Snowball
Exactly 20% of infected people die after exactly 14 days
That is TOTAL BOLLOCKS as you have NO IDEA how many people are infected.
by Emmer Green Royal » 09 Apr 2020 21:17
Snowball
Exactly 20% of infected people die after exactly 14 days
by Snowball » 10 Apr 2020 01:07
Snowball
You can predict today's deaths and cumulative deaths by going back more or less 15 days and multiplying the cases THEN by the overall rate NOW and it comes out very, very close to the actual.
The model predicts a cumulative deaths at 23:59 tonight of 94,949+ based on Cumulative Cases at 17:00 25-March of 453,008, which would mean 6,615 deaths today. That's using the base from 15.2 Days ago, not looking at the last couple of Days and marking up.
by Snowball » 10 Apr 2020 01:08
Emmer Green RoyalSnowball
Exactly 20% of infected people die after exactly 14 days
That is TOTAL BOLLOCKS as you have NO IDEA how many people are infected.
by bcubed » 10 Apr 2020 09:26
Emmer Green Royal From the Guardian today:
For the “Covid-19 case cluster study”, scientists from the University of Bonn went back to the town that had the first two fatalities from the virus in Germany and interviewed and tested 1,000 residents. Researchers are also trying to work out exactly how the virus got transmitted at a carnival event in the area on 15 February.
After analysing around half of the tests, the study’s director, Prof Hendrick Streeck, said on Thursday morning that 14% of the population in the area had developed immunity after contracting the coronavirus. Previous estimated had put the infection rate at only around 5%.
Streeck said the fatality case rate of the virus in the area had also turned out to be considerably lower than the currently currently registered for the country as a whole. In Heinsberg, only 0.37% of people who contracted the virus had died.
The latest figure for Germany as a whole, as calculated by Johns Hopkins University, is 1.98%.
by Hound » 10 Apr 2020 09:29
bcubedEmmer Green Royal From the Guardian today:
For the “Covid-19 case cluster study”, scientists from the University of Bonn went back to the town that had the first two fatalities from the virus in Germany and interviewed and tested 1,000 residents. Researchers are also trying to work out exactly how the virus got transmitted at a carnival event in the area on 15 February.
After analysing around half of the tests, the study’s director, Prof Hendrick Streeck, said on Thursday morning that 14% of the population in the area had developed immunity after contracting the coronavirus. Previous estimated had put the infection rate at only around 5%.
Streeck said the fatality case rate of the virus in the area had also turned out to be considerably lower than the currently currently registered for the country as a whole. In Heinsberg, only 0.37% of people who contracted the virus had died.
The latest figure for Germany as a whole, as calculated by Johns Hopkins University, is 1.98%.
That's interesting
And I understood it as well
by John Madejski's Wallet » 10 Apr 2020 11:45
Snowball At tonight's Govt briefing Dominic Rabb gave these stats
65,077 Cases
16,784 Hospitalised
07,978 Died in Hospital
01,500 Critical (this figure not yet given for today, so approximate based on yesterday)
This shows that a staggering 47.53% of hospital cases are dying.
When the critical cases and those lingering are added, that must surely go over 50%
12.26% of Confirmed Cases are shown to be dying. This is a crude rate, much under-played) and will rise to around 25% of CC's
by PieEater » 10 Apr 2020 12:47
John Madejski's WalletSnowball At tonight's Govt briefing Dominic Rabb gave these stats
65,077 Cases
16,784 Hospitalised
07,978 Died in Hospital
01,500 Critical (this figure not yet given for today, so approximate based on yesterday)
This shows that a staggering 47.53% of hospital cases are dying.
