Relegation

[John Smith]

I hope we can get 7 more wins but from what I’ve witnessed in the last few games we’ll do well to get 12 more points.

Without sounding like Pauno we were cruising vs. Derby up until the 85th min and also looked the better team for the first 15 vs QPR. There's definitely ability, it's just the confidence of when we concede. A last min 1-0 win would do us perfectly at Bristol (who have a habit of conceding late on...)

[Hendo]

I hope we can get 7 more wins but from what I’ve witnessed in the last few games we’ll do well to get 12 more points.

Without sounding like Pauno we were cruising vs. Derby up until the 85th min and also looked the better team for the first 15 vs QPR. There's definitely ability, it's just the confidence of when we concede. A last min 1-0 win would do us perfectly at Bristol (who have a habit of conceding late on...)

Hull as well. Didn't look in any bother at all, only for one mistake from Southwood.

[andrew1957]

We now have the squad that we have for better or for worse. We also have some winnable games in February including a "must not lose" against Peterborough. Win a few and suddenly the negativity will subside - as we move towards comfortable safety. Lose most and I don't see how even Pauno can survive. It's now or never to turn round the momentum.

[WestYorksRoyal]

I hope we can get 7 more wins but from what I’ve witnessed in the last few games we’ll do well to get 12 more points.

Without sounding like Pauno we were cruising vs. Derby up until the 85th min and also looked the better team for the first 15 vs QPR. There's definitely ability, it's just the confidence of when we concede. A last min 1-0 win would do us perfectly at Bristol (who have a habit of conceding late on...)

Hull as well. Didn't look in any bother at all, only for one mistake from Southwood.

And 2 shockers from the ref

[Snowflake Royal]

I can't remember the last time I've actually thought we looked comfortable. It certainly wasn't Derby or Hull.

We retreat into our box every single time we have the lead for basically the whole of the last 20 minutes. And you know we're some lazy midfield cover, a defensive lapse, keeper mistake or great goal away from total collapse. And any of those things could come at any moment, no matter how stolid and toothless the opposition look at the time.

[blythspartan]

I can't remember the last time I've actually thought we looked comfortable. It certainly wasn't Derby or Hull.

We retreat into our box every single time we have the lead for basically the whole of the last 20 minutes. And you know we're some lazy midfield cover, a defensive lapse, keeper mistake or great goal away from total collapse. And any of those things could come at any moment, no matter how stolid and toothless the opposition look at the time.

Agree with this. I have been to most of the home games this season and maybe apart from Peterborough at home we haven’t looked comfortable in any of them.

[Mr Optimist]

We now have the squad that we have for better or for worse. We also have some winnable games in February including a "must not lose" against Peterborough. Win a few and suddenly the negativity will subside - as we move towards comfortable safety. Lose most and I don't see how even Pauno can survive. It's now or never to turn round the momentum.

Totally agree. Swift is still here until the end of the season and hopefully Meite will be back and match fit again with the next two to three weeks, together with Joao’s return, Ince’s experience in midfield, time for the excuses to stop and some results in the next 3 games otherwise someone else has to take over if Pauno can’t get a tune out of the players we have available. It would still leave about a third of the season for someone else time enough to pick up the pieces if not. Shit or bust for Pauno over the next two weeks, he can’t say he hasn’t been given the time or opportunity to turn it around.

[Snowflake Royal]

I can't remember the last time I've actually thought we looked comfortable. It certainly wasn't Derby or Hull.

We retreat into our box every single time we have the lead for basically the whole of the last 20 minutes. And you know we're some lazy midfield cover, a defensive lapse, keeper mistake or great goal away from total collapse. And any of those things could come at any moment, no matter how stolid and toothless the opposition look at the time.

Agree with this. I have been to most of the home games this season and maybe apart from Peterborough at home we haven’t looked comfortable in any of them.

I look back on some early wins like Preston and Fulham and its the exact same thing they were just blunt on the night, not our doing.

Let's be clear here. We've won by more than one goal once this season. Pathetic.

[Hound]

I can't remember the last time I've actually thought we looked comfortable. It certainly wasn't Derby or Hull.

We retreat into our box every single time we have the lead for basically the whole of the last 20 minutes. And you know we're some lazy midfield cover, a defensive lapse, keeper mistake or great goal away from total collapse. And any of those things could come at any moment, no matter how stolid and toothless the opposition look at the time.

