Reasons I'm worried about next season.

User avatar
royal_rumble
Member
Posts: 117
Joined: 12 Sep 2011 11:38

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by royal_rumble » 24 Apr 2015 10:29

Difficult to judge Clarke too harshly, he did pick up a disjointed squad low on morale... although there are some worrying signs.

If the trend continues post summer assuming he has been able to bring some of his own players in etc. it'll be a different story.

User avatar
Maguire
Hob Nob Subscriber
Hob Nob Subscriber
Posts: 11202
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 12:26

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by Maguire » 24 Apr 2015 10:57

Extended-Phenotype I think scrutinising the manager in response to misplaced praise or relentless defence is fair enough. That's just a conversation. But I think running him down and over analysing him for the sake of it, at this stage, is pretty worthless.

Like anyone he needs time and investment to put a team together, to plug the holes and get a clean start. I may not be agreeing with the Steve Clarke revolution on here or agree that we have seen any significant improvement but I still want him to succeed (like any of our managers) and feel we can only truly analyse him when this fog of uncertainty surrounding the club made up of many factors we understand little about has lifted.

New season, (hopefully) new team, fresh start - and good luck to him.


Agree with all this other than the "Steve Clarke revolution" - what is this?

I don't read every post on here but the majority of people strike me as having learned something from their enthusiasm at the appointment of Adkins and stayed rather purse-lipped regarding Clarke's prospects.

Personally, I don't have any strong thoughts about Clarke either way. Proper fence-sitting, "let's see what happens next season" stuff from the Maguire quarter.

User avatar
Sutekh
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 9226
Joined: 12 Feb 2014 14:05
Location: Undiscovered pyramid somewhere in Egypt

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by Sutekh » 24 Apr 2015 11:00

Ian Royal I don't tend to think of myself as negative about Reading FC. Whilst I have lost patience with some managers quite drastically, I'm virtually always positive about the future of the club and I believe strongly in giving someone time to build. Not that I won't call for someone's head if I think there's a risk of a Bad Things™ happening in the short-term.

But this year, for the first time in 20 years, I think the next season is going to be bad. I'm not looking forward to it and here's why.

In virtually every significant measure I can think of Steve Clarke's performance is worse than his predecessor.

Points per game: -------------1.00 vs 1.19
Win Ratio: ------------------------23% vs 33% (32% vs 38% including cup games)
Loss Ratio: ------------------------45% vs 48%
Clean Sheets: --------------------1 every 4.4 games vs 1 every 3 games
Scoring Nil: -----------------------1 every 2.2 games vs 1 every 3 games
Goals scored per game:------0.82 vs 1.24
Goals conceded per game:--1.32 vs 1.71

Giving Clarke 5 games grace after taking over, and ignoring the table before 10 games have been played, we've averaged 17th position under him, compared to 14th under his predecessor.

So we win less, we earn fewer points, we keep fewer clean sheets, we score less, and we score nil more often. But we concede less and we lose ever so fractionally less. Forgive me for not being enthused.

Our inadequacies have been painfully obvious this season. We don't have a goalscorer. We're woefully short of both quality and options on the left flank. We can't centre the ball accurately or dangerously. And we don't get bodies in the box from midfield (even the strikers aren't in there that often!).

Clarke's answer to this and the loss of Murray, was to sign Yakubu. A player, of questionable age, that he has given the grand total of 328 league minutes to in the three months we've been paying him. For a return of zero league goals.

Since then he's brought in Appiah, who's played 97 minutes of league football and also scored zero league goals. He's loaned out Dominic Samuel who went on to get six goals for Coventry before falling foul of another nasty injury.

But "Clarke's only had the notoriously difficult January transfer window and very little money to make signings though!” I hear you cry. “He's going to rebuild the squad this summer and sort out our problems!”

Well the first part of that is definitely true. Although he was able to put together deals for promising young quality in the form of Chalobah and Ake from Chelsea whilst he's been here.

So lets have a look at Clarke's record with attackers in the transfer market previously. Is there anything to suggest he knows what he's doing when it comes to bringing in new attackers?