When the critical cases and those lingering are added, that must surely go over 50%
12.26% of Confirmed Cases are shown to be dying. This is a crude rate, much under-played) and will rise to around 25% of CC's
The confirmed cases death rate is so far beyond useless in the UK, it really shouldn't be mentioned
by Nameless » 10 Apr 2020 13:39
PieEaterJohn Madejski's WalletSnowball At tonight's Govt briefing Dominic Rabb gave these stats
65,077 Cases
16,784 Hospitalised
07,978 Died in Hospital
01,500 Critical (this figure not yet given for today, so approximate based on yesterday)
This shows that a staggering 47.53% of hospital cases are dying.
When the critical cases and those lingering are added, that must surely go over 50%
12.26% of Confirmed Cases are shown to be dying. This is a crude rate, much under-played) and will rise to around 25% of CC's
The confirmed cases death rate is so far beyond useless in the UK, it really shouldn't be mentioned
It was mentioned in the press briefing that although it may be useless as an absolute measure it was useful in comparing the same stats with other countries as they use similarly inaccurate counts. So you can get an idea of the relative progression.
by PieEater » 10 Apr 2020 18:45
NamelessPieEaterJohn Madejski's Wallet The confirmed cases death rate is so far beyond useless in the UK, it really shouldn't be mentioned
It was mentioned in the press briefing that although it may be useless as an absolute measure it was useful in comparing the same stats with other countries as they use similarly inaccurate counts. So you can get an idea of the relative progression.
I’m struggling with the idea that comparing two inaccurate numbers can give you anything meaningful.
Presumably it has been established that they are using carefully matched inaccurate methods to obtain their inaccurate figures ?
I’m also impressed at inaccurate numbers being reported to two decimal places....
by Emmer Green Royal » 10 Apr 2020 21:33
by muirinho » 10 Apr 2020 23:22
PieEaterNamelessPieEater
It was mentioned in the press briefing that although it may be useless as an absolute measure it was useful in comparing the same stats with other countries as they use similarly inaccurate counts. So you can get an idea of the relative progression.
I’m struggling with the idea that comparing two inaccurate numbers can give you anything meaningful.
Presumably it has been established that they are using carefully matched inaccurate methods to obtain their inaccurate figures ?
I’m also impressed at inaccurate numbers being reported to two decimal places....
I see it being as simple as the total deaths reported are just those that turn up and are tested at a hospital, that is quite different from actual deaths that are not tested. Other countries use the same process, so the count of actual related virus deaths may be inaccurate but if everyone is only counting hospital deaths then you have a comparison.
by Snowflake Royal » 11 Apr 2020 09:30
by Royal Rother » 11 Apr 2020 10:02
Snowflake Royal Genuine question.
Why is anyone other than snowmentalstat opening this thread, let alone posting in it?
For me, I accidentally came to TB intending to go to AE.
A mistake I won't be repeating soon.
by Millsy » 11 Apr 2020 10:29
by The Royal Forester » 11 Apr 2020 13:29
2 world wars, 1 world cup A friend told me it's not a virus it's just waves coming from 5G masts. The stats seem to fit this theory as countries with 5G masts seems to have deaths. Use your phone less.
by SCIAG » 11 Apr 2020 13:56
2 world wars, 1 world cup A friend told me it's not a virus it's just waves coming from 5G masts. The stats seem to fit this theory as countries with 5G masts seems to have deaths. Use your phone less.
by Uke » 11 Apr 2020 14:27
2 world wars, 1 world cup A friend told me it's not a virus it's just waves coming from 5G masts. The stats seem to fit this theory as countries with 5G masts seems to have deaths. Use your phone less.
by sandman » 11 Apr 2020 15:20
2 world wars, 1 world cup A friend told me it's not a virus it's just waves coming from 5G masts. The stats seem to fit this theory as countries with 5G masts seems to have deaths. Use your phone less.
by SCIAG » 11 Apr 2020 16:18
sandman2 world wars, 1 world cup A friend told me it's not a virus it's just waves coming from 5G masts. The stats seem to fit this theory as countries with 5G masts seems to have deaths. Use your phone less.
Presumably your friends brain transplant is delayed due to all the people being treated for the virus.
by Zip » 11 Apr 2020 16:53
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