Agree with this. I have been to most of the home games this season and maybe apart from Peterborough at home we haven’t looked comfortable in any of them.

I look back on some early wins like Preston and Fulham and its the exact same thing they were just blunt on the night, not our doing.

Let's be clear here. We've won by more than one goal once this season. Pathetic.

and we were diabolical against Peterborough until Swift scored. Didn't TDB score the 3rd with about 3 mins left? We were comfortably coasting to a win for all of about that 3 mins in anyone game all season

Thought Hull we probably did look pretty comfortable to be honest. Not comfortably winning, but comfortable at the back, because we were pretty blunt, but they barely mustered an effort on goal of any use. Even their goal was a fluke/dodgy keeping

[Millsy]

We now have the squad that we have for better or for worse. We also have some winnable games in February including a "must not lose" against Peterborough. Win a few and suddenly the negativity will subside - as we move towards comfortable safety. Lose most and I don't see how even Pauno can survive. It's now or never to turn round the momentum.

+1

Pauno has to go asap, but failing that my guess is worst case scenario we'll still be ok with:

- the players who have come back (Joao, Moro, Rino, FBs, Ejaria)
- the players on their way back (Meite)
- Troublemaker Moore gone
- Puscas gone, so no need to keep trying to force the square peg into a round hole
- January window over so some clarity for players like Swift, Holmes etc who can now just concentrate on doing as well as they can for a new contract or move later
- Ince seems a reasonable prospect, certainly couldn't be any worse than Puscas
- Hopefully decent keeper cover/keeping Southwood on his toes

This is going to be somewhat of a settled squad now, much stronger than the shit we've had to endure in the last few games. Pauno is going to have to try really hard to ***k this up with the squad available now, but he never ceases to surprise us.

Still want him out asap obviously.

[Royal_jimmy]

Derby are finishing above us aren't they

[tidus_mi2]

I honestly thought we'd get out of this but this run of form we've been on is really draining any optimism I once had.

[Lower West]

Derby are finishing above us aren't they

Played 28 - Goals conceded 55.

Played 30 - Goals conceded 31.

Only improvement to the Reading defence has been to ship both Rafael and Moore out.

[Stranded]

Derby are finishing above us aren't they

Unless we buck up our ideas, yes they will.

This week will go a long way to show how this season is going.

Between now and 16th February, the following happens (just focussing on us and Derby currently):

Tonight

Bristol City v Reading

Saturday

Boro v Derby
Reading v Coventry

16th Feb

Peterborough v Reading

So we play our 2 games in hand. Derby's away form is rotten, but they are playing Boro so a bit of needle there, lets say they get a point.

So if we carry on losing then we'll be 3 points clear of Derby but in the bottom 3.
A draw or two means the gap is 4 or 5 points
One win, 2 defeats - gap is 6
1 win, 1 draw, 1 defeat - gap is 7
2 wins, 1 defeat - gap is 9
2 wins, 1 draw - gap is 10
3 wins - gap is 12.

We have been awful in January, no argument there but the point everyone seems to overlook is who those fixtures were against, we lost too:

1st, 4th,5th, 7th and 8th - based on this morning's table.

Games that no-one would have been surprised if we lost especially given we had what 1 defender for part of that run.

The performances were unacceptable but I doubt any team will have a prolonged run of fixtures like that - the only game we had against a side outside the top 8 was the Derby game that we should have won.

We need to stop the rot tonight with a draw minimum, ideally a win, and we should be able to open up a gap.

If we can't stop losing then Derby could play Man City every week for the rest of the season and still probably pick up enough points to squeeze past us.

Over the past 12 games, Derby have managed a decent 18 points. If they keep up that form, they will get to 42. We need 21 points from 18 to get passed that. Before this run we managed 28 from 22, so we are capable of doing that, just need the win.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

People also seem to be expecting our woeful form to continue as well, at one point so did I (after Luton). I'd imagine, at some stage, our form would improve going into the remaining games this season.

Derby are always going to look likely to catch when we've lost our last 5 league games and haven't won since November, but I wouldn't anticipate that it would continue. We are good enough to win 6 more games between now and the end of the season which may end up being enough.

[Stranded]

People also seem to be expecting our woeful form to continue as well, at one point so did I (after Luton). I'd imagine, at some stage, our form would improve going into the remaining games this season.

