Emmer Green Royal As the proportion of the population that has been infected is unknown, surely much of this discussion is meaningless.
For example, if all of the population was already infected, then ending the lockdown would lead to no increase in illness at all. I'm not suggesting that this is the case, but without knowing what proportion of the population is infected everything else is a bit random.
If you look at Spain's numbers, the current ratio of confirmed cases to the TOTAL population is 1:346.
That means if the whole population was already infected there would be 345 un-spotted cases for every one confirmed
For the ratio to be higher you would have to increase the population!
This 345:1 ratio reduces every day as we get more confirmed cases. If you presume that confirmed cases will at least treble by the end of the pandemic then the ratio then will be 115:1... that is with 100% of the population infected. This strongly suggests an eventual ratio of less than 100:1, which is why I'm using 100:1 as a ball-park for now.