Well Romelu Lukaku obviously sticks out, but I think it's unlikely Chelsea are going to loan us someone of his quality, especially seeing as Clarke's had four months without managing it already. Bamford, for example, seems unlikely to be sent to us to develop further given his performance at Middlesbrough.

Other than that it's Rosenberg, Anelka, Vydra and Anichebe. From what I can find at least.

Rosenberg – didn't score in 33 appearances
Anelka – didn't score in 7 appearances
Vydra – 3 goals in 25 appearances
Anichebe – 1 goal in 11 appearances

Well, er... that doesn't bode well. I didn't actually know what I was going to find when I posed that question. I didn't think it would be that bad though.

Will Clarke actually have that much money to make the changes necessary?
Okay, so we've shifted Drenthe and Guthrie. Yes, we can lose Kelly and Andersen. And either cut the wages of Pearce, Karacan and Federici or lose them too.

But our parachute payments drop significantly next season too. And how many of you would have any of those last five high in your 'want to move on list'? I know mine features Pogrebnyak, Blackman, Akpan and Robson-Kanu far more prominently. All here for another year courtesy of Zingaravich Financial Disasters Ltd.

Assuming someone isn't crazy enough to offer them a better deal.
What are Leeds up to at the moment? QPR like over-expensive wasters don't they?

So basically, money is unlikely to be available to pay for top class Championship strikers and wingers. (Please let the changes to FFP mean I'm wrong about this!)

Finally, two of our bright lights under Adkins at the start of the season have gone back faster than a stunt man on a wire under Clarke. He's already sold Cox once (at West Brom). He doesn't seem to fancy midfielders who can (sometimes) make creative passes - Norwood. And this also bodes badly for Aaron Kuhl, one of the major talents from the Academy.

Maybe I'm suffering more than I realise from a Wembley hangover. But I just can't see any good news on the horizon. → Yay, we've survived a relegation no one really expected to happen anyway!

Oh shit, what about next season without the abject Wigan, Millwall and Blackpool.

Er...Rotherham...Chesterfield if the win the play offs maybe ... er... Help!?!

Someone, anyone, please give me some genuine reasons to think something good might actually happen.


:roll:

Reason for our current mess is a Russian with no money who tried his best but without any money all he could do was effectively mortgage the club beyond it's means.

Said Russian is now gone and some stability is back in the club (it appears) and we're getting back in control of the finances so that we'll have a fighting chance to wheel and deal in the summer within the limitation of FFP.

The wheeling and dealing in the summer is expected to be extensive with money needed from sales to aid the reconstruction as much as letting players go at the end of their contracts. Next season I expect a much more balanced and flexible squad giving us more depth and options off the bench. It will comprise a mixture of current youngsters, loanees, free transfers and probably a couple of big (for us) signings.

To top it off we have quality manager who talks plain sense and has more tactical ability than the previous incumbent who, while completely short changed by the backroom shenanigans, couldn't get the team organised in the slightest.

I, for one, am very hopeful for next season and can't wait for it to kick off, my expectation is to be challenging for the play offs.

User avatar
bobby1413
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 6986
Joined: 07 Apr 2005 10:55
Location: Reading

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by bobby1413 » 24 Apr 2015 11:15

Stats are not always the best measure of success or potential success. The stats you quote are correct (I haven't checked), but I still have far more faith and confidence in SC than in NAdkins. I think we've improved on the pitch as a team in terms of our intensity, play making, defensively and our structure just seems more sound.

I said on Day 1 of this season that we need to just write it off and sort out finances, stabalise after the Russian fecked off and look towards the 2015/2016 season.

We've done that. We've avoided relegation, we've cleared up the ownership saga, we now need to off load some players (this has been started), and re-build the core of the team.

I think we're in a positive place as a club considering the outlook back in September/October. I'm well behind SC and have confidence he's the right man to improve on this season.

Greatwesternline
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 1210
Joined: 09 Apr 2008 14:36

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by Greatwesternline » 24 Apr 2015 11:45

I love it when people talk about sales and wheeling and dealing.

Who are we going to sell that will generate revenue, who we don't want to keep?

For players to to leave for money they need to be desirable to other teams. If they are desirable to other teams then surely they should be desirable to us.

