betting

redscot
Member
Posts: 285
Joined: 22 Mar 2011 03:46

betting

by redscot » 07 Mar 2012 18:21

Can someone with time on their hands work out how much profit one would have had if one bet £10 on every league game up to now for Reading to win. I assume the profit would be large this season. (I would like to know, to see if it is worth while doing next season.)

User avatar
Wimb
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 4397
Joined: 21 Nov 2005 09:43
Location: www.thetilehurstend.com

Re: betting

by Wimb » 07 Mar 2012 18:49

Yeah good luck finding someone to do that... :|

waitingforyears
Member
Posts: 15
Joined: 05 Aug 2006 02:17
Location: San Francisco, California

Re: betting

by waitingforyears » 07 Mar 2012 19:18

I would not recommend doing this next year when we are in the Premier League.

User avatar
RobRoyal
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 2900
Joined: 26 Apr 2004 16:11
Location: Surely you're joking?

Re: betting

by RobRoyal » 07 Mar 2012 20:44

redscot Can someone with time on their hands work out how much profit one would have had if one bet £10 on every league game up to now for Reading to win. I assume the profit would be large this season. (I would like to know, to see if it is worth while doing next season.)


How would one do this without an archive of bookies' odds for every game of the season. Do you think such a thing exists?

Vic_Flange
Member
Posts: 160
Joined: 10 Apr 2005 03:55
Location: Hang on, I had it a minute ago...

Re: betting

by Vic_Flange » 07 Mar 2012 21:11

RobRoyal
redscot Can someone with time on their hands work out how much profit one would have had if one bet £10 on every league game up to now for Reading to win. I assume the profit would be large this season. (I would like to know, to see if it is worth while doing next season.)


How would one do this without an archive of bookies' odds for every game of the season. Do you think such a thing exists?


Do you also want seperate bets or any accumulators?

The odds would change from the start of the season when we were a bit po0 to now to when were great; plus of course who we were playing, and Home or Away, injuries to both te.... Ouch, my head just imploded.


User avatar
RFCUK
Member
Posts: 986
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 10:07
Location: Manchester

Re: betting

by RFCUK » 07 Mar 2012 21:21

I presume he's after match day odds of us winning on the day of that game.

So your initially outlay would be £460.. Without having historical matchday betting info I couldn't help, but it'd in interesting if some one knew.

I'd also like to know from that, if you put a tenna on before each game for reading to be promoted..

User avatar
Royal Rother
Hob Nob Subscriber
Hob Nob Subscriber
Posts: 21285
Joined: 13 Apr 2004 23:22
Location: The handsome bald fella with the blue eyes

Re: betting

by Royal Rother » 07 Mar 2012 21:21

redscot Can someone with time on their hands work out how much profit one would have had if one bet £10 on every league game up to now for Reading to win. I assume the profit would be large this season. (I would like to know, to see if it is worth while doing next season.)


I suspect the only way the profit would be large is if some kind of a staking plan had been used.

Straight £10 bets wouldn't generate a large profit.

Depends what you mean by large though.

HTH.

(It doesn't.)

User avatar
Ian Royal
Hob Nob Legend
Posts: 35156
Joined: 15 Apr 2004 13:43
Location: Playing spot the pc*nt on HNA?

Re: betting

by Ian Royal » 07 Mar 2012 21:24

Anywhere you can get archived copies of a betting paper, or a local newspaper that would have odds for each game? That's probably the only way to get the info, I can't imagine bookies would hold onto it....

Good luck finding a mug to do that for you.

redscot
Member
Posts: 285
Joined: 22 Mar 2011 03:46

Re: betting

by redscot » 07 Mar 2012 21:34

I thought everything was on the net this days so it would not take long to fish out the odds for each game. And then add up. (In Readings case there is a lot of adding up.) I do not bet, maybe others who do keep a track of the odds.

If Reading go up, then of course the bet would be on losing the games. (I seem to remember a 8 game losing streak last time...)


User avatar
Ian Royal
Hob Nob Legend
Posts: 35156
Joined: 15 Apr 2004 13:43
Location: Playing spot the pc*nt on HNA?

Re: betting

by Ian Royal » 07 Mar 2012 21:41

redscot I thought everything was on the net this days so it would not take long to fish out the odds for each game. And then add up. (In Readings case there is a lot of adding up.) I do not bet, maybe others who do keep a track of the odds.

If Reading go up, then of course the bet would be on losing the games. (I seem to remember a 8 game losing streak last time...)


It's pretty unlikely odds from games last month, let alone August are going to still be on a betting website. What would be the point in leaving them there? They are worthless bandwidth.

Vic_Flange
Member
Posts: 160
Joined: 10 Apr 2005 03:55
Location: Hang on, I had it a minute ago...

Re: betting

by Vic_Flange » 07 Mar 2012 21:42

Royal Rother
redscot Can someone with time on their hands work out how much profit one would have had if one bet £10 on every league game up to now for Reading to win. I assume the profit would be large this season. (I would like to know, to see if it is worth while doing next season.)


I suspect the only way the profit would be large is if some kind of a staking plan had been used.

*Straight £10 bets wouldn't generate a large profit. *

Depends what you mean by large though.

