Where will we finish?

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Nameless
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Re: Where will we finish?

by Nameless » 30 Jul 2019 18:12

Brain Traysers
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genome Paddy Power:



Would be good if these people actually did some research


So actual goals improved but xG didn't? I know which one I'll take thanks ya bunch of nerds


I'm confused by these takes - PP literally reference their reasoning for their view.

Secondly, xG has been shown to far better explain/predict future results than previous results has. That's a justifiable red flag to people who care about that - NTT20 in this case. You could of course take the view that because we have over-performed xG for what feels like forever, we will continue to do so, but then again 9 tails in a row doesn't mean we won't see heads next flip.

(Of course you are all equally entitled to not care in the slightest about it)


Isn’t the bit people find weird the claim that ‘performances didn’t improve’. They did, unarguably.

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Re: Where will we finish?

by Brain Traysers » 30 Jul 2019 18:23

Nameless
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So actual goals improved but xG didn't? I know which one I'll take thanks ya bunch of nerds


I'm confused by these takes - PP literally reference their reasoning for their view.

Secondly, xG has been shown to far better explain/predict future results than previous results has. That's a justifiable red flag to people who care about that - NTT20 in this case. You could of course take the view that because we have over-performed xG for what feels like forever, we will continue to do so, but then again 9 tails in a row doesn't mean we won't see heads next flip.

(Of course you are all equally entitled to not care in the slightest about it)


Isn’t the bit people find weird the claim that ‘performances didn’t improve’. They did, unarguably.


That's what I thought initially - but the "Reading being the third worst team in the league since he was hired, according to xG" statement is true. Other measures of performance include fans opinions, and the ones available on this portal would suggest they did improve, but struggle to point to any tangible evidence (how do you measure "squad togetherness" or the "Reading way"? Do those factors persist when results don't go your way?). Personally I think both statements are true - we improved, but from being the joint worst team in the division to only the third worst.

Have we continued that improvement over the summer? The squad looks weaker in every position apart from defense but I'm quietly optimistic of a major breakout season for Olise or Loader. I fear we will need just that to avoid another relegation slog going down to the wire.

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Re: Where will we finish?

by Nameless » 30 Jul 2019 18:54

WE had 1 team below us at the start of Jose’s reign and 4 below us at the end of the season.
So presumably at least one of the teams below us performed better than us in the second half of the season and still managed to drop below us.
And a couple of teams that finished above us had pretty dismal second halves (QPR for one)

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Re: Where will we finish?

by Snowflake Royal » 30 Jul 2019 19:02

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Nameless
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I'm confused by these takes - PP literally reference their reasoning for their view.

Secondly, xG has been shown to far better explain/predict future results than previous results has. That's a justifiable red flag to people who care about that - NTT20 in this case. You could of course take the view that because we have over-performed xG for what feels like forever, we will continue to do so, but then again 9 tails in a row doesn't mean we won't see heads next flip.

(Of course you are all equally entitled to not care in the slightest about it)


Isn’t the bit people find weird the claim that ‘performances didn’t improve’. They did, unarguably.


That's what I thought initially - but the "Reading being the third worst team in the league since he was hired, according to xG" statement is true. Other measures of performance include fans opinions, and the ones available on this portal would suggest they did improve, but struggle to point to any tangible evidence (how do you measure "squad togetherness" or the "Reading way"? Do those factors persist when results don't go your way?). Personally I think both statements are true - we improved, but from being the joint worst team in the division to only the third worst.

Have we continued that improvement over the summer? The squad looks weaker in every position apart from defense but I'm quietly optimistic of a major breakout season for Olise or Loader. I fear we will need just that to avoid another relegation slog going down to the wire.

Fans will be talking about subjective opinion of performances from watching games. Despite the current fad, xG performance isn't actually the same as performance. We objectively accumulated points at a better rate, and by more than a small amount. I believe we also conceded less. Scoring may have been a bit worse, I'm not positive. Results definitely improved. Performances also improved.

The league isn't run on xG.

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Re: Where will we finish?

by genome » 30 Jul 2019 19:05

Nameless
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So actual goals improved but xG didn't? I know which one I'll take thanks ya bunch of nerds


I'm confused by these takes - PP literally reference their reasoning for their view.