People say, let's sell Guthrie, let's sell Kanu, let's sell Pogrebnyak, let's sell Kelly, let's sell Ferdinand, let's sell Blackman, let's sell insert here who is on high wages and is not deemed to be good value for money.

Well other clubs aren't go to be jumping around giving us the odd 500,000 here or there for players on high wages who aren't performing for us. (Kanu, Pog, Guthrie, Ferdinand (maybe))

It's not easy so sell players you dont want, the few players we have ever sold for decent money were players who ideally we would have kept.

The only players i can see us owning who would be worth enough money to sell which generates enough money to by better replacements of our own are players we want to keep, such as Hector, Obita (not that i'm too convinced) or WIlliams.

I just can't see us selling all these players and paying transfer fees to improve the squad. They arent worth much to us, they wont be much worth to anyone else.


User avatar
No Fixed Abode
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 15798
Joined: 26 Apr 2009 11:30
Location: THE NATIONAL FRONT DISCO

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by No Fixed Abode » 24 Apr 2015 11:47

I think we can conclude from this thread than Ian needs to get out a little more.

User avatar
Z175
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 1702
Joined: 19 Jul 2004 18:52
Location: All time championship championes

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by Z175 » 24 Apr 2015 12:14

Ian Royal Yes, we can lose Kelly and Andersen. And either cut the wages of Pearce, Karacan and Federici or lose them too.

But our parachute payments drop significantly next season too. And how many of you would have any of those last five high in your 'want to move on list'? I know mine features Pogrebnyak, Blackman, Akpan and Robson-Kanu far more prominently. All here for another year courtesy of Zingaravich Financial Disasters Ltd.


Steve Clarke "I know what I want to do over the summer, but I want to do and what you can do can sometimes be two different things.
"I'm clear in my mind what I want to do but whether circumstances allow me to do, that is something I cannot control."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/32432855

Sounds like Steve Clarke agrees. We'd expect to lose Pog, Blackman, Akpan and HRK, but will probably keep them and lose McCleary, Federici, Pearce and Karacan. I can't see the banks allowing us to offer new deals until the wagebill is reduced and I agree no one is going to take Pog off our hands!

That said we are in a far better position than last summer. We are not facing unpaid HMRC bills, the owners haven't fled the country ,we have lost Drenthe and Guthrie off the wagebill and another 14? academy players have had a go, with Hector and Cooper looking valued squad members already.

So while we shouldn't be expecting a promotion push (we weren't this season), I'm sure we will try and bring in a couple of decent, if cheap, striking options (probably one experienced Jason Roberts type and one Le Fondre/Cureton type gamble) which should see us comfortably mid table if not higher if we keep the nucleus of Hector, Obita, Gunter, Williams and add in the inevitable two Chelsea loanees.

User avatar
Coppelled_Streets
Member
Posts: 872
Joined: 27 Mar 2015 12:10

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by Coppelled_Streets » 24 Apr 2015 12:20

Maguire Pure madness trying to judge the new manager in the way the o/p has. Coppell's team wasn't built in a day, was it?


Exactly, and the first thing Clarke needed to do here was orgsanise the defence and make us harder to beat - and he did that. It's not his fault by his own admission there are a lot of changes needing to be made to this squad. Depending on the support he gets from the board in the summer and January, I'd argue he needs another 18 months at least, to rebuild the side before we're close to competing for a play-off spot. Sadly that requires patience, and that's unlikely to be afforded by our spoilt fanbase.

User avatar
Extended-Phenotype
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 5880
Joined: 27 May 2011 10:43
Location: Oxford Road

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by Extended-Phenotype » 24 Apr 2015 12:59

Maguire
Extended-Phenotype I think scrutinising the manager in response to misplaced praise or relentless defence is fair enough. That's just a conversation. But I think running him down and over analysing him for the sake of it, at this stage, is pretty worthless.

Like anyone he needs time and investment to put a team together, to plug the holes and get a clean start. I may not be agreeing with the Steve Clarke revolution on here or agree that we have seen any significant improvement but I still want him to succeed (like any of our managers) and feel we can only truly analyse him when this fog of uncertainty surrounding the club made up of many factors we understand little about has lifted.

New season, (hopefully) new team, fresh start - and good luck to him.


