an average game, and we know
that we average 50% possession, and we know that probably 50% of our possession is in our own half


Now take 65 minutes and halve it = 32.5 minutes possession, halve that = 16.25 minutes in the opponent's half
only about 1/3 of that will be in the last third, actually in the box or just outside, about 5.4 minutes...

Now don't forget to take out the 15-20 seconds per corner, say 3 minutes, leaving 2.4 minutes.


it only takes a second to score a goal, but just how many seconds does it take for an open-play move to generate one
of our average ten chances per game, how much time is lost every time we take a free-kick, whether it's a shot or cross?

The actual amount of real time where we are on the brink of a goal is very small as a percentage of the 90 minutes,
yet on top of corners, penalties, open-play moves, you seem to imagine we have time for 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10 free-kicks
in the danger area. is Dr Who playing in midfield?

Of course you HAVEN'T said ten free-kicks. All you said, while woffling, was, "more than 1". Did you mean 1.1? 2?

How many dangerous, attacking, free, kicks do you reckon we get per game, on average.

I think you're losing the plot. The report is more likely to mention shots on goal and chances than they are attacking free kicks that don't actually come to much. You don't seem to have grasped that bit very well among the above.

The best comparison between number of free kicks that happen and the number mentioned would be the same counts for corners wouldn't it? Not goal chances which are by definition key moments in the game.

How many attacking free kicks do I think we have during the average game? I'd guess at somewhere between 3 and 5. That might be high, it might be low, but I'm 100% certain that it's more than 1, it's certainly not less than 1.

[Snowball]

How many attacking free kicks do I think we have during the average game?
I'd guess at somewhere between 3 and 5.
That might be high, it might be low, but I'm 100% certain that it's more than 1, it's certainly not less than 1.

Well, if YOU'RE CERTAIN, then what you say must be true.

I agree with you, "because you're certain."

Incidentally, 8 plus 25% is 10. 10/10 is 1, so whose saying we get less than one attacking free kick per game?


Hmmm, 3 to 5 but it might be high, so could be 2 then, or it might be low, so could be 6 then, so you now have a range of 300%

So you actually say it might be under 3, (eg 2) and the figures show it's at least 1...



PS I'm certain the 20-year old blonde au-pair next door wants to sleep with me.

[From Despair To Where?]

Jeez, you really are like a pub bore that loves the sound of his own voice and thinks he knows it all. By the resounding lack of posts offering you any semblance of support, I'm pretty sure anyone who did enjoy your stats has long since departed through either boredom or out of embarrassment for you.

[Hoop Blah]

How many attacking free kicks do I think we have during the average game?
I'd guess at somewhere between 3 and 5.
That might be high, it might be low, but I'm 100% certain that it's more than 1, it's certainly not less than 1.

Well, if YOU'RE CERTAIN, then what you say must be true.

I agree with you, "because you're certain."

Incidentally, 8 plus 25% is 10. 10/10 is 1, so whose saying we get less than one attacking free kick per game?


Hmmm, 3 to 5 but it might be high, so could be 2 then, or it might be low, so could be 6 then, so you now have a range of 300%

So you actually say it might be under 3, (eg 2) and the figures show it's at least 1...



PS I'm certain the 20-year old blonde au-pair next door wants to sleep with me.

How many games have we played? Why are you only using ten of them? Even so your stats are looking at being down 100% per game going on the figures above....I can see why people might question their accuracy with that margin for error!