Goal scoring problems?

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Ian Royal
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Goal scoring problems?

by Ian Royal » 05 Oct 2010 01:02

Most of us think we're a bit on the weak side upfront and that, long-term, goals could be a bit of a problem for us. Yes, we're looking like a 15+ goalscorer is unlikely. Even two at the 12-15 level might be a bit of a struggle. But is it really all as bad as it appears?

So I've been having a bit of think about it, and I thought I'd have a look to see just how far off the pace we are for a reasonably successful finish (5th - 8th).

Currently we're scoring at a rate of 1.3 goals a game. Which totals 59 over a season.

I reckon that it would be reasonable to assume the following could be achieveable for individuals, or groups of players when it comes to goalscoring this season.
Kebe - 15 - ambitious, but he scored 9 in the second 23 league games last season, and has scored 4 in 10 so far this season... so I think it's doable if he stays fit, and more importantly just plain stays.
Long + Church + Hunt - 20 - surely it's not too much to ask that between the three of them they can manage an average of less than 7 goals each. Last season they managed 18. Hunt was injured most of the season and Rasiak was taking up plenty of starts...
McAnuff + HRK - 4 - a couple each, HRK is half way there already.
Mills + Pearce - 6 - so it's unlikely they'll both play regularly, but Pearce got 4 last season and they're a third of the way there between them already.
Harte - 6 - 2 down and takes freekicks and sometimes penalties. Not too ambitious!
Karacan + Howard + Gunnarsson + Tabb - 6 - No prolific scorers in midfield, but between the four they should manage half a dozen.
Total of 57.

Similar to our current scoring rate and I thought about who'd score and how many before I worked out how we're scoring this season.

That's all well and good, but utterly useless without a comparison. So I looked at the last 3 seasons we've been in the championship for the goals scored for teams finishing in 5th - 8th. The range is 40 - 74 with a rough average of about 63.

So the good news seems to be we're really not actually that far off the sort of number of goals we likely need to be scoring to be in and about the play offs.

League games only of course. Genuinely not tried to to pick biased figures or anything, I had no idea what I'd find by comparing. And I think it shows what we could do if we keep Kebe and pick up a proper quality goalscorer in Janaury.

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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by Snowball » 05 Oct 2010 09:09

Number of goals scored is not the only factor. Defence matters too. It's GOAL DIFFERENCE that matters.

Lowest GD for Champions in the last six seasons is 28
Lowest GD for Runner -up in the last six seasons is 14
Lowest GD for Promotion in the last six years is 10

Reading are currently on a GD of +5 after 10 games.
If that continues they would have a GD of 23 by the end of the season.

Based on current form (last six games, without Gylfi, allowing for the first four games) they'd have a GD of 33

Here's how GD affects final position (play-off places and promotion) for the last six years.

Reading, on the last six games are very high on the list of clubs doing well in the last six years (8th best of 36)
Reading on their last ten form look set to end up smack in the middle of that top six.
In the last six years, nine of the 18 promoted clubs had a goal-difference LOWER than Reading's projected 23

2006 1 99 32 GD = 67 Promoted READING 1
2010 1 90 35 GD = 55 Promoted 1
2005 2 82 35 GD = 47 Promoted 2
2008 1 88 45 GD = 43 Promoted 1
2010 2 89 48 GD = 41 Promoted 2
2004 1 79 39 GD = 40 Promoted 1
2005 1 76 41 GD = 35 Promoted 1
2011 ? ?? ?? GD = 33 Reading-2011 based on current form <<<<<<<<<<<
2010 3 72 40 GD = 32
2009 4 72 40 GD = 32 (Reading)
2006 2 76 46 GD = 30 Promoted 2
2007 1 76 47 GD = 29 Promoted 1
2006 4 59 30 GD = 29
2005 3 85 56 GD = 29
2009 1 80 52 GD = 28 Promoted 1
2004 3 62 35 GD = 27
2007 4 81 55 GD = 26
2009 3 64 39 GD = 25
2007 2 67 42 GD = 25 Promoted 2
2007 6 77 53 GD = 24
2006 3 77 53 GD = 24 Play-off Winners 3
2011 ? ?? ?? GD = 23 READING-2011 based on first ten games <<<<<<<<<
2004 2 64 42 GD = 22 Promoted 2
2004 4 67 45 GD = 22
2010 4 73 54 GD = 19
2006 5 57 38 GD = 19
2006 6 67 48 GD = 19
2008 3 65 47 GD = 18 Play-off Winners 3
2009 2 54 37 GD = 17 Promoted 2
2010 5 61 45 GD = 16
2010 6 74 58 GD = 16 Play-off Winners 3
2008 5 58 42 GD = 16
2007 3 62 46 GD = 16 Play-off Winners 3
2008 2 69 55 GD = 14 Promoted 2
2009 5 72 60 GD = 12 Play-off Winners 3
2009 6 66 54 GD = 12
2004 5 84 72 GD = 12
2005 4 71 60 GD = 11
2004 6 72 61 GD = 11 Play-off Winners 3
2005 6 66 56 GD = 10 Play-off Winners 3
2005 5 67 58 GD = 9
2008 6 63 56 GD = 7
2007 5 59 56 GD = 3
2008 4 54 53 GD = 1

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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by Big Foot » 05 Oct 2010 09:30

So to sum up this thread, Ian Royal tried to be Snowball before being OWNED by his master :lol:

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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by Ryn » 05 Oct 2010 09:46

Hmm, on one side we have Ian with his goal scoring stats.

