Rival Watch

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Stranded
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Re: Rival Watch

by Stranded » 19 Apr 2022 13:53

YorkshireRoyal99
Snowball FYI

Just for fun, the table without points-deductions

17 43 13 13 17 42 49 -07 52 Derby
18 42 14 07 21 48 64 -16 49 Cardiff
19 43 13 10 20 54 74 -20 49 Bristol
20 43 13 08 22 37 48 -11 47 Hull
21 43 13 08 22 54 82 -28 47 Reading
________________________________________________________
22 43 11 12 20 46 70 -24 45 Birmingham
23 43 08 10 25 38 83 -45 34 Peterboro
24 42 06 12 24 31 62 -31 30 Barnsley


That would be painful for me to be involved in personally but from the neutral perspective I bet it would be one hell of a run in for them.

I think points deductions that will follow for a few seasons to come will knock the number of points required to stay up at 43>=.


Does show you how bad Peterboro and Barnsley have been when they would normally be 13 and 17 points adrift. Yesterday's game between them would have seen between 2 already relegated sides rather than 2 about to be relegated sides.

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Re: Rival Watch

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 19 Apr 2022 14:07

Stranded
YorkshireRoyal99
Snowball FYI

Just for fun, the table without points-deductions

17 43 13 13 17 42 49 -07 52 Derby
18 42 14 07 21 48 64 -16 49 Cardiff
19 43 13 10 20 54 74 -20 49 Bristol
20 43 13 08 22 37 48 -11 47 Hull
21 43 13 08 22 54 82 -28 47 Reading
________________________________________________________
22 43 11 12 20 46 70 -24 45 Birmingham
23 43 08 10 25 38 83 -45 34 Peterboro
24 42 06 12 24 31 62 -31 30 Barnsley


That would be painful for me to be involved in personally but from the neutral perspective I bet it would be one hell of a run in for them.

I think points deductions that will follow for a few seasons to come will knock the number of points required to stay up at 43>=.


Does show you how bad Peterboro and Barnsley have been when they would normally be 13 and 17 points adrift. Yesterday's game between them would have seen between 2 already relegated sides rather than 2 about to be relegated sides.


True, they are only "in it" because of our points off though. But I suppose whilst clubs like ourselves are irresponsible with our funds, clubs at the bottom of the table can expect to be within a shout of staying up each season for the next couple of seasons running.

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Re: Rival Watch

by morganb » 19 Apr 2022 15:53

Had a look back at the Reading results on Hob Nob and we've been sat in 21st place since 11th December without moving up or down - to be in the same nondescript position for so long is quite 'impressive'.

The teams below us have often swapped places and mid-table is in constant churn and I think Fulham have been 1st for a couple of weeks longer than we've been 21st (and possibly Bournemouth in 2nd as well?)

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Re: Rival Watch

by Hound » 19 Apr 2022 15:58

Did we at any point fall into the bottom 3, even with a ‘live’ table in the middle of a game?

Must have been close a few times

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Re: Rival Watch

by Hound » 19 Apr 2022 16:10

The Derby love in reaching new heights today

Don’t understand it. They cheated, spent loads of money they shouldn’t, dodgy stadium deal, didn’t submit accounts, pay for players etc, wouldn’t even have media darling Rooney if they weren’t cooking the books.

Of course it’s all Mel’s fault for putting them in admin now

Thoroughly bored if it


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Re: Rival Watch

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 19 Apr 2022 16:11

Hound Did we at any point fall into the bottom 3, even with a ‘live’ table in the middle of a game?

Must have been close a few times


I think there may have been a time where Peterborough were winning at Birmingham back in January where they were above us? I could be wrong completely with that though, just seems to be something that's in my mind for whatever reason.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Snowball » 19 Apr 2022 16:16

morganb Had a look back at the Reading results on Hob Nob and we've been sat in 21st place since 11th December without moving up or down - to be in the same nondescript position for so long is quite 'impressive'.

