Jagermesiter1871 Snowball Snowball NEW CASES Last 5 days
63,408
63,489
68,154
57,773
61,563
More (some) evidence of flattening, but 2-3 weeks of 50,000+ before an actual decline would be about a million cases, and ATM the deaths/got better ratio has risen to 18.4%, meaning there are a total of 142,813 deaths in the pipe based on cumulative cases (excluding new cases and presuming no health-service collapses). The extra million cases would mean a further 184,000 deaths worldwide, totalling 326,813 Dead
BTW the modelling predicted 770-790,000 at midnight tonight (30th) and he number was 781,979 pretty much right in the middle.
UPDATE: Modelling predicted 845,000-855,000 at midnight 31st March. Actual Number 855,007
When does this model predict things getting better?
NO IDEA
Simple model, really. Just get a percentage from Recovered Cases (= Discharged + Dead). Today (so far) that has reached 19.27%.
If you removed the German figures (which I HAVEN'T done) (as they have been testing a much younger age demographic) that would be over 20% I should think. Yep 20.42
I think China's figures are suss. If you exclude those figures the number is a horrendous 27.29%
If you exclude BOTH countries the number is a staggering 30.14%
885,171 - 185,208 - 44,208 -
19.27% World
810,663 - 169,108 - 43,387 -
20.42% Excl Germany
803,617 - 108,970 - 40,896 -
27.29% Excl China
729,109 - 092,870 - 40,075 -
30.14% Excl China & Germany
You take the cumulative CASE total for 14 days ago, multiply by 19.27% and get an approximation of today's death total.
So it predicts a cumulative total deaths of 46,670 for today, midnight.All I was looking at was the relationship between Cases, Discharged and Deaths. The 19.27% reflects, in general, more seriously ill patients except the Chinese figures seem way different to the rest of the world, and the Germans are testing a lot of much younger people in the community. As the world totals increase the errors caused by China/Germany decrease in their effect and the rate increases steadily. The 19.27% for example. It was 15.69% on March 25th and just creeps up and up.
As for "When will it get better?" the answer is"not for a while". First we have to plateau. That "plateau" may occur in 7/14/21 days time, who knows exactly? - but the deaths lag by somewhere round 14 days (and ATM some deaths are occurring after longer than that).
That means the death-numbers should get worse and worse for a minimum of another 3 weeks. Then the question is, "How long will we be at the plateau?" then, when will the infection rate be under, how much under 1, how much will r fall?"
Say (using UK as an example) our death rate goes from 553 (Yesterday's dead) to (at least) 1,000 a day. Say (as an example) we hit 1,000 in a week's time, then have 14 days at this 1,000 (or creeping up to 1,200)... now say the infection rate drops to 0.9.
Sounds good but by then our numbers infected (about 30,000 ATM) will have been rising for a minimum of a week at 3,000+ a day so we'd be on 50,000 confirmed cases. If, in fact it's 14 days of this we'd be on 70,000, 21 days and we are nearer 100,000.
As r falls below 1.0 that's still a very large number of people infected and still being infected. The r was 2.5 to 3 on the way up so the tail of the curve could easily be 3 times as long as the up side. If the decline is fairly linear that would mean an average of 1.5 times as long as the time taken to reach the peak rate/plateau, say the average of the last ten days before the decline began.
If it takes six weeks to reach the peak, it will probably take another 18 weeks to reduce to under 100 new cases a day. The first confirmed UK transmission was Feb 28th. Today is 33 days later and we are not at the peak. If we peak in 7 more days, I think we will have significant UK deaths for a total 40 (climbing fast) + 120 days (fading slower) (at best!)
That is July-28th,
but this is only if we keep the restrictions up and batter r until it goes under 1
Even if the UK manages something like this, and France, Italy etc also do, the huge worry is India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Africa etc. We may see Europe "getting better" while world totals will keep rising.
All the above is presuming there are no extra complications, "Western" Health systems failing, civil unrest, problems with social structures, power, water, stuff we haven't even though of yet. And we need to hope that any mutations to the virus weaken it. The 1918 flu morphed into a far more horrible thing for the second peak.
BTW I have 920-935K total casesfor today, and going through the million tomorrow, April 2nd.