On the other, we have Snowball, claiming that it's goal difference that wins you the league.

Who's right?

There's only one way to find out!

FFFFFFFFIIIIIIIIIIIIGHHT!!!!!!

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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by Snowball » 05 Oct 2010 10:37

I'm not fighting anyone who carries A TREE to games.


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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by royal-biscuit-man » 05 Oct 2010 12:15

Yes goals are few and far between in the Reading camp at the moment. Vs Barnsley, two goals were converted from set pieces, so that seems to be our strength of goals. We need a goal scorer for sure.

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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by ellpryjon » 05 Oct 2010 14:00

Snowball I'm not fighting anyone who carries A TREE to games.


:lol:

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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by Sarah Star » 05 Oct 2010 14:12

Big Foot So to sum up this thread, Ian Royal tried to be Snowball before being OWNED by his master :lol:

Yeah, but I can understand Ian's original post.

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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by georgerob » 05 Oct 2010 15:41

We should play 3-4-3 with Hunt, Church and Long upfront and Cummings dropped and keep the others the same as the previous game. This would be the most attacking line up possible and should gurantee that one of the strikers will score from open play :)

Federeci
Harte Mills Zurab
McAnuff, karacan, Armstrong, Kebe
Church Hunt Long


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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by Y21_Royal » 05 Oct 2010 17:38

Good post Ian.

People bemoan the lack of goals from our forwards (sometimes fairly) but they tend to ignore the overall contribution made. End of the day, it doesn't matter who's scoring the goals, so long as someone is

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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by Maguire » 05 Oct 2010 18:04

Snowball Number of goals scored is not the only factor. Defence matters too. It's GOAL DIFFERENCE that matters.

Lowest GD for Champions in the last six seasons is 28
Lowest GD for Runner -up in the last six seasons is 14
Lowest GD for Promotion in the last six years is 10

Reading are currently on a GD of +5 after 10 games.
If that continues they would have a GD of 23 by the end of the season.

Based on current form (last six games, without Gylfi, allowing for the first four games) they'd have a GD of 33

Here's how GD affects final position (play-off places and promotion) for the last six years.

Reading, on the last six games are very high on the list of clubs doing well in the last six years (8th best of 36)
Reading on their last ten form look set to end up smack in the middle of that top six.
In the last six years, nine of the 18 promoted clubs had a goal-difference LOWER than Reading's projected 23

2006 1 99 32 GD = 67 Promoted READING 1
2010 1 90 35 GD = 55 Promoted 1
2005 2 82 35 GD = 47 Promoted 2
2008 1 88 45 GD = 43 Promoted 1
2010 2 89 48 GD = 41 Promoted 2
2004 1 79 39 GD = 40 Promoted 1
2005 1 76 41 GD = 35 Promoted 1
2011 ? ?? ?? GD = 33 Reading-2011 based on current form <<<<<<<<<<<
2010 3 72 40 GD = 32
2009 4 72 40 GD = 32 (Reading)
2006 2 76 46 GD = 30 Promoted 2
2007 1 76 47 GD = 29 Promoted 1
2006 4 59 30 GD = 29
2005 3 85 56 GD = 29
2009 1 80 52 GD = 28 Promoted 1
2004 3 62 35 GD = 27
2007 4 81 55 GD = 26
2009 3 64 39 GD = 25
2007 2 67 42 GD = 25 Promoted 2
2007 6 77 53 GD = 24
2006 3 77 53 GD = 24 Play-off Winners 3
2011 ? ?? ?? GD = 23 READING-2011 based on first ten games <<<<<<<<<
2004 2 64 42 GD = 22 Promoted 2
2004 4 67 45 GD = 22
2010 4 73 54 GD = 19
2006 5 57 38 GD = 19
2006 6 67 48 GD = 19
2008 3 65 47 GD = 18 Play-off Winners 3
2009 2 54 37 GD = 17 Promoted 2
2010 5 61 45 GD = 16
2010 6 74 58 GD = 16 Play-off Winners 3
2008 5 58 42 GD = 16
2007 3 62 46 GD = 16 Play-off Winners 3
2008 2 69 55 GD = 14 Promoted 2
2009 5 72 60 GD = 12 Play-off Winners 3
2009 6 66 54 GD = 12
2004 5 84 72 GD = 12
2005 4 71 60 GD = 11
2004 6 72 61 GD = 11 Play-off Winners 3
2005 6 66 56 GD = 10 Play-off Winners 3
2005 5 67 58 GD = 9
2008 6 63 56 GD = 7
2007 5 59 56 GD = 3
2008 4 54 53 GD = 1


Why on earth would you randomly throw in a projected GD from our last 6 games when you've already done it from the first 10?