The teams below us have often swapped places and mid-table is in constant churn and I think Fulham have been 1st for a couple of weeks longer than we've been 21st (and possibly Bournemouth in 2nd as well?)
I took a look at Pauno's points-record and he was on a point a game.

However if you consider Ince's first game as down to Pauno then he managed 33 from 31 (1.06 ppg = 49 point season)

Pauno was also predicting an upturn in results in February-March as players came back. That happened, just with a different manager. At the last look Ince was on 1.36, 1.2 if the first game "belonged to Pauno." (55 points season).

Much as it's fun and easy to bash Pauno, when we consider the horrendous injury list, especially losing JOAO, there isn't (points-wise) that much between the two managers and now-not-injured JOAO's recent goal-scoring run has made a big difference as have the two vital now-not-injured-McIntyre goals

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Re: Rival Watch

by Snowball » 19 Apr 2022 16:37

Pauno v Ince

Goals, Goal Difference

32 54 82 ALL GAMES


32 39 62 Actual 56 89 -33 GD "Season Extrapolated" PAUNO
11 15 20 Actual 63 84 -21 GD "Season Extrapolated" INCE

With First Ince Game = "Pauno's"

33 41 61 -20 GD Actual 57 85 -28 GD "Season Extrapolated" PAUNO
10 13 19 -06 GD Actual 60 87 -27 GD "Season Extrapolated" INCE

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Re: Rival Watch

by Hound » 19 Apr 2022 16:41

Why are we considering Ince’s first game as under Pauno out of interest?

Why don’t we give Ince Pauno’s last game instead?

Or give ince’s first 3 games to Pauno?


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Re: Rival Watch

by Snowball » 19 Apr 2022 17:05

When a new manager takes over and loses Game 1 the previous manager is blamed...

We had won on the Saturday. The next game was Tuesday...

Anyway, I'm not stating a game should go either way, but it DOES usually take time to change things round.

Ince's next three games we went

LOST 4-1
LOST 0-1
LOST 4-0

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Re: Rival Watch

by Silver Fox » 19 Apr 2022 17:07

Hound Why are we considering Ince’s first game as under Pauno out of interest?


Yeah, it's a strange one, however I do tend to agree with Statboy's contention that if Pauno had had Joao things would have been a touch brighter for him

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Re: Rival Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 19 Apr 2022 17:12

Snowball
morganb Had a look back at the Reading results on Hob Nob and we've been sat in 21st place since 11th December without moving up or down - to be in the same nondescript position for so long is quite 'impressive'.

The teams below us have often swapped places and mid-table is in constant churn and I think Fulham have been 1st for a couple of weeks longer than we've been 21st (and possibly Bournemouth in 2nd as well?)
I took a look at Pauno's points-record and he was on a point a game.

However if you consider Ince's first game as down to Pauno then he managed 33 from 31 (1.06 ppg = 49 point season)

Pauno was also predicting an upturn in results in February-March as players came back. That happened, just with a different manager. At the last look Ince was on 1.36, 1.2 if the first game "belonged to Pauno." (55 points season).

Much as it's fun and easy to bash Pauno, when we consider the horrendous injury list, especially losing JOAO, there isn't (points-wise) that much between the two managers and now-not-injured JOAO's recent goal-scoring run has made a big difference as have the two vital now-not-injured-McIntyre goals

If you take the first Ince game off, you need to take the second off too. They were within about 3/4 days of each other. So he didn’t have time to implement any changes or influence anything other than attitude until his third game.

You also need to consider trajectory. Paunovic was on a very clear nosedive trajectory with a slight blip on the tail end. Ince is on an upward trajectory (currently).

Pauno was absolutely dogshit. And the difference between 1 ppg and 1.2/3 ppg is near certain relegation most seasons, and almost certain survival most seasons. Which is pretty crucial.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Mr Angry » 19 Apr 2022 17:31

Stats (as usual) don't give the full picture; under Pauno the team had - bluntly - given up. Under PInce, they have grown to NOT give up - the last 2 games in particular.