Secondly, xG has been shown to far better explain/predict future results than previous results has. That's a justifiable red flag to people who care about that - NTT20 in this case. You could of course take the view that because we have over-performed xG for what feels like forever, we will continue to do so, but then again 9 tails in a row doesn't mean we won't see heads next flip.

(Of course you are all equally entitled to not care in the slightest about it)


Isn’t the bit people find weird the claim that ‘performances didn’t improve’. They did, unarguably.


Yep, that's the bit I was referring to.


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Re: Where will we finish?

by WestYorksRoyal » 30 Jul 2019 19:25

I appreciate stats like xG and all the rest, but anybody who failed to recognize a significant improvement in performances from February last season was either not at games, or was high on crack.

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Re: Where will we finish?

by Mid Sussex Royal » 30 Jul 2019 19:34

Sky's initial forecast of looking at times likely to struggle doesn't mention us for a change

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Re: Where will we finish?

by SCIAG » 30 Jul 2019 19:45

I'm usually an RTG so surprised to be one of the most negative here.

Think we'll probably go down unless we add a defensive midfielder and a forward. Injury to Meite or Barrow would leave us relying on unproven youngsters, and injury to Rinomhota would create s huge unfillable hole in our midfield. And our two first choice strikers have one goal between them at this level.

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Re: Where will we finish?

by Hound » 30 Jul 2019 20:13

But our second choice have quite a few at this level or Eredivisie

Do agree on Rinomhota and need to add to our midfield though

I just think our back 4 will be a strong basis to do reasonably well, and if (big if) Swift, Rino, Meite and Barrow stay fit we have 4 quality champ attacking players

Plus the likes of Millwall, Wigan and Charlton could be very shit indeed


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Re: Where will we finish?

by Simon's Church » 30 Jul 2019 20:19

20th. Question marks over GK, cm and st but should have enough quality and energy to stay up. Agree with sciag though, any kind of long term injury to rinomhota and we'll seriously struggle.
We were very reliant on jaakola and Martinez making the most saves in the division last season, can't imagine we'll have the same quality this year.

I'll also be pleasantly surprised if novakovich starts more than 10 league games this year, can't see how he fits the style of play at all.

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Re: Where will we finish?

by URZZZZ » 30 Jul 2019 20:20

WestYorksRoyal I appreciate stats like xG and all the rest, but anybody who failed to recognize a significant improvement in performances from February last season was either not at games, or was high on crack.


Improvement? Yep. Wasn’t that big an improvement in terms of performances, solidity and team cohesion improved but there were many a game we looked clueless under Gomes. In fairness, performances did begin to improve April time but to suggest there was a significant improvement from February isn’t true IMO

Conveniently, I think Derby (H) and QPR (A) were two of our better performances and we won neither of those. Preston and Brentford at home were decent too and a couple
Of well fougjt away points but not many more spring to mind

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Re: Where will we finish?

by Nameless » 30 Jul 2019 20:41

Simon's Church 20th. Question marks over GK, cm and st but should have enough quality and energy to stay up. Agree with sciag though, any kind of long term injury to rinomhota and we'll seriously struggle.
We were very reliant on jaakola and Martinez making the most saves in the division last season, can't imagine we'll have the same quality this year.

I'll also be pleasantly surprised if novakovich starts more than 10 league games this year, can't see how he fits the style of play at all.


If our keeper isn’t riding high in the ‘saves made’ tables might it be because our defence is allowing the opposition fewer shots.
Saves made always seems to me to be measure you want to be lower rather than higher....

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Re: Where will we finish?

by PremAddict » 30 Jul 2019 21:10

Bookies have us for the drop. Looking at the squad through a black/white lens. Sure. We barely avoided relegation with 5 loan signing significantly improving the squad only one of which returned. We have a keeper who would be better-served to get minutes in League 1, and no "established" striker.