I might as well say "based on the last game we're going to end up with a GD of 0"

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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by PEARCEY » 05 Oct 2010 18:07

^You just did.

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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by Snowball » 05 Oct 2010 18:19

Maguire


Why on earth would you randomly throw in a projected GD from our last 6 games when you've already done it from the first 10?

I might as well say "based on the last game we're going to end up with a GD of 0"


It is hardly a "randomly thrown in" set of games.

It's ALL games since the side was drastically altered with the loss of Gylfi
and bringing in Harte & Zurab (and the surprise of Armstrong.)

We are "a different side"from the Gylfi era.

Imagine we had W4 D0 L0 with Gylfi, then he left. Would it be accurate to project our future
based on those four wins? Of course not!

So, we have one estimate of form (10 games) (but it's confused because part of it included a 7 Million pounds player we now DON'T have)
and we have ANOTHER, more recent six games, and more relevant estimate of form. (a) because it's the most recent (b) because it doesn't include Gulfi.


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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by Maguire » 05 Oct 2010 18:33

Gylfi's presence (or lack thereof) is but one variable in a whole sea of thousands upon thousands of variables that affect the result of a football match. You talk about "the Gylfi era" as if he was some footballing god floating round the pitch giving us three points every week. He wasn't, he was 1/11th of the side that stepped onto the pitch on a Saturday.

You also attach importance to the acquisition of Zurab when he's only played in (I think) two of your slice of six matches. Hardly a "drastically altered" team. What about every other player who comes in an out of the side every week? Why not focus on eg. Marcus Williams' (non-)appearances?

On recent form we're going to finish the season on 46pts etc etc

Sham.

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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by rhroyal » 05 Oct 2010 18:43

Of course a 20 goal a season striker would be nice, but it can irritate me when people go on about one as if it's the most important thing in a side and absolutely essential. It's not. I'd much rather have a squad where the wingers can chip in, central midfielders grab a couple and we're dangerous from set pieces, on top of the strikers getting 10 or so. That will do fine. In 04/05 we had a 20 goal a season striker in Kitson; he wasn't enough. We relied upon him and the rest of the team didn't contribute enough.

I'd much rather have what we've got now, where I can see goals coming from Kebe, McAnuff, Howard, Mills, Harte and possibly Karacan, as well as hopefully a half decent return from the front men. Of course in 05/06 we had goals from around the team and 3 strikers pushing the 20 mark. It was special, rare and unstoppable. We can't really expect it every season.

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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by Ian Royal » 05 Oct 2010 19:16

snowball I think you'll find it's no more goal difference that definitively matters than goals scored. It's points that count at the end of the day. We could finish a season with + 20 goal difference (if only one of Brendy's predictions come off) and still get relegated on 48 points.

The point is this is a topic about one specific indicator of performance and you've totally missed the point and gone off on one about something related, but different.

The point is there is a feeling we lack a striker to score us enough goals to do well this season, and that in general we don't have enough goals in the side. My original post is about whether or not that, and only that, is necessarily a valid concern - or whether actually we're not looking that bad on the goals front.

But as usual, thanks for the digs that make you look more stupid than me, and the spamming of endless numbers with very little comment. For a professional statistician, as you claim to be, you're presentation sucks major arse.

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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by skipper » 05 Oct 2010 19:23

Jesus. WTF are you all banging on about? It's just a game :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by Arch » 05 Oct 2010 19:30

wng

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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by Ian Royal » 05 Oct 2010 19:35

Arch wng


One of many Coppellisms I'm a big fan of.

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Re: Goal scoring problems?

by Snowball » 05 Oct 2010 20:51

Ian Royal snowball I think you'll find it's no more goal difference that definitively matters than goals scored. It's points that count at the end of the day. We could finish a season with + 20 goal difference (if only one of Brendy's predictions come off) and still get relegated on 48 points.

The point is this is a topic about one specific indicator of performance and you've totally missed the point and gone off on one about something related, but different.

The point is there is a feeling we lack a striker to score us enough goals to do well this season, and that in general we don't have enough goals in the side. My original post is about whether or not that, and only that, is necessarily a valid concern - or whether actually we're not looking that bad on the goals front.

But as usual, thanks for the digs that make you look more stupid than me, and the spamming of endless numbers with very little comment. For a professional statistician, as you claim to be, you're presentation sucks major arse.


You're not very bright are you?

A team can go the route of "Just score more than the opposition" and win games 6-5
(a la, once-upon-a-time, real Madrid) or score incredible numbers of goals but let as many in.

OR they can play an extremely tight game, seeking to win games 1-0 or get 0-0 draws away etc.

It's a specific POLICY. Like the way the Italian League was for many years (the latter)

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