Derby are always going to look likely to catch when we've lost our last 5 league games and haven't won since November, but I wouldn't anticipate that it would continue. We are good enough to win 6 more games between now and the end of the season which may end up being enough.

W6 D3 L9 will get us to 43. That is doable, we've already shown we can manage form like that this season. We just need a win quickly.

Derby will then need to go at better than 1.5pts per game to get that i.e. better than their form over the past 12 games.

Peterborough will need 23 from 19 to get to 43 - doable but a massive up tick in their form.

Barnsley would need 29 from 17.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

People also seem to be expecting our woeful form to continue as well, at one point so did I (after Luton). I'd imagine, at some stage, our form would improve going into the remaining games this season.

Derby are always going to look likely to catch when we've lost our last 5 league games and haven't won since November, but I wouldn't anticipate that it would continue. We are good enough to win 6 more games between now and the end of the season which may end up being enough.

W6 D3 L9 will get us to 43. That is doable, we've already shown we can manage form like that this season. We just need a win quickly.

Derby will then need to go at better than 1.5pts per game to get that i.e. better than their form over the past 12 games.

Peterborough will need 23 from 19 to get to 43 - doable but a massive up tick in their form.

Barnsley would need 29 from 17.

I think it is Derby who are the biggest problem. I can't see Peterborough getting over 40 and Barnsley over 35. Derby may get somewhere near 43 but they've only actually won 1 of their last 4 games, last night, against Hull who aren't exactly great themselves.

Yes, our form has been woeful and if it does continue then we will obviously go down, but there is enough in this squad to pick up 6 wins from our remaining games plus the odd draw here and there. I do believe it will only take 1 win and you may see the Hull/Cardiff effect where you pick up 2/3 wins and suddenly we will end up clear.

Derby's survival situation looks doable due to our woeful form. Any sort of "average" form for a team in our position and they'd be cut well adrift still. They still may be as we have 2 games on them and they could feasibly be 8 points behind after tonight and Peterborough next week as well.

[Stranded]

People also seem to be expecting our woeful form to continue as well, at one point so did I (after Luton). I'd imagine, at some stage, our form would improve going into the remaining games this season.

Derby are always going to look likely to catch when we've lost our last 5 league games and haven't won since November, but I wouldn't anticipate that it would continue. We are good enough to win 6 more games between now and the end of the season which may end up being enough.

W6 D3 L9 will get us to 43. That is doable, we've already shown we can manage form like that this season. We just need a win quickly.

Derby will then need to go at better than 1.5pts per game to get that i.e. better than their form over the past 12 games.

Peterborough will need 23 from 19 to get to 43 - doable but a massive up tick in their form.

Barnsley would need 29 from 17.

I think it is Derby who are the biggest problem. I can't see Peterborough getting over 40 and Barnsley over 35. Derby may get somewhere near 43 but they've only actually won 1 of their last 4 games, last night, against Hull who aren't exactly great themselves.

Yes, our form has been woeful and if it does continue then we will obviously go down, but there is enough in this squad to pick up 6 wins from our remaining games plus the odd draw here and there. I do believe it will only take 1 win and you may see the Hull/Cardiff effect where you pick up 2/3 wins and suddenly we will end up clear.

Derby's survival situation looks doable due to our woeful form. Any sort of "average" form for a team in our position and they'd be cut well adrift still. They still may be as we have 2 games on them and they could feasibly be 8 points behind after tonight and Peterborough next week as well.

Yep, depending on us really, gap could be anything from 1pt to 13pts after Peterborough next week (likely to be 6-9 I would guess). This week is key, if we fail to win at least 1, we may as well pack up and go home.

Derby have some big games in their next 6 - as they play Cardiff (who they must play twice still), Peterborough and Barnsley. If they pick up 9 points from those they will really fancy their chances - we ideally want the gap to them to be no smaller than now as their last 10 are trickier.

Their last 10 include games against the current top 4

[YorkshireRoyal99]

There is also the matter of if Derby actually survive until the end of the season but I'm working on the assumption that they will at this point even though that's still very much up in arms.

It would benefit us in the table if it did as we'd gain 2 points on Peterborough and obviously Derby would be out of the question.

[Pepe the Horseman]

It's actually mental that we're still not in the relegation zone.