Agree with all this other than the "Steve Clarke revolution" - what is this?



Just a lazy remark, really - summarising one end of the (inevitable, relentless) polarisation. When people start flopping their stats out ("I have added up all the times the players made eye contact with each other and it is significantly higher under Clarke!"), its usually a sign to leave.


User avatar
Silver Fox
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 19598
Joined: 15 Apr 2004 10:02
Location: From the Andes to the indies in my undies

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by Silver Fox » 24 Apr 2015 13:08

Ian Royal In virtually every significant measure I can think of Steve Clarke's performance is worse than his predecessor.


Utter bollocks.

MoorgateRoyal
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 1355
Joined: 10 Apr 2015 11:49

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by MoorgateRoyal » 24 Apr 2015 13:27

I'm not worried about next season- I think it will be another of consolidation, and Clarke trying to get the players he wants in. The season after is the one I hope we will be able to do something meaningful, if Clarke is still in the job and has put together what he feels to be 'his' squad.

It took Coppell and McDermott a couple of years to build Championship-winning sides. I'm not saying Clarke will do that, but it does take time to get a group together which you feel is playing the way you want them to, and has the best chance of success. That success will depend on the quality of the squad- it could be play-offs, could be top two. Equally, it could just be survival, although I imagine we will show a little more ambition than that.

I'd also like to see some more Academy players make the step up and get an appropriate amount of minutes for their development. I particularly want to see more of Kuhl. If he develops well, he could be a player we build the team around.

Ultimately, I enjoy going to football and I've sat through enough crap in Div 2 to appreciate that we're still in a relatively healthy position as a club.

User avatar
Hoop Blah
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 13937
Joined: 14 Apr 2004 09:00
Location: I told you so.....

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by Hoop Blah » 24 Apr 2015 13:28

Greatwesternline I love it when people talk about sales and wheeling and dealing.

Who are we going to sell that will generate revenue, who we don't want to keep?

For players to to leave for money they need to be desirable to other teams. If they are desirable to other teams then surely they should be desirable to us.

People say, let's sell Guthrie, let's sell Kanu, let's sell Pogrebnyak, let's sell Kelly, let's sell Ferdinand, let's sell Blackman, let's sell insert here who is on high wages and is not deemed to be good value for money.

Well other clubs aren't go to be jumping around giving us the odd 500,000 here or there for players on high wages who aren't performing for us. (Kanu, Pog, Guthrie, Ferdinand (maybe))

It's not easy so sell players you dont want, the few players we have ever sold for decent money were players who ideally we would have kept.


We don't have to sell players to wheel and deal, for some of those, like Guthrie and Kelly, we'll be able to free up money to play around with the squad just by losing their wages.

For some of those we probably don't want to keep, I'm guessing players like Blackman and potentially Cox or even Robson-Kanu, we might be able to get some money for them, especially the latter who's goals in the Premier League and Cup this season keeps his profile high. Managers always think they can get more out of a player than other managers so there's lots of potential to move players on if we want to but I agree getting serious money for any of those we don't want is very unlikely.

As for players being desirable for other teams when they're not for us, well often they want them to perform different roles than we do or players just need a change of scenery to prosper again.

SCIAG
Hob Nob Regular
Posts: 4799
Joined: 17 Jun 2008 17:43
Location: Liburd for England

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by SCIAG » 24 Apr 2015 13:32

Z175 Sounds like Steve Clarke agrees. We'd expect to lose Pog, Blackman, Akpan and HRK, but will probably keep them and lose McCleary, Federici, Pearce and Karacan. I can't see the banks allowing us to offer new deals until the wagebill is reduced and I agree no one is going to take Pog off our hands!

Why do banks get a say in what we do?


User avatar
bcubed
Hob Nob Addict
Posts: 5206
Joined: 30 Oct 2004 18:16
Location: Would do better with a stick of rhubarb

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by bcubed » 24 Apr 2015 14:20

CBA to read all o/p

looking forward to next season myself

Forget stats, I simply have a much better feeling about SC and his approach than with Adkins
He is a better fit for RFC and he has got more out of the team than his predecessor
We have tightened up defensively and on our day create more than enough chances
just need a couple of strikers and the team would look good

For the Semi Final alone (the achievement and the occasion) he deserves some leeway

I for one am happy to give him the chance to build his own team and would not write him off (right now)

Glory Boy
Member
Posts: 137
Joined: 21 Oct 2004 14:15

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by Glory Boy » 24 Apr 2015 14:51

Not too worried because the rest of the division hardly screams quality. Think we will finish about 8th-11th next season.