But adding-in a dose of "what if's" where we still have several players who are still unknown quantities in the likes of Olise, Loader, Barrett, Nova, McIntyre, Holsgrove, and East, if even 2 of those come good, we could be the surprise package. If Swift can sustain the level he's shown in his first year and this pre-season. And where is Obita? If he comes back and is playing at the level he was in the playoff final season. That plus Gomez's team-first philosophy should be embedded better which should mean brighter attitudes and brighter play. Ifs....hmmm

15th.


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Re: Where will we finish?

by Hogmeister Royal » 30 Jul 2019 23:35

Hoping for relative safety in 16th or thereabouts, but fearing relegation for all the reasons mentioned.

On the other hand way back in Summer 2005 I did a long detailed post on here arguing why we were destined for a mid-table finish... so you never know :lol:

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Re: Where will we finish?

by 3points » 30 Jul 2019 23:57

Nameless
If our keeper isn’t riding high in the ‘saves made’ tables might it be because our defence is allowing the opposition fewer shots.
Saves made always seems to me to be measure you want to be lower rather than higher....

Agreed. A mean defence is good for a goalkeeper. We want to concede a few shots per game as possible

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Re: Where will we finish?

by Denver Royal » 31 Jul 2019 00:24

PremAddict Bookies have us for the drop. Looking at the squad through a black/white lens. Sure. We barely avoided relegation with 5 loan signing significantly improving the squad only one of which returned. We have a keeper who would be better-served to get minutes in League 1, and no "established" striker.

But adding-in a dose of "what if's" where we still have several players who are still unknown quantities in the likes of Olise, Loader, Barrett, Nova, McIntyre, Holsgrove, and East, if even 2 of those come good, we could be the surprise package. And where is Obita? If he comes back and is playing at the level he was in the playoff final season.

Yep, good post, as usual.
1st paragraph, neutrals will see it. Stats aside, will look at starting 11 for opening day, compare it to end of last season, see what positions (if any) we’ve improved. Miazga is back, but was here anyway, and lost the other 4 loanees (and Eza).
Said b4, even if we’re improved, will be related to whether other teams are, too. Can’t assume they are standing still, or got worse.
2nd paragraph what if’s, all clubs point to that, Olise is 17, how much will he play, etc.

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Re: Where will we finish?

by royalp-we » 31 Jul 2019 01:08

We have a solid defence - watching us in pre season they look better every game that passes. Players look very settled, they all know their role and we have good cover across the backline.

The rest of the team are young and hungry - although untested at this level. We are going to see some exciting counter attacking football. But I worry about the likes of East and Olise when teams like Leeds take to the pitch to break a few legs. I just hope the youngsters will be able to keep their heads for 46 championship fixtures. Its a marathon and an absolute slog fest by the end of it; and I cannot bloody wait!

Our quality at the back should make us a slightly tougher opponent to break down. I’m going with 18th.

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Re: Where will we finish?

by Rea Ding » 31 Jul 2019 01:55

Dull season- 17th.

no chance of the drop, Millwall, Charlton, Barnsley, Luton, Wigan and another team like Blackburn will battle it out leaving us safe but little else.

Feel we are due a cup run though :?

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Re: Where will we finish?

by Simon's Church » 31 Jul 2019 06:50

Nameless If our keeper isn’t riding high in the ‘saves made’ tables might it be because our defence is allowing the opposition fewer shots.
Saves made always seems to me to be measure you want to be lower rather than higher....


Yeah that's what I mean, under both clement and gomes our keepers were averaging the most saves per game in the league. Not a great sign for the defence.

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Re: Where will we finish?

by Snowflake Royal » 31 Jul 2019 08:05

3points
Nameless
If our keeper isn’t riding high in the ‘saves made’ tables might it be because our defence is allowing the opposition fewer shots.
Saves made always seems to me to be measure you want to be lower rather than higher....

Agreed. A mean defence is good for a goalkeeper. We want to concede a few shots per game as possible

A mean defence can also concede quite a few shots as it forces teams to fire from distance a lot because they know they can't play through.

I wonder what the chances of Southwood still getting some starts are?

Virginia looks a bit soft and is very inexperienced. Walker has some real changers in him. Who would have thought Anssi, our third choice keeper last season, would have ended up first choice until Martinez arrived?

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