HTH.

(It doesn't.)


* Indeed not. All you will get at Ladbrokes for us to beat Leicester is a whopping 21/20

Save your money or name the next goalscorer, or do some spread betting. Ideally, save your money :)

RFCSPACE
Member
Posts: 663
Joined: 22 Jul 2011 11:30

Re: betting

by RFCSPACE » 07 Mar 2012 21:52

If you assume home games we're usually favourites at around 6/4 -> 18 games so far and away we're usually underdogs at around 9/4 -> 16 games so far.

10 home wins would yield £5 profit per game -> £50 -> less the 8 games we haven't won (-£80) would be a loss of £30.
9 away wins would yield £12.50 profit per game -> £112.50 -> less the 7 games we haven't won (-£70) would be a profit of £42.50.

So overall you'll be looking at a whopping £12.50 profit for your £340 investment.

Very rough I know, but betting on everything doesn't really work. The law of averages would imply you'd break even over time.

User avatar
RG30
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 5942
Joined: 26 Jul 2005 20:42

Re: betting

by RG30 » 07 Mar 2012 22:15

RobRoyal
redscot Can someone with time on their hands work out how much profit one would have had if one bet £10 on every league game up to now for Reading to win. I assume the profit would be large this season. (I would like to know, to see if it is worth while doing next season.)


How would one do this without an archive of bookies' odds for every game of the season. Do you think such a thing exists?


The Racing Post keeps track and they list the 10 most profitable teams and the £10 least profitable teams every Saturday. I'll keep a look out this week.


User avatar
Skin
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 1054
Joined: 31 Aug 2004 20:24
Location: You are now about to witness the strength of street knowledge

Re: betting

by Skin » 07 Mar 2012 22:21

just lump the lot on Long Run next Friday. Only have to wait 10 mins to collect. No season long faff.

The Cube
Member
Posts: 886
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 18:52

Re: betting

by The Cube » 07 Mar 2012 23:00

RFCSPACE The law of averages would imply you'd break even over time.

Hardly. Bookmakers work on a percentage profit so you would lose out by that margin over time. Easiest way to see how this works is to look at handicap betting in a two-horse race where the handicap ensures that a draw is not a potential outcome (for example, the Super Bowl with a handicap expressed as plus or minus x.5 points for some whole number x). Then generally both teams are 6/5 on. Unless I'm out of date and it's now 5/4 on.

User avatar
RG30
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 5942
Joined: 26 Jul 2005 20:42

Re: betting

by RG30 » 07 Mar 2012 23:30

The Cube
RFCSPACE The law of averages would imply you'd break even over time.

Hardly. Bookmakers work on a percentage profit so you would lose out by that margin over time. Easiest way to see how this works is to look at handicap betting in a two-horse race where the handicap ensures that a draw is not a potential outcome (for example, the Super Bowl with a handicap expressed as plus or minus x.5 points for some whole number x). Then generally both teams are 6/5 on. Unless I'm out of date and it's now 5/4 on.


More like 10/11 :|

User avatar
taipeiroyal
Member
Posts: 68
Joined: 11 Mar 2005 09:49
Location: taiwan

Re: betting

by taipeiroyal » 08 Mar 2012 04:07

Rather than betting on each game, why not just have an each way on winning the league, finishing top six or getting promotion at the start of the season...much less hassle and, especially top six finish, good chance of coming out with a wad of cash.
My current bets are 9/4 top six finish (taken out 2 months ago)
and promotion at 6/1 (5 weeks ago)

User avatar
Wimb
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 4397
Joined: 21 Nov 2005 09:43
Location: www.thetilehurstend.com

Re: betting

by Wimb » 08 Mar 2012 04:40

If you want to have a look at how our odds have changed over the season then this is a decent starting point

http://thetilehurstend.co.uk/2011/08/03 ... ew-201112/

To make you really sick...

http://thetilehurstend.co.uk/2011/09/27 ... r-27-2011/

Reading's title odds were 66/1 then, with promotion odds of 12/1

User avatar
Royal Prince
Member
Posts: 338
Joined: 07 May 2011 21:30

Re: betting

by Royal Prince » 08 Mar 2012 06:50

I was thinking about this the other day strangely enough. As the season goes on the returns you'd get on a Reading win would diminish so it probably isn't as lucrative as you'd first assume.

I reckon if you'd picked a team lower down the table with a decent number of wins, such as Leeds or Hull, you'd stand to make more.

User avatar
Wimb
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 4397
Joined: 21 Nov 2005 09:43
Location: www.thetilehurstend.com

Re: betting

by Wimb » 08 Mar 2012 07:13

Wimb If you want to have a look at how our odds have changed over the season then this is a decent starting point

http://thetilehurstend.co.uk/2011/08/03 ... ew-201112/

To make you really sick...

http://thetilehurstend.co.uk/2011/09/27 ... r-27-2011/

Reading's title odds were 66/1 then, with promotion odds of 12/1


Even worse, Stan James were offering 150/1 on Reading to win the title in December :shock:

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Fluff, Google [Bot], Snowball, Sutekh and 521 guests

It is currently 28 Apr 2024 07:19