User avatar
RoyalBlue
Hob Nob Subscriber
Hob Nob Subscriber
Posts: 10328
Joined: 13 Apr 2004 22:39
Location: Developed a pathological hatred of snakes on 14/10/19

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by RoyalBlue » 24 Apr 2015 15:13

Ian Royal - you should send your post to Tim 'Nice but Dim' Dellor. He's still convinced that we have performed much better in the league under Clarke! :roll:

I suspect he can't see the bleedin' obvious because he is so enthralled that Clarke gives him straight answers in interviews, even if those answers are 'I don't have to justify my team selections' and 'Look, we've been here before'

Silver Fox
Ian Royal In virtually every significant measure I can think of Steve Clarke's performance is worse than his predecessor.


Utter bollocks.


Just because you say so? Or are you Dellor?! IR has at least offered some evidence to back up his claim.

Emmer Green Royal
Member
Posts: 240
Joined: 05 May 2006 11:57
Location: St Johann in Tirol, Austria

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by Emmer Green Royal » 24 Apr 2015 15:35

[quote="Dave-Royal"][quote="Glory Boy"]Not too worried because the rest of the division hardly screams quality. Think we will finish about 8th-11th next season.[/quote] Don't talk rubbish play off next season you glory Hunter[/quote]

I'm not sure that anticipating an 8th-11th place finish really qualifies as glory hunting!

User avatar
Armadillo Roadkill
Member
Posts: 727
Joined: 03 Nov 2007 19:47
Location: In a zone of great calm

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by Armadillo Roadkill » 24 Apr 2015 15:40

Ian Royal - decent post that closely echoes my own thoughts. I wish people wouldn't mock those who can be bothered to write detailed and well analysed arguments. Even if you don't agree.

I think I'm mildly more optimistic though - I hope think the squad rebuild includes a few hungry strikers, some one who can take corners and free kicks, and wingers that can cross the ball.

User avatar
Ian Royal
Hob Nob Super-Addict
Posts: 35156
Joined: 15 Apr 2004 13:43
Location: Playing spot the pc*nt on HNA?

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by Ian Royal » 24 Apr 2015 17:13

Well, I had hoped to come back to this and find some good strong arguments to renew my faith and excite me.

What I've got is the more reliable, intelligent and balanced posters saying it's too early to judge Clarke based on this season and he should be given the summer. Largely, I agree although a small voice in my head is crying out sack him and get someone with a decent track record. That's not something I'd advocate though. It's not exactly positive or encouraging though.

There's the usual stuff from the people who've got to support Clarke so they can use him to bash Adkins, and wouldn't acknowledge a genuinely raised point against him if their life depended on it. See sandman and Silver Fox.

But nothing that really adds any compelling positive signs in my view. More that that negatives aren't that certain.

I actually like everything I hear Clarke say. I like him too. The problem is I just don't see any signs that he's actively doing / will do a good job. I don't see much chance of us doing enough to address the glaring weaknesses in our squad and the consolations of a crap season that did excite me (in the form of seeing our youth players develop), seems to be less likely under Clarke.

I desperately hope he proves me wrong. I'll be renewing my season ticket, and it'd be nice for us to have a good season for me to enjoy with it, seeing as the last two I've had one have seen 8/23 wins at home each. I think he should get the summer and at least 3 - 4 months after to see what he can really do when given a fair crack. I just think the answer is probably going to be a relegation fight we can't buy our way out of in January.

JIM
Member
Posts: 719
Joined: 30 Jul 2006 15:13

Re: Reasons I'm worried about next season.

by JIM » 24 Apr 2015 17:22

4/5 FROM BOTTOM unless the owners give up more cash, for PLAYERS :? :? :?

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 35 guests

It is currently 05 Jun 2020 12:31