Does anyone REALLY believe that under Pauno, with the exact same players, we would have got 4 points from Shef U and Swansea?


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Re: Rival Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 19 Apr 2022 17:49

Mr Angry Stats (as usual) don't give the full picture; under Pauno the team had - bluntly - given up. Under PInce, they have grown to NOT give up - the last 2 games in particular.

Does anyone REALLY believe that under Pauno, with the exact same players, we would have got 4 points from Shef U and Swansea?

If you find one, I have a bridge to sell them.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Zip » 19 Apr 2022 17:56

Mr Angry Stats (as usual) don't give the full picture; under Pauno the team had - bluntly - given up. Under PInce, they have grown to NOT give up - the last 2 games in particular.

Does anyone REALLY believe that under Pauno, with the exact same players, we would have got 4 points from Shef U and Swansea?


The team has far more fight now. We rarely saw the team fight back under Pauno.
Having said that the injuries under Pauno were ridiculous. Ince has been talking about the squad being at “bare bones” for the past few games but it’s relative riches to the options Pauno had.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Hendo » 19 Apr 2022 18:02

Snowflake Royal
Mr Angry Stats (as usual) don't give the full picture; under Pauno the team had - bluntly - given up. Under PInce, they have grown to NOT give up - the last 2 games in particular.

Does anyone REALLY believe that under Pauno, with the exact same players, we would have got 4 points from Shef U and Swansea?

If you find one, I have a bridge to sell them.


Tbf, we did beat Swansea at their place and only narrowly lost to Sheffield United at home under Pauno, so I wouldn’t say it was totally out of the realms of possibility.

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Re: Rival Watch

by URZZZZ » 19 Apr 2022 19:34

Hendo
Snowflake Royal
Mr Angry Stats (as usual) don't give the full picture; under Pauno the team had - bluntly - given up. Under PInce, they have grown to NOT give up - the last 2 games in particular.

Does anyone REALLY believe that under Pauno, with the exact same players, we would have got 4 points from Shef U and Swansea?

If you find one, I have a bridge to sell them.


Tbf, we did beat Swansea at their place and only narrowly lost to Sheffield United at home under Pauno, so I wouldn’t say it was totally out of the realms of possibility.


Then again, Sheffield were unbeaten in 12 home games before us (dating back to late October) and Swansea had won four of their last five away games before us, don’t believe either were close to that sort of form in the reverse fixtures

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Re: Rival Watch

by Hound » 19 Apr 2022 19:46

URZZZZ
Hendo
Snowflake Royal If you find one, I have a bridge to sell them.


Tbf, we did beat Swansea at their place and only narrowly lost to Sheffield United at home under Pauno, so I wouldn’t say it was totally out of the realms of possibility.


Then again, Sheffield were unbeaten in 12 home games before us (dating back to late October) and Swansea had won four of their last five away games before us, don’t believe either were close to that sort of form in the reverse fixtures


Sheff utd sacked their manager AFTER that game - so their run of form previous must have been pretty awful

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Re: Rival Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 19 Apr 2022 19:50

About that bridge Hendo...

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Re: Rival Watch

by notloyalenuffroyal » 19 Apr 2022 20:05

Zip
Mr Angry Stats (as usual) don't give the full picture; under Pauno the team had - bluntly - given up. Under PInce, they have grown to NOT give up - the last 2 games in particular.

Does anyone REALLY believe that under Pauno, with the exact same players, we would have got 4 points from Shef U and Swansea?


The team has far more fight now. We rarely saw the team fight back under Pauno.
Having said that the injuries under Pauno were ridiculous. Ince has been talking about the squad being at “bare bones” for the past few games but it’s relative riches to the options Pauno had.


Is there an argument that injuries were not well managed by Pauno? Lots injured under his regime, not always in matches and they did seem to take a long time to return. We have seen quicker returns recently. No Holmes or Ovie yesterday due to "small" injuries, but maybe this is better management?

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